Simple Trend Trade

[Mysticforex 13]

We've had 3 candles close above the 200 SMA... setup canceled.

[Mysticforex 13]

I have posted 6 setups so far. 3 went to profit, 3 did not open or I stood aside. No losers.

There will eventually be losers, but with the R/R we were able to use you should make more than you lose.

 

I started using this method about 5 years ago. It has proved to be dependable in just about all market conditions. It's not a Grand Slam, but I am able to eek some pips out of the market with it.

 

Should I continue with a few more examples?, or am I beating a dead horse?

[blueberrycake 10]

I've enjoyed reading you posts Mysticforex. No dead horse flagellation here. Thanks :-)

 

If you don't mind sharing --- what sort of overall profit factor (total profits / total losses) have you seen using this approach, over the time that you've been trading it?

 

-bbc

[Mysticforex 13]

I've enjoyed reading you posts Mysticforex. No dead horse flagellation here. Thanks :-)

 

If you don't mind sharing --- what sort of overall profit factor (total profits / total losses) have you seen using this approach, over the time that you've been trading it?

 

-bbc

 

I don't keep records that detailed. I record all my trades in a notebook. The trading platform has the time I entered a trade. If I can't remember why I entered a trade I check the time then the chart. Then it is usually clear to me why I entered.

 

The method shown here probably represents about 5% of my trading over the years, with a win rate of about 63-64%. I am primarily a counter trend trader, but the method I use for that while not complex is a little more detailed.

 

I will continue to post setups using "Simple Trend Trade" as long as there is demand, but none today. I am getting an early start to a long holiday weekend. Back for Tuesday London.

 

I will also see what I can come up with for a simple counter trend trade and start a new thread. I have also been meaning to start a thread for trading a range bound, ascending or descending channel using trend lines.

 

Have a good weekend.

 

 

I will continue to post setups

[Mysticforex 13]

Didn't see any opportunities today. Shortened trading week due to US holiday, coupled with NFP on Friday could produce a weird week.

[Mysticforex 13]

I didn't forget this thread, most pairs are moving down,we need prices to pop up a bit ( like they are doing now ) in order to resume shorts.

[Mysticforex 13]

With the bump in prices on Friday we are due for a resumption of trend, or at least a retrace.

Her is the GBP/USD... it is not quite oversold yet. We wait for it to become oversold, the on a "Good" bearish candle, with the stoch coming out of oversold we short. S/L would be a little above the most recenthigh. TP would be the area of support. There is weak support @ 15230 and some strong demand ! @15280.

[Mysticforex 13]

In the above post I should have said we are waitinf for the pair to become "Overbought"

In any event the setup is void because price is now above the 200 SMA.

[Mysticforex 13]

Ok, here's one we can watch. EUR/USD 4 Hour Chart.

 

Price is below the 200 SMA, so we are in a down trend. The stoch looks like it wants to go into overbought. Remember, don't jump the gun... wait for it to be overbought. Then if/when it comes out of overbought... with a "NICE" looking candle, short. TP would be a new low...

S/L would be just above the most recent high when the trade opens.

 

Play this one close to the chest. There is a lot going on we don't know about.

 

This is not a suggestion to buy or sell currency. It is just an idea on how to look for opportunity.

[Mysticforex 13]

The stoch is finally making it into oversold on this 4 hr chart.

[Mysticforex 13]

The setuo has opened on the EUR/USD 4 hour.

I am looking for 12400. If it were not Friday I might be looking for a retest of the recent low @12290.

[Mysticforex 13]

Stopped out of last weeks EUR/USD trade.

[Mysticforex 13]

Here's a possibility if it opens...

 

1 hour USD/CAD. Price just below 200 SMA, Stoch oversold. If we come out of oversold on a good bearish candle I would short to around the 10200 area. Stop would go a little above 10330.

[Mysticforex 13]

1 hour USD/CAD has opened and is currently in profit. I am moving my S/L to BE @10303.

I don't usually do this but in light of recent $$$ strength, and EU fears, I am doing so this time. I am also tired and want to get some sleep

[Mysticforex 13]

I let this one close out @ BE... I let self doubt creep in, and you know how the rest goes...

[Mysticforex 13]

2 Pairs worth watching into tomorrow. EUR/AUD and USD/CAD on the 1 hour chart.

Both are trading below the 200 SMA but moving toward it, the stoch is moving up on both as well. If we get into overbought on these, we will be looking to sell on the stoch coming out of overbought with a nice bearish candle. You can also view this as a bounce down off the 200 SMA.

I will be watching these and post if/when I see them open.

 

Here's the charts:

[Mysticforex 13]

USD/CAD has gone well above the 200SMA, Broke a previous high in fact. So that is off the table for now.

[Mysticforex 13]

EUR/AUD getting closer but not ripe yet. The current candle closes in 50 min...

Here's a chart on a different template I use. This one has a faster stoch, 50 sma,and 20sma.

This template might provide an earlier entry, but it is something I just started working with.

It's based on Steve Bigalow book, "High Profit Candlestick Patterns" Steve is a stock trader and money manager.