Facebook Thread for Analysis & Investment

[minoo 11]

Refer yesterdays update

 

FB opened with massive Gap above, it opened below Yesterdays Low

It tested Previous Low (PL) from below and tanked

The Chart says it all.

[minoo 11]

A massive divergence between the collapsing FB share and Indices rising in premarket and opening with such Strong Market Internals figures second day running

 

So it would be opportunistic trade to go long near Perhaps Historic low of a badly lagging stock with two consecutively larger gaps

 

Today percentage wise FB was seriously down (session open was below S3),

But Strong Positive Vol soon flowed in; This flow of Vol was Noteworthy and sustained till the test of S3 from below. As soon it turn to red around S3 I simply went flat

 

Nothing much to do or say when both $Tick and Net Vol are rising but to momentarily / timely commit to the floor (a good player will not confuse this with emotion as he would have exercised Patience first) It helps once you can read price and non-price data in real time (an Event).

Wish I continue to trade in this purposeful manner till the end of my time.

Rest charts can convey

 

(I feel a bit numb after I saw the 2012 Olympics Opening, . .. .. been a long day.)

 

GoodNight All.

[minoo 11]

Worth reading perspective on FB

 

Facebook (FB) Earnings - What The Market Is Ignoring About It | iStockAnalyst.com

 

I mostly tend to ignore news but timely figures or stats which will affect the Stock is noteworthy. To change current trend down and sentiment of the market is very challenging; I still am optimist on FB and will trade it for short timeframe when its declining. If FB starts rising than my trading methodology can scale-in and accumulate as well. This kind of decision best left to the price action. For Investment my trading plan is based on distribution or accumulation phase of instrument. If there is Market Bull or Bear evidence than I will consider it in my Market Structure & Big Picture analysis (weekly or monthly)

 

Read the first couple of my post in the thread ref to 23.5 area. But FB gapped down and tested this area from below & close 23.7ish. After trading FB I understand the stock better than previously. Rest is left to the price action & plan

 

I will leave it to the readers to comment on the article, Thanks for the link

 

Good trading to you all

Minoo

[zdo 20]

Preface: I rarely trade individual stocks and have very low prob of ever trading this one …I may be popping in out of context, even off topic... so jmo fwiw

 

I may have posted a similar link about this earlier in thread … basically FakeBook is an identity service…

 

Plus - the appeal of its format and look’n’feel, etc. is far from universal… it only ‘serves’ the style needs of a percentage of users … already approaching apex?

 

… related / of interest to this topic… http://cryptogon.com/?p=30595

[Predictor 11]

FB is essentially a busted momentum stock... this is not the type of stock that value buyers like. I'd be careful on this one. I see another 22% decline very possible with decline up to around 45% possible. However, I do think FB will eventually rebound and could do well long term -- although some competition from Google is already being demonstrated.

 

The problem with trying to time a turn around in something like this is that its likely to be very quick and catch most off guard... I don't trade options but they look to be a candidate. Buying deep OTM puts might be one way to play this...

[frankfx 10]

Even at $7 I think Facebook would be hugely overvalued. That would mean a market cap of around $15b for a co that made only $1b in profits last year.

 

Just like AOL,fb is a fade, people get way to caught up in what is hot for the day instead of looking at the large picture. Technology and the way we use the internet is changing faster and fast; do you really think that in 15 yrs from now kids will be signing up for fb? No way imo, fb will be history and long forgotten just like another wall st darling in its day; AOL

 

the fact that they did the IPO at valuation close to $100b is an insult to any sane rational investor. Even Google (which has 10 times the lasting potential into the future that fb does) went public well under $25b

 

you wrong - if the price will be somewhere at 7 dollars it will be more than ok...

as you said FB gained for about 1 billion - it means they business and it works and it will be more and more in the years

[jimbo320 10]

That IPO was prolly the worlds greatest rip off?

