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TinGull

[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part I

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Back to bidness. I got a view of the ER2 and YM weekly chart here and the last few bars showing interesting volume. PP or anyone want to take a try at this one. My interpretation is that the volume is drying on the bulls and more on the bears. My take that is if the next WRB with high volume, it's confirming in the downtrend?

 

NEWBIE-TRADER-YM-WEEKLY.gif

 

NEWBIE-TRADER-ER2-WEEKLY.gif

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I have nearly finished reading master the markets and I'm very intrigued. Here is a stock I was hoping folks could comment on. I am very new to this so please forgive my ignorance.

 

KNDL is a stock that showed up on my float analysis. It has a float of about 12 mil. It has had some interesting activity that I was hoping I could get some help with.

 

For the last few days it has been trading in a channel and yesterday as it approached a trend line there occurred what I thought was a failed test. But today I can see that the trend line was broken with sideways activity. So I could definitely use some help on interpreting this chart.

 

I have to say that after reading this book it's like somebody open the blinds in a dark room and let the light in. I don't think I'll ever trade the same way again.

 

The first chart is a 3 month daily chart with my interpretations (probably wrong). The second chart is a 10 min chart where the short term trading channel was broken. It's hard for me to tell whether accumulation or distribution is going on. Something definitely seems to be happening.

 

Thanks, Alan

kndlchart.thumb.jpg.a06fe1ed69d31d87038d1c223df269ec.jpg

kndl10min.thumb.jpg.b497de8ecb66262399352d35b3c3ab46.jpg

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Port80, welcome to the thread and the forum.

 

I have attached a copy of the bar chart with some comments.

 

Basically, you seem to have a good grasp on VSA. I am a student myself so I could be wrong with what I see.

 

The first thing to note is the wide spread ultra high volume bar. You labeled it stopping volume. I think it is either stopping volume or a volume climax. More important than the name, however, is the fact that a change in the supply/demand dynamic happened on that bar. The bar is wide with ultra high volume, closed lower than the previous bar, and closed near the high of its range. CLEARLY THERE WAS BUYING (DEMAND) ON THIS BAR. This created a gap which was filled.

 

I veer off the VSA path a bit to mention that this is a Wide Range Body. Note where the open is (not looked at in VSA, but so telling). Ironically, I think this is an advanced VSA concept despite that they do not look at the open. In other words, if they did look at it, they would logically come to the conclusion WRB analysis comes to. Not to get too far into this, but what I like to see is a set-up (entry signal) happen within the range of the body or the total range of the bar of this ultra wide spread bar. I believe Todd, and Tom would agree with the total range aspect and thus it is more advanced VSA, and not talked about in public forums(webinars) by Todd.

 

At any rate, we then get a No Supply bar. The bar closes near its low, has a narrow range as compared to the previous bar, closes lower than the previous bar and has volume less than the previous two bars.

 

You are correct about the test. That is indeed a test of supply that closes in the middle of its range, makes a lower low than previous bar, closes lower than the previous bar. Volume is higher than the previous bar but relatively low.

 

The bar you labeled as No Supply is incorrect. The volume is not less than the previous two bars. However, the next bar is No Demand. Note that we are at the bottom of the support/resistance zone via the body of that large candle. With a No Demand indication, the Professional Money has to re-test for supply underneath. We thus get another test bar. Here what is of note is the fact that volume here is less than the volume on the first test. This is a sign of market strength.

 

Note the shaded area. There is something going on here that is beyond the scope of this thread. Suffice to say, there is reason to expect price to move back into this area. But even without that concept, one would be looking for a move back to "test" the close of that large Ultra Wide Spread bar.

 

How and where you actually enter the market is another question altogether............... That is, it is a personal decision. But the pattern of a No Supply followed by a test, followed by a No Demand, followed by another test on less volume than the first test and with a low less than the first test, is a repeatable pattern.

