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GlassOnion

Are New Traders Who Are Successful Hated ?

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[/highlight red]

yes of course i believe that a newcomer can meet the six month deadline.

I have not been a party to such an achievement but i hold the desire to succeed

in any person, as almost immeasurable.

 

What i do believe however is that the question of time/achievement in trading is too complex to be boiled down into two camps ....yes/no.

Since your insightful contributions account for almost a quarter of the posts, i imagine this subject to close to your heart and i admire that and i think that you do care.

 

I entered this game fifteen years ago with no experience of trading other than running a forex book for my companies and when i decided to switch to futures (after a couple of half decent cognacs) and reading a few books, i received a big surprise.

[highlight red]what i had read and what was happening were quite unrelated.

that is when i shut down my pc and thought the problem through.

It is after all a logical problem that requires a logical thoughtful approach.

What it demanded of me was more energy and commitment than i thought that a retired guy should give initially, but now it keeps me young.

 

Dear John,

Wise words.

I think I will borrow them for a new signature.With permission

You sound like you and I went to different schools together.

kind regards

bobc

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...

 

2) Far from being "abstract," a goal of making a living is very concrete, so long as one knows what it really costs to finance one's living. There is nothing abstract about a goal of generating a minumum of $70K per year in short-term trading profits in order to fund one's existence.

 

...

 

 

 

That's right, the goal itself is crystal clear. The requirements are not. I was referring to the requirements and "what it means" to achieve that goal. I was not clear in my wording. Sorry, my bad.

 

 

 

...

 

5) What good would understand "x different methodologies" do me? I would think I only need one.

 

...

 

 

 

Yes, the problem is, you don't know which one. And you don't know whether you have to "invent" a methodology for yourself in order to achieve that goal (that includes also the intelligent tweaking of existing ones).

 

And that's also the point with reading many books, etc. You have to gain a lot of knowledge in order to be able to create a customized method which suits YOUR psychology.

 

 

Just think of the goal of becoming a surgeon or a pilot. Irrespective of the fact that you have to get degrees etc. in order to be able to work as one, no one expects that they have the abilities to work as one after only six months of studying. But so many people expect exactly that from trading.

 

If it helps, read "Traders" by Mark Fenton-O'Creevy, Nigel Nicholson, Emma Soane, and Paul Willman. It's a book about institutional traders, their mindset and the management of them. There you can read that starting traders have to learn for 6 months along experienced traders before being allowed to take their first trade and then only with strong supervision. And you can read also that trader managers state that it takes at least 2-3 years for their traders to be ready to trade completely on their own. They have to work with different experienced traders in order to see different trading styles.

 

And remember, that these are traders

 

1) who were smart enough to be recruited by the banks

 

2) who work in professional environments with many resources they can make use of

 

3) who are pointed into the right direction right from the start.

 

At least points 2) and 3) are not available for most retail traders.

 

In my opinion, the mindset, that making a living in trading is achievable easily is exactly the reason why most retail traders fail. This includes those who do not put enough time and effort into it, but also those who give up after six months as they could not reach their goal.

 

Anyway, I wish you good luck with your goal.

 

 

PS: I should note that I've underestimated trading as well and thought that it should be manageable to make a living after six to nine months... now I know better... at least for myself. I've needed about 17 months working full-time on my trading, which is still very fast from my current point of view. But the costs for this were several blown up trading accounts and a lot of pain I've went through (live trading right from the start). I sincerely wish anyone to achieve their goals faster and with much less pain.

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PS: I should note that I've underestimated trading as well and thought that it should be manageable to make a living after six to nine months... now I know better... at least for myself. I've needed about 17 months working full-time on my trading, which is still very fast from my current point of view. But the costs for this were several blown up trading accounts and a lot of pain I've went through (live trading right from the start). I sincerely wish anyone to achieve their goals faster and with much less pain.

 

1) You have spent 17 months working full-time as a trader. Are you now supporting yourself financially from your trading profits, or are you drawingfrom savings or another source of income.

