[jonbig04]

caution, the following attachment contains a long, pointless rant.

[diablo272]

Re the text on that image: This may seem obvious, but if that kind of thing is happening time and time again, there is something wrong with your entry parameters.

[jonbig04]

Yup. Entering is tough, I know I can do it though. They've cost me around 28ES in those 3 trades, but I don't expect to make all that. I expect my stop to get run and for shit to happen. I'm working and have been working on them for a while. I have implemented some new rules that took me a while to test. I had to go and find all my entries and look for clues in price/volume. What I have a set of rules that helps out with later entries. Its tough because you can't simply invent random rules that happen to give you good backtest results, they have to have a solid grounding in PA. Anyways thats what I;ve used to come up with some new rules. I still wouldn't have caught today's move, but I would have caught 10 of the 28 that I have missed, and 10ES is a good start at least.

I'm also looking at my targets and possible expanding them to 10-15 ES. We'll see.

[AgeKay]

Jon, I don't get your entries. You seem to enter on random places. They don't seem to be based on PA at all.

[jonbig04]

really? I would say what I do is pretty obvious haha. The places are predetermined days or weeks in advance. Actually there are only 2-4 places I can enter on any given day. Look at yesterdays chart, really what I was doing should be EXTREMELY obvious.

[sevensa]

Originally Posted by jonbig04 »

really? I would say what I do is pretty obvious haha. The places are predetermined days or weeks in advance. Actually there are only 2-4 places I can enter on any given day. Look at yesterdays chart, really what I was doing should be EXTREMELY obvious.

Hi Jon

Something I have been wondering for while, but didn't want to sound like I am negative about what you are doing as you clearly is putting a lot of effort and thought into this...

I think you mentioned that your accuracy is in the mid 20%? If this is still the case, are you sure your results are based on your entry points and not on your rather big risk:reward ratio? I think you risk something like 1.25 points for 10 to 12 points rewardon the ES? My gut feeling is that you might get the same results with random entries with risk:reward ratio like that. Have you maybe did some testing that you indeed get better results because of your entry points over random entries?

[jonbig04]

I see what you mean, however I think you have to look at accuracy in the context of r/r. The higher the reward, the more difficult the accuracy becomes. i see your train of thought, in that only being correct 20% -a monkey could be right 50% of the time. But all accuracies aren't equal. The reason my accuracy is so low is because i demand such high r/r, not vice-versa. A 50% average accuracy would be easy with different r/r, I simply don't take that way out because I know 35% with 8-10x reward is possible. Could you enter anywhere, in random place and achieve 20% accuracy? Of course, but with with 9x reward, no way. Think about it, if that were the case we would all be rich!

[jonbig04]

It often seems like people attach their trading ability to accuracy. Its the whole 'being right' scenario. I could double my accuracy right now by decreasing my targets, have I gotten any better? Nope.