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RichardCox

Advantages in Trend Trading

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Once we start to look at technical price analysis from an academic perspective, it can be difficult to remember some of the foundational aspects of the practice that got us started in the first place. The idea of what makes a trend creates a basis for most of the more “advanced” technical analysis techniques that follow. So, it is surprising that so many active forex traders dismiss trend analysis as overly simplistic and only worthy of limited attention. But the simplicity of any price analysis method is not something that should be immediately disregarded as a negative, and trend analysis is something that should be used by traders of all experience levels. The ability to understand what makes a trend can bail a trader out of a strategy that is imperfect and help prevent the excessive losses that can break a trading account.

 

“The Trend is Your Friend”

 

The most commonly used phrase in technical analysis is “the trend is your friend.” Whether your strategy agrees with it or not, the phrase has stood the test of time because it does form the building blocks for the way most people view price activity. There are many traders that use trends as an opportunity to work in reverse (using contrarian strategies), but even when thats the case, you will still need to have an understanding of how trends are defined in order to know what you are working against. Here, we will look at some of the benefits of trend-based strategies so that investors can use these ideas (for or against) when establishing new positions.

 

Trends and Imperfect Strategies

 

There will be many cases where an alternating strategy will fail against an uptrend or downtrend. When markets are bullish the majority of the price momentum is set in a clear direction and this is the main argument trend traders will use to base their positions. Trading in the direction of the majority of the market’s momentum allows you to focus on other aspects of your strategy (such as stop loss levels and profit targets).

 

This also allows you an added advantage when using a strategy that is less than perfect. When trend trading, the timing of your exact entry isn’t as important (when compared to contrarian or swing strategies). Of course, this does not mean that trend trading will result in gains in all cases. But when using these methods, you will gain some protection against the inherent flaw seen in any strategy and the exact time of exits and entries becomes less critical because most of the market is already on your side. In recent months, one of the stronger trend instances have been seen in the JPY pairs (as carry trades become more popular). The activity in these pairs has shown significant rebounds from long term lows, essentially suggesting that a new uptrend is in place.

 

Combining Trend Moves with Indicators

 

Once your underlying trend direction is identified (higher lows and higher highs vs. lower lows and lower highs), some of the less commonly used indicators can be added as a way of getting an edge on the rest of the trend trading market (where traders tend to focus on many of the same charting tools). One example of a less commonly used (yet effective) market indicator is the Commodity Channel Index (CCI). Helping remove some of the difficulty of timing entries in a trend, the CCI is an oscillator used to determine the strength or weakness in cyclical trends. The CCI helps traders identify price activity that has reached extreme points (become overbought or oversold) by quantifying the relationship between prices, moving averages, and deviations that are typically seen relative to the moving average. In the attached chart, we can see that rallies are expected once the indicator falls below -100, whereas declines are expected after the reading rises above +100.

 

The CCI cannot guarantee 100% success even used in conjunction with a forceful trend. But when, for example, a strong uptrend is in place, buyers are more likely to enter the market when prices have become oversold relative to their near term averages. One of the biggest problems seen when trend trading is the fact that it is difficult to “buy low and sell high.” Looking for oversold activity is one way of combating this problem as it gives you an opportunity to capitalize on short term reversals within the larger trend. When strong trends are seen, you will usually have multiple opportunities to enter and re-enter, and using the CCI is one way to find these opportunities.

 

Choosing Your Markets

 

If trends make up the majority of market price activity, we will need to take some trading opportunities while dismissing others. The main focus, at all times, should be in finding which price trend will allow you capture the most pips at any given time. If you are looking to implement a contrarian strategy, the argument can be made that there is greater opportunity in a reversal (became the previous trend made prices too expensive or cheap). But this is only the case when a trend has actually reached its end. When you align yourself with the direction of the trend (and choose your markets based on underlying strength), your positions are exposed to larger pip potential and reduced possibilities for losses.

 

Conclusion: Turn the Odds in Your Favor Until Reversals are Seen

 

When looking at trend-trading strategies, there are several advantages that allow traders to turn the odds in their favor and to protect against the flaws that are inevitably present in any trading system. As long as a trend is in place, there is an enhanced potential for gains as most of the market is in agreement with the positions you will be taking. The first step is to identify the main trend direction and, in many cases, this will not be immediately apparent. But when this is the case, it is better to look for other opportunities, as much more money can be made after the most obvious trending moves are seen.

 

The forex market has an impressive selection of available currency pairs to trade (even when using some of the smaller brokers), so there are always alternative options when your chosen pair is not expressing clear trend activity. For this reason, it is important to filter your signals in ways that allow you to only focus on those pairs with the strongest trends (and the best potential for gains). For positions that are already open, it is important to watch for counter-trend reversal signals to either stop out the position or to take profits.

 

At some stage, even the strongest trends will come to an end as uptrends turn into downtrends and vice versa. The best indication of these changes when an uptrend fails to proceed with higher highs and higher lows (momentum stalls too early when attempting new highs, or support levels break). In a downtrend, this would mean prices fails to proceed with lower highs and lower lows (downside momentum stalls too early when attempting to push to new lows, or resistance levels break). Other than this, trading rules can be altered but the central goal is to find the most obvious examples of a trend before any trades are placed.

uptrend1.jpg.cb4de70c9505dca26bbfcee863f13a01.jpg

CCIES.gif.703129d97e4362b1c8ed889e80b983ef.gif

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Trends. Its how to roll.

 

I just posted this in another thread - you may like it. Apparently trends are quite natural.

 

So how to best trade the trend once you have one?

