[sevensa]

Originally Posted by jonbig04 »

I see what you mean, however I think you have to look at accuracy in the context of r/r. The higher the reward, the more difficult the accuracy becomes. i see your train of thought, in that only being correct 20% -a monkey could be right 50% of the time. But all accuracies aren't equal. The reason my accuracy is so low is because i demand such high r/r, not vice-versa. A 50% average accuracy would be easy with different r/r, I simply don't take that way out because I know 35% with 8-10x reward is possible. Could you enter anywhere, in random place and achieve 20% accuracy? Of course, but with with 9x reward, no way. Think about it, if that were the case we would all be rich!

Are you sure? Have you tested it? Looks to me that your assumption is that this is your entry points that allow you to have the results you do, but without comparing them against random entries how do you know that they are really better than random? Look at it another way.... If your entry points were really that good, why are they only 20% accurate?

I am not sure how you did your backtesting, but this might be an interesting excercise to test your system with random entries with the same risk/reward to see if the results are much different than what you get now.

It's been a while since I read the book, but from what I recall in one of Van Tharp's books he showed how even a random entry system was profitable with proper money management and risk/reward. The reason not everyone is doing that might be because not many people will accept 20% accuracy and have the discipline to hold on for the 9x reward.

[jonbig04]

Originally Posted by sevensa »

Are you sure? Have you tested it? Looks to me that your assumption is that this is your entry points that allow you to have the results you do, but without comparing them against random entries how do you know that they are really better than random?

If I could maintain 20% accuracy with 9x risk, entering anywhere we wouldn't be having this conversation because I would be in tahiti on my yacht. As would you, and everyone else on earth. I think you are getting hung up on accuracy, it is only 50% of the equation! Not 60%, or 90% it is 50% of the equation that makes up your expectancy. You have to look at your r/r! this is why i created the accuracy thread. They have to be thought of in context of each other. Without both, nothing can be said.

Originally Posted by sevensa »

Look at it another way.... If your entry points were really that good, why are they only 20% accurate?

Because I'm operating with 9x risk! That was the point of my last post, accuracy becomes more and more difficult the higher your r/r is. That is why you can't look at accuracy alone. Think about it, I could drop my targets by 50% and by accuracy would double. Would that make me or my system any better? No.

Originally Posted by sevensa »

I am not sure how you did your backtesting, but this might be an interesting excercise to test your system with random entries with the same risk/reward to see if the results are much different than what you get now.
It's been a while since I read the book, but from what I recall in one of Van Tharp's books he showed how even a random entry system was profitable with proper money management and risk/reward. The reason not everyone is doing that might be because not many people will accept 20% accuracy and have the discipline to hold on for the 9x reward.

Once again, if I could enter anywhere and maintain 20% accuracy with 9x risk I would be RICH. Taking 90 trades a day and making millions, think about it. As far as my entry points. Are they good? Well my entries levels are good. By that I mean the 0-2.5 point area I'm entering in. Now my surgical entries at those levels AREN'T good, at thats what I have to work on.

[sevensa]

Originally Posted by jonbig04 »

It often seems like people attach their trading ability to accuracy. Its the whole 'being right' scenario. I could double my accuracy right now by decreasing my targets, have I gotten any better? Nope.

I wouldn't be so sure that you wouldn't be any better off that way without more investigation. Increasing your accuracy might also increase your expectancy and smooth out your equity curve. A smoother equity curve and higher expectancy will allow you to trade a bigger number of contracts for similar risk by increasing contracts, which will increase your overall profit. With higher profit targets, your average trade might be $2, but with a lower profit target, higher expectancy and smoother equity curve, you might be able to trade 2 contracts for similar risk as in the first scenario and earn $1.5 per contract, resulting in $3 total profit per trade.

Not to sound like I am picking on you today, but this appears that you are making a couple of assumptions and believe them to be correct without really running the numbers to verify that they are really correct.