 

2) Why has it been so difficult for you?

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Hi 40draws,

 

It is Saturday and I imagine you are replaying trading charts.

I greatly admire your enthusiasm and I am not going to pollute your mind with my

opinion or my experiences, but I am going to help you on your way with two pieces of advice.

 

1 ..do not open any windows other than the price window

2 ..do not apply anything to the price window other than horizontal lines.

 

Also, I am going to throw in a huge bonus.

If at any time you ask me for my qualifications as a Trader, I shall ignore your question.

This means that I shall never lie to you, which is an enormous bonus on an open forum and especially this one.

 

So just to recap ... no indicators .. no windows other than price ... no lines, highlights or notations other than horizontal lines on your price window.

And no BS

 

goodluck and we will talk again in five months.

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If at any time you ask me for my qualifications as a Trader, I shall ignore your question.

 

I haven't asked this of anyone, nor would I. Now, if you were to tell me that I couldn't possibly succeed in a mere six months, because you yourself spent seventeen months working full-time at becoming a trader, I might ask, for the sake of clarification, if you meant you had started 17 months ago and you are still working on it, i.e. seventeen months down and now you are working on month eighteen, or if you meant it took you seventeen months from the time you started on, for example, January 1, 2007 until you finally achieved profitability in May 2008, and that since that time you have been supporting yourself primarily as a trader. That would hardly be asking for your qualifications as a trader. That is merely asking you to make your meaning plain.

 

If you tell me you are a success, I'll take you at your word. I'm not one to ask a stranger to prove anything to me. I've gotten where I am by worrying about myself, and not what the other fella is doing. I do not care nor need to know whether you or anyone else are a successful trader or merely a fifteen year old pulling my chain. Given enough interaction, I trust I could figure it out on my own without the need to ask.

 

As for charts, mine are fairly bare bones affairs. My trades are short term - most being open and closed within the same trading session, while others are held for a few days. I do have a line struck at the current session's opening trade price and also at the prior day's closing price. I also write down yesterday's high and low using a lowly pencil and wide ruled paper in a 17 cent notebook. Other than that, any notes or annotations which I think may be helpful for review are drawn after the trade is closed using a separate screenshot edited in paint. In other words, the only lines on my chart in my charting software are yesterday's close and today's open. I also use volume, and that is plotted in a subpane of the main price window.

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the advert that appeared on this page ...

fxoro

 

Quick and easy way to trade big.....:doh:

 

40draws.....if you are wanting to just be patient, wait for the right trade setup and stick to that, then yes it can be done. It might not necessarily be scalable, it might be tough work sitting there waiting, waiting waiting, and you might not need a lot of money as margin to do it. It can all be done. Your aim is consistency.

The problem may be - can you do it. Can you sit and wait, can you focus for that setup and do nothing in the meantime, can you stand it when you lose money etc.

This is the hardest part IMHO and just one reason people are skeptical - good luck

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I haven't asked this of anyone, nor would I. Now, if you were to tell me that I couldn't possibly succeed in a mere six months, ......................................................... In other words, the only lines on my chart in my charting software are yesterday's close and today's open. I also use volume, and that is plotted in a subpane of the main price window.

 

 

Excellent start 40draws.......

 

1 ... you don't owe me or anyone else an explanation of your actions or beliefs

2 ... you are here to learn and Learners ask questions .. what is your question?

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1) You have spent 17 months working full-time as a trader. Are you now supporting yourself financially from your trading profits, or are you drawingfrom savings or another source of income.

 

2) Why has it been so difficult for you?

 

 

Yes, but I had to reduce my expenses considerably as my capital base suffered a lot during my 17 months "learning period", i.e. I was drawing from my savings during that time for living expenses and my trading.

 

But I have to say, that I have not yet proved to be able to make a living long-term as I am not yet profitable for years (see my earlier post). My approach has to prove itself in various phases of the market. Only then can I make a statement like this.

