Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Ingot54

To Arm or to Disarm.

Recommended Posts

Mouse you said this: Originally Posted by MightyMouse »

I never stated that guns cause criminals. No post of mine implies that by any means.

 

 

I think you are closer to the truth than you realize. First of all, I notice one thing on this board. Those that are pro-gun concede nothing, and those that are not do concede sometimes. This is very scary.

 

But back to mighty mouse. If you put a roomful of 40 children of all ages in a cabin in the woods for 2 years as a learning experiment. They would go to a nearby school, be allowed 2 hours of playtime,all supervised by adults, but the rest of their time must be spent in a cabin.The older kids would then become "supervisors." (This by the way is the "normal" way most inner city and many middle aged kids are brought up today,no? Now we break this in half. We have 2 cabins.....One cabin is filled with machetes,sex crime movies on TV, different lethal chemicals clearly marked POISON, bowie knives neatly stacked in a draw, books on how to make explosives all over the place, and the materials to do it there as well. Now lets add in a few loaded pistols and revolvers all in a paper bag in the closet.Throw in some normal things such as board games,footballs,and other fun stuff too.

 

Now lets go to cabin#2-There are none of the above items. There are guitars, violins,a piano, books on reaching your goals for the older ones and toddler books with pictures for the little ones. there is nourishing healthy food already prepared sitting in the fridge.The TV only has wholesome sitcoms we had as kids like Gilligans Island, Sanford and son, I dream of Jeannie, Hawaii 5-0,etc, and also board games and the usual kids fun stuff.

 

Now I say that no matter how you divide the 20 kids to each cabin up, the cabin with the guns and other lethal items WILL DEFINITELY BE USED! Even if you skewed the experiment and put all the "good" kids in the cabin with no guns and explosives and all the bad kids in the cabin with wholesome tv shows and no lethal items.

 

WHY? For those of you that are not parents,the answer is this...kids do things, for the same reason climbers climb mountains-"because its there". I SAY AVAILABILITY OF GUNS IS DIRECTLY CORRELATED TO THE USE OF GUNS. PERIOD! Anyone who doubts me, I would wager my life savings that if we posed this question to a panel of experts who know the answer, they would concur. Mighty mouse had it right ,just didnt realize he was standing on the truth all along.

 

For those that dont agree,I will provide further proof:why when you buy a new gun is there fervent, almost pleading in the instruction manual to keep the gun lock always on the gun and the gun in a gun safe or far out of the reach of and i quote "Children and irresponsible adults." Why is that iuncluded if we can depend on responsible people to be responsible around guns?

 

I see I need to go a step futher. Put 20 married men who have never cheated on their wives, aged 35-45(mature enough,yes? in a cabin for 1 year. However in the cabin are 20 very horny and sexy women who were hired for this experiment,sort of like a candid camera thing.

I AM BETTING LONG BEFORE THE YEAR IS UP, 19 OUT OF 20 MEN CHEAT ON THEIR WIVES.WHY? BECAUSE ITS THERE!

 

So the answer to every single post on this thread is this: "Yes the gun will eventually be used by someone. Why? Because its there."

 

Disclaimer: I am a gun owner and have a concealed weapon permit.

 

First off, I would choose to be in cabin 2 as a kid. Sounds more exciting.

 

Secondly, I am 51 and have been married for 20 years and have met, worked with, and been tempted by a lot of good looking girls and have never cheated. Me having sex with someone gives someone complete control over the future direction of my life. No one gets that control and I am certainly not going to trade it for a 3 minute impulse. 3 minutes is being boastful.

 

Vince most murders are committed by friends, family, and acquaintances. Stats have been about 80% ( of all murders are from F,F,and A) for a long time. Changing gun laws would only marginally decrease the number of deaths in the friends family and acquaintances group. I read somewhere a long time before this debate that crimes of passion are impossible to control and it made sense. The other 20% that get murdered, would likely be the most impacted by a change in gun laws simply because it is harder to kill someone without a gun. It is more difficult to mistakenly kill an unintended target without a gun. In my mind any improvement is a move in the right direction.

