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mitsubishi

Beyond Taylor

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It would do no good to explain anything. Your mind is made up and shall remain that way. Good night Mitt. Have a great day tomm! I am not sure where you are located so it could be day where you are at. Anyway have a good one!

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Why Taylor? I for one was hoping we would get to the trends in time and someone might shed a light on how Taylor derived his arrow line next to the date in his original book examples.:)

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Mitt,

 

How are you today? Fine I hope. Hope you aren't too cantankerous today? Anyway, I arose early this morning and looked at my poor chart you had complicated with all your lines and suddenenly it hit me. It was in plain view the whole time. What I discovered was Mitt does indeed like lines. But they have to be horizontal and perfectly straight. That has to be what makes them magical?? Perhaps it is the ambiguity of curvy lines or slanted lines that you detest?

 

Anyway I don't want to continue along this same discussion but could not help sharing this discovery with the readers of the thread. Mitt, it is all in fun so please don't get upset!

 

Are you ready for a BUY day? Today is a BUY day you know.

 

I don't know I am getting the gambling bug taking swipes at me. If I can't squash it I may just have to let it bite me. As long as I don't let it bite too bad or too many times it will be OK won't it?

 

One final word:

 

Lagging indicators:

 

Stoch

MA (all of them curvy lines) including crossovers..triple..double..single ...etc

Trendlines (including clothlines and any other angle lines)

Channels (all the variations of such including fishing and boat channels)

Triangles (ascending..descending..weird shaped one... the whole class of triangles)

Flags (bull..bear..penalty..i.e. the whole family of flags)

Pennants

Wedges

Advance/decline (if you want to call it an indicator)

Boll bands (and any other type of band aid)

There are many others. Too many to list here but they are all lagging. OOPS...But there is one more I want to place here.

PRICE ACTION

 

Now all the PA people can come and stone me in front of the altar of the PA. You will hear nary a word from me. I shall keep my mouth shut and die bravely.

 

Remember it is a BUY day this beautiful bright sunny day in my area of the world. It is a good day for a gamble. Maybe I will go all in today?

 

Anyway Mitt happy trading today. Please post some more Taylor stuff as maybe we could figure out how to label his stuff to be leading indicators instead lagging. Boy, now that would really be a major discovery.

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Here is a snapshot of part of my software that helps me get pre-market info in my head. Notice the label Tomm Forecast. Three things:

 

1) This is EOD software so the calculations are made after close on 3-27 and the forecast is for 3-28

 

2) Please do not get tripped up by my the semantics. Nobody can predict or forecast the market. That said, what did you want me to label it? "Possible PA Senarios for tommorrow"?

 

3) Like any thing else sometimes it is almost on the money, other times it can be a little off. Sometimes it is WAY off. Too bad institutions and the HFT don't look at my forecast and go by it. :)

 

There are many calculations in my software but one other pre-market figure I look at that isn't here that I will give (as opposed to posting another screen shot) is the average range. That is 14.98 points.

 

As you can see I have three possibles lows to look at and three possible highs (there are some others but I won't get into to that). The low/high at the top are the forecast for 3-28. It may be right . It may be wrong. If it is wrong I have two others I look at. If all are proving way off as the day progresses then I will re-enter the data and recalculate and see if some aberration in the PA/Cycle has caused the forecast to be so far off. Sometimes, that results in the softaware re-labeling the day of the cycle for me and then I have to work off that new info.

 

