Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

TinGull

[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part I

Recommended Posts

Not in my experience. I love how responsive it is when the market really gets moving. It may be your firends computer speed.

An updated version of the software is supposed to be coming out in the next two weeks anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Ravin,

How does Trade Guider work with real time data of e-signal. I have been told that it does not perform so well. In other words it gets stuck and you have to refresh the data. Is that correct? For such an expensive program, this should not happen. Any comments?

 

As I keep saying you really do not need the software to work/trade with the VSA methodology. You can learn the principles from the book, Bootcamp CD, and from this thread, especially posts by Pivotprofiler

 

Then get hold of Vadym Graifer's book on "Techniques of Tape Reading", here you will find the six main principles and info. on how to construct your strategies and tactics from observing a few setups.

Ignore pedantic definitions of Tape Reading on other threads. We are not here talking about DOM games and Time/Sales where the shortest time frame is reflected. Go to Linda Raschke's website and download "Notes from a Swing Trader" which has a section on "Reading The Tape".

 

As for the Tradeguider Software, there are a few glitches but overall it performs well , forget about all the indicators, the VSA indicators are the most important, as each one has a menu with explanation and "if-then" scenarios, so in that respect can boost your learning curve. Infact it is the only software which does that. Look at all other softwares with 100indicators, none tells you how to trade with them.

 

Hope this helps

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Things move fast here.

 

The forex question has been answered well by others.

Glitches.

There is only one glitch with an alert that I'm aware of.While annoying the glitch wont be detrimental to trading.

EsignalSeamless integration.

Software

Firstly I don't think its expensive---everyone has a different view on expensive.I payed for it on my second trade.

Using the software and its proprietary tools will bring you up to speed faster than with conventional software and books.You could trade VSA without the software,personally I want all the VSA gizmo's--commentaries in the one place.

Backup

Frankly since Gavin's take over and as mentioned his marketing bent,I'm of the opinion that his targeting of the Asian market has seen such a tremendous demand that its like grabbing a tiger by the tail.

Gavin is a genuine guy with a passion for Tradeguider bought about I believe by the results he has seen and gained personally.Like most businesses which expand at tremendous rates,its a struggle to control everything.

Gavin has some enormous challenges,but with the success Tradeguider is enjoying I'm confident that the Business issues will be resolved.

Todd left evidently to pursue areas which he couldn't with a connection to Tradeguider,due to confidentiality issues.So they went separate ways.

 

Tingull

 

Just on your chart

The 5th bar back is a very important bar.

Note the extreme volume AND range.The very next bar is an up bar this indicates thet bar 5 was an absobsion bar from buyers absorbing sellers.

One great rule I have found is a bar like this can be identified by the NEXT bar.If selling did indeed hold the trump cards then the next bar would be a down bar.If it was absorbsion then the next would be an up bar.

 

We also need to look at current action relative to past and immediate past action so lets take the 6 bars from the dotted line

Gap down to a spinning top on volume the next bar is wide range heavier volume buying,bars 3 and 4 are down on LOWER volume so not much conviction from sellers.Bar 5 has strong buying met by massive supply.

Price then drifts down on lightish volume until the tests at the lows.

 

Unfortunately this chart is showing a lack of conviction by buyers,the last bar in the chart is wide range with lower volume---a good thing as supply doesnt seem to be present.The previous setup would have confirmed the test bars as you have pointed out.The low risk entry would have been the hammer you have highlighted.

Hope this is of some help.

 

Ill notify both Radge and Gavin of the thread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi all what a great thread, i have spent the hole day reading it, well worthe the excersise,

can any one tell me if they have coded the metastock code that pivotprofiler post in #275 in a tradestation code and would he/she be willing to share it. thanks to all how have keplt this thread going.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TinGull, from what I've read, that looks like a textbook test:

1) lower close

2) volume lower than previous 2 bars

3) close near the high.

