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mitsubishi

Beyond Taylor

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"Why aren’t’ there 4 phases instead of 3?"

 

3 phase because that is what Taylor observed to be happening. Plus you are basically buying long and selling that position and then shorting and covering so if those action fit into an observable three phase cycle no need to add more. His methology gives ample opportunity to go long and short and capturing a goodly portion of the days action while playing the cycle.

 

 

"had the book, but when I looked in the library didn’t see it, so temporarily can’t read for myself – hope I didn’t give it away"

 

There is a digital version available you can download for free on the net (I think I have seen one) or get a nicely done pdf version from Traders press for a fee.

 

"The ‘crowds’ making these auctions / cycle levels are not “fractals” of each other !!!!"

 

That is true. But since the same crowds trade different time frames the same patterns will tend to appear in any time frame. Fractal is just a way of labeling them. Just look at any day chart and compare with a 30 minute chart. You will see the same patterns. Trends...pullbacks..ranges...etc. Same ole behaviour. The point is, if players create the cycles on the daily time frame could they possibly do the same on say a 1 hour time frame???? Just a thought for exploration.

 

"Have you studied JM Hurst?"

Yes.

 

"My impression is that things are still basically the same. However, in modern times at any given time 2-4 more ‘off-floor’ timeframe ‘crowds’ are independently involved in engineering their own ‘campaigns’ than in his day…"

 

True and humans respond to the market in much the same way they did 50 years ago. Hence the same patterns tend to repeat.

 

 

"It’s interesting that much of what has been said to describe traders’ development in TTT has very similar streams in other models. Delta, just mentioned above, is one example where the ideal is often temporarily masked / vaporized – just like the ideal ‘day’- ness of TTT is intermittent, etc."

 

I suppose teaching uses the concept of an "ideal model" to get the point across but since we don't live in an ideal world it doesn't always work according to the ideal model. But to teach the model we build these ideal constructs so folks will know what to look for. Trading is in the gray area..fog..and requires constant assessment. There is no black and white in trading. Any trend can reverse anytime. We make adjustments live based on probabilities. What else can we do?

 

 

"In light of the quotes above and "Taylor advises you to stand aside and await a short sale the next day on a high made first-for a reaction play which you don't hold long because it is a fade against the main trend.Personally i tend to avoid these trades". , plus WHY?’s post 65 , etc. , do ya’ll dynamically adjust your size and holding periods? For example, I personally will not be loading up on / sticking with any “Buy Phases” until ~ late the day 3/28"

 

That was Taylors way of dealing with the fog. You have expressed your way. Others do it differently. But we all have to deal with it. I developed my own way of dealing with it and have tried to show some of my adaptations to the ideal model. Those may clarify and enlighten things for some. For others, it may just confuse them more. That I would regret. Because Taylor is a viable way to trade.

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3 points not much but on a weak rally you have to grab what you can and just get out. The rules call for being flat on a BV. The rally back from the slide down was actually 6.75 point but had to wait for the reversal to show itself to be a reversal hence could only capture 3 points of the move. With Taylor this is how you go long on a weak day. BV's are generally weak days but can sometimes rally back strong and then on those occasions more can be caputured. May not be posting for a few days. Have a great weekend when it gets here.

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.. not really introducing 'real' cycle work into TTT ... was just noting how some of the core issues in several methods are VERY similar...

 

re "more confused " Serious?

What's the best part about TTT for you?

 

Dear zdo

I love the feel of direction.....buy day.Buy below the sell short day low

ETC

Now WHY comes along and says the last three days were all sell days.

Fine ,I can see that. The market is not making or testing a previous low

But what happens to the count?

Has the whole cycle moved out 2 days?

Confusion:confused:

regards

bobc

 

PS My golf partner is a stock broker. On Sunday mornings I say to him"Monday is a buy day". His usual reply is "Dont talk rubbish Bob"

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Bob,

try to seperate your original count from actual daily market behaviour in your mind.I find the rigid frame necessary to keep recording rallies/declines the way Taylor did. But when it comes to the labeling of the day be flexible on what the day turns out to be.I will later post a snapshot of my book and try to explain more

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Dear zdo

I love the feel of direction.....buy day.Buy below the sell short day low

ETC

Now WHY comes along and says the last three days were all sell days.

Fine ,I can see that. The market is not making or testing a previous low

But what happens to the count?

Has the whole cycle moved out 2 days?

Confusion:confused:

regards

bobc

 

PS My golf partner is a stock broker. On Sunday mornings I say to him"Monday is a buy day". His usual reply is "Dont talk rubbish Bob"

 

 

Everybody knows that stockbrokers are experts when it comes to trading:roll eyes:

I can only hope you beat him at golf.. and if you do just tell him Sunday is a golf day.

As for WHY saying they were both sell days they were not ideal sell days.Ideal would have been higher rallies than the buy day low.Sorry to confuse the issue even more:)

To me they look like distribution days since the market then went lower so in fact short sell days followed by friday buying-all that is at odds with my cycle but,like silver,i keep the cycle rigid for the rally/decline counts-it back/forward tests well but i'm open to modifications-always.