Why am I posting this snap shot? Well..just showing how I prepare pre-market to trade Taylor style. I have nothing to sell. I am not promoting any product. I am not dangling a carrot. I have nothing to give but a few concepts here and there. The last I shared got shot down :embarassed: I am not tooting my own horn. I am to old to toot. Anybody..can program (if they can program) the same stuff here in this snap shot. You just have to think it through. You may find this useful. If not, no problem. Its a free world (at least in most places). This snapshot give me a view for Taylor Trading. Then as the day progresses I will scalp (for me scalping is generally 1 to 3 points) using my complicated 5 minute chart with my two moving averages on it. Again, these just help me see the intermediate trend and the more immediate trend. I do not, nor expect, the market to obey them. How could the market obey them? It doesn't even know I have them on my chart. They are just lines. They mean nothing. The 89 SMA is used simply because it "seems" good for portraying the proper slope from tick data to about one or two weeks out. That is, the slope that helps me gauge the short/long senario as mentioned in my previous posts. These MA's just help me see a visual slope. When you are old and can't see good sometimes lines help. Now, at times during the day I may draw lines on a pattern I see emerging. Usually, I will delete those lines after they are no longer useful to me. Sometimes they aren't even useful. But that is ok with me. I can live with trading being a stumbling around in the fog and not a black and white issue. I try to keep my chart clean. Why do I look for patterns? Well, it helps me in my scalping decisions. Anyway today is a BUY day. Good trading.

 

PS Please no "you cannot predict the markets or forecast" I don't have the energy to argue anymore. I am too old :)

I WILL STATE AGAIN: I KNOW YOU CAN'T PREDICT OR FORECAST THE MARKETS.

 

However, you can try to anticipate them...maybe.

5aa710e2ecfd6_ESsnapshot3-282012.jpg.e7145ba81d4bf915b35ada18aaf9c622.jpg

Edited by WHY?

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WHY?,

which language is your program?Do you manualy enter your data?

Unfortunately the data for futures has to be entered manually. It was originally designed for trading stocks and at the time I used TC2000 has my data source so it was programmed to accept EOD data from them. However, it isn't a big deal to enter EOD ES data or even 1 hour data..or 15 minutes..it gets distracting entering 5 minute as you don't have much time for analyis afterwards.

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You are correct WHY today for me is a buy day.(actually in the cycle it is a sell day).Today i bought 1398 level it is a perfectly mathmatical level and if you are observant of the correct chart with your horizontal lines drawn in the correct place it was a gift.One member here on this forum has time stamped email/charts from me to him of the full details of my trading today.But it is a meaningless statement really as it is just one days trading.I would have to start a journal here and prove over the very long term that i have any edge over a "wavy" line.

We can disagree all day about these issues but the thread is about Taylor and he had a belief system about how markets operates that is pretty much what my belief system is about.

And that is

A) The market is not random

B) The market is manipulated by the main players in order to maximize their profits

C) They buy when the market is falling and sell when it is rising and short sell when others are buying the top BUY SELL then SHORT SELL Each cycle is a campaign executed with precision and discipline.

D) But as they carry out their campaign they leave their footprints on the charts.Footprints that a skilled chart reader can identify if he is prepared to do the work and ignore most of the rubbish posted on trading forums,written in books and sold in seminars.Therefore there are optimal times to enter/exit and other times to stand aside and await the next signal.

 

They do not operate on a whim or because they are bored or use 57 tools to do their job

That is what amateurs do.What i find strange about you is you seem to have grasped all that Taylor said in his book,executed a live trade in a professional way but yet you seem to be carrying over a lot of baggage from your past learning curve.My advice is to let it go,but that is not my problem,just my opinion.I do have strong views and that's because i worked damned hard to earn the right to hold those views.

Actually the discussion may not be that far off topic if you consider how Taylor's sound approach and discipline differs from many traders here.

And yes,i am in great spirits today the weather here in UK is like a summers day thanks for asking and same to you;)

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ok we are into a little sideways trading range here (marked for benefit of explanation). The bias is still short. So what would I do next? Well, I would wait for a breakout. I would prefer to see the breakout heading south some more. But lets say there is a breakout heading up. Unless I felt like gambling I would just pass it up until I see the price rise enough to get PA up above the 89MA and the 20 EMA above the 89 MA. Of course, I might be successful scalping the up move but then again it may not be much of an up move because the bias has been down. When I see price rise above the 89 and the 20 EMA above it then I know the more immediate trend and the intermediate trend has shifted its bias towards the long side enough that I would be comfortable looking at scalping from the long side. Tactics would be scalping pullbacks, reversals, breakouts, spikes from the long side once the price and 20 EMA is above the 89 SMA.

