Bund Reaction to ZEW + GDP Release

[lastninja2 10]

Hi there

 

Id like to discuss how FGBL reacted to the 10:00am London time data. I'll list them + expectations below...

 

German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment)

10.8 vs EXP 19.0

[Really bad... buy bund!]

 

German ZEW Survey (Current Situation)

44.1 vs EXP 39.0

[Quite good... but who cares about this one?]

 

Eurozone GDP SA

0.0% vs EXP -0.2%

[better than we thought... hmm, sell bund, buy stocks instead!]

 

 

As I recall, FGBL price fell on this data, from about 143.25 to 143.05 before it found decent support.

I figured the ZEW Economic Sentiment release of 10.8 would take precendent over the others, even the GDP. Seems maybe I was wrong.

 

Does anyone have an opinion on the relative weight of this GDP data vs ZEW Economic Sentiment?

Main reason I bring this up is... I've heard German data is prone to being leaked before the official release... maybe FGBL priced in the crappy Economic Sentiment data before 10:00am (Actually, the price did rally quite nicely before hand). That surprises me because I'd expect the Germans to be by-the-book!

 

Alternatively perhaps my assumption that bund should rally on disappointing German economic news is false. Afterall, I suppose it makes the German's ever-so-slightly less credit worthy :/ ?

 

Thanks for feedback

[prasannabhandarigal 10]

Today German bunds trend made a double top at very early hours...did any bund trader made gud amount of money from that? I made 570 euros by taking a short at a pullback price.

[Obsidian 10]

when money is involved don't count on that by-the-book

how markets will react to released data may change and may be unpredictable from time to time...just my observation...

[prasannabhandarigal 10]

I totally agree to obsidian...