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Savant

EURUSD Discussions

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Hi,

 

Seeing the increase in posts on various currency pairs, we have decided to start generic threads, this one being for EUR/USD.

 

All items related to EUR/USD should go in here, *unless* there is a specialized topic or question related to EUR/USD.

 

We will err on the side of caution and assume discussions on the pair should be in this thread.

 

I hope this will keep the forums clean, discussions coherent and synchronized.

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EURUSD - gravestone doji exerting authority this morning

 

After forming a gravestone doji on 12/19/2012, price has been bouncing between the high of this pattern at R1 and pivot. As long as price remains above pivot, the bulls have the advantage and this is why we saw another challenge of R1 today. However, our gravestone doji exerted authority with this challenge and price is once again testing pivot.

 

We need a daily close above R1 or below pivot for direction. See chart for pivot and relevant targets.

eurusdanalysisdaily.thumb.png.ac54807a24432d581ce91df8a55953a2.png

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EURUSD - dark cloud continuation pattern adding strength to gravestone doji bearishness

 

Euro price has completed a dark cloud continuation pattern below pivot which is very bearish as this pattern is adding strength to the gravestone doji that caused the bearish reversal to begin with. We need a close below S1 for momentum based on dark cloud to increase towards S2 and beyond. Of course, should we get a close above pivot, then our dark cloud momentum fizzles out and is negated. See chart below for pivot and relevant targets.

 

This dark cloud has give me reason to remain in my sell on vollatility 101 and giving me the opportunity to tighten my stop. See trade below

eurusdanalysisdaily.thumb.png.b30959065b6e904fab5d8fc6e914c4b5.png

5aa7119b6f118_vollatility101eurusdfloatingtrades.png.46407a68206ed4c11cf0adaac734856b.png

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EURUSD - dark cloud continuation pattern negated - bulls are back!

 

Price negated dark cloud continuation pattern mentioned in previous analysis with the completion of a tall blue candle yesterday that closed in the R1 zone. This is clearly bullish with price now testing R2 at the time of this writing. As long as price remains above pivot, the bulls are in control again. See chart below for pivot and relevant targets.

 

I entered a buy at the close of tall blue candle on vollatility101 yesterday after taking a loss on a sell. Patterns are powerful but when they fail, their failures are just as powerful because you have a predetermined stop that manages your risk and you have the opportunity to get in in the other direction because a pattern failure is usually a clear indication of change of direction.

 

My sell was kicked out for a loss on onepipatatime as well; however, I was already in a buy based on an entry point specific to this strategy and this buy is in a great floating profit at the moment. See trades for both strategies below.

eurusdanalysisdaily.thumb.png.e1f06912719564ad5a62397fdb82fb78.png

5aa7119e2ee7a_vollatility101eurusdclosedtrades.png.ed033b6cec287b069f39d9eb80543353.png

5aa7119e320a0_vollatility101eurusdfloatingtrades.png.ed904afebf421f2fe13fd077e31ab6ec.png

5aa7119e34e5a_onepipatatimeeurusdclosedtrades.png.f1a98e77daeb30ba76b95aa0d0d4aac7.png

5aa7119e37dfa_onepipatatimeeurusdfloatingtrades.png.16e6577de00daa585776bae3275c87e6.png

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echarts?s=EURUSD%3DX+Interactive#symbol=;range=1d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

EUR/USD will continue its bounce and it should touch 1.34 if not today then definitely on Saturday even with the absence of any market events or publications that could affect weekend trading. The US economy is still a problem with the unemployment rate and job numbers turning out to be disappointing. Then we have the elephant in the room which is the debt hanging overhead.

The Euro has appreciated as the US dollar fell with the ECB interest rate remaining unchanged at 0.75%. ECB President Mario Draghi was hawkish in his opening remarks at the press conference that drove the Euro upwards.

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A market event to watch out for tomorrow afternoon will be the US Core Retail Sales figure which can be monitored on Bloomberg/Reuters. It will be released at 1:30PM GMT and a low figure means that the EUR/USD will appreciate. The opposite is true for a high value since the USD is in the denominator here.

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[quotePrice negated dark cloud continuation pattern mentioned in previous analysis with the completion of a tall blue candle yesterday that closed in the R1 zone. This is clearly bullish with price now testing R2 at the time of this writing. As long as price remains above pivot, the bulls are in control again. See chart below for pivot and relevant targets.

IQUOTE]

 

Price is currently testing the R2 zone illustrated in chart that went with above post. I am attaching chart pic again for refernce purposes. Any pull back at this point can be regarded as a buy opportunity as long as price remains above pivot. Targets still relevant.

eurusdanalysisdaily.thumb.png.214a6926dbbd2cecdd800af72f91484d.png

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EURUSD - could dark cause a retracement down towards pivot?