5aa70e4a8858e_post103.thumb.PNG.2ae8eb8c9eefe460de5d3ed0bb078328.PNG

Edited by mister ed
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Thanks for the insight. Got a lot to learn. Missed the demand day. Don't know much about WRB's. But I'll look into them. I'm actually most interested in the latest 10 minute chart. Something is definitely happening. A shake out possibly?? I'm not worried about making any trades at the moment. I just think this is a great stock to learn something about VSA partly because of the low float. Thanks so much for your help.

kndl10min05.thumb.jpg.be919a1e4a3ada1b8237ec4b2cf4c10d.jpg

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What did they know, and when did they know it? OR the importance of Volume.

 

Here is a chart of some of today's price action in the Euro.

 

What is telling here is the actions of Professional Money PRIOR to the news release. We can see when they begin to position themselves and on what side through the use of VSA.

 

Almost an hour beforehand, we see an Ultra Wide Spread Bar with Ultra High Volume, that closes down from the previous bar and closes in the middle of its range. This bar represents a transfer of ownership. That is, the Professionals are buying from the retail traders. Why would they be buying prior to a usually volatile news release ? Seems like a risky thing to do. Could they already have an idea of what it will say?

 

Now VSA tells us that if this is the case, we would expect that if they are BUYING now, they will be SELLING into the release itself for profit taking. Especially If the news spurs the retail traders into entering the market on the long side. However, if the retail trader is believes the news to be bearish, they (Smart Money) would be BUYING more. That is, if the retail traders are getting short, who are they selling to? So we should see both Professional selling and buying. We don't expect then to get net short in other words.

 

Check out the large dark hammer as the news is released. There was some profit taking on that bar. But the bar has ultra High volume, closes on its low with the next bar up. Some buying must of taken place as well. More exactly, they took profits and then began buying as the retail traders (weak hands) rushed in on the short side. We always want to consider "who is on the other side" with VSA. Usually, its the Smart Money and that is not good. I should say, without VSA it's usually the Smart Money and that is not good.

 

Note that price did begin to fall for a few bars. But then we get a dark hammer line. The Long Shadow of the hammer line happens, not so coincidently, to trade into the region of the First candle mentioned where the transfer of ownership begun. The Smart Money is becoming aggressive on the demand side. They are locking in the weak holders (retail shorts) as they know price is going HIGER NOT LOWER. The down move and the dark hammer itself may have even pushed some weak longs out.

 

If you look at a chart beyond the time shown here, you will see the strong up move that ensues.

 

1. The Smart Money began getting long (long) prior to the News.

2. Some used the event to take a bit of profit.

3. Most got even more long (demand).

4. Once the weak holders where short, price found support in a such a way as to knock out weak longs and lock in weak shorts.

5. what can not be seen in this picture, is a large inverted white hammer that represents the last effort for the weak shorts to get out at break even if the bought on the news release itself.

 

When we use VSA we get a 3 dimensional picture: volume, range and price. Ignoring one of them (like volume or keeping volume constant) is like cutting off one leg of a tripod...............

5aa70e4a94694_post106.thumb.PNG.1c692fe00db7c493b2483b147eb95679.PNG

Edited by mister ed
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If there has been a theme to my posts recently, it is summed up in the word: CONTEXT.

 

I am learning to use candlestick patterns as a secondary method. By that I mean, entry set-up signals.

 

VSA and WRB & Long Shadow analysis are the primary methods and are used to understand the contextual backdrop thru which a candlestick pattern trade can be taken.

 

Take a look at the chart below.

 

We see a WRB on Ultra High Volume. VSA tells us that markets do not like Wide Spread up bars on Ultra High Volume. Because there could be hidden selling in the bar.

 

Now check out the very next bar. This bar has almost as much volume as the WRB, in fact it has 3 ticks less. BUT the range is much more narrow and the bar closes in the middle of its range. This is a transfer of ownership bar. The Smart Money is dumping supply into the market. As retail traders rush in to get long, the Smart Money is all too happy to sell to them. Like I said, we need to always be aware of who is on the other side of the trade.

 

While this bar is up, on high volume it is not "up volume". Most volume indicators and volume analysis would assume it is positive. But we know better than that. :D

 

A few bars later, we see a narrow bar that close up from the previous bar and closes in the upper portion of its range, but on volume less than the previous two bars. This is No Demand. Professionals are not interested in higher prices at this time.