 

My :2c: -- You mention buy low, sell high. Retracement patterns, my focus, help to do that. I just did a webinar for the MTA about that. Truly can help with trend trading. Not to schill my own stuff - other approaches work too - just seriously though, retracement patterns in trends can work.

 

Money management, Exits, Entries. So a big piece of the real work then, as always, is identifying when a trend is happening. Breakouts, Volume, Momentum patterns, Volatility measures, trend logic can all work - some of the time. Maximizing the return then can be achieved (in my view) from using multiple timeframes and automation...The exits can be trailing and targets (i think a mixture of exits is better than one, that's just me).. and money at risk history and now have to be followed keenly - current results can only deviate so much from the past to keep trading the concept... Have to find the balance that works for you and your own style....trend definitely can be your friend though. Nice post RC

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I just did a webinar for the MTA about that. Truly can help with trend trading. Not to schill my own stuff - other approaches work too - just seriously though, retracement patterns in trends can work.

 

Don't worry about that. Feel free to post a link, I'm sure a lot of us will take a look.

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In the attached chart, we can see that rallies are expected once the indicator falls below -100, whereas declines are expected after the reading rises above +100.

 

I would prefer some backtesting results. Charts can be misleading.

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The charts are used to illustrate the point. If you are interested in backtesting results, maybe you should post some.

 

This is called reversing the burden of proof:)

 

I see however that many are turning to trend trading maybe because it is hard to compete with robots in hft domain.

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Many years ago an old market adage implored "never buck a trend." This means if the market trend is up you should never make trades that sell this market short. Of course, this also means if a market is in a downward trend you should never buy until it has bottomed out. They used to say that buying into a market when it is falling is like sticking your hand out to catch falling steak knives. This is a gruesome thought but then again, trading the Forex can end up giving you gruesome results.

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This is an article that talks about adaptation in trend-following. Does anyone know of some adaptive trend following indicator that can match the results of this study? I guess the difficulty is in keeping a high return while reducing the historical drawdown.

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This is an article that talks about adaptation in trend-following. Does anyone know of some adaptive trend following indicator that can match the results of this study? I guess the difficulty is in keeping a high return while reducing the historical drawdown.

 

Hi sergso

I think this adaptive system costs $5000.

Thats excessive

You can buy a book "Trend Following " by Michael Covel for about $20 that will do the job.

regards

bobc

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Hi sergso

I think this adaptive system costs $5000.

Thats excessive

You can buy a book "Trend Following " by Michael Covel for about $20 that will do the job.

regards

bobc

 

Not for buy but it is good to see the general idea and performance.BTW Covel stuff is 30 years old ideas. I don't think anyone can now make money in the markets by reading a $20 book. :haha:

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The joke is on you if you believe that.

 

Price doesn't always determine value.

 

Sorry but anyone who thinks that publicly available information priced at $20 will make any returns is a joker: Better chance to play lottery.

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Don't be sorry. Be educated.

 

About what does and doesn't work.

 

And don't worry about if the price is $20 or $2000 or believe it or not free.

 

I know of many traders who have wasted big money on books and systems probably because they thought they had to "pay up" to get something good.

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Hi Sergio,

I see you come from Greece.

Smart people , the Greeks.All that bail out money and when they default in 3 years time, they'll get some more.

Do you trade for a living ?

kind regards

bobc

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Hi Sergio,

I see you come from Greece.

Smart people , the Greeks.All that bail out money and when they default in 3 years time, they'll get some more.

Do you trade for a living ?

kind regards

bobc

 

I am half-Italian living in Greece married to an Albanian. I trade for 15 years in front of the beach.Making a lot of money. Wait for Italy and France to default. Then America. But the beach will still be here. Ciao.

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a better book IMHO can be found here. I have read and worked on a lot of the other gumpf and while they make good reading I wish i had this book right at the start.

Following the Trend

 

All the tricks, tips downfalls etc are revealed and you can choose to put the hard work in to trend trade of not. For the price of the book this will provide a very cheap education.....and afterwards - you wont need to spend money on a system or a course - the book explains why this is so - you may however choose to spend money on a system that helps you build your own unique system - but thats an entirely different proposition.

Key is that it requires a lot of money a portfolio approach and is not day trading.

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This applies:

 

John Hoagland's Scouting Tip of the Week

 

Part of being a consistent trader is a constant and creative acceptance of the information the market is giving you. No matter what tools or charts you use, the price action has already happened. Through journaling, study, and repetition, traders can develop a sense or intuition for price action in the present tense as well as a recognition for when the other short time frame traders are on the wrong side. At times, catching these traders in a "one sided" position can be the main reason for taking trades, even counter trend. Pit traders always watched for conditions where the pit was "too long" or "too short" as this situation is a catalyst for some good market moves. It's a very popular question for off floor customers to ask their broker, "Is the pit long or short?"

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a better book IMHO can be found here. I have read and worked on a lot of the other gumpf and while they make good reading I wish i had this book right at the start.

Following the Trend.

 

 

If these guys know anything about trends then why did they make a new forum in which they wonder what has happened to trends and why old trend trading methods do not work? Just check it out.

 

Try to backtest his rules:

 

"Enter long positions on a new 50 day high. Vice versa for shorts. Go with the breakout and ride the trend. Nothing else. Signals are generated on daily closing data and the trade taken on the open the following day

 

Exit on three average true range moves against the position from its peak reading. ."

 

These are like very old turtle rules and have not worked for a while other than on purposely selected cases on hindsight. I mean everyone writes a book when his trading method fails. It is irrational to write a book about a method that works. Think about it.

Edited by sergso

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If these guys know anything about trends then why did they make a new forum in which they wonder what has happened to trends and why old trend trading methods do not work? Just check it out.