4) testing previous low

Yup, all four check out---and it worked! Hope you took it long.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Regarding the Tradeguider software, I took a 30 day trial with it using eSignal datafeed, and Tradeguider was abysmal, crashing constantly. When I spoke to Gavin by phone, he suggested deleting some of my charts, so I was only looking at one or two at a time. I told him that I could, of course, but that this would limit the usefulness of the software-I want to look at several markets (the major ones) for reference, and at least two timeframes of the market I'm trading. If you have a screaming fast computer, you can still do this with Tradeguider, but even a medium-fast computer will crash or hang with more than a few charts up at once. Personally, I think they desperately need to find a better computer engineer to rewrite the software so it is more streamlined.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Regarding the Tradeguider software, I took a 30 day trial with it using eSignal datafeed, and Tradeguider was abysmal, crashing constantly. When I spoke to Gavin by phone, he suggested deleting some of my charts, so I was only looking at one or two at a time. I told him that I could, of course, but that this would limit the usefulness of the software-I want to look at several markets (the major ones) for reference, and at least two timeframes of the market I'm trading. If you have a screaming fast computer, you can still do this with Tradeguider, but even a medium-fast computer will crash or hang with more than a few charts up at once. Personally, I think they desperately need to find a better computer engineer to rewrite the software so it is more streamlined.

 

You're right, a fast computer is way better. I run mine on my old laptop sometimes and it's slow but on my trading desktop I've got 10+ charts going plus tradestation and all works well.

This is why their 30 day money back is so important. If it doesn't work for you then send it back.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Let's see if the ol' Tingull is getting this "test" thang down...

 

chart_station_-_parallels_desktop-20071105-150958.jpg

 

On the mark.

 

A lower close and a close on the high would make this the ideal text book example, but it is nonetheless a nice example of a test.

 

Don't forget that a test needs to be confirmed on either the next bar or the bar after that with a close HIGHER than the close of the test bar.

 

Keep up the good work TG. You are making us all better traders and I for one say thank you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tingull.

 

Your missing the most important bar.

Thats Bar 5 back from the last bar.

This is clearly an Exhaustion bar.

Wide range massive volume and the NEXT day is an up day indicating exhaustion of supply.

The following down days have decreased volume.

Your marked bar is confirmation of bar 5

IMPORTANTLY followed by an up day.

 

Id be interested in how this went on as the wide range last bar on low volume is indicating lack of demand.

 

As for the software.

I have both EOD and Realtime. 7 bourses

Both perform without a glitch. Only ASX equities on realtime.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On the mark.

 

A lower close and a close on the high would make this the ideal text book example, but it is nonetheless a nice example of a test.

 

Don't forget that a test needs to be confirmed on either the next bar or the bar after that with a close HIGHER than the close of the test bar.

 

Keep up the good work TG. You are making us all better traders and I for one say thank you.

 

Thanks pivot...so you know, that really means a lot to me. you're the one that introduced this all to me and it's made a world of difference to how I see the markets. So, I owe it all to you.

 

And glad I finally posted up that classic test. I'll still probably just use my loose definition of it regarding candle patterns...but glad to get it nailed.

 

Thanks tech/a, too, for your description.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tingull.

 

Your missing the most important bar.

Thats Bar 5 back from the last bar.

This is clearly an Exhaustion bar.

Wide range massive volume and the NEXT day is an up day indicating exhaustion of supply.

The following down days have decreased volume.

Your marked bar is confirmation of bar 5

IMPORTANTLY followed by an up day.

 

Id be interested in how this went on as the wide range last bar on low volume is indicating lack of demand.

 

As for the software.

I have both EOD and Realtime. 7 bourses

Both perform without a glitch. Only ASX equities on realtime.

 

 

Thanks tech/a...got the description on your previous post.

 

As for how it turned out...that was a 15min chart of IWM.

 

chart_station_-_parallels_desktop-20071106-063801.jpg

 

That's how it finished the day....higher, and this morning, indicated higher, too. That was a test of the 2 day low in a descending triangle...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tin.