 

However, how long I or anybody else has needed to become profitable is irrelevant for someone else, as people and their requirements and possibilities differ very probably. All I've wanted to say is that one should be realistic in setting goals in trading and don't underestimate what it takes in time and effort to get where you want to be.

 

It has been difficult for me, as it took me some time to build a customized method which meets my risk/return parameters, in which I believe 100% and which suits my personality best. There is so much BS out there, as you have already mentioned. And in fact, like BlueHorseShoe mentioned, in today's world, there is actually too much information, so that it's difficult for a newbie to distinguish good from bad.

 

What we have not yet discussed is the requirements one has for making a living. If you can make a living by getting a return of 8% p.a. then you can achieve your goal maybe easier/faster than someone who needs a return of 20-30% p.a. or even more on a consistent basis to be able to make a living. That should be considered as well.

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...it took me some time to build a customized method which meets my risk/return parameters, in which I believe 100% and which suits my personality best...

 

That statement of yours indicates to me that your experience and your approach to this businesss, and probably your view of life generally, is vastly different from my own. With the exception of risk, the rest is foreign to the manner in which I have approached and structured my study. Such a difference likely will lead to a vastly different result.

 

I'm not passing judgement. I am just noting a difference between us that strongly implies to me that if it were possible to graph your journey and my own from a common temporal beginning, our paths would almost immediately, and necessarily, diverge.

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Hi 40draws

Joined August 2012

One months experience

Read all the books

Slick answer after slicker answer

Its a con.

I will say no more

bobc

 

You never know whether I am who I say I am or a fifteen year old pulling your chain. However, I'm as unclear on the nature of the "con" with which you are apparently charging me as I am with the source of your "flabbergastedness" that resulted from one of my earlier posts. If I am not mistaken, you are also the one who said I was heaping disrespectful remarks on DbPhoenix. I insist that all of my exchanges with DbPhoenix have been nothing short of respectful. I do not understand your attitude toward me. It is one thing to disagree with me, and if you think me on a fool's errand, so be it. You're entitled to your opinion. But to call me a con borders upon hostility.

 

"Joined August 2012, one months experience": As I said, I'm technically now in week six, and we all have to start somewhere. My interest in the markets had previously been limited to more or less blindly investing in mutual funds in my Keough. A chance viewing of an infomercial for a day trading school as I flipped through the tv channels early, early one morning was the catalyst that started my investigation of the possibility of trading actively for an income. I actually called that school that day. The experience of that phone call led me to decide that I needed to learn as much as I could on my own first, as my sense from talking to their "admission counselor" was that he was a con.

 

"Read all the books": I've read twenty-six books, or about 4.25/week. Most of these are pretty quick reads, well-written, and thus easily and quickly understood. If a book was not easily understood, if it was poorly written, or if I found myself struggling to make sense of it, I closed it and never looked back. At least six books fit that criteria, so technically I read twenty or so books, and started but failed to finish six or so. I'm about done with the books, however. I am awaiting a twenty-seventh, Techniques of Tape Reading, based upon a review of this work by DbPhoenix. It should be here Monday evening, and I would estimate that I will have finished a first read no later than Wednesday before I lay me down to bed.

 

"Slick answer after slick answer": I'm flabbergasted. Well, perhaps not flabbergasted, but at least slightly bewildered.

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... ... "Read all the books": I've read twenty-six books, or about 4.25/week. Most of these are pretty quick reads, well-written, and thus easily and quickly understood. If a book was not easily understood, if it was poorly written, or if I found myself struggling to make sense of it, I closed it and never looked back. At least six books fit that criteria, so technically I read twenty or so books, and started but failed to finish six or so. I'm about done with the books, however. I am awaiting a twenty-seventh, Techniques of Tape Reading, ... ...

 

Would love to see a list of those books, including the six you didn't like. Any chance?

