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mohsinqureshii

Market Overview July,30 2012

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EUR/USD

 

The EUR/USD continues to gain momentum. Trading closed at 1.2300 on Friday. Overall Market was moving on higher notes. The disappointing US GDP although at forecast, leaves traders hoping for monetary stimulus from the Feds this week. As a lot of fundamental factors are releasing this week that would affect dollar and indirectly the euro price.

Euro is expected to carry its move in this week, looking ahead into the coming week, markets are likely to remain on toes with some heavyweight economic data slated for release in terms of the FOMC rate decision and job numbers from the U.S. With Job market in the U.S still sluggish and hampering other indicators, market watchers would be fervently looking for the Nonfarm Payrolls data next week to take a better account of the labor situation in the world’s largest economy.

Today Market is expected to carry its move around 1.2310 putting its support at 1.2232 and resistance at 1.2378.

 

Fundamentals to Effect Euro

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=30206&stc=1&d=1343638672

 

Chart Representation

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=30205&stc=1&d=1343638672

 

GBP/USD

 

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.5722, which is a very misleading number. The GBP has no support and no reason to be trading at such levels, except that the US dollar weakened so over the past few days.

As the ECB President Draghi vowed to save the euro, the euro gained momentum pushing the greenback downwards. On Friday, the negative GDP print in the US also pulled the USD downward and the forecast of monetary stimulus this coming week from the Fed has again weakened the USD.

In London, everyone is at the Olympics so no one cares about FX at the moment; they are all chasing other metals.

As there is no reason for the euro to move up except USD downward movement, so today market move is quite unexpected, it may move down if the USD influence is diminished. Market move is expected around a price range 1.5718 putting its support at 1.5670 and resistance at 1.5771

 

Fundamentals to Effect GBP

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=30208&stc=1&d=1343638672

 

Chart Representation

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=30207&stc=1&d=1343638672

 

Gold

 

Gold is trading at 1617.85 holding its gains from previous week starting as markets have shift the safe haven of the USD and the JPY to gold. As a result of USD price downward movement. Market has shifted his trend to invest in metals instead of crosses and stocks.

Gold trend line is upwards moving and gold is expected to carry its movement even higher than last week’s ending day movements.

Today Market is expected to move in price area around 1621.6 putting its support at 1614.5 and resistance at 1631.9.

 

 

Chart Representation

 

>attachmentid=30209&stc=1&d=1343638672

 

Silver

 

Silver movements are somehow connected with gold movements. As the gold is moving on higher notes so is silver. Investors are considering these metals as safe heaven. Last week GDP coming out from US side was quite unexpected, that left the USD being weaker.

Today Silver is expected to move around a price area of 27.65 putting its support at 27.47 and resistance at 27.95.

 

Chart Representation

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=30211&stc=1&d=1343638672

 

Dow Jones Index

 

Under the influence of upward moving market DJI is also moving upwards, as it has crossed the price level of 13000 on Friday touching 13061.

It can be said that it is a result of dollar index downwards movement that has made DJI to move upwards.

Today Market is expected to move around 12967 putting its support at 12873 and resistance at 13124.

 

Chart Representation

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=30204&stc=1&d=1343638672

 

Crude Oil

 

Crude Oil was largely ignored in Friday’s trading, holding at 89.50, as investors waited for the 2nd quarter GDP numbers. Although the print met expectations, forecasts were set so low, that the report was disappointing. The prior quarter GDP was at 2.0% and this quarter was revised to 1.5% which is a huge drop.

With the US one of the largest consumers of crude oil, and a drop in growth to this extent, will force a downwards revision to crude oil consumption levels and demands for the balance of the year, pressurizing prices. So a steady move is expected in Oil prices.

Today Market is expected to move around 89.92 putting its support at 89.40 and resistance at 90.71.

 

Chart Representation

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=30210&stc=1&d=1343638672

 

Support and Resistance

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=30212&stc=1&d=1343638672

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EUR/USD

 

The EUR/USD continues to gain momentum. Trading closed at 1.2300 on Friday. Overall Market was moving on higher notes. The disappointing US GDP although at forecast, leaves traders hoping for monetary stimulus from the Feds this week. As a lot of fundamental factors are releasing this week that would affect dollar and indirectly the euro price.

Euro is expected to carry its move in this week, looking ahead into the coming week, markets are likely to remain on toes with some heavyweight economic data slated for release in terms of the FOMC rate decision and job numbers from the U.S. With Job market in the U.S still sluggish and hampering other indicators, market watchers would be fervently looking for the Nonfarm Payrolls data next week to take a better account of the labor situation in the world’s largest economy.

Today Market is expected to carry its move around 1.2310 putting its support at 1.2232 and resistance at 1.2378.

 

 

I will suggest that we will get a reaction at around 1.2170 which could stop an attempted target of 1.2115-ish for today. If there is no order flow in that direction, then it'll likely attempt to press to the 1.24 area, trapping the shorts that were placed over the last few hours.

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