 

A gun will be used when there is a reason for it to be used. The reason can be rational or irrational. Adam Lanza, Son of Sam, the columbine kids, ,someone defending themselves, a target shooter, a hunter, a thief, and a drug addict needing money right away all have reasons to use a gun.

 

I suspect the rational and irrational reasons in the above list are evident and agreeable to both pro and con gun control people on this thread. What is not agreeable is the solutions to keep guns out of the hands of the irrational persons who have access to guns either legally or illegally obtained.

 

Adding guns is a crazy solution authored by individuals who have a stake in the supply of guns. Banning all guns is impossible and not anything I have ever suggested either. I also don't ever think our govt will overthrow us by force so needing guns for that reason seems somewhat surreal, but persons a long time ago who were a lot more experienced in such matters and smarter than I made it a law and I have no desire to chop up a law simply because the threat does not appear to exist today.

 

Living near Newtown and driving through it everyday is a constant reminder that something has to give. These people, as a community, are in agony. Decent people do not need to lose their rights and should not be threatened by an attempt to improve safety of innocent people.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Mr. LaPierre’s comments drew a sharp rebuke from Carol Foyler, a politician-control advocate who ........

 

I also am assuming by the silence on this thread about it, no one can believe their eyes.Or is this too much information for most to grasp. This is one of the most important posts on this thread!!!! Something is not quite right in The land of Oz, is it Dorothy? :confused:

Google Andy Borowitz. I already knew who he is but I google everytime when I'm not aware of the source or validity of something.

 

"Truth is stranger than fiction" and vice versa and sometimes one and the same.

 

BTW I was silent till now because I just read it - a little thing called trading .... and life gets in the way sometimes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[Mouse, what is happening in Newtown that they are in such agony. You are quite correct in what you say about those stats. Im just saying the other 20% and thats millions over a decade....can be lowered with rational thinking...not just stats and NRA controlled politicians who make speaches but never declare if the NRA supports them in any way.....or worse,if they support the NRA! the NRA needs to be disbanded the same as the NAACP. Both had a use............. at one time. Now both are money machines. In fact, I think every politician supporting them should be investigated if not impeached. Id settle for investigate. They dont impeach politicians anymore,do they mouse? -)

 

GREAT POST!

 

And yes, I am a gun owner, albeit a rational one. And no, I have not taken any loans on my house to buy ammo or weapons, and no I do not have any idea how to survive in the woods.:crap:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Reducing the “lethalness of criminals” is a quality aim that appeals to all of us (except maybe S&Mtrx ;) ;) )

 

 

 

 

AVAILABILITY OF GUNS IS DIRECTLY CORRELATED TO THE USE OF GUNS.
Vince50

 

Actually, that’s not really saying much – especially to this issue. Availability of anything is correlated to the quantity of its use. That can be generalized.

But, in many of the to Disarms arguments ( and sometimes To Arms’ too ) we see 'availability' magically being spread to the qualities of use and then, with even more magic, on to a separate axis of ‘intentions’.

Jumping axis then acting / arguing ‘as if’ we didn’t is faking it … let’s not let people get away with that on either side of this argument.

 

Humans and individual variability in propensity to use force.

 

Even if you did thousands of cabins with your scenarios, I hold that the important variable would not be the count and availability of lethal objects. The variable that would far overshadow supply of lethal objects would be the distribution / occurrence and variable severity of INDIVIDUALS who would readily resort to force that got dropped into these ‘cabins’.

It is the counts/distributions of those who would go over the threshold in their propensity of using force to get what they want PLUS the count of those in the cabins who would resist the use of force over them that would be the extremely superior ‘predictor’ of “USE” of objects as weapons.

