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mitsubishi

Beyond Taylor

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Great buy day today. Market taken down (shorting opportunity first) reversed market taken up (long opportunity) 4 good scalps. Two on downside. Two on the upsides. Others there too but more risky.

5aa710e7f0726_PAandTaylortradesApril-5-2012.jpg.f06b39ff06604c3745984d10fd979b05.jpg

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Hi mitsubishi

You are also a man of action

I am still fiddling around

I also see a nice trading system in your chart. But its always easier in a bull market.

I like the way you measure the swings.

regards

bobc

 

If you do this kind of record keeping you will tend to see different types of strategies that you may not think of when looking at indicators,bar patterns etc.You would just reverse all the implications in that chart in a bear market.

In fact,since we have a long weekend coming,i will make a similar chart but bearish this time.

Now,who wants to see a trend chart with no price on it at all? Anyone done something similar to that? It may sound too far beyond Taylor,but may be closer than you would think.There's at least one trader on TL who says he could care less about price and only

focuses on time.Maybe he will comment on this thread....(?)

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:cool:

If you do this kind of record keeping you will tend to see different types of strategies that you may not think of when looking at indicators,bar patterns etc.You would just reverse all the implications in that chart in a bear market.

In fact,since we have a long weekend coming,i will make a similar chart but bearish this time.

Now,who wants to see a trend chart with no price on it at all? Anyone done something similar to that? It may sound too far beyond Taylor,but may be closer than you would think.There's at least one trader on TL who says he could care less about price and only

focuses on time.Maybe he will comment on this thread....(?)

Might be something to that. Perhaps the only constant we have is time? Perhaps Mr Gann was right after all?:cool:

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You are welcome. I have never tried adapting Taylor that way but my guess would be that it may work. I have just never been interested in investing in long term trends. I have adapted his method on intraday charts and seen some promising stuff down to 15 minute charts. Perhaps there is an element of human nature (as markets do reflect that) and perhaps Taylor discovered a manifestation of that in a 3 day cycle senario. Humphrey Neil in Tape reading and Market tactics said "the ticker tape is simply a record of human nature passing in review". I suppose if it does record human nature on a minute by minute basis it would also on a 5 min chart...15 minute..daily..or weekly..even monthly. The old timers of course read the tape from a ticker machine which served pretty much the same as a time and sales screen of this age but on a much slower basis. However, what I find interesting when these old timers discuss tape reading they do it from a chart and use a chart to show examples. Therefore, that makes me think; can the tape be read from a chart? That is, can the chart be considered a useful, grafical, representation of the ticker tape/time and sales and in itself be called "the tape". I decided it was so. Therefore, I call this classical tape reading. It really isn't the way they "read" the tape in those days but it is the way they "explained" the tape. See, if the ticker machine and time and sales can be seen as small increments of the tape why couldn't the tape be seen in a larger way such as a chart. After all, the chart is a representation of the ticker/time and sales. Cliff Drokes thought along these same lines and mentioned it in his book tape reading for the 21st century. A quick look at the old timers. Neil, Gann, Wycoff..their explanations of the tape were done in chart form. Actually, Tom Williams work does the same thing. It is reading the tape in the form of charts looking for institutional activity. So anyway, when I refer to reading the tape in some of my posts I mean all the way from the time and sales/DOM/Orderflow to a hybrid version of reading the tape from charts. Of course, the DOM/Orderflow/time and sale is basically meaningless when you are talking about a trend of several weeks. Gann (in The Truth of the Stock Market Tape) read and explained the tape for these sort of longer trends from a chart. The time and sale/DOM/orderflow have gotton so fast now days (unlike the ticker tape of days gone by) that with algos and all the HFT out there the tape moves faster and faster (even at a nano second level) that the human eye cannot pick it up. Some daytraders/scalpers have taken to using computers to help them read them tape and stitch back up big orders that have been broken up to hide footprints..etc. However, in the final analysis the product of the tape volume/price shows up on a chart. So, I have taken to reading the tape from the charts. I say all this about tape reading because it is my belief that to be able to use Taylor properly it will require not just a knowledge of the cycles ..etc... but also a knowledge of how to read the tape from a chart. That is how one is going to conclude if a decline has stopped at a probable Taylor Low or a Taylor High has been reached. Or failed to reach it. It helps one to anticipate failures to penetrate previous days cycles and stopping point for declines and rallies. Just calculating the average of Taylors decline/rallies...coupled with the three day cycle theory etc isn't enough to get the job done. I know this to be so. Taylor himself mentioned several times about reading the tape so I know that he did so in conjunction with all his analysis and averages and figures. He basically clocked the market like one would clock a slot machine but his final pull from the trigger came from tape reading. That is why for years I have talked about in my Taylor posts when I say my entry here or exit there depends on the tape. Most folks never catch it or maybe they don't understand the tape? That is why I listed those books in my pompous post :) as my intent was to give some resources to folks where they could learn about tape reading from what I call a classical view i.e. a chart. IT IS THE FINE TUNING OF THE TAYLOR METHODOLOGY. Trust me Taylor will only work well if one can read the tape for entries. On less than ideal day cycles one will miss the trend if they can't read the tape. Take my last Taylor chart (I refer you to post #216 and the post #212 anticipating the price action of #216). It was an ideal Taylor taylor BUY day. The market is taken down overnight for a shorting opportunity and I said that was what I was looking and I expected it in the night session (re-read my post #212..this was made before the fact). Then, when the day session started we had the reversal and a chance to go long and make a killing. But notice something here. The low didn't make it to the taylor projected low of 3-30 1395.75 or 1394.56.... my softaware forecast. The reversal came. If I couldn't read the tape and see that the reversal was here then I would have waited around for the market to make the Taylor projected low and I would have missed the move up. So, it was an ideal Taylor BUY day in terms of the Taylor Strategy (look to short and go long) and the direction (take the market down then back up early in the session) BUT it WAS NOT an ideal Taylor BUY day in terms of the projected low. Nor in terms of the projected high. My software projected a high of 1406.19 when the actually high after that great rally was 1419.75. Nothing but tape reading would have kept me in the Taylor moves for that day in spite of the facts that the direction being right and the short/long opportunities being righ (as not all Taylor buy days give a short/long opportunity.)

