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mitsubishi

Beyond Taylor

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The "3 a.m." seems to be the 1 a.m. PDT. Hence Patuca is trading from CDT apparently.

 

Since Patuca is emphasizing the Complete Session, the key theoretic determination is whether the Complete Session is constituted by the RTH + the overnight session OR the overnight session + the RTH...

 

Upon contemplation, the Complete Session being constituted by the overnight session + the RTH makes sense because the RTH concludes for the complete ES period in the early afternoon PDT and the ES resumes for the next trading day in the late afternoon PDT.

Edited by LSTTT

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The "3 a.m." seems to be the 1 a.m. PDT. Hence Patuca is trading from CDT apparently.

 

Since Patuca is emphasizing the Complete Session, the key theoretic determination is whether the Complete Session is constituted by the RTH + the overnight session OR the overnight session + the RTH.

 

 

 

 

The current time is 9:36 a.m. PDT on 9.23.13

all my time is USA Central Standard Time

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I put in an order long 1 contract at 1693. If it doesn't get filled soon i will modify it. Gotta run do something o i can't watch it.

Edited by Patuca

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No Taylor trade taken today. The high of 1707.50 shortly after 3 a.m. was not high enough nor close enough to the high number projected number for me to have looked at shorting at that point. I would have considered a short at 1716 but it never made it there.

 

I will recycle and see if the day cycle has changed any thereby allowing me to employ a new strategy. However, the short for a SS DAY will not take place,

 

Working with the Complete Session with the Complete Session understood as reflecting the overnight session + the RTH, the "short selling" at 1707.50 would actually have made sense, according to Taylor, based on the price action of the previous Complete Session. The RTH today at 9:50 a.m. PDT shows that the price did in fact collapse to 1689 on the ES chart substantiating the viability of that hypothetical trade.

 

But I am not that familiar with monitoring the Taylor Trading cycle with the ES and particularly with the Complete Session concept of the ES. Hence the comment about the "short selling" above is based on theory more than empirical grounding.

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Upon continued contemplation, the utilization of the Complete Session concept for the ES could make more sense than emphasizing the RTH for the ES because ES traders seem to me to be globex traders vs. the equity traders who seem to work primarily with the RTH for the indexes and the stocks--and globex futures traders are not constrained within the RTH as are stock traders. And because the RTH represents simply a portion of the total trading day for the globex traders, the globex traders are likely interested in the development and utilization of the total pattern or data vs. the partial pattern or data for the analysis of a particular trading day.

 

But, it could be, however, that empirical reality or data could substantiate more compellingly which method is actually being utilized by the institutional traders of the ES.

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I am long at 1693.75. SL 10 pts 1683.75..may widen to 1678.75 if need be. Profit target is 1703.75 and may widen that too if prices rebounds good. The idea is to hold through until tomm 9-24 which as been recycled into a SELLl DAY. Most of the time I don't get the rephasing of the day when I enter the intraday day but when I do it gives me another opportunity to use a different tactic. Since the first tactic based upon 9-23 being a SS Day did not pan out because price did something different I tried rephasing and 9-23 turned into a buy day thus giving me the opportunity to go long as close to the intraday low as I can get in ay but it had to be made within the 1st half of the session. Therefore, I could only get in at 1693.75 as time was up. We will see where this takes us by end of the day and during next session. I am done Taylor trading for the day..win or lose I am in 1 contract at 1693.75. Will post a snapshot of the trade later. Have something else to do right now.

 

THIS IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY AND IS DONE IN A DEMO SIMULATOR ACCOUNT. DO NOT COPY THESE TRADES. YOU WILL MOST LIKELY LOSE YOUR MONEY. DO NOT TRADE THESE TACTICS.

Edited by Patuca

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I am long at 1693.75. SL 10 pts 1683.75..may widen to 1678.75 if need be. Profit target is 1703.75 and may widen that too if prices rebounds good. The idea is to hold through until tomm 9-24 which as been recycled into a SELLl DAY. Most of the time I don't get the rephasing of the day when I enter the intraday day but when I do it gives me another opportunity to use a different tactic. Since the first tactic based upon 9-23 being a SS Day did not pan out because price did something different I tried rephasing and 9-23 turned into a buy day thus giving me the opportunity to go long as close to the intraday low as I can get in ay but it had to be made within the 1st half of the session. Therefore, I could only get in at 1693.75 as time was up. We will see where this takes us by end of the day and during next session. I am done Taylor trading for the day..win or lose I am in 1 contract at 1693.75. Will post a snapshot of the trade later...

 

Patuca's method of recycling the count mid-stream is interesting. This differs from theorists who work with a continuity of the count. It represents a theoretically different way of "slicing" portions of the Taylor Trading cycle as an inherent "trend" in itself, the "slicing" concept being what Mitsubishi has emphasized before. It seems to me the efficacy of that could be dependent fundamentally on whether a trader is an intra day trader or a swing trader.