 

Try to backtest his rules:

 

"Enter long positions on a new 50 day high. Vice versa for shorts. Go with the breakout and ride the trend. Nothing else. Signals are generated on daily closing data and the trade taken on the open the following day

 

Exit on three average true range moves against the position from its peak reading. ."

 

These are like very old turtle rules and have not worked for a while other than on purposely selected cases on hindsight. I mean everyone writes a book when his trading method fails. It is irrational to write a book about a method that works. Think about it.

 

I know about the site, I know about the debate that continually occurs when trend following supposedly dies. Their site also discusses other things as well. If you know about trend following then you will also know that it is reasonably easily executed requires a portfolio and lots of money to get a reasonable return and not pie in the sky BS.

The long term trend following works its just that many dont understand - or choose to ignore - the downsides to it.....and forget its about long term, will have drawdowns and various other issues - and these are pointed out in the book unlike many other type books.

 

The Turtle system and like the one in the book is just an example, and its shown that many systems are reasonably easily built, offer much the same in terms of returns and can be likely reversed engineered.

One of the points made is that you dont need to think about it, and the book is written in a very open manner whereby its entirely rational to write a book such as that - there is no great secret and thats the point. It is not one revealing a 'secret' and that is why it is a good book.

 

And yes I have back tested similar rules, my own rules and all sorts of variations - it gives a particulalar type of returns - that are in no way similar to many who succeed or fail at day trading.....are you saying the turtle rules dont work, no longer work, or just have not worked recently?

 

If you want a cheap education the book is good, if you want a secret revealing book - save your money and give it to the market, if you think that everyone who writes a book only does so because the thing they are writing about does not work when then i would not know what to suggest - read a public forum maybe?

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I know about the site, I know about the debate that continually occurs when trend following supposedly dies. Their site also discusses other things as well. If you know about trend following then you will also know that it is reasonably easily executed requires a portfolio and lots of money to get a reasonable return and not pie in the sky BS.

The long term trend following works its just that many dont understand - or choose to ignore - the downsides to it.....and forget its about long term, will have drawdowns and various other issues - and these are pointed out in the book unlike many other type books.

 

The Turtle system and like the one in the book is just an example, and its shown that many systems are reasonably easily built, offer much the same in terms of returns and can be likely reversed engineered.

One of the points made is that you dont need to think about it, and the book is written in a very open manner whereby its entirely rational to write a book such as that - there is no great secret and thats the point. It is not one revealing a 'secret' and that is why it is a good book.

 

And yes I have back tested similar rules, my own rules and all sorts of variations - it gives a particulalar type of returns - that are in no way similar to many who succeed or fail at day trading.....are you saying the turtle rules dont work, no longer work, or just have not worked recently?

 

If you want a cheap education the book is good, if you want a secret revealing book - save your money and give it to the market, if you think that everyone who writes a book only does so because the thing they are writing about does not work when then i would not know what to suggest - read a public forum maybe?

 

Hi SIUYA,

 

Some thoughts . . . I imagine that one of the difficulties that a lot of the trend following funds have faced (vs the turtle era, for instance) is as follows:

 

- To try and keep things the right side of breakeven when there's not much going on, greater diversification is used. Look at Winton, for example (although I know they're not the purest exponent of trend trading) - there's probably scarcely a single liquid market anywhere in the world that they don't trade. This is fine, generally seems to work, and makes good sense.

 

- When key markets begin to exhibit the more volatile and sustained trending behaviour that has the potential to generate the stellar 50% plus return years, this process is diluted by the extreme level of diversification at work. There's evidence of a slow slide to mediocrity specifically in the outlying returns that this trading style should produce. As an example, take a look at Dunn. They modified the markets they trade for greater diversification a few years back after a string of losses. The diversification seems to have achieved its aim. But then look at 2008, when there was plenty going on for trend trading to profit from - the return was far from outlying. I can only conclude they couldn't properly exploit moves in US equities etc because to much off the portfolio was tied up in obscure markets.

 

If the above is correct, then this would mean that the nature of the returns from this type of strategy have changed, rather than that "trend following is dead"?

 

Another interesting point is that the approach Sergso describes is arguably not trend following: it's breakout trading. Shouldn't a "true" trend follower be always long or short?

 

Finally, I imagine that there are some "secrets" to how such traders operate successfully, but they probably have less to do with knowing when to buy and sell and more to do with things like position sizing, and using interest rate products to generate returns from cash reserves (easier to do when you trade a leveraged/low margin derivative).

 

Kind regards,

 