 

I have read 'Techniques of Tape Reading' which I found to be a disappointment as not really much in there about tape reading actually. Not much good anywhere on tape reading which is possibly due to fact that so many algos are playing games. What we need is a book on 'The games HFT algos play'. :)

 

Good luck with your quest. For what it's worth I do think you should set aside more than six months before deciding to continue or not. All depends on your goals of course, and you also need a lot of live experience in that time with real money to really know if you can do it.

 

Richard

Hong Kong

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I read a lot of stories on here about how people had to go through this long, torturous process to become successful at trading Forex. It's so common that it almost seems like there's a union mentality about the whole thing. You know, the whole "you gotta pay your dues" and "you gotta get crapped on a lot before being successful" type of thinking. You can see written in between the lines of what people post here.

 

If someone was successful right out of the gate, I have to wonder if they should just keep it to themselves. My guess is that those who have already made up their minds that nobody can go from zero to making a living at this game in 6 months would call someone a liar who decided to share their success after actually pulling it off. After all, it's natural human psychology to tear down what something that doesn't jive with one's pre-conceived notions than to challenge their one's own beliefs.

 

When I first responded to this discusion, I have to admit that I had not really read the author's initial post as thoughtfully or as literally as I should have. Instead, what sparked my attention and prompted me to participate was the phrase "from zero to making a living at this game in 6 months." I ignored the thrust of the question posed.

 

Had I read it thoughtfully, and actually answered the question, I would have said something along the lines that "of course no one would hate someone for succeeding - after all, I take one person's success to indicate to me that my success is also possible." However, the orientation of many respondents seems to be the opposite: "I have been doing this for years, and I haven't been able to succeed, so how dare you think you might be able to do in six months what I have been unable to do in six years."

 

I have not made any claim to be making a living at the trading business. I simply said I was a new trader, and I was giving myself six months either to show myself this is a viable business for me or not. Given the tenor of most of the responses, the original author's suspicians have been proven to be well-founded.

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I have found three to be worth studying, and five or six worth reserving for further study.

 

5) What good would understand "x different methodologies" do me? I would think I only need one.

 

Here's a question I'd pose to the community as a whole: Forget about trading for a living - who among us has ever taken any money out of their trading account that was profit, and not merely part of the initial funding, and then used those profits for anything, whether paying a bill, buying a bag a groceries, or indulging in a personal product purchase, or anything at all? And who has never withdrawn even one penny of profit, perhaps instead throwing good money after bad to keep the trading account open as they chase this apparently elusive goal of "trading for a living?"

 

Thanks for feedback 40draw, I agree with you. One method for a newbie should well good enough. I am also learning price action, but mainly focus on my trading plan for now.

 

Do you mind sharing the three books to be worth studying?

 

I have never taken money out the account for profit as I just started trading future about 4 months ago actively.

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That's right, the goal itself is crystal clear. The requirements are not. I was referring to the requirements and "what it means" to achieve that goal. I was not clear in my wording. Sorry, my bad.

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, the problem is, you don't know which one. And you don't know whether you have to "invent" a methodology for yourself in order to achieve that goal (that includes also the intelligent tweaking of existing ones).

 

And that's also the point with reading many books, etc. You have to gain a lot of knowledge in order to be able to create a customized method which suits YOUR psychology.

 

 

Just think of the goal of becoming a surgeon or a pilot. Irrespective of the fact that you have to get degrees etc. in order to be able to work as one, no one expects that they have the abilities to work as one after only six months of studying. But so many people expect exactly that from trading.

 

If it helps, read "Traders" by Mark Fenton-O'Creevy, Nigel Nicholson, Emma Soane, and Paul Willman. It's a book about institutional traders, their mindset and the management of them. There you can read that starting traders have to learn for 6 months along experienced traders before being allowed to take their first trade and then only with strong supervision. And you can read also that trader managers state that it takes at least 2-3 years for their traders to be ready to trade completely on their own. They have to work with different experienced traders in order to see different trading styles.

 

And remember, that these are traders

 

1) who were smart enough to be recruited by the banks

 

2) who work in professional environments with many resources they can make use of

 

3) who are pointed into the right direction right from the start.