 

At this point we have context. Supply has entered the market. Note that price overall begins to move sideways.

 

There are some who would go short after the No Demand with the background selling that can be seen. This is a personal choice. For me, all that the context says is, "now is not the time to be going long". I need to see some candle pattern, preferably within the range of the WRB, to get me short. (if you look at a chart from today, you will see that price plummeted after the jobs report). But my point is this, the context, or story, at this time says more about NOT going long than simply get short.

 

A Tradeguider "sign of weakness" might appear on the transfer of ownership bar. It would therefore look like the top was called and thus possibly sold. This is the error that most indicator only traders who look at TG make.

5aa70e4a99438_post107.thumb.PNG.2742ec380181ce5d4166a05fc0098d0b.PNG

Edited by mister ed
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Hello everyone

 

This is not a reply to any particular post but is posted with a view to seeking advice on VSA and in particular to the TradeGuider bootcamp course with William's book.

 

Has anyone purchased the bootcamp course? What are your views on the course?

 

What would be a good starting point - buy the book first [to get the basics] and then the course or just get the course [assuming that the course will have a large coverage of the topics in the book] and then if necessary the book just to complete the whole picture.

 

I have no prior experience/knowledge of VSA per se other than having watched Galvin's introductory demo to members of TL and from what I have read in the posts in this forum.

 

Any comments much appreciated.

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I always say start with the book first and then get the bootcamp. Of course it they come packaged together that would be the best.

 

What you really need to know is how YOU learn best. If you learn better reading about a concept, then Cleary start with the book. If you learn better in a more lecture type setting then you would want to start with the bootcamp.

 

* Remember, the book needs to be continuously read. One read will not be enough. *

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Hello VSAers;

 

By now most if not all have seen the Cramer video. But if you go to youtube.com and type Market Manipulation in the search box, a few videos down from the Cramer one is a video by Tom Williams himself.

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Hello VSAers;

 

By now most if not all have seen the Cramer video. But if you go to youtube.com and type Market Manipulation in the search box, a few videos down from the Cramer one is a video by Tom Williams himself.

 

I have a video of a presentation Williams and Krueger gave for the CBOT back in Sept. of '06 if anyone is interested. It's about 50 Meg so perhaps I can post it somewhere to make it available if there is any interest.

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I have a video of a presentation Williams and Krueger gave for the CBOT back in Sept. of '06 if anyone is interested. It's about 50 Meg so perhaps I can post it somewhere to make it available if there is any interest.

 

That would be great. I haven`t seen this video. You can upload this to mediafire.com and then post the link.

 

Thanks

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---snip---

 

Almost an hour beforehand, we see an Ultra Wide Spread Bar with Ultra High Volume, that closes down from the previous bar and closes in the middle of its range. This bar represents a transfer of ownership. That is, the Professionals are buying from the retail traders. Why would they be buying prior to a usually volatile news release ? Seems like a risky thing to do. Could they already have an idea of what it will say?

 

---snip---

 

 

Hi PP,

 

In reply to this a couple of posts ago. I had a bit of trouble seeing this. Agree its ultra wide ultra high however it is only a wee bit up (could make an argument that it is fairly neutral). The price was run down and attracted buyers and run up where it attracted sellers. Without seeing "inside the bar" (lower time frame) I have trouble seeing this as the smart money buying. I wondered if there is anything esle that gave that clue?

 

Thanks for your excelent contributions btw, first class! Actualy this was the first thing I could not see with clarity :)

 

Cheers,

Nick.

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BEFORE & AFTER:

 

I have attached two charts. The first is the before and the second is the after.

 

Let's look at the before.

 

For me the key concept comes thru at least a basic understanding of WRBs. Of course, VSA doesn't look at the open, but I think much is missed if you don't. More over, I think that if VSA did, they would come to the same conclusion. And in fact, they DO come to the same conclusion partially when dealing with wide spread bars (more on this later).