 

This is just more of the accumulating pile of prepositions we’re subjected to in this thread – actually this whole forum - that simply don’t transfer to the real world. Misused statistics, alternated with inflammatory ‘reports’ of individual atrocious isolated events wheeled out in support, etc. etc. etc. don't get at the real issues and don’t describe or account for the ‘guitar cabins’ that happened to get members who would resort to violence. They also try to omit ‘via pretend scenarios’, how many guitars would get smashed over heads in perping and in self defense in the 'art supply cabins'. A few of us, at least, would hope that the available ‘art’ objects in those ‘cabins’ would be functionally ‘misused’ in self defense, lethally if necessary, to vanquish the ‘propensity to violent force’ individuals who got dropped into that ‘cabin’ … even if it did shatter MM's already "suddenly upset" dreams and hopes for significantly fewer ‘incident reports’ and lower “USE” statistics from the ‘art supplies cabins’.

 

So, using examples of utopia like isolated ‘cabins in the woods’ world where weapons are not ‘needed’, are only illustrative if you could possibly control for the ‘propensity to violence’ individuals. MM and those who lik his posts. are focused only on trying to control for access to ‘ready lethality’ instead of focusing on the realities of ‘propensity to violent force’ individuals. But, in reality, if you could set up a huge, significant sample of such 'cabins', here’s what you would end up with:

In both the ‘lethal objects’ cabins and the ‘artsy’ cabins, the ones with quantities of ‘propensity to violent force’ individuals will have more violent force episodes, and tragically, deaths

AND the ones where those where the ‘propensity to violent force’ individuals win will continue to have more violence, and tragically, deaths

AND the ones where the ‘propensity to violent force’ individuals are defeated/eliminated will revert to low violence and, thankfully, fewer tragic deaths.

 

… really the only redeeming feature of these isolated ('prison'? / ) ‘cabin’ pretend world ‘examples’ is that they illustrate even less outside ‘intervention’ than is available in 20,000 + laws and in a 911 call with a 10 to 120 minute waiting period…

 

Since they apparently feel helpless in controlling for the randomlike appearances of ‘propensity to violent force’ individuals that show up in (and in between) ‘cabins’ in the real world, MM and co. mistakenly thinks, and posts and posts and posts, that controlling for the lethality of objects will ‘do something, anything!’… while all along…

By Far, the most effective way to reduce the “lethalness of criminals” is to increase the lethalness of their potential victims.

Match criminals' threats as effectively / as closely as possible and their "USE" will go way down!

 

It's not just you Vince. All of us have to be careful and not get sucked into the reactive brain games... especially when those games can be "USED", then denied with a simple " I never... "

 

 

 

 

 

"The irony is, if you're willing to kill a perpetrator, you probably won't have to." Massad Ayoob

Edited by zdo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Humans and individual variability in propensity to use force.

 

Even if you did thousands of cabins with your scenarios, I hold that the important variable would not be the count and availability of lethal objects. The variable that would far overshadow supply of lethal objects would be the distribution / occurrence and variable severity of INDIVIDUALS who would readily resort to force that got dropped into these ‘cabins’.

.............

In both the ‘lethal objects’ cabins and the ‘artsy’ cabins, the ones with quantities of ‘propensity to violent force’ individuals will have more violent force episodes, and tragically, deaths

AND the ones where those where the ‘propensity to violent force’ individuals win will continue to have more violence, and tragically, deaths

AND the ones where the ‘propensity to violent force’ individuals are defeated/eliminated will revert to low violence and, thankfully, fewer tragic deaths.

 

So basically humans are inherently violent - or those that are are willing to use any force necessary/available regardless of the rules....

If so, then would it still not be better to reduce the number of options available to them - in an ideal world - all of them.....including governments.....

 

OR does this only apply to a select few - ie; those in the USA.

Extend this to the rest of the world.

Extend this to those communities who feel they are being attacked - are they not also allowed to arm themselves to protect themselves from those who they percieve as aggressors OR are actively being attacked. Do you support their rights as humans as well?