 

At least points 2) and 3) are not available for most retail traders.

 

In my opinion, the mindset, that making a living in trading is achievable easily is exactly the reason why most retail traders fail. This includes those who do not put enough time and effort into it, but also those who give up after six months as they could not reach their goal.

 

Anyway, I wish you good luck with your goal.

 

 

PS: I should note that I've underestimated trading as well and thought that it should be manageable to make a living after six to nine months... now I know better... at least for myself. I've needed about 17 months working full-time on my trading, which is still very fast from my current point of view. But the costs for this were several blown up trading accounts and a lot of pain I've went through (live trading right from the start). I sincerely wish anyone to achieve their goals faster and with much less pain.

 

This is a very good post to read.

 

I don't recommend to start something like trading and expect consistence in trading in 6 months. However, think of how far you come in 6 months. I think its all about having the right practice as Db mention to me. Because I wasted 3 months studying the wrong thing with all this indicator stuff when the data was right in my face. I then started trading live and I lost real money. I think back and that was silly. Now I trade sim until I my plan and structure is consistent and profitable.

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Thanks for feedback 40draw, I agree with you. One method for a newbie should well good enough. I am also learning price action, but mainly focus on my trading plan for now.

 

Do you mind sharing the three books to be worth studying?

 

I have never taken money out the account for profit as I just started trading future about 4 months ago actively.

 

Hi goodoboy,

 

Here is a list I posted earlier:

 

Here is what I've been reading:

 

Understanding Wall Street, Jeffrey Little

 

Studies in Tape Reading, Richard Wyckoff

 

Tape Reading & Market Tactics, Humphrey B. Neil

 

In adition to these, the books I've read that I have kept to read again are Wyckoff's Stockmarket Technique, vol. 1 & 2, Stock Market Profits by Schabacker, How to Make Money in Stocks, by Wiliam O'Neil, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre, and How to Trade in Stocks by Jesse Livermore.

 

The Jeffrey Little book is a basic textbook, e.g. what is a share of stock, how Wall Street works, the role of investment banks, etc.

 

The Wyckoff and Neil books are similar, in that both explain price movements in terms of the relationship between price and volume. Neil is not an advocate of day trading, whereas Wyckoff presents it as a potential way for someone to make a profession out of wall street operations alone. In adition to these two books, I found a website by a trader named Linda Raschke where she had a couple of articles, on on Tape Reading, that sort of helped point me in how to make a practical start with the Wyckoff and Neil method. I'll hunt down the links later and post them here so long as it would not violate the traderslaboratory rules. I'll send a PM to the moderator and ask first.

 

I am taking a small draw tomorrow from last week's activity. I have been trading using my smart phone, and I want to buy a lap top and set it up with mobile broadband. My current business is such that I am traveling about 90% of the workday which puts me out of the office for 100% of the trading session on most days. My business plan calls for all future trading related expenditures to be funded out of trading profits. This first draw will pay for a trading laptop, accessories (car charger, case, etc.), and mobile broadband service from September through January.

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Hi goodoboy,

 

Here is a list I posted earlier:

 

 

 

The Jeffrey Little book is a basic textbook, e.g. what is a share of stock, how Wall Street works, the role of investment banks, etc.

 

The Wyckoff and Neil books are similar, in that both explain price movements in terms of the relationship between price and volume. Neil is not an advocate of day trading, whereas Wyckoff presents it as a potential way for someone to make a profession out of wall street operations alone. In adition to these two books, I found a website by a trader named Linda Raschke where she had a couple of articles, on on Tape Reading, that sort of helped point me in how to make a practical start with the Wyckoff and Neil method. I'll hunt down the links later and post them here so long as it would not violate the traderslaboratory rules. I'll send a PM to the moderator and ask first.