[jimbo320 10]

Is it available to short? If so I'd say short covering.

Perhaps it just became available to short, so GS can sell it, hence the bounce ....

[jimbo320 10]

Doubling up on face bunk? I hear it's going to 40$.

Or is it 4$.

[zdo 20]

fakebook...falue

 

charles hugh smith-The New Facebook Buttons: Promote, Despise, Abandon

[Perrin 10]

The only doubling up i'm doing is laughing at how misleading people has become an art form in this world that pays better than just about anything.

 

This is the new modern art isn't it?.This is cutting cows in half and despising and patronizing anyone who calls it bullshit.

20 million flies can't be wrong can they? So this is modern art for the masses instead of a few rich pretentious elite.

Nobody on the planet knows how to monetize bullshit better than Wall St.

 

Why, by now, do the 'general public' still believe in banks / tipsters / people in suits telling them that it is a good idea to buy a stock??

 

I wonder why 'Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds' isn't required reading in schools.

 

Of course, it is so nice and much easier to have someone tell you what to do. So that you don't have to think for yourself (not 'you' Mitsubishi! but I mean people in general, I am quite aware that you think for yourself!).

 

And how anyone who has been invovled in trading or the markets for more than 6 months can even consider believing a single word of any news release, is completely beyond me.

[minoo 11]

No I have not abandon the thread and FB

But just did not want to fly in the face of other traders opinions

So the cooling off period; I am a trader and I extremely care for my peace of mind, its more important to me than making big bucks

Just doing my thing and sticking to my system:

 

I exited FB today near the close

Far too much negative net-volume to my liking

And

On Daily chart, too many Gaps to fill below

Looks to me like a fake break out to the upside

Or

I have taken an early exit

Note: ES close was above the Session Open & towards the high

And

NQ below the Session Open & towards the low (BiPolar close)

 

Done extremely well so far trading this stock so quite please, an welcome entry to 2013

 

Greetings for The New Season to you All, Enjoy the 1st WeekEnd

Minoo

[celeron 10]

Beware to RESISTANCE BETWEEN $34 and $35 for Facebook stock.

 

Look this analysis on Facebook.

 

This is one of the best Gann Analysis ever made on Facebook stock.

[minoo 11]

FB Chart alerted me today twice just after the opening (RTH)

1st Alert when it came down at my previous bail out region of 28.8 ish

2nd Alert soon after, when it touched S4

(Both alerts were within five minutes of opening)

 

Monitored the first half hour of play, there was good net flow of positive vol with prices getting off the lows

So went long around 29.5 ish (1st Chart)

Futures direction was not too clear at the time of execution and NQ actually looked negative more than positive in the AM

As FB price quickly traded above 30 and consolidated a bit and progressed up,

I Scaled in 30.2 ish (2nd Chart)

 

Just trailed stops as price progressed comfortably towards Gap fill of 31.25; It was time to take some off as the Net Vol turned negative over the Gap fill level.

 

To be very honest Its not yet clear in me head, What made me take this trade today but somehow manage to do the right thing around the right time. Perhaps it had more to do with where I got out last time and missed out on the price rise; Today the price perhaps gave chance to my Ego to indulge and make good on the lost price action.

The only good thing I note is I didnot get involve in between or chase FB waited for the price to come to my alert levels; So am not frankly sure what to put in my Journal.

 

To be Patience and to Pounce Timely; Are equally important factors of Trading Discipline.

 

Enjoy Minoo

[celeron 10]

The bullish movement in progress, from $25.15, on Facebook stock has its natural target between $34 and $ 35.

And will be reached no later than 6 February, 2013.

 

Best regards.

[minoo 11]

Entry was more due to Area & Gap below (I took the first Short just below 29) with Net Vol getting Negative.