 

Price completed a dark cloud yesterday against R2. Pivot is still at 1.31412 and as long as price remains above pivot, the bulls have the advantage on the daily chart; therefore, eventhough we see a dark cloud here, it is not an indication of a reversal at this point, but merely an indication of a possible retracement that could take place here towards pivot before we get our next push up. Even if price does trade below pivot, S1 is a weekly pivot which has the potential to also send price up should price make it down there. So, for now the bulls are in the drivers seat but based on dark cloud, there is a strong possibility that we could first see a retracement to the downside before the next push up. See chart below for pivot and relevant targets.

 

My buy on vollatility101 was taken out for a profit by the dark cloud and with the completion of the dark cloud yesterday, I entered a sell to take advantage of the possible retracement to the downside. See trades below:

 

On my onepipatatime strategy I am still in my buy and have added a sell based on the dark cloud. See trades below

eurusdanalysisdaily.thumb.png.49fdd1e2c83f5c2dcc3b3a229f89b45e.png

5aa711a2bf04c_vollatility101eurusdclosedtrades.png.bb2e326f2967ed2762276c4513531772.png

5aa711a2c27f5_vollatility101eurusdfloatingtrades.png.36ee7d479e7c16f09cca6047fc161063.png

5aa711a2c60d2_onepipatatimeeurusdfloatingtrades.png.5238f60f61e1a5f6c9b7c3277cd71220.png

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Last day, on 15th Jan; the euro has fallen to the level of 1.3250, just a bit above the axis of 1.3241. This level is supposed to provide a support, and now in the American affair the euro bounced aloft this level. This level is a key, so if the euro closes beneath estimated level, the fall in the euro would be secure to the level of 1.30.

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Hi Everyone,

For yet another day the Usd pairs remain in flux with no clear direction, still testing strong supports.

Currently our outlook is cautiously Long.Here is our technical outlook for Eur/Usd.

If you take this trade let us know how it worked out for you.

Best

TradeCuts.

5aa711c05e762_eurusd27thfeb.jpg.5fcc327f2e5161724a35bfa86ab78a0f.jpg

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The Euro zone stock markets had a rally today; EURO STOXX (FEZ) went up 0.4%, London's FTSE 100 (BCYIF.PK) eased up 0.3% and France's CAC 40 also rose 0.4%.

 

With the central bank comments and the stimulus program that is ongoing in the EU, one wonders how healthy this is going to be for the Euro. We all know how stimulus programs negatively affect currencies and send stock markets soaring.

 

This is exactly what is happening in the Euro zone.

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EUR/USD DAILY as of Friday, 01 March, 2013

Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected a possible point 4 of a WolfWave (21%) pattern for Euro Dollar / US Dollar. This pattern is an expanding triangle and trades from the next point. When the peak or trough will form, usually after crossing or touching the extended line of points 1 and 3, the price will move in the opposite direction towards the target line formed by the extension of points 2 and 4.

The present wave patterns are:

fast amplitude (8%): bullish wave 1

moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 3

Euro Dollar / US Dollar is long term Bullish as the 144 days moving average of 1.31 is increasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 36.23 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 31.63 in the neutral territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at -0.02, in negative territory; this is a bearish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 25.06. This value is in the oversold territory.

Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected an Isolated High at 1.32 one bar ago; this is usually a bearish sign

eur-wave-d.thumb.png.a2d862263d39e1a8bf26ccf304e559ae.png

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Just 6 days back on Monday, the EUR/USD pair was making a technical bounce at a support line that signaled an uptrend. It seems to have hit the resistance, but I never expected it to go to as low as 1.3018. The one encouraging sign for bulls is that the exchange rate is well under the near term 30 day moving average. The 1.3500 level could be the long term resistance and this leaves me with a hunch that trading weekly calls on the EUR/USD makes a lot of sense.

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Euro Dollar / US Dollar broke below the downside support level of 1.31, 1 day ago. This is a bearish sign. This previous support level of 1.31 may now provide upside resistance. Prices having only declined 0.31% since the breakout, the validity of the breakout is questionable. The most recently confirmed upside resistance level for Euro Dollar / US Dollar is around 1.34. Expect prices to have some difficulty rising above this level. A break above this level would be a bullish sign.

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Its going to be an action filled day with the ECB and BOE rate decision due for release later. With that in mind our currency pair for today is the most feared or is it favoured pair, the EUR/USD.

It would be a pleasure to know how your trade turned out. Do let us know.

Best

TradeCuts.

5aa711c629ac0_eurusd7thmar.jpg.917b80033f8a775e57f18f3d3040e000.jpg

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Anybody sold EUR/USD on the NFP announcement?

 

It’s up again and and closed above 1.2980 - a near term support level for me. Actually I made some profits shorting EUR after the NFP release.

 

It was a pretty wild week indeed.

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Anybody sold EUR/USD on the NFP announcement?