 

Or is this a leap too far :) -- the fantasy of one side

 

 

… really the only redeeming feature of these isolated ('prison'? / ) ‘cabin’ pretend world ‘examples’ is that they illustrate even less outside ‘intervention’ than is available in 20,000 + laws and in a 911 call with a 10 to 120 minute waiting period…

 

Since they apparently feel helpless in controlling for the randomlike appearances of ‘propensity to violent force’ individuals that show up in (and in between) ‘cabins’ in the real world, MM and co. mistakenly thinks, and posts and posts and posts, that controlling for the lethality of objects will ‘do something, anything!’… while all along…

By Far, the most effective way to reduce the “lethalness of criminals” is to increase the lethalness of their potential victims.

Match criminals' threats as effectively / as closely as possible and their "USE" will go way down!

 

"The irony is, if you're willing to kill a perpetrator, you probably won't have to." Massad Ayoob

 

Zdo - I and i think many others get your point. Ideally many of us will never experience much violence, or need to defend from it. If I needed to defend myself, I would rather firearms not be involved.

If it becomes an arms race, then regardless of what many with weapons think - having the ability, having the balls, having the opportunity to really be able to defend them selves might be the fantasy of the other side.

(I have killed plenty of animals on the farm - and have no compulsion to do it for fun, but have no problems doing it. Not many others can....and these are animals.)

 

The other thing that i think MM and others also probably would prefer to keep in check, something that is clearly impossible :) the attitutudes of some that it is ok to resort to violence as a first resort.....we see some of these here.

Too often these merely mask another sort of implementation of their own moral codes/ agendas on others, and as they too are only human would by the 'natural law of cabins in the woods' want to implement their ways on others through the use of force. Usually the reason for force - even if its ego driven.

 

"By Far, the most effective way to reduce the “lethalness of criminals” is to increase the lethalness of their potential victims" ----- this might even the playing field a little, but this is the leap you make that many of us just dont agree with.

This seems to have the assumption that every criminal will be intent on using lethal force - many are just opportunisitc. If they know their targets are armed - are they not more likely to use 'preemptive strikes' - they already break the laws, so whats another one?

(This does not just apply to individual criminals :))

 

.........

By the way, i enjoyed my trip to the US this time, never felt threatened or fearful. Only problem was the knee injury that was self inflicted (snowboarding and no tree involved) and the flu that was natural.

(ps Zdo - one of your posts quotes a General or Major - i have seen that before and i think its incorrectly attributed. Plus even some of those premises can be disputed - I cant believe I am even engaging in this thread again :doh: - more out of curiosity than anything I imagine)

Edited by SIUYA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

35 Guns Stolen From Siloam Springs Pawn Shop | 5NEWSOnline.com ? Ft. Smith, Fayetteville, Bentonville News & Weather from KFSM and KXNW Television

 

shouldn't be allowed to sell guns

 

Erie police are searching for a burglar who stole guns from a westside residence this morning.

 

The burglary happened shortly after 11:30 a.m. in the 2900 block of Liberty Street. Three handguns and an assault rifle were reported stolen from the residence. The rifle was later found in a backyard, police said.

 

The burglar was described as a white male with light brown hair who was about 5 feet 10 inches tall and was wearing a dark-colored hood, according to police.

 

In both cases law abiding citizens had their guns stolen.

 

We can guess that the guns would be sold to bad guys.

 

The stream of stolen guns is endless.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbYNa_OzrKM]Sandy Hook Students & Jennifer Hudson sing at the Super Bowl 2013 - America The Beautiful - YouTube[/ame]

 

Some of the kids that did not get killed by weak American Gun Control Laws.

 

Its not that hard to imagine what the unintended consequences of additional firearms would be.

