Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Do you have any profit/stop targets you are presently holding?

 

 

If we go back up to this week's open, this trade is not valid anymore IMO and a long position would be appropriate.

 

This down move can still be only the pullback everyone (except me, earlier ;) ) was waiting for, before the up move is resumed. I see potential for the shorts down to the 13,500-ish area, but might scale out earlier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Karo,

 

I appreciate the sentiment of this thread - swing trading is increasingly of interest to me (very short-term background) particularly since I re-read Jessie Livermore + Stanley Kroll books.

 

I don't like to clog up someone else's thread, but I'd like to share a few of my favourite quotes from Kroll & Livermore...

 

"The experts are frequently wrong. A good technical approach to investing and timing, coupled with sound money management and a focus on trend following rather than trend predicting, are really the recommended ways to operate for optimum success."

ed: It is so true that analysts like to wheel out explanations for large market moves long after the fact became apparent on the chart isn't it?

 

"Every time you take a with-the-trend position, you should premise that you are in for a mega-move. By so doing, you will be encouraged to hold the position and not look for short-term trades. Let your stops take you out of those trades which fizzle"

ed: With this in mind, I think it really should be no surprise if the swing trader takes several small losses to every winner.

 

"Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks."

Ed: And with that last one I'd simply like to give my very general thoughts, like Mr Partridge did in Jessie Livermores books, on the major stock index futures.

 

Displaying FDAX here, but FESX, ES would show the same story

 

http://s17.postimage.org/nyw96313h/FDAX_UP.png

 

I ask myself - what would Jessie do? Would he try and pick a top here on account of the bearish Fed Statement last night about curbing QE?

No, I believe he would be looking to buy simply on account of the path of least resistance being to the upside!

 

 

Hi Lastninja,

 

Thank you for the quotes!

 

I liked the "Reminiscences..." book about JL very much, but still have to read his own book.

 

Didn't hear yet about S. Kroll. Which one of his books do you recommend? Saw on Amazon that he published a few.

 

The FDAX chart looks tempting for a long... price "resting" just above a former confluence zone. A nice trade from a risk reward perspective.

 

But I do not agree, that ES or YM look similar. On these, you see some space until the next support zone (around 13,500 for YM IMO, see attached).

 

So, I do not try to copy JL's trading style as I try to trade the pullback here (which could also develop to something more, of course) ... one man's trend is another man's pullback... ;)

 

I do agree that I mix up my trades a bit. Sometimes I try to get the bigger moves (which up to now did not work yet :( ... but, on the other hand, only 3 months have passed since the start of this thread) and sometimes I look for the "smaller" moves. Today's markets are behaving (currently, at least) different compared to the time, when JL made (and lost) his fortune. Unfortunately, big trends seem to not occur too often these days.

 

Cheers,

k

YM_D_2013_02_21.thumb.JPG.0081db7a91745d6a627dd1a8bc02a5e8.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the blog link - it was an interesting read.

I actually agree with you that ES and YM look like they could easily pullback for another few days and take out some weak longs who panic on the back of the FOMC Minutes.

 

I think you are brave with your YM and hope it works out for you - but - taking my queues from Jessie Livermore / Kroll, I guess my personal preference would be to sit on the sidelines and wait for a nice opportunity to go long.

 

If that means I make no trades because the markets are not trending nicely... so be it

If that means ES starts to rally from 1500 and I miss the trade because I was hoping for 1450... so be it

:)

 

The book is called Dragons and Bulls. It's fairly short, very similar style to livermore.

 

GL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

...

 

If that means I make no trades because the markets are not trending nicely... so be it

If that means ES starts to rally from 1500 and I miss the trade because I was hoping for 1450... so be it

 

...

 

 

 

I like that attitude :)

 

Are you trading also other instruments, than FDAX, ES, etc.?

 

Thanks for the book title!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I place bids and offers pre-emptively in areas where I believe there will be a stop run. Then if/when I'm in the trade I pray for a swift retracement.

 

But becoming increasingly fascinated by the arm-chair analysis of daily charts/conditions as per Livermore.

 

http://s15.postimage.org/l0npetdqh/scenario_2.png

 

Fingers crossed for scenario #2

 

"Mad props" for posting live trades on a public forum.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Haha... 2 devils on my shoulders... :)

 

Yes, who knows what happens... but currently, it looks promising...

 

I remember this quote from Partridge :) Should have reminded myself of that before taking the short for the pullback... liquidating the long was okay, but going short right afterwards was maybe a bit too much.

 

However, as it seems that this was the move to shake out the weak longs (myself included!) and price now continuing higher, scenario #2 looks more probable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Haha... 2 devils on my shoulders... :)

 

Yes, who knows what happens... but currently, it looks promising...

 

I remember this quote from Partridge :) Should have reminded myself of that before taking the short for the pullback... liquidating the long was okay, but going short right afterwards was maybe a bit too much.

 

However, as it seems that this was the move to shake out the weak longs (myself included!) and price now continuing higher, scenario #2 looks more probable.