[sevensa]

Originally Posted by jonbig04 »

If I could maintain 20% accuracy with 9x risk, entering anywhere we wouldn't be having this conversation because I would be in tahiti on my yacht. As would you, and everyone else on earth. I think you are getting hung up on accuracy, it is only 50% of the equation! Not 60%, or 90% it is 50% of the equation that makes up your expectancy. You have to look at your r/r! this is why i created the accuracy thread. They have to be thought of in context of each other. Without both, nothing can be said.



Because I'm operating with 9x risk! That was the point of my last post, accuracy becomes more and more difficult the higher your r/r is. That is why you can't look at accuracy alone. Think about it, I could drop my targets by 50% and by accuracy would double. Would that make me or my system any better? No.



Once again, if I could enter anywhere and maintain 20% accuracy with 9x risk I would be RICH. Taking 90 trades a day and making millions, think about it. As far as my entry points. Are they good? Well my entries levels are good. By that I mean the 0-2.5 point area I'm entering in. Now my surgical entries at those levels AREN'T good, at thats what I have to work on.

Good luck in your trading and search for better entry points. I wish you the best.

[jonbig04]

Originally Posted by sevensa »

I wouldn't be so sure that you wouldn't be any better off that way without more investigation. Increasing your accuracy might also increase your expectancy and smooth out your equity curve. A smoother equity curve and higher expectancy will allow you to trade a bigger number of contracts for similar risk by increasing contracts, which will increase your overall profit. With higher profit targets, your average trade might be $2, but with a lower profit target, higher expectancy and smoother equity curve, you might be able to trade 2 contracts for similar risk as in the first scenario and earn $1.5 per contract, resulting in $3 total profit per trade.

Not to sound like I am picking on you today, but this appears that you are making a couple of assumptions and believe them to be correct without really running the numbers to verify that they are really correct.

I see your point about the equity curve. I know I would be less profitable with smaller targets, but you're right in that they aren't that far off. The reason I haven't bothered is because I have my R/R where I want it, now I just need to increase my accuracy (which hopefully will be done by better entries). Its easier for my to quantify exactly which part I need to work on, rather than just dropping my targets and R/R. To each his own though. Looking at this shitty month ( so far) entries need some help, but if I can ail them down it just might be the last thing I ever have to do lol. I mean look at the level yesterday. Or 5/15, 5/14, 5/13,5/12, and 5/3- all days where I was stopped within 2-4 ticks of the LOD or HOD. With my smallest target at 9ES, you can see why I want to better my entries on the 5-sec. If that makes sense. I appreciate the input, I really do. But I don't think that lowering r/r is the issue. I dont think my levels are the issue (though they suck sometimes), but rather I think the problem lies in the small risk (1 point stop) and nailing just the right point.

[jonbig04]

took some stops, using some re-entry rules hence the second try

[jonbig04]

looks like I've missed out on 49 net ES points in the last 3 weeks due to my crappy entries. maybe I need to fix them aye? I've decided there is probably no easy way (eg stop increases or more tries). I think I just need to become more adept at following the 5 sec chart. I've taken 22 trades in the last 3 weeks and 7 of them were within .25-1.25 points (most were 2 or 3 ticks) from the HOD or LOD. I don't think that's coincidence and I don't expect to take advantage of the whole 49ES, but obviously that many shouldn't get away. If I can nail these entries...well I think that's my final battle. I attached a pdf of the 7 LOD/HOD trades.

[sevensa]

Originally Posted by jonbig04 »

looks like I've missed out on 49 net ES points in the last 3 weeks due to my crappy entries. maybe I need to fix them aye? I've decided there is probably no easy way (eg stop increases or more tries). I think I just need to become more adept at following the 5 sec chart. I've taken 22 trades in the last 3 weeks and 7 of them were within .25-1.25 points (most were 2 or 3 ticks) from the HOD or LOD. I don't think that's coincidence and I don't expect to take advantage of the whole 49ES, but obviously that many shouldn't get away. If I can nail these entries...well I think that's my final battle. I attached a pdf of the 7 LOD/HOD trades.

Looks to me that if you have waited to get to your resistance/support area and entered one tick below (for shorts)/above (for longs) the low/high of the previous bar and keep adjusting it one tick below/above the previous bar until filled, that most of the 7 trades would have worked.