 

What are the unintended consequences of less firearms? Less, not none.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well the coldblooded killer in the school bus hostage crisis in dead. But people still dont get it do they? They passed a law in alabama making it illegal to board a school bus. As if this law would have stopped this murderer from boarding the bus. What might would have stopped him is an armed bus driver or an armed guard on the bus. The man was a criminal by definition and another law would not have stopped him at all. People take all the wrong measures trying to feel secure. Only a good guy with a gun can stop a bad guy with a gun. When will people learn this? We think in america that laws will stop the lawless. It wont. See, what has happened is, we are entering a stage of evil and lawlessness that we have never seen in america before. It has been going on for some time in latin america. Now it is getting here. We dont know how to deal with it. We think another law will stop it. We think we are a nation governed by the rule of law. People that break laws are lawless. They could care less about another law. However, most are scared of guns and armed law abiding citizens.

Edited by Patuca

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well the coldblooded killer in the school bus hostage crisis in dead. But people still dont get it do they? They passed a law in alabama making it illegal to board a school bus. As if this law would have stopped this murderer from boarding the bus. What might would have stopped him is an armed bus driver or an armed guard on the bus. The man was a criminal by definition and another law would not have stopped him at all. People take all the wrong measures trying to feel secure. Only a good guy with a gun can stop a bad guy with a gun. When will people learn this? We think in america that laws will stop the lawless. It wont. See, what has happened is, we are entering a stage of evil and lawlessness that we have never seen in america before. It has been going on for some time in latin america. Now it is getting here. We dont know how to deal with it. We think another law will stop it. We think we are a nation governed by the rule of law. People that break laws are lawless. They could care less about another law. However, most are scared of guns and armed law abiding citizens.

 

Problem is Patuca - what alternative are you proposing?

How do you define good and bad, what are you going to propose the bad are 'controlled' with.

You seem to be proposing an America that is a nation governed by the rule of the gun.

The NRA seems to represent arms manufacturers these days with its one stop solution

 

These are serious questions that I think require answering.....

 

(I know you think that you dont give a sh.t what others think of you - what governs you? what rues do you adhere to, and what do you do if people disagree with you?)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well the coldblooded killer in the school bus hostage crisis in dead. But people still dont get it do they? They passed a law in alabama making it illegal to board a school bus. As if this law would have stopped this murderer from boarding the bus. What might would have stopped him is an armed bus driver or an armed guard on the bus. The man was a criminal by definition and another law would not have stopped him at all. People take all the wrong measures trying to feel secure. Only a good guy with a gun can stop a bad guy with a gun. When will people learn this? We think in america that laws will stop the lawless. It wont. See, what has happened is, we are entering a stage of evil and lawlessness that we have never seen in america before. It has been going on for some time in latin america. Now it is getting here. We dont know how to deal with it. We think another law will stop it. We think we are a nation governed by the rule of law. People that break laws are lawless. They could care less about another law. However, most are scared of guns and armed law abiding citizens.

 

I agree with you on the new law. The law is no deterrent for someone on a death wish. Pretty much nothing is a deterrent when someone is prepared to die.

 

Removing available guns from the system would help somewhat, making it more difficult to obtain guns by people on a death wish. On a death wish, we can assume that the individual would find alternatives of which the options are endless.

 

A lot of your posts have an underlying tone of euphoric invincibility; that when you own or carry a gun, you are invincible to being killed by a gun because you have one. As if a gun will keep you from getting killed or shot. If 2 people meet with guns and a shot is fired, then someone likely gets shot. In your mind it is never you. An armed bus driver would certainly have a better chance of defending himself, but if the perp knew he was armed, then all it meant was that the perp had to draw and shoot quickly before the bus driver had a chance. Keep in mind, the perp is on a death wish Armed or not, the bus driver would likely end up dead anyway.

 

Personally, I wouldn't let my child get onto a bus that had a $10 an hour employee who is made to carry a gun. I suspect that the armed bus drivers would, from time to time, share the same euphoric feeling that you do when you hold a gun.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't know if this has been posted - I no longer follow the thread.