(Note The previous long was from Area above the 29.5; From the Daily one can see that the Zone between the 29.5 & 29 has become The No Trading Zone)

Anticipated Reward or Target was the Gap Fill Area

(Most probably would not have taken this trade if not for Gap Fill as it was against the Market Internals positive conformance)

Also had good opportunity to short a few more at the break of price pattern and support area confluence (Refer Chart )

 

At the Gap fill level Vol Bar and Net Vol were increasingly looking negative so did not exited the trade as plan at the time of Entry.

 

Mental Notes:

I am not sure why I didnot book even part profit at Gap Fill or at even Close

Instead thought of monitoring the position pre market opening

Perhaps the profit was comparatively small to previous Bookings

Also while writing this my mind is foolishly wavering whether the market will Gap Up or Down on Monday.

 

Making it work wrongly, may eventually take greater Toll, than one can sticking to ones own system. The best thing would be to get Stopped out and put this trade to the Learning Experience

 

Note:Though the Market Internals were positive today from the opening, At the time of shorting FB, ES seemed to have put in a intraday top.

 

 

Enjoy the Weekend

Minoo

[minoo 11]

Yes I am flat on FB I didnot get out on FB previously due to the lower impending Gaps of 3rd Jan at 27.77 and 20 Dec at 27.36 in the vicinity of downward price action remaining to be filled.

On Tues 12 Feb it did & I went flat just before it filled. Refer to the orange dash lines in the daily charts are Gap fill levels

 

I do try to keep the thread updated as best possible.

Sorry I do not know how to subscribe to threads confidentially or without contributing

 

(Please Note: I do not like mentioning options, keeping things simple here but I use them for few purposes instead of going short or holding stop loss, etc)

 

Thanks Minoo

[ntrader 10]

Facebook has just done exactly what it said it would do: Focus on growing the business, invest for the long-term, and ignore whiny short-term Wall Street traders.

[Ammeo 10]

I wonder how up can it go above 40, i personally think it'll consolidate in the $35/share-$40/share region..Investors will be wary buying it at this price.

[yaux 10]

Is facebook still worth the investment at 50 a share? Do you think twitter's IPO would even affect FB shareprices?

 

Would it be best to wait till after Twitters IPO release to invest in FB?

[Ammeo 10]

$50 will soon be coming again withi a month or two...this company could be the next google..

[Ammeo 10]

FB is going to jump again to above that $50 mark soon. Some analysts have predicted FB shares will be floating above the $65 mark in 2014. the Stock looks completely bullish atm.

[inthemoneystocks 11]

Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) has a classic bear flag that is forming under the 20 moving average on the daily chart. This is one of the better patterns you will see and ultimately tells of much further downside on the stock. Even today, the stock is underperforming a market that is flat. Facebook is trading at $68.21, -0.98 (-1.42%). Key supports will be $58.85 and $53.45.

 

 

Gareth Soloway

InTheMoneyStocks

 

[Vinayak 10]

Facebook has become the advertising outlet of choice for many of the world’s businesses and companies. Whenever there is a new product to test, a service to announce or event to promote, many organisations turn to Facebook to post news of the development.

 

To enable this, Facebook allows users to create pages devoted to specific topics. Visitors can then “like” the page and then receive updates about the topic as well as connect with others with similar interest. The number of likes is therefore an important measure of the popularity of the page and there is considerable prestige in having many likes.

 

However there is another way to promote Facebook pages. In recent years, a secret industry has emerged that sells likes to anyone willing to pay. These paid services inflate the interest in a Facebook page using “like farms” that generate likes on demand. Little is known about these services or how they generate likes. In particular, nobody is quite sure whether the likes come from automated bots or from paid human workers.

 

Read More: The Hidden World of Facebook "Like Farms" | MIT Technology Review

[Vinayak 10]

I think the WhatsApp purchase was a terrible idea. WhatsApp is mostly used in India and seeing as India's per capita income is low the people will start preferring Viber - the free option. Already I see a lot of Viber advertisements on Indian TV. So this begs the question, how is WhatsApp going to make all that money back.