BlueHorseshoe

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Roswell has been described as "the world's most famous, most exhaustively investigated and most thoroughly debunked UFO claim".[21] Mantell Incident Main article: Mantell UFO incident In 1948, Air Force pilot Thomas Mantell was killed in a crash while pursuing what he described as "a metallic object...of tremendous size".[22]Project Blue Book concluded that Mantell had lost control of his aircraft while chasing a then-classified Skyhook balloon.[23] Some UFOlogists reject Bluebook's conclusion because of its initial suggestion that Mantell was chasing "Venus or a comet".[24] Project Sign Main article: Project Sign The U.S. Air Force may have planted the seeds of UFO conspiracy theories with Project Sign (established 1947) (which became Project Grudge and Project Blue Book). Edward J. Ruppelt, the first director of Blue Book, characterized the Air Force's public behavior regarding UFOs as "schizophrenic": alternately open and transparent, then secretive and dismissive. Ruppelt also revealed that in mid-1948, Project Sign issued a top secret Estimate of the Situation concluding that the flying saucers were not only real but probably extraterrestrial in origin. According to Ruppelt, the Estimate was ordered destroyed by Air Force Chief of Staff Hoyt Vandenberg.[11] Project Sign's final report, published in early 1949, stated that while some UFOs appeared to represent actual aircraft, data were insufficient to determine their origin.[25] Interplanetary Phenomenon Unit Some UFOlogists have claimed the existence of a U.S. government group called the "Interplanetary Phenomenon Unit" allegedly established by General Douglas MacArthur that was "supposedly formed to investigate crashed and retrieved flying saucers".[26] 1950s The 1950s saw an increase in both governmental and civilian investigative efforts and reports of public disinformation and suppression of evidence. The UK Ministry of Defence’s UFO Project has its roots in a study commissioned in 1950 by the MOD’s then Chief Scientific Adviser, the great radar scientist Sir Henry Tizard. As a result of his insistence that UFO sightings should not be dismissed without some form of proper scientific study, the Department set up the Flying Saucer Working Party (or FSWP).[27] In August 1950, Montanan baseball manager Nicholas Mariana filmed several UFOs with his color 16mm camera. Project Blue Book was called in and, after inspecting the film, Mariana claimed it was returned to him with critical footage removed, clearly showing the objects as disc-shaped. The incident sparked nationwide media attention. Frank Scully's 1950 Behind the Flying Saucers suggested that the U.S. government had recovered a crashed flying saucer and its dead occupants near Aztec, New Mexico, in 1948. It was later revealed that Scully had been the victim of a prank by "two veteran confidence artists".[28] Donald Keyhoe was a retired U.S. Marine who wrote a series of popular books and magazine articles that were very influential in shaping public opinion, arguing that UFOs were indeed real and that the U.S. government was suppressing UFO evidence. Keyhoe's first article on the subject came out in True magazine, January 1950, and was a national sensation. His first book, Flying Saucers Are Real also came out in 1950, about the same time as Frank Scully's book, and was a bestseller. In 1956, Keyhoe helped establish NICAP, a powerful civilian UFO investigating group with many inside sources. Keyhoe became its director and continued his attacks on the Air Force. Other contemporary critics also charged that the United States Air Force was perpetrating a cover-up with its Project Blue Book. Canadian radio engineer Wilbert B. Smith, who worked for the Canadian Department of Transport, was interested in flying saucer propulsion technology and wondered if the assertions in the just-published Scully and Keyhoe books were factual. In September 1950, he had the Canadian embassy in Washington D.C. arrange contact with U.S. officials to try to discover the truth of the matter. Smith was briefed by Dr. Robert Sarbacher, a physicist and consultant to the Defense Department's Research and Development Board. Other correspondence, having to do with Keyhoe needing to get clearance to publish another article on Smith's theories of UFO propulsion, indicated that Bush and his group were operating out of the Research and Development Board.[29] Smith then briefed superiors in the Canadian government, leading to the establishment of Project Magnet, a small Canadian government UFO research effort. Canadian documents and Smith's private papers were uncovered in the late 1970s, and by 1984, other alleged documents emerged claiming the existence of a highly secret UFO oversight committee of scientists and military people called Majestic 12, again naming Vannevar Bush. Sarbacher was also interviewed in the 1980s and corroborated the information in Smith's memos and correspondence. Throughout the 1950s and early 1960s, Smith granted public interviews, and among other things stated that he had been lent crashed UFO material for analysis by a highly secret U.S. government group which he wouldn't name.[30] A few weeks after the Robertson Panel, the Air Force issued Regulation 200-2, ordering air base officers to publicly discuss UFO incidents only if they were judged to have been solved, and to classify all the unsolved cases to keep them out of the public eye. In addition, UFO investigative duties started to be taken on by the newly formed 4602nd Air Intelligence Squadron (AISS) of the Air Defense Command. The 4602nd AISS was tasked with investigating only the most important UFO cases having intelligence or national security implications. These were deliberately siphoned away from Blue Book, leaving Blue Book to deal with the more trivial reports. [31] In 1954 an automatic working station for UFO monitoring was installed at Shirley's Bay near Ottawa in Canada. After this station detected the first suspicious event, all data gained by this station was classified as secret, although the cameras of the monitoring station could not make any pictures because of fog.[32] 1956 saw the publication of Gray Barker's They Knew Too Much About Flying Saucers, the book which publicized the idea of sinister Men in Black who appear to UFO witnesses and warn them to keep quiet. There has been continued speculation that the men in black are government agents who harass and threaten UFO witnesses. Also in 1956, the group Foundation for Earth-Space Relations, led by film producer Tzadi Sophit, tested their own flying saucer outside the Long Island town of Ridge Landing. It is speculated in Robertson's The Long Island Saucer that an FBI cover-up silenced witnesses.