[jonbig04]

Thanks for the input. I'm not a big fan of indicators, though I see the logic behind the ATR one. I admit my targets aren't as refined as they should be and really I should take back the whole 10-13 things. The targets will be dependent on the anchor (larger time frame) chart.

Consider what I'm looking for. I'm looking for trend continuence. Therefor if that happens, it makes sense to simply target a LL or HH of the trend I'm hoping to ride. Typically, since I'm looking at a large TF trend, a LL or HH will equal quite a few points.

[nkhoi]

ATR is just to skew your chance of hitting your target, here is some more thoughts on it
ATR Exits

[AgeKay]

ATR is the exact opposite of trading support/resistance. They also makes no sense generally if you realize that the bars range is arbitrary since it's based on a parameter (i.e. the periodicy).

[jonbig04]

So I think I have all the details worked out in the new plan. I pretty damn confident this will get me my 20-30 ES per month. Its tough making a plan bc real time always presents you with a scenario that you didn't plan for. I've taken a few trades this week some worked out, some didn't (my short was stopped by 2 ticks before yesterdays reversal).

My first plan was basically just an entrance plan. I just jumped in and got a good entry, but I really had no reason for thinking price would continue in my direction once I entered. Add in the discipline to hold for large targets and depending on the volatility, you can be profitable doing JUST this. I was for months and I was meeting my goal. I noticed though that the net was dropping while the VIX did. If I did this now I would probably do decent or break even. With this plan I had the entry but not the direction.

My second plan was just s/r. With these rules I was right pretty often about which way price was going to head (remember calling all the HODs and LODs), but I had no way to enter. Sure I would get lucky and catch one here and there (and that was enough to be profitable), but it was luck whether I would get stopped out or not. With this plan I had the direction, but no good entry.

What I have done is combined the two and more importantly, added patterns. Patterns are really making the difference and I should have used them long ago. Look at the DB (at globex low) this morning or the DT yesterday. I am being conservative and I'm only playing patterns that are with the larger trend. I also only take the patterns that occur at predetermined s/r.

So once price gets to S/R I don't jump in like I used to, I wait. If a pattern confirms then I can be pretty damn sure which way price is headed (price reverses via some kind of DT or DB like 80% of the time). Once I have that information THEN I can use my entry rules.

The reason I'm very confident isn't because of my backtesting, its because I really feel I've addressed the weaknesses in my earlier systems.

That all said I'm gonna kick this thing off tomorrow. As you can imagine I don't get my set up very often. 2-5 trades per week. So on days I don't enter I won't be updating. After all this damn time and effort, I think I finally figured out what to do. Now I just have to do it.

[atto]

So does this mean you're going live (or anyone soon)?

Also, how about you post your charts with s/r levels? Might give us something to follow along with. You entering on stops, or limits?

[jbtrades]

Nice journal. Good luck.

[jonbig04]

Atto, I'm going back and forth on it. Stop placement is the same regardless of entry. I'm not too worried about entries anymore because ideally my stop is protected by the level (s/r, OR, GL). As you can see even from today's chart, they offer pretty reliable s/r.

jbtrades, thank you.

took a stop today for -1.25. notes in the chart.

[atto]

You conceptually know this, but try to internalize it: With a proper edge and plan, the difference between a trade that works or doesn't is only the outcome.

If you leave whether to move a stop to b/e after 2pts to your intuition, then you're always on the hook for the result. Make a plan, be consistent about it, and it gets a whole lot easier. Trades become an exploitation of an edge, and the outcome of any one trade is meaningless.