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AUDUSD Discussions

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Now that AUD/USD has fallen below 80 cents and below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008 to 2012 rally, the next stop for the currency pair should be the 2007 swing low of 0.7675. As long as AUD/USD remains below 0.8050, the downtrend remains intact.

 

Yes, on the long term. But on the monthly you see it is retesting SMa200, we are nearly at the end of the month, and that candle looks more and more as a hammer.

 

Then on the H4 we just broke a range resistance, even though the pair failed to cross the SMA200. SO yes I remain bearish long term, but I think we may first do a little consolidation (to ,8 ? to the 61,8 fib?)

AU_M.thumb.png.976658fea7a64fd5561b016c0515bbde.png

AUDUSD.thumb.png.1dbd93596e2e13e92491e83a579a827d.png

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Economists warn on Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut expectations

 

Barclays chief economist Kieran Davies brought forward his rate cut forecast from May to April, citing the Australian dollar's failure to fall as dramatically as the iron ore price.

 

While RBA governor Glenn Stevens has previously put fair value for the Aussie dollar at around 75 US cents, it was probably even lower now that iron ore prices had deteriorated further, he said.

 

"With commodities slumping again and the currency only partly reflecting that, you've got a gap opening up again between the currency and the terms of trade and I think that's been a persistent source of frustration for the RBA," Mr Davies said.

 

- See more at: RBA rate cut on the way, experts say

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