 

I was sent this link by a colleague, and thought it might wake up a few people as to how we are educating the masses to think the gun is the answer to everything!

 

btw ... this is the "clean" version ... only a sicko would want to see the original!

 

The industry that has made millions from gun violence, is standing firm in demanding a plan to change all of this.

 

You?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Don't know if this has been posted - I no longer follow the thread.

 

I was sent this link by a colleague, and thought it might wake up a few people as to how we are educating the masses to think the gun is the answer to everything!

 

btw ... this is the "clean" version ... only a sicko would want to see the original!

 

The industry that has made millions from gun violence, is standing firm in demanding a plan to change all of this.

 

You?

 

The hypocrisy is that those actors take parts in violent moves, yet they cry mercy afterwards.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I agree with you on the new law. The law is no deterrent for someone on a death wish. Pretty much nothing is a deterrent when someone is prepared to die.

 

Removing available guns from the system would help somewhat, making it more difficult to obtain guns by people on a death wish. On a death wish, we can assume that the individual would find alternatives of which the options are endless.

 

A lot of your posts have an underlying tone of euphoric invincibility; that when you own or carry a gun, you are invincible to being killed by a gun because you have one. As if a gun will keep you from getting killed or shot. If 2 people meet with guns and a shot is fired, then someone likely gets shot. In your mind it is never you. An armed bus driver would certainly have a better chance of defending himself, but if the perp knew he was armed, then all it meant was that the perp had to draw and shoot quickly before the bus driver had a chance. Keep in mind, the perp is on a death wish Armed or not, the bus driver would likely end up dead anyway.

 

Personally, I wouldn't let my child get onto a bus that had a $10 an hour employee who is made to carry a gun. I suspect that the armed bus drivers would, from time to time, share the same euphoric feeling that you do when you hold a gun.

i imagine that the deceased heroic bus driver wish he would have had a gun and at least had a chance at survival. As it was he had to face evil with nothing but his physical body. A gun would have given him a chance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

(I know you think that you dont give a sh.t what others think of you - what governs you? what rues do you adhere to, and what do you do if people disagree with you?)

i smile and get dramatic..but agree with their right to disagree.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
i smile and get dramatic..but agree with their right to disagree.

 

congratulations for that.....but what alternatives are you suggesting if you dont want laws?

 

Now I am not saying that there are not too many laws or more the point - often the laws could be termed inefficient and maybe need to be continually scrapped and rewritten for the times, however - it gets a little confusing when people talk about criminals and laws and then say that we think we are governed by laws when we are not.

 

Patuca - you have already shown in the puzzles page with that riddle that you would prefer to - teach everyone a lesson, wanted to manipulate the scene to your own ways of doing things, could not even be bothered to count the number of uncles registered when you set the rules, release a riddle that does not conform with normal grammar (using Yet instead of yet - a proper name v an adverb or conjunction) and hence in writing it (as opposed to verbal communication) is deliberately deceiving- so its kinda hard to take you too seriously when you say such things and yet do things which a tyrant might do. :) (or is Yet the tyrant?)

should the call be more effective laws, new laws, no laws, revised laws....

Which is why I ask - what alternatives are you suggesting?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

“Too honest?”

:wheresthatfalldownrolloverlaughingsmiley:

 

poignant thing is - this pretty much sums up whole this thread in about 1 minute

 

 

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWax4i1O18s&feature=player_embedded]Caught On Camera ~ Joe Biden Admits Gun Control Will Not Stop Mass Shootings Or Save Lives - YouTube[/ame]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
“Too honest?”

:wheresthatfalldownrolloverlaughingsmiley:

 

poignant thing is - this pretty much sums up whole this thread in about 1 minute

 

 

 

Right, it is a great case for not trying to do anything too. Right? Since we can't stop all mass shootings we shouldn't bother to try to stop any of them.

 

Throughout this thread I have learned how to think like a gun nut. I feel conservative now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It might sum up the debate for you Zdo - too bad there are others who might have different opinions. :) or maybe its just that stinking lib/conservative media stirring things up again.