[33] On January 22, 1958, when Donald Keyhoe appeared on CBS television, his statements on UFOs were censored by the Air Force. During the show when Keyhoe tried to depart from the censored script to "reveal something that has never been disclosed before", CBS cut the sound, later stating Keyhoe was about to violate "predetermined security standards" and about to say something he wasn't "authorized to release". What Keyhoe was about to reveal were four publicly unknown military studies concluding UFOs were interplanetary including the 1948 Project Sign Estimate of the Situation and a 1952 Project Blue Book engineering analysis of UFO motion presented at the Robertson Panel. [34] Astronaut Gordon Cooper reported suppression of a flying saucer movie filmed in high clarity by two Edwards AFB range photographers on May 3, 1957. Cooper said he viewed developed negatives of the object, clearly showing a dish-like object with a dome on top and something like holes or ports in the dome. When later interviewed by James McDonald, the photographers and another witness confirmed the story. Cooper said military authorities then picked up the film and neither he nor the photographers ever heard what happened to it. The incident was also reported in a few newspapers, such as the Los Angeles Times. The official explanation was that the photographers had filmed a weather balloon distorted by hot desert air.[35] 1960s Throughout much of the 1960s, atmospheric physicist James E. McDonald suggested—via lectures, articles and letters—that the U.S. Government was mishandling evidence that would support the extraterrestrial hypothesis.[36] 1970s Jerome Clark comments that many UFO conspiracy theory tales "can be traced to a mock documentary Alternative 3, broadcast on British television on June 20, 1977 (but intended for April Fools' Day), and subsequently turned into a paperback book."[37] Holloman Air Force Base Clark cites a 1973 encounter as perhaps the earliest suggestion that the U.S. government was involved with ETs. That year, Robert Emenegger and Allan Sandler of Los Angeles, California were in contact with officials at Norton Air Force Base in order to make a documentary film. Emenegger and Sandler report that Air Force Officials (including Paul Shartle) suggested incorporating UFO information in the documentary, including as its centerpiece genuine footage of a 1971 UFO landing at Holloman Air Force Base in New Mexico. Furthermore, says Emenegger, he was given a tour of Holloman AFB and was shown where officials conferred with Extraterrestrial Biological Entities (EBEs). This was supposedly not the first time the U.S. had met these aliens, as Emenegger reported that his U.S. military sources had "been monitoring signals from an alien group with which they were unfamiliar, and did their ET guests know anything about them? The ETs said no" [38] The documentary was released in 1974 as UFO's: Past, Present and Future (narrated by Rod Serling) containing only a few seconds of the Holloman UFO footage, the remainder of the landing depicted with illustrations and re-enactments. In 1988, Shartle said that the film in question was genuine, and that he had seen it several times. In 1976 a televised documentary report UFOS: It Has Begun[39] written by Robert Emenegger was presented by Rod Serling, Burgess Meredith and José Ferrer. Some sequences were recreated based upon the statements of eyewitness observers, together with the findings and conclusions of governmental civil and military investigations. The documentary uses a hypothetical UFO landing at Holloman AFB as a backdrop. Paul Bennewitz The late 1970s also saw the beginning of controversy centered on Paul Bennewitz of Albuquerque, New Mexico.[40] 1980s MJ-12 The so-called Majestic 12 documents surfaced in 1982, suggesting that there was secret, high-level U.S. government interest in UFOs dating to the 1940s. Upon examination, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) declared the documents to be "completely bogus", and many ufologists consider them to be an elaborate hoax.[41][42] Linda Moulton Howe Linda Moulton Howe is an advocate of conspiracy theories that cattle mutilations are of extraterrestrial origin and speculations that the U.S. government is involved with aliens.[43][44][45][46] Milton William Cooper In the 1980s, Milton William Cooper achieved a degree of prominence due to his conspiratorial writings.[47] Bob Lazar In November 1989, Bob Lazar appeared in a special interview with investigative reporter George Knapp on Las Vegas TV station KLAS to discuss his alleged employment at S-4.[48] In his interview with Knapp, Lazar said he first thought the saucers were secret, terrestrial aircraft, whose test flights must have been responsible for many UFO reports. Gradually, on closer examination and from having been shown multiple briefing documents, Lazar came to the conclusion that the discs must have been of extraterrestrial origin. He claims that they use moscovium, an element that decays in a fraction of a second, to warp space, and that “Grey” aliens from the Zeta Reticuli star system. According to the Los Angeles Times, he never obtained the degrees he claims to hold from MIT and Caltech.[49][50] UFO Cover-Up?: Live! On October 14, 1988, actor Mike Farrell hosted U.S. UFO Cover-Up: Live!, a two-hour television special "focusing on the government's handling of information regarding UFOs" and "whether there has been any suppression of evidence supporting the existence of UFOs".[51] July 1989 MUFON Convention The Mutual UFO Network held their 1989 annual convention in Las Vegas, Nevada, on July 1, 1989. The Ufologist Bill Moore was scheduled as the main speaker, and he refused to submit his paper for review prior to the convention, and also announced that he would not answer any follow-up questions as was common practice. Unlike most of the convention's attendees, Moore did not stay at the same hotel that was hosting the convention. When he spoke, Moore said that he and others had been part of an elaborate, long-term disinformation campaign begun primarily to discredit Paul Bennewitz: "My role in the affair ... was primarily that of a freelancer providing information on Paul's (Bennewitz) current thinking and activities".