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Patuca's method of recycling the count mid-stream is interesting. This differs from theorists who work with a continuity of the count. It represents a theoretically different way of "slicing" portions of the Taylor Trading cycle as an inherent "trend" in itself, the "slicing" concept being what Mitsubishi has emphasized before. It seems to me the efficacy of that could be dependent fundamentally on whether a trader is an intra day trader or a swing trader.

 

Recycle SILVER now ?

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Here is a question for you

 

since this is the beyond Taylor thread, if you look back on your setups to date, would you find that the Taylor analysis helped or hindered if you were to continue scalping. I'm not talking about trading the way Taylor did. The question is around whether the analysis of daily lows and high ranges, and expectations of probabilities around those ranges was useful at all?

 

snowbird

i never looked at it either way. I will scalp long or short..with trend or against trend. I suppose taylor could help a scalper if say he determined to scalp only in the direction of the projected taylor trend. For instance, today 9-23 was a SS DAY before it got rephased to a BUY day midcurrent. The taylor projected trend would be down. It was. Therefore, one could short scalp until 10:10 a.m. CST thereby increasing the odds for successful scalps.

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Recycle SILVER now ?

 

No recycling ;)

I could imagine running parallel counts from an off-day to counter-check.But that would create a problem of alternatives amd added uncertainty.

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Recycle SILVER now ?

 

 

That's it? :confused: You just type SILVER and within a coupla posts he turns up? Once in a Bobcollet blue moon he comes here,types 2 sentences and disappears for months on end.But for you,6 taps on the keyboard the enigmatic one appears like a genie outta da bottle...

Wow,does it work the other way? I mean can you get rid of the troublemakers when they turn up?...that's what I would call a "supermoderator" watch and learn Wiz...

I'm convinced SILVER is working either in espionage or for the German government.I bet his phone isn't even listed and is permanently engaged..the guy is too damn busy.. always.. it makes me suspicious.Notice how he's more likely to be here when there's no news on Europe/the Euro..it's like they don't need him for a while so he's got some time to spend here...

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Here is my entry. Tomm 9-24 session is SELL DAY. That means that i can exit the long of 9-23 (i.e. 1693.75) on any good rally towards the projected high end number for 9-24. It also means i can go long on a possible BV. Remember a BV is a lower low than the previous days low. In this case a lower low than todays low on 9-23. By 1:00 CST my position taken at 1693.75 was up about 4.5 points. I could have grabbed at least 4 points, and would have if scalping, but i am trying to taylor trade for bigger gains. So i guess we will see what the next session brings me.

 

Now here is a twist to things. Remember, it is a rephased buy day for 9-23. I went long. Price traded up after i took my position then traded down and closed weak on the daily range. Usually, when a BUY DAY trades down early in the session then trades up, then back down, closing weak, that sort of action does not bode well for a long position such as mine. In fact, it is indicative of a BV being made on next session (9-24 session). Per Taylors scheme of things i have a couple of options here. 1) dump my present long position with a small loss or break even. Then wait for a B.V and enter long again. 2) Hang on to my position and if a B.V. does indeed happen just ride it out and wait for a rally. This is the second day down on the ES so odds do favor a rally next session. But it may not be much of a rally since the trend (over a 3 day period) is down.

 

There is a third option but Taylor would not take this option. It is hang on thru the B.V. And when it appears to be over add to my long position (i.e. average down). Sometimes that does work but it is risky and when it doesn't work it hurts.

 

I'll have to decide which option i will take.

 

Of course if things perk up and a rally starts and no BV is made it is obvious what i would do.

 

For all interested i am trading the complete session from 5:00 p.m CST to 4:15 P.M. next calendar day. In other words i am going night session + day session for the COMPLETE Session ...not day session + night session.

 

Patuca

image.jpg.3b860224257c561683de58bca52ce0d8.jpg

Edited by Patuca

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No recycling ;)

I could imagine running parallel counts from an off-day to counter-check.But that would create a problem of alternatives amd added uncertainty.

that is really the whole point of rephasing. The markets by nature are uncertain and a mechanism is useful to help trade when the more than usual unexpected happens. Otherwise, one gets bumped out of being able to trade because of market action. Granted sometimes, the number crunching changes nothing and you still can't trade that day. That is, after all the number crunching the cycle stays the same. At other times it produces another trading opportunity like today.

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I kept the long overnight. So far in the RTH bears and bulls fighting i out with edge for bears. May cut my losses or hang on. Haven't decided yet. No B.V. Has benn made yet after 36 minutes into the open of RTH. Getting close though.

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I kept the long overnight. So far in the RTH bears and bulls fighting i out with edge for bears. May cut my losses or hang on. Haven't decided yet. No B.V. Has benn made yet after 36 minutes into the open of RTH. Getting close though.

 

Hi Patuca,

 

Are you respecting all the rulese here?