5aa710e309a39_ESscalprange3-28-2012.jpg.9c2a4891da014f8386f07b5e5a739084.jpg

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We have reached our expected range of just over 19 points. I would look at going long for a taylor play in the 1392 to 1395 area. It is more risky than what I like because:

 

1) the bias is still short but the market has moved its expected range already (see my screen shot in previous post).

 

2) It made this low zone later in the day. I like to see this by 10:30 central time.

 

3) Because of the additional risk I would trail it up with a stop to lock in profit when taking a long postion.

 

4) If it breaks down out of this range then I would immediatley exit the taylor long with as smalla loss as possible and wait for a better position and go back to scalping the short side.

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You are correct WHY today for me is a buy day.(actually in the cycle it is a sell day).Today i bought 1398 level it is a perfectly mathmatical level and if you are observant of the correct chart with your horizontal lines drawn in the correct place it was a gift.They do not operate on a whim or because they are bored or use 57 tools to do their job

 

That is what amateurs do.What i find strange about you is you seem to have grasped all that Taylor said in his book,executed a live trade in a professional way but yet you seem to be carrying over a lot of baggage from your past learning curve.My advice is to let it go,but that is not my problem,just my opinion.I do have strong views and that's because i worked damned hard to earn the right to hold those views.;)

Mitt the post was actually a helpful post except for the whim..the bored...the 57 tools...and the word amateur. While I may be guilty (at times) of the first two I certainly am not of the latter two. I'd appreciate a truce here???? By the way are you hanging in there on your 1398 long or have you jumped ship yet? I don't know you may be a trader that will let the market go 10 points against you. I prefer to jump ship and look for a better position.

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well guys I gotta run. Unfortunately, I don't have the time to wait for a Taylor play as I have some errands to do but basically, I would now go long between 1389 and 1392 (I never did take a taylor position) but I would watch it closely trail it to lock in any profits as the bias is still strong short side. However, I would do this within the next 30 minutes. If I couldn't do this within 30 minutes then I would skip the taylor play for today as we may or may not get an afternoon rally. My final opinion. Taylor play is a gamble today. Not feeling up to it and have other things to do. The scalping to the short side was great today. 89SMA 20 EMA Happy trading.

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Mitt the post was actually a helpful post except for the whim..the bored...the 57 tools...and the word amateur. While I may be guilty (at times) of the first two I certainly am not of the latter two. I'd appreciate a truce here???? By the way are you hanging in there on your 1398 long or have you jumped ship yet? I don't know you may be a trader that will let the market go 10 points against you. I prefer to jump ship and look for a better position.

 

Truce? we were never at war,not a bit of it.;) I must learn to be more open minded and patient with other peoples views and explanations. You handled all the provocation like a person who is secure with how he trades, enough said.

I am holding 1398 long as i believe this is a very good entry with the proviso that conditions have not changed. I do not set an arbitrary stop loss or target on a trade,it depends on the context of the trade.I'll give you my context on this trade.

I do not allow the market to pick my pocket on small stops.Why i have a real aversion to scalping and looking at small time frames etc,is because this is exactly the environment where the market picks your pocket.A trader who is on the right side of the market should avoid taking a loss unless market conditions have changed.That is the point where i consider that i am wrong.

With this trading approach you need to have very good probability entries and pass on those that imply a higher risk.

If you compare your trading activity today to mine it is clear that you had more decisions to make than me,and you wondered if 98 going to 97 was the beginning of another leg down for example.This is where a combination of reading the chart having identified in advance the key levels pays off.I had my plan i traded it and i am holding.You will have more false signals on a lower time frame than if you concentrate on the larger context.To me,that is the tail wagging the dog.I don't want to work hard,i want to work smart.I don't want to do 6 trades and end up B/E or worse,when i can do 1 trade and only lose if the bigger picture has changed.This is how i attempt to put the probability in my favor.The market gets no say in this decision it is in the trader's hands.During the course of say a 3 month period you also have to ask yourself,how much return have i made compared to market exposure? (time) With my approach,when it is done right,you let the market do all the heavy lifting for you.This idea came to me as a result of being taught a lesson with losses.If you can let a loss build up,then you can let a profit build up.Sitting tight is difficult but so is the stress of large losses.I'm in profit now and i want to bank it;who knows what tomorrow will bring? But my analysis (unless i change my view tonight) says sit tight.