[52] Air Force Sergeant Richard C. Doty was also involved, said Moore, though Moore thought Doty was "simply a pawn in a much larger game, as was I."[52] One of their goals, Moore said, was to disseminate information and watch as it was passed from person to person in order to study information channels. Moore said that he "was in a rather unique position" in the disinformation campaign: "judging by the positions of the people I knew to be directly involved in it, [the disinformation] definitely had something to do with national security. There was no way I was going to allow the opportunity to pass me by ... I would play the disinformation game, get my hands dirty just often enough to lead those directing the process into believing I was doing what they wanted me to do, and all the while continuing to burrow my way into the matrix so as to learn as much as possible about who was directing it and why."[53] Once he finished the speech, Moore immediately left the hotel and Las Vegas that same night. Moore's claims sent shock waves through the small, tight-knit UFO community[citation needed], which remains divided as to the reliability of his assertions. 1990s On November 24, 1992, a UFO reportedly crashed in Southaven Park, Shirley, New York.[54] John Ford, a Long Island MUFON researcher, investigated the crash. Four years later, on June 12, 1996, Ford was arrested and charged with plotting to poison several local politicians by sneaking radium in their toothpaste. On advice of counsel Ford pleaded insanity and was committed to the Mid Hudson Psychiatric Center. Critics say the charges are a frame-up. The Branton Files have circulated on the internet at least since the mid-1990s. They essentially recirculate the information presented above, with many asides from "Branton", the document's editor. Philip Schneider of the patriot movement, an engineer and geologist formerly working for the U.S. government, made a few appearances at UFO conventions in the 1990s, espousing essentially a new version of the theories mentioned above. He claimed to have played a role in the construction of Deep Underground Military Bases (DUMBs) across the United States, and as a result he said that he had been exposed to classified information of various sorts as well as having personal experiences with EBEs. He claimed to have survived the Dulce Base catastrophe and decided to tell his tale.[55] He died by suicide on January 17, 1996, after a series of lectures given in late 1995 on topics including the Black Budget and underground alien bases. Others believe that Schneider did not take his own life and that he was actually murdered by the government.[56] In 1999 a group in France published a study, "UFOs and Defense: What Must We Be Prepared For?" Among other topics, the study concluded that the United States government has withheld valuable evidence.[57] 2000s 2003 saw the publication of Alien Encounters (ISBN 1-57821-205-7), by Chuck Missler and Mark Eastman, which primarily re-stated the notions presented above (especially Cooper's) and presents them as fact. MoD secret files Eight files from 1978 to 1987 on UFO sightings were first released on May 14, 2008, to the National Archives' website by the British Ministry of Defence. Two hundred files were set to be made public by 2012. The files are correspondence from the public sent to government officials, such as the MoD and Margaret Thatcher. The information can be downloaded.[58] Copies of Lt. Col. Halt's letter regarding the sighting at RAF Woodbridge (see above[where?]) to the U.K. Ministry of Defence were routinely released (without additional comment) by the USA's base public affairs staff throughout the 1980s until the base closed. The MoD released the files due to requests under the Freedom of Information Act.[59] The files included, among other things, alien craft flying over Liverpool and Waterloo Bridge in London.[60] Disclosure In the early 2000s, the concept of "disclosure" became increasingly popular in the UFO conspiracy community: that the government had classified and withheld information on alien contact and full disclosure was needed, and was pursued by activist lobbying groups. In 1993, Steven M. Greer founded the Disclosure Project to promote the concept. In May 2001, Greer held a press conference at the National Press Club in D.C that demanded Congress hold hearings on "secret U.S. involvement with UFOs and extraterrestrials".[61][62][63] It was described by an attending BBC reporter as "the strangest ever news conference hosted by Washington's August National Press Club."[64] The Disclosure Project's claims were met with by derision by skeptics and spokespeople for the U. S. Air Force.[65][66] In 2013, the production company CHD2, LLC[67] held a "Citizen Hearing on Disclosure" at the National Press Club in D.C from 29 April to 3 May 2013. The group paid former U.S. Senator Mike Gravel and former Representatives Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, Roscoe Bartlett, Merrill Cook, Darlene Hooley, and Lynn Woolsey $20,000 each to participate, and to preside over panels of academics and former government and military officials discussing UFOs and extraterrestrials.[68] Other such groups include Citizens Against UFO Secrecy, founded in 1977. Allegations of evidence suppression Allegations of suppression of UFO related evidence have persisted for many decades. Some conspiracy theories also claim that some governments might have removed and/or destroyed/suppressed physical evidence; some examples follow. On July 7, 1947, William Rhodes photographed an unusual object over Phoenix, Arizona.[69] The photos appeared in a Phoenix newspaper and a few other papers. Angoldmann sachs are run by sociopathic hypocrite lying greedy slimy jew cunts Army Air Force intelligence officer and an FBI agent interviewed Rhodes on August 29 and convinced him to surrender the negatives, which he did the next day. He was informed he wouldn't be getting them back, but later he tried, unsuccessfully, to retrieve them.[70][71] The photos were analyzed and subsequently appeared in some classified Air Force UFO intelligence reports. (Randle, 34–45, full account)[19] A June 27, 1950, movie of a "flying disk" over Louisville, Kentucky, taken by a Louisville Courier-Journal photographer, had the USAF Directors of counterintelligence (AFOSI) and intelligence discussing in memos how to best obtain the movie and interview the photographer without revealing Air Force interest. One memo suggested the FBI be used, then precluded the FBI getting involved. Another memo said "it would be nice if OSI could arrange to secure a copy of the film in some covert manner," but if that wasn't feasible, one of the Air Force scientists might have to negotiate directly with the newspaper.