 

The first bar with the double arrow is a wide spread bar that closes in the middle on ultra high volume. Supply enters the market on this bar. Not a place to go short. The reason: the reason is explained in the next highlighted bars.

 

The next bar we have is a Long Shadow and in VSA terms, it is Ultra Wide Spread bar on high volume, that closes lower than the previous bar, and closes in the upper portion of the range. DEMAND entered the market on this bar. Now, here is where I depart from VSA. We now have a Long Shadow that creates a support/resistance zone. We also see that this Long Shadow tells us that demand overcame supply on the lower portion of the bar. Not to mention, this bar is a Doji (close=open). VSA does not care that it is a doji, yet the conclusion that something is changing in the supply/demand dynamic is the same-Buyers came in on this bar.

 

Still not the bar to get into the market on. The next key bar is a WRB. WRBs also tell us of shifts or changes in supply and demand. Then we get a No Demand bar. Again not a bar to enter on. What we need to see is something happen within the RANGE of the WRB AND OR THE RANGE OF THE SHADOW OF THE LONG SHADOW BAR.

 

Ideally, the market will move back down and give us a No Supply or Test within these ranges. Then we should be looking to go long. And that concept is what Todd does not say much about. Clearly, he would not talk about within the context of the WRB because he does not look at the open, but he can talk about the overall range of the Ultra Wide Spread bar. In other words, even though he would not know it is a Long Shadow, he would recognize the bar as Ultra Wide Spread and thus should be used as a matrix to measure what comes.

 

The next chart is the AFTER.

 

We do indeed get the No Supply sign in the range of the WRB and the Long Shadow candle. Once we have the confirmation bar up, the next bar, we get long at the close of that bar/open of the next bar.

 

Note that there are two gaps and gaps are usually filled so we need to keep that in mind.

5aa70e4a9dbb8_post114.thumb.PNG.f684160ae7cf65d63ab2d6d877c4607b.PNG

5aa70e4aa2503_post1142ndchartinpost.thumb.PNG.f3d23b23b87829b47cca78ab42058c6b.PNG

Edited by mister ed
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again excellent work pivot,i have long been a believer of volume,just goes to show your never to old to learn,only been a member here for only aweek,its like christmas!

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I always say start with the book first and then get the bootcamp. Of course it they come packaged together that would be the best.

 

What you really need to know is how YOU learn best. If you learn better reading about a concept, then Cleary start with the book. If you learn better in a more lecture type setting then you would want to start with the bootcamp.

 

* Remember, the book needs to be continuously read. One read will not be enough. *

 

Thanks PivotProfiler. Just wondering if any member purchased the material.:)

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Hi PP,

 

In reply to this a couple of posts ago. I had a bit of trouble seeing this. Agree its ultra wide ultra high however it is only a wee bit up (could make an argument that it is fairly neutral). The price was run down and attracted buyers and run up where it attracted sellers. Without seeing "inside the bar" (lower time frame) I have trouble seeing this as the smart money buying. I wondered if there is anything esle that gave that clue?

 

Thanks for your excelent contributions btw, first class! Actualy this was the first thing I could not see with clarity :)

 

Cheers,

Nick.

 

Thanks for the kind words. I believe you are talking about the chart labeled " what did they know and when did they know it". I hope that is correct.

 

First, you are correct. It is a bit hard to see.

 

Generally speaking the bar is broken up into thirds by TG. So by that matrix the bar closes in the middle. In reality it is a close that is not in the middle but still only slightly in the upper portion of the range. I do think the close is close enough to the middle to be considered a middle close. And we know that middle closes on wide spread bars are important.

 

But we really need to look at the bar prior and the bar proceeding to get an understanding of what is going on. Note that this bar closes equal to the previous bar. With all that volume the bar managed to go nowhere. But with all that volume, we know the Smart Money was doing something.

 

What cannot be seen on this chart is the fact that prices were trending more to the downside than the upside prior to this bar. So, if Smart Money did come in on the bar, the first inclination is to see it as Demand. Even if we consider the close as being in the upper portion we have to assume that there was BUYING going on in the bar. If there had been selling the bar should at least be slightly to the down side of the bar.