And tonight it's harder to sit than usual as i have a problem with one of the 3 W''s.

What just happened? but rather What didn't happen? (which really is the same Q)

The cash market on the 27th did not reach the equivalent level that the futures made the night before ie 1425. And now we have had a pullback in which i have to ask,is this a healthy pullback or is it the start of something bigger?

If you believe markets are manipulated you could view the move to 1425 as a deception and a better short sell opportunity than beginning that operation from 1419 the actual high on the day.There's a group of players who are one step ahead.So that is on my mind,normally i'd be happier.Off the top of my head the last pullback of significance was 37 points for comparison.

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WHY- the chart you posted shows high volume at my entry price.Volume = effort,result of effort=closed off the low.Do you or anyone have a different read on that?
Your entry bar was heavy selling. The bar before was also heavy selling. The 5 bars before that were selling but lighter. The bar with high vol around 9:30 was heavy selling...then a couple of more bars with selling ...then the pullback...then starts the 5 bars of lighter selling I just mentioned. Now, the bar after yours was heavy selling right after the open but then buying came back in on that bar before the close and it close up high. Thus it entered the trading range where the bulls and bears battled it out. However the range bound trading had more selling (the amount of bear bars indicate that ..count them) but the bulls battled back before finally giving up on the break down out of the range. The way I trade ranges like this is short the top and cover at the bottom. Then long at the bottom and sell long at the top providing I can get at least 1 point scalping. That means a 6 tick range to allow for execution etc. If it is a tight range then I would not trade it but wait for a breakout. Edited by WHY?

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You are correct WHY today for me is a buy day.(actually in the cycle it is a sell day).Today i bought 1398 level it is a perfectly mathmatical level and if you are observant of the correct chart with your horizontal lines drawn in the correct place it was a gift.

 

Mitt,

 

I have taylor question for you. I say taylor because your post mentions3-28 being sell day. I am assuming you were looking at going long on a BV (buying day violation by your count).

 

1) Why did you go long at 1398? What led you to think that was a good level for going long?

 

2) What would have been your profit objective..min?

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Mitt,

 

I have taylor question for you. I say taylor because your post mentions3-28 being sell day. I am assuming you were looking at going long on a BV (buying day violation by your count).

 

1) Why did you go long at 1398? What led you to think that was a good level for going long?

 

2) What would have been your profit objective..min?

 

To be honest my cycle was a short day 28th so that was a mistake saying it was a sell day.I knew it was a short day the night before when i made my plans.Ideal is high made first and early with price at or above prev day high.So tomorrow i'd like to see a violation of today's low made early for a long on buy day.I decided to close half my 98 long tonight in case that happens and also because of my concerns mentioned in post #140.That way if we continue up i have a position,but if we go down first i can average in having reduced my exposure and banked something for the day.Lower entry would be 1385-87 cash. I knew i wanted 1398 after the close on Tuesday if the market would get there.That part i would rather not explain. You probably understand why. I guess you're asking because it looks significant on the chart today and its not on your radar- the low was 97.2.

Another reason i like to trade the way i do is you get plenty of time to consider your options and the probabilities.

 

2) 1414 test is what i'm looking for now but we may go lower first hence my plan

Edited by mitsubishi

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To be honest my cycle was a short day 28th so that was a mistake saying it was a sell day.I knew it was a short day the night before when i made my plans.Ideal is high made first and early with price at or above prev day high.So tomorrow i'd like to see a violation of today's low made early for a long on buy day.I decided to close half my 98 long tonight in case that happens and also because of my concerns mentioned in post #140.That way if we continue up i have a position,but if we go down first i can average in having reduced my exposure and banked something for the day.Lower entry would be 1385-87 cash. I knew i wanted 1398 after the close on Tuesday if the market would get there.That part i would rather not explain. You probably understand why. I guess you're asking because it looks significant on the chart today and its not on your radar- the low was 97.2.

Another reason i like to trade the way i do is you get plenty of time to consider your options and the probabilities.