[72][73] In a recent interview, the photographer confirmed meeting with military intelligence and still having the film in his possession until then, but refused to say what happened to the film after that.[74] In another 1950 movie incident from Montana, Nicholas Mariana filmed some unusual aerial objects and eventually turned the film over to the U.S. Air Force, but insisted that the first part of the film, clearly showing the objects as spinning discs, had been removed when it was returned to him.[75] According to some conspiracy theorists, during the military investigation of green fireballs in New Mexico, UFOs were photographed by a tracking camera over White Sands Proving Grounds on April 27, 1949. They claim that the final report in 1951 on the green fireball investigation claimed there was insufficient data to determine anything. Conspiracy theorists claim that documents later uncovered by Dr. Bruce Maccabee indicate that triangulation was accomplished. The conspiracy theorists also claim that the data reduction and photographs showed four objects about 30 feet in diameter flying in formation at high speed at an altitude of about 30 miles. According to conspiracy theorists, Maccabee says this result was apparently suppressed from the final report.[76] On January 22, 1958, when NICAP director Donald Keyhoe appeared on CBS television, his statements on UFOs were censored by the Air Force. During the show when Keyhoe tried to depart from the censored script to "reveal something that has never been disclosed before," CBS cut the sound, later stating Keyhoe was about to violate "predetermined security standards" and about to say something he wasn't "authorized to release." Conspiracy theorists claim that what Keyhoe was about to reveal were four publicly unknown military studies concluding UFOs were interplanetary (including the 1948 Project Sign Estimate of the Situation and Blue Book's 1952 engineering analysis of UFO motion). (Good, 286–287; Dolan 293–295)[17][77] A March 1, 1967 memo directed to all USAF divisions, from USAF Lt. General Hewitt Wheless, Assistant Vice Chief of Staff, stated that unverified information indicated that unknown individuals, impersonating USAF officers and other military personnel, had been harassing civilian UFO witnesses, warning them not to talk, and also confiscating film, referring specifically to the Heflin incident. AFOSI was to be notified if any personnel were to become aware of any other incidents. (Document in Fawcett & Greenwood, 236.)[78] John Callahan, former Division Chief of the Accidents and Investigations Branch of the FAA, Washington D.C., also a Disclosure Project witness, said that following the Japan Air Lines flight 1628 incident that involved a giant UFO over Alaska, recorded by air and ground radar, the FAA conducted an investigation. Callahan held a briefing a few days later for President Reagan's Scientific Study Group, the FBI, and CIA. After the briefing, one of the CIA agents told everybody they "were never there and this never happened," adding they were fearful of public panic.[79] According to one theory related to the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, the CIA killed Kennedy in order to prevent him from leaking information to the Soviet Union about a covert program to reverse-engineer alien technology (i.e., Majestic 12).[80] Nick Cook, an aviation investigative journalist for Jane's Information Group and researcher of Billion Dollar Secret[81] and author of The Hunt for Zero Point[82] claims to have uncovered documentary evidence that top-secret US Defense Industry technology has been developed by government-backed Defense Industry programs, beginning in the 1940s using research conducted by Nazi scientists during WWII and recovered by Allied Military Intelligence, then taken to the U.S. and developed further with the collaboration of the same former German scientists at top-secret facilities established at White Sands, New Mexico, and later at Area 51, allegedly resulting in production of real-world prototype operational supersonic craft actually tested and used in clandestine military exercises, with other developments incorporated later into spy aircraft tasked with overflying hostile countries: the UFO story that evidence of alien technology is being suppressed and removed or destroyed was generated and then promoted by the CIA, beginning 1947, as false-lead disinformation to cover it all up for the sake of National Security, particularly during the Cold War, at a time when (his investigations found) the Soviet Union too was developing its own top-secret high-tech UFO craft. Cook's conclusions, alleging suppression of evidence of advanced human technology instead of alien, together with what he presents as declassified top-secret documents and blueprints, and his interviews of various experts (some of doubtful reliability), was developed and broadcast as a feature documentary on British television in 2005 as "UFOs: The Secret Evidence" and in the US in 2006 as a two-part episode on the History Channel's UFO Files, retitled "An Alien History of Planet Earth", with an added introduction by actor William Shatner. The History Channel program teaser promised "...a look at rumors of classified military aircraft incorporating alien technology into their designs." In 1993, Steven M. Greer founded the Disclosure project to promote the concept of disclosing allegedly suppressed evidence of extraterrestrials. In May 2001, Greer held a press conference at the National Press Club in D.C that featured "20 retired Air Force, Federal Aviation Administration and intelligence officers" who demanded that Congress begin hearings on "secret U.S. involvement with UFOs and extraterrestrials"[61][62][63] In 2013, Sen. Mike Gravel claimed that the government was suppressing evidence of extraterrestrials.[83] Benjamin Radford has pointed out how unlikely such suppression of evidence is given that "[t]he UFO coverup conspiracy would have to span decades, cross international borders, and transcend political administrations" and that "all of the world's governments, in perpetuity, regardless of which political party is in power and even among enemies, [would] have colluded to continue the coverup."