 

i guess that depends on if you think there is a difference between saying

"we have a moral obligation to do everything in our power to diminish the prospects of it happening again"

Or

that the laws will "nothing we are going to do is going to fundamentally alter, or eliminate the possibility...... or guarantee that we will bring down " the numbers.

 

on one hand you could shrug your shoulders and say lets not do anything as we cant eliminate all possibilities, or you could say lets try and do something - and that includes those wanting to arm more citizens, or yourself that includes wanting to do things - like arming yourself - that might diminish the prospects of certain things happening, but it still does not eliminate other possibilities....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 19th April 2024. Weekly Commodity Market Update: Oil Prices Correct and Supply Concerns Persist.   The ongoing developments in the Middle East sparked a wave of risk aversion and fueled supply concerns and investors headed for safety. Hopes for imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve diminish while attention is now turning towards the demand outlook. The Gold price hit a high of $2417.89 per ounce overnight. Sentiment has already calmed down again and bullion is trading at $2376.50 per ounce as haven flows ease. Oil prices initially moved higher as concern over escalating tensions with the WTI contract hit a session high of $85.508 per barrel overnight, before correcting to currently $81.45 per barrel. Oil Prices Under Pressure Amid Middle East Tensions Last week, commodity indexes showed little movement, with Oil prices undergoing a slight correction. Meanwhile, Gold reached yet another record high, mirroring the upward trend in cocoa prices. Once again today, USOil prices experienced a correction and has remained under pressure, retesting the 50-day EMA at $81.00 as we moving into the weekend. Hence, despite the Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran, sentiments stabilized following reports suggesting a measured response aimed at avoiding further escalation. Brent crude futures witnessed a more than 4% leap, driven by concerns over potential disruptions to oil supplies in the Middle East, only to subsequently erase all gains. Similarly with USOIL, UKOIL hovers just below $87 per barrel, marginally below Thursday’s closing figures. Nevertheless, volatility is expected to continue in the market as several potential risks loom:   Disruption to the Strait of Hormuz: The possibility of Iran disrupting navigation through the vital shipping lane, is still in play. The Strait of Hormuz serves as the Persian Gulf’s primary route to international waters, with approximately 21 million barrels of oil passing through daily. Recent events, including Iran’s seizure of an Israel-linked container ship, underscore the geopolitical sensitivity of the region. Tougher Sanctions on Iran: Analysts speculate that the US may impose stricter sanctions on Iranian oil exports or intensify enforcement of existing restrictions. With global oil consumption reaching 102 million barrels per day, Iran’s production of 3.3 million barrels remains significant. Recent actions targeting Venezuelan oil highlight the potential for increased pressure on Iranian exports. OPEC Output Increases: Despite the desire for higher prices, OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have constrained output in recent years. However, sustained crude prices above $100 per barrel could prompt concerns about demand and incentivize increased production. The OPEC may opt to boost oil output should tensions escalate further and prices surge. Ukraine Conflict: Amidst the focus on the Middle East, markets overlooking Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Potential retaliatory strikes by Kyiv on Russian oil infrastructure could impact exports, adding further complexity to global oil markets.   Technical Analysis USOIL is marking one of the steepest weekly declines witnessed this year after a brief period of consolidation. The breach below the pivotal support level of 84.00, coupled with the descent below the mid of the 4-month upchannel, signals a possible shift in market sentiment towards a bearish trend reversal. Adding to the bearish outlook are indications such as the downward slope in the RSI. However, the asset still hold above the 50-day EMA which coincides also with the mid of last year’s downleg, with key support zone at $80.00-$81.00. If it breaks this support zone, the focus may shift towards the 200-day EMA and 38.2% Fib. level at $77.60-$79.00. Conversely, a rejection of the $81 level and an upside potential could see the price returning back to $84.00. A break of the latter could trigger the attention back to the December’s resistance, situated around $86.60. A breakthrough above this level could ignite a stronger rally towards the $89.20-$90.00 zone. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past perfrmance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 18th April 2024. Market News – Stock markets benefit from Dollar correction. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Technical buying, bargain hunting, and risk aversion helped Treasuries rally and unwind recent losses. Yields dropped from the recent 2024 highs. Asian stock markets strengthened, as the US Dollar corrected in the wake of comments from Japan’s currency chief Masato Kanda, who said G7 countries continue to stress that excessive swings and disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were harmful for economies. US Stockpiles expanded to 10-month high. The data overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented recent attack. President Joe Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum.   Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex stumbled, falling to 105.66 at the end of the day from the intraday high of 106.48. It lost ground against most of its G10 peers. There wasn’t much on the calendar to provide new direction. USDJPY lows retesting the 154 bottom! NOT an intervention yet. BoJ/MoF USDJPY intervention happens when there is more than 100+ pip move in seconds, not 50 pips. USOIL slumped by 3% near $82, as US crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels last week, hitting the highest level since last June, while gauges of fuel demand declined. Gold strengthened as the dollar weakened and bullion is trading at $2378.44 per ounce. Market Trends:   Wall Street closed in the red after opening with small corrective gains. The NASDAQ underperformed, slumping -1.15%, with the S&P500 -0.58% lower, while the Dow lost -0.12. The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng gained more than 1. European and US futures are finding buyers. A gauge of global chip stocks and AI bellwether Nvidia Corp. have both fallen into a technical correction. The TMSC reported its first profit rise in a year, after strong AI demand revived growth at the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. The main chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. recorded a 9% rise in net income, beating estimates. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
    • Date: 16th April 2024. Market News – Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows. Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected retail sales eliciting a broad sell off in the markets. Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a 50-50 chance. Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week’s declines amid the rise in yields. Investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation. There’s growing anxiety over earnings even after a big beat from Goldman Sachs. UK labor market data was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated – The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE. China grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon. Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook. Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Financial Markets Performance:   The US Dollar rallied to 106.19 after testing 106.25, gaining against JPY and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level. Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed. USOIL is flat at $85 per barrel. Market Trends:   Breaks of key technical levels exacerbated the sell off. Tech was the big loser with the NASDAQ plunging -1.79% to 15,885 while the S&P500 dropped -1.20% to 5061, with the Dow sliding -0.65% to 37,735. The S&P had the biggest 2-day sell off since March 2023. Nikkei and ASX lost -1.9% and -1.8% respectively, and the Hang Seng is down -2.1%. European bourses are down more than -1% and US futures are also in the red. CTA selling tsunami: “Just a few points lower CTAs will for the first time this year start selling in size, to add insult to injury, we are breaking major trend-lines in equities and the gamma stabilizer is totally gone.” Short term CTA threshold levels are kicking in big time according to GS. Medium term is 4873 (most important) while the long term level is at 4605. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 15th April 2024. Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict. However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict. New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70. The Yen dip against USD to 153.85. USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce. Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180. Market Trends:   Asian stock markets traded mixed, but European and US futures are slightly higher after a tough session on Friday and yields have picked up. Mainland China bourses outperformed overnight, after Beijing offered renewed regulatory support. The PBOC meanwhile left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged, while once again draining funds from the system. Nikkei slipped 1% to 39,114.19. On Friday, NASDAQ slumped -1.62% to 16,175, unwinding most of Thursday’s 1.68% jump to a new all-time high at 16,442. The S&P500 fell -1.46% and the Dow dropped 1.24%. Declines were broadbased with all 11 sectors of the S&P finishing in the red. JPMorgan Chase sank 6.5% despite reporting stronger profit in Q1. The nation’s largest bank gave a forecast for a key source of income this year that fell below Wall Street’s estimate, calling for only modest growth. Apple shipments drop by 10% in Q1. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.