 

TW

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I kept the long overnight. So far in the RTH bears and bulls fighting i out with edge for bears. May cut my losses or hang on. Haven't decided yet. No B.V. Has benn made yet after 36 minutes into the open of RTH. Getting close though.

 

A BV did happen at 7:15 a.m. PDT (Pacific Daylight Time until PDT reconstitutes itself as PST) this morning with the ES and a 10+ handle rally happened after that.

 

But, what is interesting are the negative catalysts that could be influencing and continue to influence the Taylor Trading cycle this week: the debt ceiling and a possible partial shutdown of the U.S. government next week and the tapering that could happen in October.

 

 

 

 

The current time is 10:25 a.m. PDT on Tuesday, 9.24.13

Edited by LSTTT

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You said a BV happened at 7:15 pm last night 9-23 correct? I dont show one happening until 9:15 a.m. CDT this morning. And it was just a 2 point B.V. I think we are talking about the same B.V. but i don't get your time...you said p.m. Did you mean a.m.?

 

Why not post in CDT chicago time.

 

Thanks

 

Patuca

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Just did a count of the ES daily chart. I concur with Patuca. Today on the ES is a SELL DAY. Furthermore, it seems to me that the daily bar of the ES is constructed via the overnight session + the RTH. Thus, the Complete Session constructed via the overnight session + the RTH and today being a SELL DAY seem to me meaningful to work with.

 

 

 

 

The current time is 11:30 a.m. PDT or 1:30 p.m. CDT on on Tuesday, 9.24.13.

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Hi Patuca,

 

Are you respecting all the rulese here?

 

TW

yes, 9-23 WAS A SS DAY ON 9-23 and it rephased into a BUY DAY before noon on 9-24. This allows one to then take a long position, hold till next session and sell it at any time in the next night session or even in the next day session of 9-24. See the next complete session (i.e. Night and day) starts at 5:00 p.m. CDT on 9-23 and ends on 9-24 at 4:15 p.m.

 

Remember longs taken on a BUY DAY are generally sold on the next day i.e. The SELL DAY. In some cases they can be sold the same buy day or even held for the SS DAY.

 

in general the idea is to sell THE LONGS bot on the BUY day on the SELL day which is the next day in the cycle and to sell them on a penetration of the previous days high (i.e.the buy days high). In this case the rephased buy day high was 1707.50 therefore i would be looking to sell my long position somewhere near that price preferably, on a penetration of that high but in taylors scheme of things you do get failures to penetrate and there are tactics to deal with that. It has traded up to 1701 today but at this moment is headed back down. If i was scalping i would have long grabbed my profit.

 

This is really hard for me as a scalper to taylor trade the indices. I just see too many times to grab profits and don't ...then end up giving them back...on paper..and waiting for another rise. I do not like holding through all the pull backs and giving up profit that was in my hand. I had rather grab the profits..wait for the PB and enter again.

 

"A dollar in hand worth two inthe bush" is my philosophy.

 

Can anyone show me the benefits of holding a position thru multiple pull backs to get a bigger profit? Other than saving commission costs. I just see too many times the PB becomes a reversal and what was a profit becomes a real loss when the SL is hit.

 

I am trying to trade like taylor but i hate holding thru PB's. My once profitable trade could become a loss.

 

Patuca

Edited by Patuca

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...Can anyone show me the benefits of holding a position thru multiple pull backs to get a bigger profit? Other than saving commission costs. I just see too many times the PB becomes a reversal and what was a profit becomes a real loss when the SL is hit.

 

I am trying to trade like taylor but i hate holding thru PB's. My once profitable trade could become a loss...

 

It seems to me that a trader could, for example, enter via a Taylor signal with twice the size of the position and exit 50% of the position (or whatever have you) as an intra day trade at any time for profit and continue with the other 50% of the position for a Taylor swing trade.

 

This is predicated on the Taylor entry point to be ideal for both the intra day trade and the swing trade. The exits, however, would differ because of the "multiple" PB would be configured to work with the Taylor swing trade position vs. the intra day position.

 

Moreover, the Taylor swing trade position IS BASED ON A THEORY OF TAYLOR 3 DAY CYCLE. The theory is that "statistically," "logically," etc. the purchase on the BUY DAY should result in profits by the next day or the day after AS AN AVERAGE--even in a non up trend, according to Taylor. But any particular trade could represent the "exception."

 

Furthermore, a theorist could distinguish between three major contexts mentioned before: an up trend, a non up trend and a range context. It seems that entering with the rules of the Taylor Trading cycle in a non up trend could be the most difficult--FOR LONG POSITIONS. But Taylor worked with both LONG and SHORT positions utilizing the Taylor Trading cycle.

 

Finally, if the "exception" happens, a trader could work with exiting the Taylor swing position in a certain way for risk management--Taylor mentioned the method that Taylor worked with for exiting if the "exception" were to happen.

Edited by LSTTT

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