Niko´s Backtesting

[Niko 10]

Given the fact that I have a log in which I post what I do during trading hours, I thought that I should also post my backtesting charts, in case someone has something to say about the analysis I am using and perhaps provide some insights that I might be missing.

 

For any visitor it would be like reading my log in fast forward, as I can backtest far more trading days that those I can follow in RT.

 

NOTE: THIS IS ALL HINDSIGHT, BUT I TRY TO IDENTIFY POSSIBLE SETUPS THIS WAY.

Edited March 11, 2013 by Niko

[Niko 10]

Before the open, the market had been falling for several days, and was hitting the bottom of a TR from oct 2011, prices were also describing a strong upswing after being oversold. By the opening. Prices had bounced strongly and where back within the TC, marking a HL and a break of the closest SL.

 

 

My principal level of interest was the MP of the TR which coincided with the SL at 94 and the top of the range which also coincided with the SH at 96.

 

As for things to do:

 

• Buy a break of the MP 93.96
  
• Short a REV around the MP
  
• If prices fail to reach the MP then wait for a test of S at the bottom of the TR for buying a HL.
  
• Short a BO of the TR below S at 92.
  

[Niko 10]

 

At the open, prices were rising after hitting the bottom of the TR premarket.

 

The rise was marked by a TC, at 9:00 after price entered into overbought territory, sellers pushed with strength and managed to push prices to the premarket S at 93.4, that happened to be also the TC MP.

 

1. The first call to action was a HL and a Break of SL at S.

 

2. This first trade could have been short lived or not depending on exit style (not being tested now).In fact in this case It would have been closed and reversed at the LH, but then the question that arises is how to take into account the fact that we were shorting at the MP of the TC. In RT trading I have identified that this kind of behavior means chop, and perhaps this short was not an option.

 

3. We were approaching the TIF R at 94 and there was also a SL from premarket that halted buyers advance. The fact that we were in the chop is something to consider because the attempt to reject R at .90 could have triggered an entry on the short side. The fact was that prices fell to the bottom of the small TR and bounced rapidly to break R.

 

4. A small RET gave the entry here as I officially had a HL around R.

 

5. After another Ret came the next entry (In case I had been stopped for trailing the stop 1 tick below the LSL). From there one, there were no more entries as we were getting far away from S.

 

6. After getting into overbought territory again a strong downswing came and there was a break of DL and the LSL, no LH just yet.This was also the point at which the rise hit the MP of the Downtrending Channel from the 60 min chart.

 

7. The LH appeared the break of LSL marked the short entry.

 

7.a. There was no particular activity that i detected at the break below S at 94, that justified an entry, but if I was not short from 7 this would have been a sad lost opportunity as this was in my TIF plan just did not have a Setup.

 

8.Prices stopped the decline at 93.08, don't have any particular explanation for this other than bottom of a smal congestion area from premarket.

 

9 . Prices rose fast, breaking the SLs and after crossing the 93.4 R area found supply. After the short failed, I defined this as a TR and stopped activating entries based on the setup until buyers or sellers defined who would control the market.

 

10. A break above the top of the inner TR and a small RET (HL) gave the entry here. It did not go far.

 

11. A short entry marked the beginning of another TR. Perhaps this trade should not have been taken in RT.

 

12. This was a long after the break of a small TR, but too close to the R defined in 11

 

13. finally R at 93.7 held, no trade was taken as I thought this was chop. Finally prices broke below the bottom of the TR and S at 93.4, then a RET gave the LH needed to take the short.

 

14. Another short, taken as a reentry as the short in 13 would have possibly be exited after the stop was hit.

Edited March 11, 2013 by Niko

[DbPhoenix 42]

Have you kept track of (a) whether or not oil reverses itself decisively at some point during the day and, if so, (b) when?

[Niko 10]

a and b. Not really, why, do you see something?

Edited March 11, 2013 by Niko

[Niko 10]

 

Before the open, buyers were making an attempt to BO above the Top of a hinge that coincided with the MP of the TR and the MP of the last relevant downswing.

 

Buyers had been able to mark a HL and were breaking above the LSH, all bullish.

 

Things to do:

 

• If prices held above 94.04 buying a RET could have been a good idea, but with the clarity that prices could stop at the top of the TC, if the TC top was taken out there is still R around 96 that could imply a larger move to the upside or an opportunity to short a REV.
  
• If prices did not advance far away from 94 then a short of a LH and the break of a DL could bring a good trade as the LOLR is pointing to the downside.
  

[DbPhoenix 42]

a and b. Not really, why, do you see something?

 

Just that today oil reversed right after 1100 and rose all the way past 92. Since you have these charts, you may want to look at whether or not there is a pattern here. If there is, you'll want to extend your trading day.

[Niko 10]

I just found this reading another thread about ES

 

Trading with indextrader7: Help me find the pattern?

 

I personally have not payed attention to that. Nevertheless, weeks ago we were discussing with Tommer on the chat how oil started to move after we leave the chatroom at 11:00 I thought it was a coincidence so I did not bother to dig deeper.

[Niko 10]

Just that today oil reversed right after 1100 and rose all the way past 92. Since you have these charts, you may want to look at whether or not there is a pattern here. If there is, you'll want to extend your trading day.

 

I will look into it, perhaps I am trading at the wrong hours. :haha:

[DbPhoenix 42]

Not necessarily wrong, just too abbreviated.