 

I am taking a small draw tomorrow from last week's activity. I have been trading using my smart phone, and I want to buy a lap top and set it up with mobile broadband. My current business is such that I am traveling about 90% of the workday which puts me out of the office for 100% of the trading session on most days. My business plan calls for all future trading related expenditures to be funded out of trading profits. This first draw will pay for a trading laptop, accessories (car charger, case, etc.), and mobile broadband service from September through January.

 

Thanks, you should trade ES futures. I trade it and I like it. Better than searching for stocks.

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If your a new trader and successful which statement is true?

 

1. Another trader is teaching & mentoring you

2. You are a new trader learning on your own & successful

 

If your new & successful however not learning from another trader I would say keep your mouth shut, get your ego in check because more than likely your a "flash in the pan" so to speak. A person with success early on without much training the odds are against you & I don't hate you because the market(s) need order flow (Thank you). I thank you because eventually you will be order flow.... :missy:

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Would love to see a list of those books, including the six you didn't like. Any chance?

 

I did post and re-post a list of the ones I found to make sense to me. Of course, the fact that they make sense to someone who knew nothing six weeks ago, and may now only think he knows something, should give you or anyone pause in taking up a book or method on my recommendation.

 

I considered your request that I names the books I didn't like, and after some thought, I'd rather not say. After all, to be fair, posting those titles would imply that I was making a critical judgment on their value, and I am not qualified to say anything other than the books I've listed above "made sense" to me, while others I've not mentioned by name left me unclear, uneasy, unsure, at times a bit baffled, and at others completely confused. That likely says as much or more about me than it does about them.

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If your a new trader and successful which statement is true?

 

1. Another trader is teaching & mentoring you

2. You are a new trader learning on your own & successful

 

If your new & successful however not learning from another trader I would say keep your mouth shut, get your ego in check because more than likely your a "flash in the pan" so to speak. A person with success early on without much training the odds are against you & I don't hate you because the market(s) need order flow (Thank you). I thank you because eventually you will be order flow.... :missy:

 

I assume you're directing this at me, and I don't know why, unless you're a trading mentor who sells mentoring and training services, and the idea of someone teaching himself to do this is bad for business.

 

Whatever the reason, you obviously have not read my posts. I am learning from other traders, primarily Richard Wyckoff and Humphrey Neill. Again, had you read my posts, then that is information you would have known.

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What we need is a book on 'The games HFT algos play'. :)

 

You'll find something like that here:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/day-trading-scalping/13811-daytraders-do-you-know-your-enemy.html

 

I don't pretend to be any kind of an expert on these things - I'm just slowly trying to piece together a picture of how they operate within this thread.

 

BlueHorseshoe

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I am taking a small draw tomorrow from last week's activity. I have been trading using my

smart phone, and I want to buy a lap top and set it up with mobile broadband. My current

business is such that I am traveling about 90% of the workday which puts me out of the

office for 100% of the trading session on most days. My business plan calls for all future

trading related expenditures to be funded out of trading profits. This first draw will pay for

a trading laptop, accessories (car charger, case, etc.), and mobile broadband service

from September through January.

I worry when I read something like the above.

 

Two things:

 

Years ago, when I was 18 yrs old, I bought a lottery ticket for $2. The draw yielded me a $20 prize ... $18 profit. This was in the late

1960's. My income was $36/week at that time, and so ... that early success in my gambling career started me on the path to near

ruin, as I attempted many times, and in many forms, to emulate that feat over and over.

 

You can read between the lines on that.

 

Secondly, you can not chase two rabbits - one of them is going to evade your efforts to trap them. Either your business is going to

suffer, or your trading is going to suffer, and if you have one, your family is going to suffer from having an absentee partner/dad.

 

Who is paying for your time, while you are out of the office, and attending to trading matters?

 

Yourself? Good.

Your boss? Hmmm.

 

If it's your boss, wouldn't you serve him/your conscience better by looking at your trading education in your own time?

Just a thought. I invite you to tell me to mind my own business, because this really is none of my concerns at all.