 

If interested I have daily US charts if you want to try some examples on them I can post the Tradeguider charts to help out as examples if you like.

 

Or I could find either realtime ASX charts to demonstrate/discuss or EOD ASX.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks tech. I do think I've got a grasp on the VSA concepts, I just don't use hard and fast rules to determine things like a test. If you want to post up some charts, by all means do. I'm sure many people can get something out of it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tingull.

 

Your missing the most important bar.

Thats Bar 5 back from the last bar.

This is clearly an Exhaustion bar.

Wide range massive volume and the NEXT day is an up day indicating exhaustion of supply.

The following down days have decreased volume.

Your marked bar is confirmation of bar 5

IMPORTANTLY followed by an up day.

 

Id be interested in how this went on as the wide range last bar on low volume is indicating lack of demand.

 

As for the software.

I have both EOD and Realtime. 7 bourses

Both perform without a glitch. Only ASX equities on realtime.

 

Actually, it is the 6th and 5th bars back.

 

The 6th bar is down with ultra high volume and closes near the middle of the range with the next (5th) bar up. A transfer of ownership bar. THAT IS WHY THE TEST IS SO POWERFUL.

 

Note that if there had been selling on the 6th bar , there was no more selling at the same price levels when the test happened. This is of course, what a test is testing for.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks tech/a...got the description on your previous post.

 

As for how it turned out...that was a 15min chart of IWM.

 

chart_station_-_parallels_desktop-20071106-063801.jpg

 

That's how it finished the day....higher, and this morning, indicated higher, too. That was a test of the 2 day low in a descending triangle...

 

 

While I don't spend much time thinking about targets, clearly the first target here would be a close of the Gap. As the saying goes, "Gaps are filled". Many traders trade gaps. If you had seen the test and the strength prior to it, then there would be all the more reason to trade the gap to the upside.

 

It should also be pointed out that we are looking at one timeframe only.

 

Nice trade. We don't have to hit a homerun every timed. Bat for average.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
While I don't spend much time thinking about targets, clearly the first target here would be a close of the Gap. As the saying goes, "Gaps are filled". Many traders trade gaps. If you had seen the test and the strength prior to it, then there would be all the more reason to trade the gap to the upside.

 

It should also be pointed out that we are looking at one timeframe only.

 

Nice trade. We don't have to hit a homerun every timed. Bat for average.

Hi Pivot,

 

In terms of profit taking, if I remember correctly, you like to trail your stops just below the low of the last WRB, and let the market take you out as opposed to setting targets.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Pivot,

 

In terms of profit taking, if I remember correctly, you like to trail your stops just below the low of the last WRB, and let the market take you out as opposed to setting targets.

 

Which is why I don't spend much time thinking about targets. However, for those who do and trade gaps, I was just showing that the gap was filled and that would be the first logical target for that type of trade. Hence the term, gap trade.

 

I would still be long with a stop just below the candle 4 back. Whic is both a WRB and a Long Shadow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a pic of the EURO.

 

This is an example of Looking left to trade right. We look to the higher timeframe to indicate how we want to trade the lower one. When it all comes together, the higher timeframe will often LEAD the lower one. That is, it will actually show a signal PRIOR to a signal on the faster moving chart. Sometimes this takes patience, but said patience is usually rewarded.

 

Interstingly, there was a valid set up during the low volume time which occurs before the big news hits the air. In other words, one could of already been long when the euro jumped up. This begs the questions, What did the Smart Money know and when did they know it?

5aa70e4dd2130_post670.thumb.PNG.b44a0a34feceb875d693643b3331381d.PNG

Edited by mister ed
Add back chart

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good Trade PP, do you trade Dax or YM?