 

But wait. No position is going to be taken at this point anyway. Now on the very next bar volume dries up, the range narrows and the close is in the upper portion of the bar. This is a test. If the Smart Money is testing for supply, they MUST have been buying on the previous bar. Simply, we would not get a test on low volume, if they had been selling.

 

Note I did not mention the fact that this is a white candle (close>open), because VSA does not look at the open. But as I do, I also can see that price closed up from the open so I have another clue as to buying on the bar rather than selling. There are some candle traders that would call this bar a Doji because of the width of the body in relation to the overall candle length. Doji are indecision bar. If we then look to Long Shadow analysis, we know that a shift in supply/demand is likely. So something is happening on the bar. Based on what has come before and what comes after the entire picture comes into view.

 

From a repeatable pattern point of view, tests very often come after bars with Ultra High Volume where demand comes in. So you don't have to get too caught up in the middle/slight upper close issue of the bar. More over, why would Smart Money test for supply if they had just dumped some? They would not. Hence they are looking to take prices up and must of been buying prior to the test.

 

Had the test failed.................. see next post.

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This post builds on post # 114.

 

After the up move in price what happens next?

 

There is on thing we want to keep in mind; we had a couple of Gaps on the way up. Gaps are usually filled. They can at times, however, act as support and resistance areas......

 

Let's look at the what happens when a test fails.

 

The first thing you will notice is a WRB. Not important to VSA but oh so telling to the rest of us. :) The best places to see tests, upthrusts, and no supply/no demand bars are within the body of a WRB or shadow of a Long Shadow candle.

 

We have our WRB in place. This creates a natural support/resistance zone. Next we see a narrow bar that closes near its high, closes equal to the previous bar, and has Ultra High volume. THIS IS A HIGH VOLUME TEST. Smart money is looking for sellers and is finding some. While it is true that sometimes the market goes up on high test, it usually does not go up far and then comes back down to re-test the area.

 

As always the next 1 or 2 bars need to be considered. To actually confirm the test we need to see one of the next 2 bars close Higher than the close of the test. Otherwise, we have a failed test. Notice what happens here. The next bar is down and then the bar after that is an up bar but closes equal to the close of the test bar. Now, look at the next bar. We have an up bar that closes in the middle to slightly up on relatively high volume. It is not as high as the test, but it is still high.

 

Up close (from previous bar), on high volume closing near the middle: This is supply entering the market. At this point, we have a FAILED test on high volume and more supply showing up. The very next bar closes on the high with volume less than the previous two bars and closes higher than the previous bar. This is no buying pressure. As it would happen, the high of this bar is equal to the close of the WRB. TG WONT TELL YOU THIS. Then we get the next bar down. From a VSA point of view, now is the time to go short.

 

* the test of supply has failed.

* New supply entered.

* No buying pressure.

 

couple that with the fact that there are gaps below and all this is happening at the low of the S/R zone of a WRB.

 

Now let's take a look at a test that does not fail. I would first point out that from a time of day perspective, this is not an ideal time to be entering a trade.

 

It all starts with a WRB.

 

We have an Ultra Wide Spread bar on Ultra High Volume that closes on the low. But the next bar is up. If this bar is up then there must of been some buying in the previous Ultra Wide Spread bar. WRB analysis tells us that changes and shifts in supply/demand occur in WRBs. More reasons to think something is indeed going on.

 

3 candles later, we see a narrow range candle that closes on its high, makes a lower low and has volume less than the previous two bars. THIS IS A TEST. Technically a possible test, as we do not have a confirmation bar yet.

 

Confirmation comes 2 bars later when we see an up bar that closes higher than the close of the test bar. First possible entry point, with no regard to time of day. If you missed that point there is another. We get a bar that closes on its low, has a narrow range, has volume less than the previous two bars, with the next bar up. THIS IS NO SELLING PRESSURE/NO SUPPLY.

