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Dunstan

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Australian Dollar

COT Change (52W) / C – 45%, LS – 59%, SS – 12% /

Both of our major cot signals are showing positive signs for the market: we have had a major change in Traders positions and with it we have reached a considerable bullish stress level. I would say that the chances are high for further increase.

 

Coffee

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

The picture speaks for itself! Beautiful bullish extreme close to support levels.

 

30-Year Bond

COT Extreme / LS – 679 report COT extreme /

Interesting to see such a large bearish extreme when prices are not actually that high… I wouldn’t be betting large on further declines, but who knows. I would rather look for other opportunities that are more obvious (like coffee for example).

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

Report51_AUD.thumb.png.2c5ab2b0f87bb671c40469af5ac953de.png

Report51_Coffee.thumb.png.a9d6bcbf745ecbb9caf34c2f6469993a.png

5aa712a3cb2b7_Report51_30-YearBond.thumb.png.04c82b1bca7e8c4c98b3a19e73177029.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

S&P-500

COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 28%, SS – 15% /

Not only do we have a bearish cot change signal in the market, but we have the extreme risen to pretty large levels again. The cot report is definitely backing the notion that we are in a bubble :)

 

Euro

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

We have never seen Large Speculators being so bullish about Euro in the past, so we can assume that it is likely we will see an end to rally in Euro soon…

 

Heating Oil

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

The picture is pretty clear here as well… (ohh I just love these all-time cot extreme signals…) We should start positioning ourselves for a more bearish market to come

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

5aa712a3d1189_Report1_SP-500.thumb.png.d591da64fd72de02bb9ed334e2f08917.png

Report1_Euro.thumb.png.34117df60582c0d8f8aad0dd75292826.png

5aa712a3dd76d_Report1_HeatingOil.thumb.png.ea7e491e313357dd69b0d4dfe703f8cf.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

S&P-500

COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 53%, SS – 10% /

One word: Crazy…

 

Euro

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

As the market moved further up, the extreme has become even greater… The question is not IF it is going to burst, but WHEN?

 

Heating Oil

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

Not much changed from last week. Prices could not gain too much, but the extreme became larger.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

5aa712a3e4084_Report2_SP-500.thumb.png.418ca1fa99332aaa8dd47cc88b6a0dcc.png

5aa712a3eb3a6_Report2_HeatingOil.thumb.png.9f098ef751f79cac33313d1d98d675e5.png

Report2_Euro.thumb.png.2aea5783b262f5f95ebf06d93324b860.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Natural Gas

COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 30%, SS – 12% /

Due to the bearish cot change signal we could see a bit of a decline in the market, but the fact that the last cot extreme signal was bullish and effective, we should be prepared for further rallies in Natural Gas.

 

Crude Oil

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

All Time bearish cot extreme, but (!) caution is advised as stated in the cot review -> these extremes can stay for a few weeks or even months before the market trend starts to shift.

 

British Pound

COT Extreme / LS – 174 report COT extreme /

Not an all time extreme, but significant enough to be careful. The cot report is signaling an end to the rally in GBP.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

Report3_NG.thumb.png.c1be8a38c77609f81917537bfb23c784.png

Report3_CL.thumb.png.6a75f652c6bd2e1fbc58a3250dc137ac.png

Report3_GBP.thumb.png.dff51f8a5e835d3ecded78f9d1fd314e.png

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Hi everyone,

 

Sorry for being out for so long, have been struggling with a virus... getting better:)

 

I just wanted to let you know that I have been monitoring this new service that COTbase has built, it is called Futures Trading Guides. Check out the results, really impressive! I have been testing it in my own trading and to tell you the truth, I am pretty satisfied with what I see! :)

 

You can see the system here:

 

All the best,

Dunstan

5aa712a620c6d_ResultsforJanuary312018.thumb.png.d5116d7b7da3b3cb15413292164ce154.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Dow Jones-30

COT Change (52W) / C – 57%, LS – 42%, SS – 34% /

Huge bullish cot change signal, but we should not be surprised, since there has been a very large drop in prices. The signal suggests higher prices early this week.

 

Crude Oil

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

Last week’s decline may have confirmed the top we have been waiting for since we have had this all time cot extreme in the market.