Edited by mitsubishi

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So here you have a snapshot of my book.The HL on the left represent my basic count.I mark SSD red,BD yellow and SD green. The HL on the right show the market behaviour effects.

 

14.03

Basic count says SSD.

Previous day was H2L with High(33,83) and Low (33,12) and Close (33,39)

Now we had a H2L the day before,so I would expect a L2H in a continued swing.

L2H is at odds to a SSD which I would want to have H2L.So I consider this a first sign my basic count might be off this day.

Now the opening was up but rally was weak and stopped already after 0,05 and a decline set in.This was an obvious failure to penetrate the prior H.Now again chances were a H2L and the basic count in sync.So I look for support in the decline.Had there been support stronger than the previous low,my basic count be in sync although the day would have been weak.But the previous low was taken out, this day had become a BD.

15.03

Basic count says BD

Again previous day was H2L,so I would expect L2H.BD can be either H2L or L2H so basic count could be in place.

Now since the previous day has had my basic count violated I assume a higher probability for that cycle to continue the following day.Further my BSR reading of the prior day is below 0,4 and this is usually followed by a BSR>1.So high liklihood for a SD.

Opening was down followed by a slow decline with the market showing support well above the previous low. This was confirmation of the day becoming SD.Once the market found support it rallied to its H.

16.03

Basic count says SD

Previous day was L2H,so expected H2L.I asociate H2L with SSD or BD.

Up opening followed by a rally that found resistance below the prior high,failure to penetrate.Support came in well above the previous low,H2L.Then undeceisive side-way.

19.03

Basic count says SSD

Previous H2L had me expect L2H.

Down opening with decline that found support well above the prior L.Confirmation for a SD,then rallied to H.

Watching the low of these 3 SD they show constant increasing support by 0,2,thats engineering;).

 

This is how I handle it.I am certain there are more sophisticated ways than this,but I havent yet had any better ideas.

 

and what will be ahead on 26.03....I expect a H2L,failure to penetrate the high and watch for support near the old low, a weak SD in sync with my basic count.However,all this days were accompanied by rather low volume and give the impression of a lack of interest of major players,so I can also see a possible hard decline ahead.Its also about time for a break in the contious L2H H2L chain.

TTT.bmp

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Just wanted you to know that I have not forgotten about this thread, I have just been busy with the markets but I will be rejoining back the thread soon, but I can see that I will have to go back and read the last 10 pages before I can catch up

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My count has 3/26 in the ES as a BUY day. That gives a shorting opportunity if high is made first during night session of 3/25 or early after open of day session of 3/26. I am anticipating the high to be 1398.00 to 1403.00. If high made first then short and cover same day. If low made first then go long 1381.00 to 1385.00. Read the tape for entry/exit fine tuning. Of course, anticipation is a view to what may happen. Probabilities. If the market doesn't act as anticipated then ones has to make adjustment.

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I am going to test the market. Short at 1404. Not the best of senarios. Market just back and forth. If wrong will exit quickly.

 

Hi WHY,

Should there not be some measured move?

Or are you just testing the market to get some action on a zig zag day?

regards

bobc

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Hi WHY,

Should there not be some measured move?

Or are you just testing the market to get some action on a zig zag day? regards

bobc

If the spike up would have had some better immediate follow through then I would have been more likely to watch for a measured move up for a scalp since bears and bulls are just going back and forth. But since the trend for over 35 bars (i.e. 5 min. bars since the spike) has been in a slight down channel so there is a slight bias to the short side. My reasoning for shorting is I figured 1404 is a good shorting spot and IF it breaks to the downside then I will be set for the break. It has peeked above the channel line last couple of bars so it may head back on up. If so, I will be out with a tight stop. If not I will, hang in there a bit longer. The longer bias of course is up. Edited by WHY?

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Just have to wait around for a better play. It is a listless market. Unless we get some kind of better trending just better to scalp. Since there was no real Taylor play in the day session therefore, at this time of the day the only Taylor play to look for is what he terms a HB or higher bottom on a buy day. So, if within the last hour or so of the day session the market has held a higher bottom (above the low of the 3/25) then one could look to buy long as close to the intraday low as possible. Taylor says HB's usually make money in the next session or two. So, IMO that is the only Taylor play left today. Of course, scalping could go on to the close and especially if we get some kind of trending in the afternoon.

Edited by WHY?

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No opportunity for buying an HB on 3-26. Price didn't trade back down enough to do that. 3-27 should be an SS day by my count after recycling. That means looking to short after high penetrates high of 3-26.

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The double top early in the morning around 1419.50 was the signal for a possible short since price had well penetraded the high of 3-26. Then the slide south started from that point and has continued down to the 1411 area and looks to head even further. However, if there is a strong reversal it would be time to cover. This is a classic SS day for Taylors system. The 3/26 was not a good Taylor trading day at all. When there are days like that the best one can do is try and scalp some spikes for small profits or use some other system.