 

What is nice about this bar is the volume. While the test volume was lower than the previous two bars, it was not as low as the volume on this bar. More evidence of the lack of sellers underneath. Also note that we are within the range of the WRB as on this bar. So we have a second chance entry which may in fact be the most ideal entry of all for some (leaving time of day out of the equation).

 

Back to the test candle. Some may note a hammer line that appears to traverse into a bullish white hammer pattern. It does not. But if you had mistaken it as such, here too, time of day should have kept you out.

5aa70e4aa6f83_post120.thumb.PNG.062e14ef1cd58b7ad5bd8e797cf185ba.PNG

Edited by mister ed
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One thing that I am very struck with is the overlap one finds in " things that are true" across various methods.

 

Take for example the chart below.

 

Notice that we have a valid High Close Doji pattern.

 

This pattern appears within the body of the WRB and the following Ultra Wide Spread bar with Ultra High volume. Take a look at the test bar.

 

VSA tells us that a test bar is when Professional Money "mark" prices down to see if there are is any supply (sellers). VSA, however, does not look at the open of the bar. But look at what we see if we do. First, we see that this bar is a doji. In candlestick terms this bar represents indecision. More over, the close on the top means price was rejected as it moved down. This is not unlike what VSA tells us.

 

When we look at the entire bar, what must be the way the bar played out? The bar opened up, went down and the price came up to close right where it opened. Clearly, we can see that Professional Money "marked-down" the price only to take it back up again. In this case, we have a "perfect" example of the true intentions of the Smart Money. If the open had been lower on the bar, we would of course still have a test, but the picture would be different. For example, if the open was at the low of the bar, we would still have a test, but we would not get a sense of the "mark-down".

 

Note that the other labeled test candle opens in the middle and closes on its high. We do see the action (mark down-price rejection) here as well.

 

To be clear, tests come in various forms and the key is the volume and the close. But some tests are more reliable than others. Volume plays a role here but so does the open. Tests that are also dojis tend to be the optimal type of tests. To those that use candles, this makes sense. Hammers with long shadows also make ideal test bars.

 

Two methods reaching like conclusions.

 

It should be pointed out that a test bar needs confirmation. Ideally that confirmation comes on the next bar with a close higher than the close of the close of the test bar. If that confirmation bar closes higher than the high of the test bar and it (the test bar) is a doji, well, now we have something..............

5aa70e4aabac6_post121.thumb.PNG.a4f301747303618b878afbe8179d7b4f.PNG

Edited by mister ed
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I have a video of a presentation Williams and Krueger gave for the CBOT back in Sept. of '06 if anyone is interested. It's about 50 Meg so perhaps I can post it somewhere to make it available if there is any interest.

 

Hello Dupaski.. Have you found a place to upload the video above refrenced? I am sure there are some of us who would like to see it if you really don't mind going to the trouble to post it.

 

Also.. to PP... you once mentioned Joel Pozen with reference to VSA. I found out he does a mentoring program, but it certainly is not inexpensive at $4,000. Is he really that great a mentor or do you feel the key concepts can be learned by an experienced trader from intensive effort spent with the book and the bootcamp alone?

 

Do please keep this thread going. I find it to be one of the most interesting threads in the entire forum thus far.

 

Happy Trading ;)

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Also.. to PP... you once mentioned Joel Pozen with reference to VSA. I found out he does a mentoring program, but it certainly is not inexpensive at $4,000. Is he really that great a mentor or do you feel the key concepts can be learned by an experienced trader from intensive effort spent with the book and the bootcamp alone?

 

Thanks ezduzzit.

 

You asked about Joel Pozen. Your question uses the word mentor so my answer as it pertains to this is, I do not know. I have not taken his course and thus can not comment on his ability to teach what he knows, or in the overall course.

 

I have taken the free live demo a couple of times. It is clear to me that Joel posses an uncanny ability to "call" market direction based on reading the bars. After attending numerous webinars by Tradeguider, it is refreshing to see someone NOT dependant on "indicators" to read price and volume.