 

Good call!!! Have a great weekend!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I use Trade Station for forex. I do not have a futures account on it as I am a Canadian and I cannot trade futures with them in the United States. Bloody crazy.

I use Trade Station to drive Dynamic Trader which gives me the information to make the attached posted chart of the DX.

 

http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/7ef8e796-ebe5-4336-963d-a6d9e8ff794c/2013-02-22_0517.png

 

I would like someone to assist me with a data file from Trade Station futures. I would like the CL crude contract and the GC gold contract for 5-10 years if possible to do a Delta Phenomenon solution on those instruments to post on this thread.

In order to assist one would import an "ELD" indicator into TS called dtts, put it into a daily chart of each and it will make the file.

Simple as that.

C A N---- A N Y B O D Y---- H E L P----- P L E A SE ! ! !

OR will anybody help.

Thank you very much.

Please send me a PM or contact me on Skype if you are willing to assist.

 

slick60

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sticking with your long YM or getting second thoughts?

 

 

Definitely second thoughts... but still in... guess I'm not the only one who thought it should not go below 13,900... could be a stop run... (... I hope! ;) )

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By adamal7
      Hello guys,
      I'm starting to swing trade commodities, especially soft commodities (corn, sugar, coffee, cotton, soybean, ...). I'm also checking gold and oil.
      My problem is I'd like to know what is the best broker for trading those markets (regulated, large commodity choice) ? For CFD trading.
      I'm thinking of IC MARKETS who are very good with forex and have good trading conditions.
      The concern I have is that I need a broker that offers MT4 as a platform, and also I'd like to be able to open mini lots positions for a better risk management.
      As a swing trader, I'm less concerned by the spread but looking at the financing fees.
      Wish you have a nice day, and thanks in advance.
      Alexandre.
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 29th March 2024. GBPUSD Analysis: The Pound Trades Higher But For How Long? The global Stocks Markets are closed due to Easter Friday (Good Friday). The NASDAQ continued to follow the sideways trend while other indices again rose. The SNP500 reaches an all-time high, but the NASDAQ remains under pressure from Tesla, Meta and Apple. The Euro continues to trade lower against all major currencies including the US Dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen. The British Pound is the best performing currency during this morning’s Asian session. However, investors are largely fixing their attention on this afternoon’s Core PCE Price Index. GBPUSD – The Pound Trades Higher but For How Long? The GBPUSD is slightly higher than the day’s open and is primary due to the Pound’s strong performance. At the moment, the British Pound is increasing in value against all major currencies. However, the US Dollar Index is also trading 0.10% higher and for this reason there is a slight conflict here. If investors wish to avoid this conflict, the EURUSD is a better option. This is because, the Euro depreciating against the whole currency market avoiding the “tug-of-war” scenario. The GBPUSD is trading slightly lower than the 2-month’s average price and is trading at 49.10 on the RSI. For this reason, the price of the exchange is at a “neutral” level and is signalling neither a buy nor a sell. The day’s price action and future signals are possibly likely to be triggered by this afternoon’s Core PCE Price Index. Analysts expect the Core PCE Price Index to read 0.3% which is slightly lower than the previous month but will result in the annual figure remaining at 2.85%. The PCE rate is different to the inflation rate and the Fed aims for a rate between 1.5% to 2.00%. Therefore, even if the annual rate remains at 2.85%, as analysts expect, it would be too high for the Fed. If the rate increases, even if only slightly, the US Dollar can again renew bullish momentum and the stock market can come under pressure. This includes the SNP500. Investors are focused on the publication of data on the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the last quarter of 2023: the quarterly figures decreased by 0.3%, and 0.2% over the past 12-months. This confirms the state of a shallow recession and the need for stimulation. The data, combined with a cooling labor market and a steady decline in inflation, increase the likelihood that the Bank of England will soon begin interest rate cuts. In the latest meeting the Bank of England representatives did not see any members vote for a hike. USA500 – The SNP500 Rises to New Highs, But Cannot Hold Onto Gains! The price of the SNP500 rises to an all-time high, before correcting 0.33% and ending the day slightly lower than the open price. Nonetheless, the index performs better than the NASDAQ which came under pressure from Tesla, Meta and Apple which hold a higher weight compared to the SNP500. For the SNP500, these 3 stocks hold a weight of 9.25%, whereas the 3 stocks make up 14.63% of the NASDAQ. The SNP500 is also supported by ExxonMobil’s gains due to higher energy prices. The market will remain closed on Friday due to Easter. However, the market will reopen on Monday for the US and investors can expect high volatility. Investors will also need to take into consideration how the PCE Price Index and the changed value of the US Dollar is likely to affect the stock market next week. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • MT4 is good and will be good until their parent company keep updating the software, later mt4 users will have to switch to mt5.
    • $SOUN SoundHound AI stock at 5.91 support area , see https://stockconsultant.com/?SOUN
    • $ELEV Elevation Oncology stock bull flag breakout watch , see https://stockconsultant.com/?ELEV
    • $AVDX AvidXchange stock narrow range breakout watch above 13.32 , see https://stockconsultant.com/?AVDX
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.