 

2) 1414 test is what i'm looking for now but we may go lower first hence my plan

Ok. So you don't on any good rally. mind averaging in since you made a little today on selling part of your position? Actually, if I dial up to a 1 day chart even though today was bearish the trend is still up. Some buying pressure game in just before the close today I see. (I could't watch last bit of day as had to run some errands but from what I see on the chart some buying pressure came in. The market is still weak and I suspect we may see a basically range bound day tomm. If so, you will probally be ok. The intermediate trend on 5 minute chart is close to being up at this moment.

 

My count calls it a Sell day (day2) of the cycle. So, I would sell my long from today (if I had bought which I didn't). If it trades down early below low of 3-28... 1392.00 I will look at going long on a BV. Guess we will just have to see what happens. Here is a screen shot of what my software says for tomm. The entries at the bottom relate to the forecast for today and the actual range made today 3/28. The average range takes in todays range in its calculations to.

5aa710e313312_ESForecast3-29-2012.jpg.077954213339a073d1868e3b58bbb0c8.jpg

Edited by WHY?

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It is just price rotation really.I believe the main players use these kind of techniques and i try to follow their example of how they trade as much as possible.You can believe it's a cardinal sin to do that or you can figure out if it's a viable tool.There will always be big arguments about it.You do have to have confidence in your abilities,i wouldn't recommend someone just decide to do it one day though.There's just too many shades of grey to get a definitive answer on it.I think bluehorsehoe is a more extreme practitioner in these "dark arts" than me,maybe he'll comment.

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Ok. So you don't on any good rally. mind averaging in since you made a little today on selling part of your position? Actually, if I dial up to a 1 day chart even though today was bearish the trend is still up. Some buying pressure game in just before the close today I see. (I could't watch last bit of day as had to run some errands but from what I see on the chart some buying pressure came in. The market is still weak and I suspect we may see a basically range bound day tomm. If so, you will probally be ok. The intermediate trend on 5 minute chart is close to being up at this moment.

 

My count calls it a Sell day (day2) of the cycle. So, I would sell my long from today (if I had bought which I didn't). If it trades down early below low of 3-28... 1392.00 I will look at going long on a BV. Guess we will just have to see what happens. Here is a screen shot of what my software says for tomm. The entries at the bottom relate to the forecast for today and the actual range made today 3/28. The average range takes in todays range in its calculations to.

 

Those prices you quote are cash or ES? The trend is at the moment very much up,so i don't see "conditions have changed" at all at this point therefore rotation is viable but reducing exposure is sensible.if this trade had gone on last week i'd be less concerned on the defensive part of the game.But changing conditions often come in a series of warnings.First the "what didn't happen" on 27th followed by weakness.However as you said,definite buying before close,main trend still intact and a key level i expected to hold did hold.That is"Best information"

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Hi mitsubishi

Heres how I understand rallies and declines.

The rally must exceed the decline to buy

The decline must end early on the buy day

There needs to be some pivot to tell you that the decline has ended

Otherwise you are measuring in hindsight and will miss part of the move

regards

bobc

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Why Taylor? I for one was hoping we would get to the trends in time and someone might shed a light on how Taylor derived his arrow line next to the date in his original book examples.:)

 

Thanks bobc,have you any thoughts on SILVER'S post above?.I can't get my head around that part of the book.:confused: anyone?

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    • Date : 6th December 2019. Happy Non-Farm Friday – 6th December 2019.Happy Non-Farm Friday – The Dollar majors have remained comfortably within their respective ranges from yesterday, ahead of trade talks, NFP and the OPEC+ decision.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • GBPUSD Eyes Further Upside Pressure On More Bull Pressure   GBPUSD with the pair remaining biased to the upside more strength is expected in the days ahead. Support lies at 1.3100 area with a break below that level turning focus to the 1.3050 level. Further down, support comes in the 1.3000 level where a violation will shift focus to the 1.2950 level. Below here will open the door towards the 1.2900 level. On the upside, resistance is located at the 1.3200 with a break above there allowing for morel strength to build up towards the 1.3250 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1.3300 level followed by the 1.3350 level. On the whole, GBPUSD retains its broader upside pressure.    
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