 

That is, Gavin, who does most of the non-software customer webinars, actually relies on trending systems and VSA indicators of the software to make trading decisions. Whereas Joel is looking at Volume, Price, Spread and Support and Resistance levels only. Joel does place a "dot" on all bars that have volume less than the previous two bars, but he is doing more CHART READING than signal waiting if you will. Nevertheless, I agree that the cost seems a bit high. I do recommend taking the demo if you have not. He is willing to share many insights during these free sessions and you can decide if it is a program worth pursuing.

 

If one buys the book and the bootcamp and puts in the time to learn the concepts, that is enough to create a solid understanding of many key VSA ideas.

 

Simply, the most cost effective way to learn is:

 

1. The Book ($100.00)

2. The bootcamp ($500.00)

3. Screen time

4. Webinars (free)- every now and then Gavin does provide useful pieces of information.

5. Screen time

6. Repeat

 

** unfortunately, if you buy the book and bootcamp and the foundations course and attend the upcoming live seminars, you will spend much more than a person that only buys the End Of Day version of the software. However, your money is not considered equal, and thus you will not be allowed into the customer only seminars held by Todd where advanced learning takes place. Go figure. **

 

Also that Weimar by Todd can be found on the CBOT website.

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Thanks to both of you (Pivot and Cooter) for the info. I will attend Joel's live demo this coming Wednesday. I already went through the TG bootcamp a good while back and have reviewed the cd's of that program as well at home a couple of times.

 

I am afraid I have to agree 100% with your feelings about TG's current customer policies if you don't buy their software. But so be it, as I have seen their software and it really does not interest me. I do think that I will buy and study the book though, as I got a sense there were a large number of examles therein. I did read a tiny smattering of Richard Ney's stuff as well, which I found interesting but a bit hard to decipher at times. They could certainly stand some updating.

 

Thanks again to you two and all the other contributors here for a very interesting thread.

 

Happy Trading ;)