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It has gotton quiet on this thread. Maybe I am talking to much here? Where is Mitt? Keep putting up your ideas Mitt that you are working on.

 

I have a question or two. Those of you who are practioners of the Taylor methodology or aspiring to be do you use other methodologies or concepts in conjunction with Taylor? Taylor is about the the engineering of the daily cycle which he termed as manipulation by the smart money (it could be but it may not necessarily be) and how to profit from this cycle. However, while one is playing the daily cycle one may also play other strategies on the many cross currents that occur each day if they have the time to do so. So, do any of you find other ideas to be helpful that work well in conjunction with Taylor? Or any other strategies that are helpful in using Taylors methodolgy?

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The double top early in the morning around 1419.50 was the signal for a possible short since price had well penetraded the high of 3-26. Then the slide south started from that point and has continued down to the 1411 area and looks to head even further. However, if there is a strong reversal it would be time to cover. This is a classic SS day for Taylors system. The 3/26 was not a good Taylor trading day at all. When there are days like that the best one can do is try and scalp some spikes for small profits or use some other system.

 

Personally i have found that short term swing trading has solved a lot of these types of issues for me.These days you miss a lot of a move if you are not willing to hold overnight.Then the problem is how do i get something out of what is left?.Next best plan,again for me personally,is that if the trend is clearly up i am only willing to go long and i avoid the short side most of the time.So if we get a low early that favours my overall strategy.As for scalping i have never wanted to trade that style and it is risky if you're target and stop is tight.That is the most likely way i would take losses.And those losses would almost certainly most often be unnecessary if on the long side.

In short Taylor Technique must fit with my trading style not the other way around.His principles/ideas are sound but each trader will trade their own way.Still,the book was a big influence on my trading.

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Personally i have found that short term swing trading has solved a lot of these types of issues for me.These days you miss a lot of a move if you are not willing to hold overnight.Then the problem is how do i get something out of what is left?.Next best plan,again for me personally,is that if the trend is clearly up i am only willing to go long and i avoid the short side most of the time.So if we get a low early that favours my overall strategy.As for scalping I have never wanted to trade that style and it is risky if you're target and stop is tight.That is the most likely way i would take losses.And those losses would almost certainly most often be unnecessary if on the long side.

In short Taylor Technique must fit with my trading style not the other way around.His principles/ideas are sound but each trader will trade their own way.Still,the book was a big influence on my trading.

That is true. One must trade in a manner that they find conducive to their style and trade in such a way they feel most comfortable with. I will trade both ways.Long and short. Swing trading ....overnight and scalping. Probally Hurst influenced myself on the trading the many cross current cycles as opposed to just a swing trade or position trading. I decided why not do both? Take a swing position (via Taylor style) and also scalp when the opportunities arise that have high probabilities. That way, within the larger Taylor cycle I am also trading the many cross currents that he stayed away from and tried to avoid. I find that the concepts that Brooks sets forth his books are viable way of doing this sort of trading, although he is nearly as diffcult as Taylor to understand. In all my trading I incorporate what I call classical tape reading from charts as opposed to order flow and time of sales/DOM tape reading. That is, I read the tape from charts much like Gann..Rollo Tape and others of that day and time did. I have found concepts by Tom Williams as useful in that regards. However, I do sometimes watch the DOM in conjunction with classical tape reading as it is interesting to watch all the faking of orders ...pulling them... flip flopping...and all the other games that go on and can be seen on the DOM. I never ignore volume. Probally get that from Richard Arms. While I trade PA I also look at volume and not just only PA. That concept can get into many arguments on forums, but for me, volume, for the most part, represents institutional buying and selling and they show their hand in the volume. They leave their footprints in the sand. The hard part of course is stepping in their footprint as they make them. Anyway, a handful of authors have influenced my style of trading. At the top I would put Taylor.

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It has gotton quiet on this thread. Maybe I am talking to much here? Where is Mitt? Keep putting up your ideas Mitt that you are working on.

 

I have a question or two. Those of you who are practioners of the Taylor methodology or aspiring to be do you use other methodologies or concepts in conjunction with Taylor? Taylor is about the the engineering of the daily cycle which he termed as manipulation by the smart money (it could be but it may not necessarily be) and how to profit from this cycle. However, while one is playing the daily cycle one may also play other strategies on the many cross currents that occur each day if they have the time to do so. So, do any of you find other ideas to be helpful that work well in conjunction with Taylor? Or any other strategies that are helpful in using Taylors methodolgy?

 

Please continue to post, I have enjoyed reading. I will try to contribute as well.

 

As far as combining other strategies or techniques - I like Taylor's method simply for trying to find the overall direction for the day. Not necessarily for swing trading, but for additional confirmation for scalps. Today for example - SS day plus a double top early gives confluence for a short. From there, you could add to each pull back or fade them, depending on your style. I think it's a great addition to any strategy.

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