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S&P 500 and Dow Jones - Mar Expectation
By
Larry1234, in Market News & Analysis
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By AdrianaLowe
The theme over this last trading week has been one of remarkable resilience. After breaking down from key resistance levels, it seemed that a period of consolidation would follow. But, globally, markets instead rallied with conviction to retest their highs.
I have been sceptical about the sustainability of the rally this year. But one of the most fundamental axioms of surviving the markets is to trade what you see, not what you believe. And what I am seeing is markets that seem to want to push higher across the board, with individual stocks holding up well even when faced with bearish news.
S&P 500
(credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X)
The S&P closed the week strongly at 2,822.48, up 0.5% on high volume, and on the back of its biggest weekly gain since November 2018. US markets seem insistent on forging a path higher despite the overhang of earnings, macro economy news, North Korea, and ongoing China trade talks. I still wait for price to break and close clear of the congestion zone around 2,800 before entering longs, but this looks increasingly like a environment where the only rational positions to take are either to be flat or long.
MICROSOFT
(credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X)
Gains this week were led by tech, with the sector surging 4.9%, and also becoming the best performing sector of 2019. I find MSFT interesting, having completed a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern, rallying in a tight rising channel, and strongly testing resistance (and also its all-time highs) on high volume. But a spinning top candlestick in the midst of overhead resistance, and a bearish stochastic crossover which in overbought territory could translate into a pullback, which could provide interesting entries for longs.
TESLA
(credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X)
A good litmus test for market sentiment is how stocks behave on news. Tesla has held on to $275 support despite its Model Y unveiling event underwhelming analysts; BAML, CFRA Research and Canaccord Genuity all issued cautionary notes. If it gets there, $260 looks to be strong support for a countertrend rally.
BOEING
(credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X)
Boeing continued to suffer the aftermath of the latest tragedy, ultimately having to suspend its entire fleet of 737 MAX planes when the FAA finally followed the lead of global aviation authorities in grounding the plane. Deliveries of the 737 MAX have also been paused. The beleaguered company faces an indeterminate outcome from investigations, bills from airlines affected by the grounding of the plane, as well as potential suits from the families of victims. On Thursday, the US Air Force joined the party. It launched a blistering attack on Boeing, saying that the company has a ‘severe situation’ after flawed inspections of their KC-46 air refuelling tanker aircraft, and questioning the company’s ‘culture of discipline for safety’. [https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/14/politics/air-force-boeing-refueling-plane/index.html] Despite all this, the stock has proven remarkably well supported at $370, repeatedly rallying from those levels on high volume.
FACEBOOK
(credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X)
No company has had a worse week than FB, even within the context of its bad year. The week started with a proposal by Senator Elizabeth Warren to break up FB, was followed by a network outage affecting its Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram services, and then announcements of a widening federal criminal probe into its data sharing practices. Two key executives, Chris Cox and Chris Daniels also announced their departures from the company. A nadir was reached when its Facebook application was used to livestream the hate-driven massacre of 49 people in New Zealand.
Technically, the stock has broken below the bottom of its ascending channel, and key overhead resistance in the $170-173 region looks daunting. There is also a huge gap from Feb 2019 waiting to be closed.
Yet in spite of the weak technical picture and the deluge of negative news, FB closed just 2.13% down for the week, and ended the trading session on Friday well above the lows of the day, forming a bullish hammer. While I have been waiting for a clear break in one direction or the other for a while, as rising channel met overhead resistance, I choose to stay as interested spectators for now.
EUR/USD
(credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X)
Finally, last week I noted the technical breakdown of key support levels in the EURUSD, in conjunction with fundamentally bearish news in the form of Draghi’s dovish speech. However, I was keen to stay on the sidelines, given past experience of how crowded trades tend to turn out. EURUSD didn’t disappoint, as it promptly rose in a stop-hunting rally, which would have trapped any short entries in a very uncomfortable position.
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By Stocks4life · Posted
$AIZ Assurant stock nice breakout, from Stocks To Watch , see https://stockconsultant.com/?AIZ -
By HFblogNews · Posted
Date: 28th March 2024. The US Dollar Strengthens As Economists Believe The ECB Will Struggle To “Hold”. Early this morning, the Fed Governor advised “there is no rush to cut rates” and “the data within the upcoming months” will be vital. The US Dollar Index rises to a 1-month high. The value of the USD will largely be based on today’s data on economic growth, consumer sentiment and pending home sales. Dollar and index traders are closely monitoring tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index which analysts expect will read 0.3%. A higher inflation reading can potentially pressure stocks and support the Dollar. Strong declines in NVIDIA and Netflix stocks pressured the NASDAQ on Wednesday. Though, buyers entered late in the session to boost the overall price. EURUSD The latest comments from members of the Federal Reserve are supporting the US Dollar. The forward guidance between members of the Federal Reserve is mainly not aligned. The Chairman advises the Fed does not need much more proof for the regulator to feel comfortable reducing rates. Whereas the Fed Governor, Mr Waller, advises there is no rush, and he wants to see a few months of data before determining the next move. Therefore, the upcoming inflation and employment data will remain vital and could even push back rate hikes further. According to economists, the Federal Reserve will cut the interest rate on 3 occasions this year, but the timing of the first cut is less certain and may change depending on upcoming data. A positive factor for traders is that EURUSD exchange is not witnessing conflicting currencies. The US Dollar is trading 0.12% higher while the Euro is declining against most currencies. The Euro is trading 0.06% lower against the Pound and the Canadian Dollar and 0.16% lower against the Japanese Yen. Yesterday, the head of the Bank of Italy, Mr Cipollone, said that the authorities were confident that inflation would return to the target of 2.0% by mid–2025. He also supports the lower of interest rate and will use this as a basis for adjusting monetary policy. The Euro is generally under pressure as investors believe the European Central Bank will struggle to avoid cuts if the Fed decide to delay their adjustments. The US Dollar will be influenced by four major economic data releases. The US Final GDP, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales and Consumer Sentiment Index. If these read higher than expectations with the weekly unemployment claims dropping, the US Dollar is likely to witness further support. However, investors should note the main release will be tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index. Traders are expecting no major news for Europe and volatility levels may fall tomorrow as European markets are closed for Easter. Technical analysis currently points towards a continued downward trend. The price is trading below the neutral on the RSI and below the 75-Bar EMA. However, investors should note this will also be dependent on upcoming US data. USA100 The price of the USA100 was under pressure throughout the whole US session but was saved by an increased volume of buyers late in the session. However, a positive point is the components held onto their value. Even though the index fell in value, only 28% of the components declined. Investors will now turn their attention towards tomorrow’s PCE Price Index and the upcoming earnings season which will start in mid-April. The price is now trading slightly above the Moving Averages but slightly below the 50.00 on the RSI. Therefore, technical analysis remains at the “neutral” level and continues to indicate a larger price range. If today’s economic data is positive the stock market can witness confidence and support as this continues to indicate a soft landing. Though, if the data is too strong, it could also trigger a hawkish Fed which is known to be negative for the USA100. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
By Stocks4life · Posted
$IBKR Interactive Brokers stock narrow range breakout watch above 111.16 , see https://stockconsultant.com/?IBKR -
By Stocks4life · Posted
$ISRG Intuitive Surgical stock narrow range breakout watch above 403.07 , see https://stockconsultant.com/?ISRG -
By Stocks4life · Posted
$JETS ETF top of range breakout watch above 20.61 , see https://stockconsultant.com/?JETS
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