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    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
    • Date: 16th April 2024. Market News – Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows. Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected retail sales eliciting a broad sell off in the markets. Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a 50-50 chance. Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week’s declines amid the rise in yields. Investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation. There’s growing anxiety over earnings even after a big beat from Goldman Sachs. UK labor market data was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated – The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE. China grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon. Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook. Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Financial Markets Performance:   The US Dollar rallied to 106.19 after testing 106.25, gaining against JPY and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level. Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed. USOIL is flat at $85 per barrel. Market Trends:   Breaks of key technical levels exacerbated the sell off. Tech was the big loser with the NASDAQ plunging -1.79% to 15,885 while the S&P500 dropped -1.20% to 5061, with the Dow sliding -0.65% to 37,735. The S&P had the biggest 2-day sell off since March 2023. Nikkei and ASX lost -1.9% and -1.8% respectively, and the Hang Seng is down -2.1%. European bourses are down more than -1% and US futures are also in the red. CTA selling tsunami: “Just a few points lower CTAs will for the first time this year start selling in size, to add insult to injury, we are breaking major trend-lines in equities and the gamma stabilizer is totally gone.” Short term CTA threshold levels are kicking in big time according to GS. Medium term is 4873 (most important) while the long term level is at 4605. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 15th April 2024. Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict. However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict. New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70. The Yen dip against USD to 153.85. USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce. Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180. Market Trends:   Asian stock markets traded mixed, but European and US futures are slightly higher after a tough session on Friday and yields have picked up. Mainland China bourses outperformed overnight, after Beijing offered renewed regulatory support. The PBOC meanwhile left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged, while once again draining funds from the system. Nikkei slipped 1% to 39,114.19. On Friday, NASDAQ slumped -1.62% to 16,175, unwinding most of Thursday’s 1.68% jump to a new all-time high at 16,442. The S&P500 fell -1.46% and the Dow dropped 1.24%. Declines were broadbased with all 11 sectors of the S&P finishing in the red. JPMorgan Chase sank 6.5% despite reporting stronger profit in Q1. The nation’s largest bank gave a forecast for a key source of income this year that fell below Wall Street’s estimate, calling for only modest growth. Apple shipments drop by 10% in Q1. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • The morning of my last post I happened to glance over to the side and saw “...angst over the FOMC’s rate trajectory triggered a flight to safety, hence boosting the haven demand. “   http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/21621-hfmarkets-hfmcom-market-analysis-services/page/17/?tab=comments#comment-228522   I reacted, but didn’t take time to  respond then... will now --- HFBlogNews, I don’t know if you are simply aggregating the chosen narratives for the day or if it’s your own reporting... either way - “flight to safety”????  haven ?????  Re: “safety  - ”Those ‘solid rocks’ are getting so fragile a hit from a dandelion blowball might shatter them... like now nobody wants to buy longer term new issues at these rates...yet the financial media still follows the scripts... The imagery they pound day in and day out makes it look like the Fed knows what they’re doing to help ‘us’... They do know what they’re doing - but it certainly is not to help ‘us’... and it is not to ‘control’ inflation... And at some point in the not too distant future, the interest due will eat a huge portion of the ‘revenue’ Re: “haven” The defaults are coming ...  The US will not be the first to default... but it will certainly not be the very last to default !! ...Enough casual anti-white racism for the day  ... just sayin’
    • Date: 12th April 2024. Producer Inflation On The Rise, But Will Earnings Hold Demand Steady?     Producer inflation rose slightly less than previous expectations, but the annual figure continues to rise. The annual PPI rose to 2.1% and the Core PPI rose to 2.4%. The NASDAQ and SNP500 end the day higher, but the Dow Jones continues to struggle. This morning earnings kick off with the banking sector including JP Morgan, BlackRock and Wells Fargo. All 3 stocks trade higher during pre-trading hours. The Euro trades lower against all currencies despite the ECB’s attempt to establish a hawkish tone. USA100 – The NASDAQ Climbs Higher, But Is the Growth Sustainable? The NASDAQ was the only index which did not witness a significant decline at the opening of the US session. In addition to this, the USA100 is the only index which is witnessing indications of a bullish market. The price has crossed onto a higher high breaking the resistance level at $18,269. The index is also trading above the 75-Bar EMA and at the 65.00 level on the RSI which signals buyers are controlling the market. However, a similar large bullish impulse wave was also formed on the 3rd and 5th of the month and was followed by a correction. Therefore, investors need to be cautious of a bearish breakout which may signal a correction back to the 75-bar EMA (18,165). The medium-term growth and its sustainability will depend on the upcoming earnings data.   Bond yields declined during this morning’s Asian session by 18 points, which is positive for the stock market. However, even with the decline, bond yields remain significantly higher than Monday’s opening yield. This week the 10-year bond yield rose from 4.424 to 4.558, which is a concern. If bond yields again start to rise, the stock market potentially can again become pressured. 25% of the NASDAQ ended the day lower and 75% higher. This gives a clear indication of the sentiment towards the technology sector and reassures traders about the price movement. Another positive was all of the top 12 influential stocks rose in value. Apple, NVIDIA and Broadcom saw the strongest gains, all rising more than 4%. Producer inflation read slightly lower than expectations, however, the index continues to rise. The Producer Price Index rose from 1.6% to 2.1% and the Core PPI from 2.1% to 2.4%. Therefore, it is not indicating inflation will become easier to tackle in the upcoming months. For this reason, investors should note that inflation and the monetary policy is still a risk and can trigger strong bearish impulse waves. EURUSD – The Euro Declines Against Major Currencies The European Central Bank is attempting to concentrate on the positive factors and give no indications of when the committee may opt to cut rates. For example, President Lagarde advises “sales figures” remain stable, but the issue remains they are stably low. Officials said the decline in prices generally confirms medium-term forecasts and is ensured by a decrease in the cost of food and goods. Most experts continue to believe that the first reduction in interest rates will happen in June, and there may be three or four in total during the year. Due to this, the Euro is declining against all currencies including the Pound, Yen and Swiss Franc. The US Dollar Index on the other hand trades 0.39% higher and is almost trading at a 23-week high. Due to this momentum, the price of the exchange continues to indicate a decline in favor of the US Dollar.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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