 

Who is for catching a falling knife:)

 

This morning's price action on Dax 2min, breakout of morning range with gusto, over 3000 contracts on a 2min bar, real effort to fall, cut through all pivot levels with no buyers on retracement, until final capitualtion and short covering with vol. followed by a classic test, the move after that may look small but with 25Euro per point, a very lucrative trade.

5aa70e1cc1df8_DAX2min7thNov..gif.9aac4592b31203a4547669a9b5ae8b3f.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You'll usually see a test break into new low ground to "test" an area underneath the previous low. A No Supply bar will usually not break new ground lower than the previous bar.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Pivot,

 

In terms of profit taking, if I remember correctly, you like to trail your stops just below the low of the last WRB, and let the market take you out as opposed to setting targets.

 

What is a WRB?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 19th April 2024. Weekly Commodity Market Update: Oil Prices Correct and Supply Concerns Persist.   The ongoing developments in the Middle East sparked a wave of risk aversion and fueled supply concerns and investors headed for safety. Hopes for imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve diminish while attention is now turning towards the demand outlook. The Gold price hit a high of $2417.89 per ounce overnight. Sentiment has already calmed down again and bullion is trading at $2376.50 per ounce as haven flows ease. Oil prices initially moved higher as concern over escalating tensions with the WTI contract hit a session high of $85.508 per barrel overnight, before correcting to currently $81.45 per barrel. Oil Prices Under Pressure Amid Middle East Tensions Last week, commodity indexes showed little movement, with Oil prices undergoing a slight correction. Meanwhile, Gold reached yet another record high, mirroring the upward trend in cocoa prices. Once again today, USOil prices experienced a correction and has remained under pressure, retesting the 50-day EMA at $81.00 as we moving into the weekend. Hence, despite the Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran, sentiments stabilized following reports suggesting a measured response aimed at avoiding further escalation. Brent crude futures witnessed a more than 4% leap, driven by concerns over potential disruptions to oil supplies in the Middle East, only to subsequently erase all gains. Similarly with USOIL, UKOIL hovers just below $87 per barrel, marginally below Thursday’s closing figures. Nevertheless, volatility is expected to continue in the market as several potential risks loom:   Disruption to the Strait of Hormuz: The possibility of Iran disrupting navigation through the vital shipping lane, is still in play. The Strait of Hormuz serves as the Persian Gulf’s primary route to international waters, with approximately 21 million barrels of oil passing through daily. Recent events, including Iran’s seizure of an Israel-linked container ship, underscore the geopolitical sensitivity of the region. Tougher Sanctions on Iran: Analysts speculate that the US may impose stricter sanctions on Iranian oil exports or intensify enforcement of existing restrictions. With global oil consumption reaching 102 million barrels per day, Iran’s production of 3.3 million barrels remains significant. Recent actions targeting Venezuelan oil highlight the potential for increased pressure on Iranian exports. OPEC Output Increases: Despite the desire for higher prices, OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have constrained output in recent years. However, sustained crude prices above $100 per barrel could prompt concerns about demand and incentivize increased production. The OPEC may opt to boost oil output should tensions escalate further and prices surge. Ukraine Conflict: Amidst the focus on the Middle East, markets overlooking Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Potential retaliatory strikes by Kyiv on Russian oil infrastructure could impact exports, adding further complexity to global oil markets.   Technical Analysis USOIL is marking one of the steepest weekly declines witnessed this year after a brief period of consolidation. The breach below the pivotal support level of 84.00, coupled with the descent below the mid of the 4-month upchannel, signals a possible shift in market sentiment towards a bearish trend reversal. Adding to the bearish outlook are indications such as the downward slope in the RSI. However, the asset still hold above the 50-day EMA which coincides also with the mid of last year’s downleg, with key support zone at $80.00-$81.00. If it breaks this support zone, the focus may shift towards the 200-day EMA and 38.2% Fib. level at $77.60-$79.00. Conversely, a rejection of the $81 level and an upside potential could see the price returning back to $84.00. A break of the latter could trigger the attention back to the December’s resistance, situated around $86.60. A breakthrough above this level could ignite a stronger rally towards the $89.20-$90.00 zone. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past perfrmance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 18th April 2024. Market News – Stock markets benefit from Dollar correction. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Technical buying, bargain hunting, and risk aversion helped Treasuries rally and unwind recent losses. Yields dropped from the recent 2024 highs. Asian stock markets strengthened, as the US Dollar corrected in the wake of comments from Japan’s currency chief Masato Kanda, who said G7 countries continue to stress that excessive swings and disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were harmful for economies. US Stockpiles expanded to 10-month high. The data overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented recent attack. President Joe Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum.   Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex stumbled, falling to 105.66 at the end of the day from the intraday high of 106.48. It lost ground against most of its G10 peers. There wasn’t much on the calendar to provide new direction. USDJPY lows retesting the 154 bottom! NOT an intervention yet. BoJ/MoF USDJPY intervention happens when there is more than 100+ pip move in seconds, not 50 pips. USOIL slumped by 3% near $82, as US crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels last week, hitting the highest level since last June, while gauges of fuel demand declined. Gold strengthened as the dollar weakened and bullion is trading at $2378.44 per ounce. Market Trends:   Wall Street closed in the red after opening with small corrective gains. The NASDAQ underperformed, slumping -1.15%, with the S&P500 -0.58% lower, while the Dow lost -0.12. The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng gained more than 1. European and US futures are finding buyers. A gauge of global chip stocks and AI bellwether Nvidia Corp. have both fallen into a technical correction. The TMSC reported its first profit rise in a year, after strong AI demand revived growth at the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. The main chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. recorded a 9% rise in net income, beating estimates. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
    • Date: 16th April 2024. Market News – Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows. Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected retail sales eliciting a broad sell off in the markets. Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a 50-50 chance. Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week’s declines amid the rise in yields. Investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation. There’s growing anxiety over earnings even after a big beat from Goldman Sachs. UK labor market data was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated – The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE. China grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon. Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook. Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Financial Markets Performance:   The US Dollar rallied to 106.19 after testing 106.25, gaining against JPY and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level. Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed. USOIL is flat at $85 per barrel. Market Trends:   Breaks of key technical levels exacerbated the sell off. Tech was the big loser with the NASDAQ plunging -1.79% to 15,885 while the S&P500 dropped -1.20% to 5061, with the Dow sliding -0.65% to 37,735. The S&P had the biggest 2-day sell off since March 2023. Nikkei and ASX lost -1.9% and -1.8% respectively, and the Hang Seng is down -2.1%. European bourses are down more than -1% and US futures are also in the red. CTA selling tsunami: “Just a few points lower CTAs will for the first time this year start selling in size, to add insult to injury, we are breaking major trend-lines in equities and the gamma stabilizer is totally gone.” Short term CTA threshold levels are kicking in big time according to GS. Medium term is 4873 (most important) while the long term level is at 4605. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 15th April 2024. Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict. However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict. New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70. The Yen dip against USD to 153.85. USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce. Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180. Market Trends:   Asian stock markets traded mixed, but European and US futures are slightly higher after a tough session on Friday and yields have picked up. Mainland China bourses outperformed overnight, after Beijing offered renewed regulatory support. The PBOC meanwhile left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged, while once again draining funds from the system. Nikkei slipped 1% to 39,114.19. On Friday, NASDAQ slumped -1.62% to 16,175, unwinding most of Thursday’s 1.68% jump to a new all-time high at 16,442. The S&P500 fell -1.46% and the Dow dropped 1.24%. Declines were broadbased with all 11 sectors of the S&P finishing in the red. JPMorgan Chase sank 6.5% despite reporting stronger profit in Q1. The nation’s largest bank gave a forecast for a key source of income this year that fell below Wall Street’s estimate, calling for only modest growth. Apple shipments drop by 10% in Q1. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.