 

It’s up again and and closed above 1.2980 - a near term support level for me. Actually I made some profits shorting EUR after the NFP release.

 

It was a pretty wild week indeed.

 

Hello Vinayak:

 

Congratulations on your successful NFP short.:cheers:

 

How are you able to get short after the NFP release early enough to make a profit ?

 

What are you using for a news source that you can get in so early ?

 

I thought that right after an economic announcement as important as the NFP that it was impossible to get a trade order in because there are so many trades being executed at that time. Please explain.

 

Thank You

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My short term trading points for Monday:

 

Buy If the price breaks through the level 1.30085, take profit at 1.3022, stop loss at 1.2980

 

Sell if the price breaks 1.2980, take profit at 1.2923, stop loss at 1.3008

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Forget the technicals for Monday as fundamentals will be the main drivers of the prices at Euro, as debt crisis escalates hittting Cyprus deposits.

 

In the event of a collapse of the Euro & the Dollar how would one stand if long /short?

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Forget the technicals for Monday as fundamentals will be the main drivers of the prices at Euro, as debt crisis escalates hittting Cyprus deposits.

 

 

 

well the TA implys just that!

 

 

 

if 1.3700 has been the fair price since 2009 .. and its Now an unfair price (rejectet) .. in terms of to expensive... .. aswell as . the fact that we made LH LL .. before th fair price got tested ....,,,aswell as the selling pressure is higher atm....

 

its almost obvious that we might test the lows of 1.1900 ... before we go any higher by now

tt.thumb.PNG.08a6434589742471cc2e0faf2988df66.PNG

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    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
    • Date: 16th April 2024. Market News – Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows. Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected retail sales eliciting a broad sell off in the markets. Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a 50-50 chance. Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week’s declines amid the rise in yields. Investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation. There’s growing anxiety over earnings even after a big beat from Goldman Sachs. UK labor market data was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated – The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE. China grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon. Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook. Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Financial Markets Performance:   The US Dollar rallied to 106.19 after testing 106.25, gaining against JPY and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level. Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed. USOIL is flat at $85 per barrel. Market Trends:   Breaks of key technical levels exacerbated the sell off. Tech was the big loser with the NASDAQ plunging -1.79% to 15,885 while the S&P500 dropped -1.20% to 5061, with the Dow sliding -0.65% to 37,735. The S&P had the biggest 2-day sell off since March 2023. Nikkei and ASX lost -1.9% and -1.8% respectively, and the Hang Seng is down -2.1%. European bourses are down more than -1% and US futures are also in the red. CTA selling tsunami: “Just a few points lower CTAs will for the first time this year start selling in size, to add insult to injury, we are breaking major trend-lines in equities and the gamma stabilizer is totally gone.” Short term CTA threshold levels are kicking in big time according to GS. Medium term is 4873 (most important) while the long term level is at 4605. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 15th April 2024. Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict. However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict. New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70. The Yen dip against USD to 153.85. USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce. Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180. Market Trends:   Asian stock markets traded mixed, but European and US futures are slightly higher after a tough session on Friday and yields have picked up. Mainland China bourses outperformed overnight, after Beijing offered renewed regulatory support. The PBOC meanwhile left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged, while once again draining funds from the system. Nikkei slipped 1% to 39,114.19. On Friday, NASDAQ slumped -1.62% to 16,175, unwinding most of Thursday’s 1.68% jump to a new all-time high at 16,442. The S&P500 fell -1.46% and the Dow dropped 1.24%. Declines were broadbased with all 11 sectors of the S&P finishing in the red. JPMorgan Chase sank 6.5% despite reporting stronger profit in Q1. The nation’s largest bank gave a forecast for a key source of income this year that fell below Wall Street’s estimate, calling for only modest growth. Apple shipments drop by 10% in Q1. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • The morning of my last post I happened to glance over to the side and saw “...angst over the FOMC’s rate trajectory triggered a flight to safety, hence boosting the haven demand. “   http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/21621-hfmarkets-hfmcom-market-analysis-services/page/17/?tab=comments#comment-228522   I reacted, but didn’t take time to  respond then... will now --- HFBlogNews, I don’t know if you are simply aggregating the chosen narratives for the day or if it’s your own reporting... either way - “flight to safety”????  haven ?????  Re: “safety  - ”Those ‘solid rocks’ are getting so fragile a hit from a dandelion blowball might shatter them... like now nobody wants to buy longer term new issues at these rates...yet the financial media still follows the scripts... The imagery they pound day in and day out makes it look like the Fed knows what they’re doing to help ‘us’... They do know what they’re doing - but it certainly is not to help ‘us’... and it is not to ‘control’ inflation... And at some point in the not too distant future, the interest due will eat a huge portion of the ‘revenue’ Re: “haven” The defaults are coming ...  The US will not be the first to default... but it will certainly not be the very last to default !! ...Enough casual anti-white racism for the day  ... just sayin’
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