 

Cocoa

COT Extreme / C – 65, LS – 64 report COT extreme /

Not much here… I’d say that the last major bullish cot extreme is still in place: I’m expecting higher prices to come.

 

You may want to check out the following cool video about FuturesTradingGuides.com, the service I have mentioned not long ago. They have enhanced their results page and you can now see the system’s performance on a longer time horizon!

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

5aa712a70307a_Report6_DowJones-30.thumb.png.9b5113378cb24c40d9b32a84ceb26380.png

5aa712a70975e_Report6_CrudeOil.thumb.png.f0b0a03270c2f834cd794effa5029b63.png

Report6_Cocoa.thumb.png.a5edf758821b00ec321422380bbcbe2e.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Soybeans

COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS – 21%, SS – 12% /

The cot change signal is clearly bearish (maybe influencing the market early this week), but the extreme is not that obvious. Large Speculators were at these levels roughly a year ago, but other than that, the bullish cot extreme from 5 weeks ago is still acting. So my assumption is this: we may see a bit of a decline, but it should not be long lived and thus we could easily see the continuation of the rally.

 

Soybean Meal

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Unquestionable bearish cot extreme --> be prepared for lower prices to come.

 

Dow Jones-30

COT Extreme / C, LS – 91 report COT extreme /

Interesting to get to a bullish extreme so fast (under a month), but looking at the price action, our surprise should be washed away:)

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

Futures Trading

Report8_Soybeans.thumb.png.edb6f3e79509ebdbfa58e211dcd349c1.png

5aa712a8406d4_Report8_SoybeanMEal.thumb.png.ec373579aedf908245d4031cf3339711.png

5aa712a8460a2_Report8_DowJones-30.thumb.png.47be845a8f481f858a1f5ea83bdd8c14.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Soybeans

COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS – 19%, SS – 5% /

COT Extreme / C - 53, LS – 52 report COT extreme /

The rally continued, the extreme became larger, but it is questionable whether or not it is large enough to make any changes to the rally. The cot change signal suggest a pullback in this rally.

 

Soybean Meal

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

The extreme became even greater… Eyes on this market ;)

 

Silver

COT Extreme / C - 133, LS – 778 report COT extreme /

Huge bullish cot extreme in Silver suggesting higher prices to come!

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

Futures Trading

Report9_Soybeans.thumb.png.d4ff75f25fad3e0a7110264705459377.png

5aa712a8b7829_Report9_SoybeanMeal.thumb.png.d8534b2b71b790e93aa047c8e253d142.png

Report9_Silver.thumb.png.86f8722748b5b438c1232a9e649b9209.png

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Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Gold
COT Change (52W) / C – 19%, LS – 19% /
Bullish cot change signal possibly pushing prices higher the next few days, but no extreme.

Silver
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Further increase in the cot extreme here. Great example that all time extremes could be with us for pretty long time before the market reacts. FuturesTradingGuides is indicating a -51.79 FTG score on a short time frame and a -56.99 FTG score for medium term so actually even though we have this huge bullish extreme, I’m waiting…

British Pound
COT Extreme / C - 193, LS – 194 report COT extreme /
Huge Bearish cot extreme in GBP suggesting an end to this rally we have been witnessing since the beginning of 2017. 

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
Futures Trading

Report14_GBP.png

FTG_Silver short.png

Report14_Silver.png

Report14_Gold.png

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Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C – 15%, LS – 10%, SS – 22% /
Although we have this bearish cot change signal, I’d stay away from any short trade. Volume and OI analysis is supporting further rallies in the market and the extreme isn’t that significant either. 

S&P-500
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Interesting to see such a bearish extreme in S&P, when we have nothing similar in Nasdaq and the Dow… tricky situation that’s for sure. Nevertheless if someone is considering shorting here, they may be happy with the fact that the cot report is backing the trade.

British Pound
COT Extreme / C - 194, LS – 196 report COT extreme /
As prices gone higher, the bearish cot extreme has also become larger – no surprise here. 

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
Futures Trading

Report15_S&P-500.png

Report15_GBP.png

Report15_Rough Rice.png

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