[84] In popular fiction In fiction and Sci reality, television programs (like The X-Files, Stargate, and Project Blue Book), films (such as Men in Black and Independence Day), and any number of novels have featured elements of UFO conspiracy theories. Fictionalized elements may include the government's sinister operatives from the men in black, the military bases known as Area 51, RAF Rudloe Manor or Porton Down, a rumored crash site in Roswell, New Mexico, the Rendlesham Forest Incident, a political committee dubbed "Majestic 12", or the successor of the UK Ministry of Defence's Flying Saucer Working Party (FSWP).[85] The novel The Doomsday Conspiracy by Sidney Sheldon includes a UFO conspiracy in its plot.[86] See also Bielefeld Conspiracy Brookings Report Crop circle Flying Saucers Kecksburg UFO incident List of major UFO sightings Magazines of anomalous phenomena New World Order (conspiracy) Storm Area 51 The Disclosure Project Ummo United States gravity control propulsion research (1955–1974) Notes and references   Paul Harris: Cold War hysteria sparked UFO obsession, study finds   Genoni Jr., Thomas C., Peddling the Paranormal: Late-Night Radio's Art Bell, Skeptical Briefs, Committee for Skeptical Inquiry, volume 8, issue #1, March 1998 http://www.csicop.org/sb/show/peddling_the_paranormal_late-night_radios_art_bell/   John F. Schuessler (January 2000). "Public Opinion Surveys and Unidentified Flying Objects 50+ years of Sampling Public Opinions". Mutual UFO Network. Archived from the original on October 16, 2007.   David, Leonard. "Gordon Cooper Touts New Book Leap of Faith". Archived from the original on 27 July 2010. Retrieved 27 December 2016.   Martin, Robert Scott. "Gordon Cooper: No Mercury UFO". Archived from the original on 27 March 2010. Retrieved 27 December 2016.   Dunning, Brian. "Skeptoid #218: The Astronauts and the Aliens". Skeptoid. Retrieved 27 December 2016.   CSI | UFOs and Aliens in Space   Michael Barkun (15 August 2013). Culture of Conspiracy: Apocalyptic Visions in Contemporary America. University of California Press. pp. 85–. ISBN 978-0-520-95652-0.   Barna William Donovan (20 July 2011). Conspiracy Films: A Tour of Dark Places in the American Conscious. McFarland. pp. 50–. ISBN 978-0-7864-8615-1.   Joe Nickell (24 October 2001). Real-Life X-Files: Investigating the Paranormal. University Press of Kentucky. pp. 120–. ISBN 0-8131-7083-4.   Ruppelt: Roswell UFO Cover   The Report on Unidentified Flying Objects, Doubleday Books   Caughey, John; Caughey, LaRee (1977). Los Angeles: biography of a city. University of California Press. ISBN 978-0-520-03410-5.   Farley, John E. (1998). Earthquake fears, predictions, and preparations in mid-America. Southern Illinois University Press. ISBN 978-0-8093-2201-5. Retrieved May 17, 2010.   Documents Dated Prior to 1948 The Majestic Documents   San Francisco virtual museum article   Ghost Rockets: Timothy Good, Above Top Secret, 1988, William Morrow & Co., ISBN 0-688-09202-0 Timothy Good, Need to Know: UFOs, the Military, and Intelligence, 2007, Pegasus Books, ISBN 978-1-933648-38-5 Donald Keyhoe, Aliens From Space, 1973, Doubleday & Co., ISBN 0-385-06751-8 Jenny Randles, UFO Retrievals: The Recovery of Alien Spacecraft, 1985, Blandford Press, ISBN 0-7137-2493-5 Reuben Stone, Alien Worlds, 1993, Longmeadow Press, ISBN 0-681-45414-8 (Contains photo of search for ghost rocket seen crashing in Lake Kölmjärv)   Ghost Rockets: list of External links to sources.   Roswell: Randle and Schmitt Kevin Randle & Donald Schmitt, UFO Crash at Roswell, 1991; The Truth About the UFO Crash at Roswell, 1994 see also Kouff, Kal (August 1997). "What Really Happened at Roswell". Skeptical Inquirer. 21 (4). Retrieved February 5, 2013.   "Brig. Gen. Arthur E. 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Hampton Roads Pub. Co. pp. 210-211. ISBN 978-1571743176.   Canada's UFOs, Shirley's Bay, Ontario, Project Magnet, 1952, Library and Archives of Canada.   "Long Island's UFO plot Trial: A flying saucer true believer must answer charges that he intended to kill three people he believed were covering up alien landings". Baltimore Sun. Retrieved 2018-06-04.   Dolan, Richard M. UFOS and the national security state : chronology of a cover-up 1941-1973. Hampton Roads Pub. Co. pp. 293-295. ISBN 978-1571743176.   "McDonald, 1968 Congressional testimony, Case 41" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2006-06-24.   see James E. McDonald: External links.   Clark The UFO Book, p. 213–14   Clark The UFO Book, p. 144   UFOS: It Has Begun, Producer Allan F. Sandler, Director Ray Rivas, Writer Robert Emenegger, 1976, Featuring Rod Serling, Special Appearances by José Ferrer and Burgess Meredith – VCI Sci-Fi DVD Double Feature: UFOs: It Has Begun / UFO Syndrome, Distributed by VCI Entertainment http://www.vcient.com   see Paul Bennewitz: References and External Links.   Donovan, Barna William (2011-07-20). Conspiracy Films: A Tour of Dark Places in the American Conscious. McFarland. pp. 107–. ISBN 9780786486151. Retrieved 17 September 2014.   "FBI – Majestic 12 Part 1 of 1". An FBI archive containing details of "Majestic 12". Retrieved April 10, 2011.   Peter Knight (2003). Conspiracy Theories in American History: An Encyclopedia. ABC-CLIO. pp. 125–. ISBN 978-1-57607-812-9. Retrieved 18 October 2012.   Michael Barkun (4 May 2006). A Culture of Conspiracy: Apocalyptic Visions in Contemporary America. University of California Press. pp. 86–. ISBN 978-0-520-24812-0. Retrieved 18 October 2012.   Nancy Lusignan, Editor (1 September 1998). Fear Itself: Enemies Real and Imagined in American Culture. Purdue University Press. pp. 415–. ISBN 978-1-55753-115-5. Retrieved 18 October 2012.   Richard Landes (6 July 2000). Encyclopedia of Millennialism and Millennial Movements. Taylor & Francis. pp. 731–. ISBN 978-0-415-92246-3. Retrieved 18 October 2012.   see Milton William Cooper: References.   KLAS-TV: 8 News Now: George Knapp, Investigative Reporter: "Bob Lazar The Man Behind Area 51: NEW: Area 51 Exposed retrieved 21 March 2013   Los Angeles Times: May 6, 1993, Rivenberg, Ray, "Unusually Fanatical Observers Ike Struck Deal With Aliens!"   The Presidents UFO Website: The True Story of Area 51: A Look at the Actual Evidence, Written by Grant Cameron, Monday, 03 October 2011 18:29 retrieved 21 March 2013   "UFO Cover-Up?... Live (1988". Turner Classic Movies. Turner Classic Movies, Inc. 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