 

My message is to encourage you to persevere, and I congratulate you for having the insight to establish some sort of structure in

your approach. I would add a rider, that your time-frame for establishing success is very tight, putting more pressure on you than

you may realise. As the 6-month deadline approaches, you might need to extend that, if you are making measurable headway.

 

Further, you need to understand that you are embarking on a journey that potentially can destroy your family life, and estrange you

from many of the things you currently enjoy - including your health.

 

I am certain you have taken these issues into account, and my words are already redundant in your case. But trading is every

bit a full-time pursuit, in my experience, and if you want to have any quality of life outside of this occupation, it is likely that you

will eventually move to the higher time-frames, if you are not already working at that level.

 

Certainly I am no trader's shining light, but these are my observations.

 

Good luck with your journey, and thanks for sharing your vision and story.

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    • Date: 19th April 2024. Weekly Commodity Market Update: Oil Prices Correct and Supply Concerns Persist.   The ongoing developments in the Middle East sparked a wave of risk aversion and fueled supply concerns and investors headed for safety. Hopes for imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve diminish while attention is now turning towards the demand outlook. The Gold price hit a high of $2417.89 per ounce overnight. Sentiment has already calmed down again and bullion is trading at $2376.50 per ounce as haven flows ease. Oil prices initially moved higher as concern over escalating tensions with the WTI contract hit a session high of $85.508 per barrel overnight, before correcting to currently $81.45 per barrel. Oil Prices Under Pressure Amid Middle East Tensions Last week, commodity indexes showed little movement, with Oil prices undergoing a slight correction. Meanwhile, Gold reached yet another record high, mirroring the upward trend in cocoa prices. Once again today, USOil prices experienced a correction and has remained under pressure, retesting the 50-day EMA at $81.00 as we moving into the weekend. Hence, despite the Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran, sentiments stabilized following reports suggesting a measured response aimed at avoiding further escalation. Brent crude futures witnessed a more than 4% leap, driven by concerns over potential disruptions to oil supplies in the Middle East, only to subsequently erase all gains. Similarly with USOIL, UKOIL hovers just below $87 per barrel, marginally below Thursday’s closing figures. Nevertheless, volatility is expected to continue in the market as several potential risks loom:   Disruption to the Strait of Hormuz: The possibility of Iran disrupting navigation through the vital shipping lane, is still in play. The Strait of Hormuz serves as the Persian Gulf’s primary route to international waters, with approximately 21 million barrels of oil passing through daily. Recent events, including Iran’s seizure of an Israel-linked container ship, underscore the geopolitical sensitivity of the region. Tougher Sanctions on Iran: Analysts speculate that the US may impose stricter sanctions on Iranian oil exports or intensify enforcement of existing restrictions. With global oil consumption reaching 102 million barrels per day, Iran’s production of 3.3 million barrels remains significant. Recent actions targeting Venezuelan oil highlight the potential for increased pressure on Iranian exports. OPEC Output Increases: Despite the desire for higher prices, OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have constrained output in recent years. However, sustained crude prices above $100 per barrel could prompt concerns about demand and incentivize increased production. The OPEC may opt to boost oil output should tensions escalate further and prices surge. Ukraine Conflict: Amidst the focus on the Middle East, markets overlooking Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Potential retaliatory strikes by Kyiv on Russian oil infrastructure could impact exports, adding further complexity to global oil markets.   Technical Analysis USOIL is marking one of the steepest weekly declines witnessed this year after a brief period of consolidation. The breach below the pivotal support level of 84.00, coupled with the descent below the mid of the 4-month upchannel, signals a possible shift in market sentiment towards a bearish trend reversal. Adding to the bearish outlook are indications such as the downward slope in the RSI. However, the asset still hold above the 50-day EMA which coincides also with the mid of last year’s downleg, with key support zone at $80.00-$81.00. If it breaks this support zone, the focus may shift towards the 200-day EMA and 38.2% Fib. level at $77.60-$79.00. Conversely, a rejection of the $81 level and an upside potential could see the price returning back to $84.00. A break of the latter could trigger the attention back to the December’s resistance, situated around $86.60. A breakthrough above this level could ignite a stronger rally towards the $89.20-$90.00 zone. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past perfrmance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 18th April 2024. Market News – Stock markets benefit from Dollar correction. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Technical buying, bargain hunting, and risk aversion helped Treasuries rally and unwind recent losses. Yields dropped from the recent 2024 highs. Asian stock markets strengthened, as the US Dollar corrected in the wake of comments from Japan’s currency chief Masato Kanda, who said G7 countries continue to stress that excessive swings and disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were harmful for economies. US Stockpiles expanded to 10-month high. The data overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented recent attack. President Joe Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum.   Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex stumbled, falling to 105.66 at the end of the day from the intraday high of 106.48. It lost ground against most of its G10 peers. There wasn’t much on the calendar to provide new direction. USDJPY lows retesting the 154 bottom! NOT an intervention yet. BoJ/MoF USDJPY intervention happens when there is more than 100+ pip move in seconds, not 50 pips. USOIL slumped by 3% near $82, as US crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels last week, hitting the highest level since last June, while gauges of fuel demand declined. Gold strengthened as the dollar weakened and bullion is trading at $2378.44 per ounce. Market Trends:   Wall Street closed in the red after opening with small corrective gains. The NASDAQ underperformed, slumping -1.15%, with the S&P500 -0.58% lower, while the Dow lost -0.12. The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng gained more than 1. European and US futures are finding buyers. A gauge of global chip stocks and AI bellwether Nvidia Corp. have both fallen into a technical correction. The TMSC reported its first profit rise in a year, after strong AI demand revived growth at the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. The main chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. recorded a 9% rise in net income, beating estimates. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
    • Date: 16th April 2024. Market News – Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows. Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected retail sales eliciting a broad sell off in the markets. Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a 50-50 chance. Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week’s declines amid the rise in yields. Investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation. There’s growing anxiety over earnings even after a big beat from Goldman Sachs. UK labor market data was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated – The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE. China grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon. Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook. Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Financial Markets Performance:   The US Dollar rallied to 106.19 after testing 106.25, gaining against JPY and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level. Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed. USOIL is flat at $85 per barrel. Market Trends:   Breaks of key technical levels exacerbated the sell off. Tech was the big loser with the NASDAQ plunging -1.79% to 15,885 while the S&P500 dropped -1.20% to 5061, with the Dow sliding -0.65% to 37,735. The S&P had the biggest 2-day sell off since March 2023. Nikkei and ASX lost -1.9% and -1.8% respectively, and the Hang Seng is down -2.1%. European bourses are down more than -1% and US futures are also in the red. CTA selling tsunami: “Just a few points lower CTAs will for the first time this year start selling in size, to add insult to injury, we are breaking major trend-lines in equities and the gamma stabilizer is totally gone.” Short term CTA threshold levels are kicking in big time according to GS. Medium term is 4873 (most important) while the long term level is at 4605. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 15th April 2024. Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict. However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict. New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70. The Yen dip against USD to 153.85. USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce. Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180. Market Trends:   Asian stock markets traded mixed, but European and US futures are slightly higher after a tough session on Friday and yields have picked up. Mainland China bourses outperformed overnight, after Beijing offered renewed regulatory support. The PBOC meanwhile left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged, while once again draining funds from the system. Nikkei slipped 1% to 39,114.19. On Friday, NASDAQ slumped -1.62% to 16,175, unwinding most of Thursday’s 1.68% jump to a new all-time high at 16,442. The S&P500 fell -1.46% and the Dow dropped 1.24%. Declines were broadbased with all 11 sectors of the S&P finishing in the red. JPMorgan Chase sank 6.5% despite reporting stronger profit in Q1. The nation’s largest bank gave a forecast for a key source of income this year that fell below Wall Street’s estimate, calling for only modest growth. Apple shipments drop by 10% in Q1. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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