 

This is a long way around the block to answer your question but me thinks it may be relevant to your question. So........

 

It is possible there could be a 3 week cycle? Or a 3 month cycle? Me thinks it is possible but then again tape reading, in the sense that I am discussed above,..well...it will be necessary as the time/sale/dom/ will be totally irrelevant to a 3 week cycle. You will have to use the sort of tape reading I am talking about. As much as some people don't like Tom Williams and VSA he did have alot of good stuff that is useful for tape reading. Wiliams is good too in the sense that this sort of tape reading I am talking about requires an analysis of the spread. The size of the spread says alot about the tape. The volume of trading on that spread size says alot too. We have volume and we have price and price spread and open and closing. I have never understood why pure price action people want to leave out that piece of important data, namely, volume. It tells how the price was made. And indicates the value of the price in terms of money and money is what moves the market. You and I don't move the markets. Institutions move the markets. And their foot print is the volume. Anyway I better shut up about volume. I will say two more things about volume. To read the tape like I talk about in this post one will have to take volume into consideration. The second thing is IF anything is a leading indicator it is VOLUME. I ahve nothing like it that helps me better detect probable future price action. Of course it can be wrong sometimes simply because institutions can be wrong sometimes. And institutions are battling out with each other and they all approach the market in their own way. One institution may start aggressive buying and that pushes the price up when a stronger one beings shorting and wins out. Either way the story is told in the tape (chart). And so much faking out goes on. Make the market look weak to drive down a few ticks so they can really buy at a discount price because their real plan is to take the market up.

 

As much as some don't like Gann his book I mentioned it as being useful and especially Drokes book. Also,Silver mentioned Neils book which I had somehow left out but yes, it is important too.

 

Why don't you make some books up on on these longer time frames and let us know what you find out?

 

For those that are interested in extreme scalping based on tape reading the order flow and using a computer to do so can take a look at jigsaw trading. Google it. I have absolutely nothing to do with jigsaw so please mitt don't think that. I mention them as a resource only. For trading order flow from DOM look at NO BS Trading by John Grady. However, this sort of tape reading is very short-term and for scalping and isn't relevant to Taylor trading. It can be somewhat useful for scalping via Brooks methods if one likes to scalp and take longer Taylor positions also like I like to do.

 

Hope all this makes sense. Probally won't be back for a bit.

 

Why?

Why you are quite the windbag aren't you Why?

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i was checking out "the taylor trading technique" book and the reviews people wrote about it on amazon are pretty odd. im still learning to trade and ive just been reading books to learn about how to get going and i was wondering if i should buy the book right now with minimal trading knowledge.

 

link to the reviews:

Amazon.com: The Taylor Trading Technique (9780934380249): George Douglass Taylor: Books

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I refer back to my charts on post #230 of this thread. So here we are with the cash S&P several days later. We are either in stage 3 or consolidation. How will we know which one? This is about catching the big moves.

5aa710f3b7d93_CashSP2.jpg.b393996147bcee21d1e4acb14261d172.jpg

Edited by WHY?

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Mit

In your explanation of the chart in post 5 you said that Taylor says it doesn't matter if two people have different cycles. Could you direct me to the place in his book where he says that? Thanks

 

Hi Patuca

Reading TTT for the 5th time I came across the answer to your question

Page 74 Chapter 15 Pertinent Points Second paragraph

 

"After making up several books on grains and stocks, he will find that some of them will differ, in that one may be at a Buying Objective while another a Sale or Short Sale but this is the continunity so follow them that way"

etc , etc

 

regards

bobc

 

PS mitsubishi is on holiday

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Hi Patuca

Reading TTT for the 5th time I came across the answer to your question

Page 74 Chapter 15 Pertinent Points Second paragraph

 

"After making up several books on grains and stocks, he will find that some of them will differ, in that one may be at a Buying Objective while another a Sale or Short Sale but this is the continunity so follow them that way"

etc , etc

 

regards

bobc

 

PS mitsubishi is on holiday

thanks. however, it seems to me that the reference is referring to books in different trading instruments as opposed to say several books on the same instrument being different....i think mitsubishi got upset or bought a new car to polish?

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Bob,

 

Since you are interested in the BIG trend movements...etc you might find some useful ideas here. Someone (I do not know how they got my email) sent a link to this article to me. I looked at it and thought about you! Also, while on the site I found the second link that explains the rationale of the method.

 

Is Apple (AAPL) a Bubble Ready to Pop? - BigTrends

 

History of Trading Bubbles & Oil/Natural Gas Ratio - BigTrends

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Bob,

 

Since you are interested in the BIG trend movements...etc you might find some useful ideas here. Someone (I do not know how they got my email) sent a link to this article to me. I looked at it and thought about you! Also, while on the site I found the second link that explains the rationale of the method.

 

Is Apple (AAPL) a Bubble Ready to Pop? - BigTrends

 

History of Trading Bubbles & Oil/Natural Gas Ratio - BigTrends

 

Thanks Why,

And while you are back in town , please comment on this TTT

"Many times the opening price will be your Buying or Selling Objective on a penetration or failure to penetrate" (Chapter 15 ,page 73 paragraph 9)

What is penetration on a Buying Day?

Kind regards

bobc

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i was checking out "the taylor trading technique" book and the reviews people wrote about it on amazon are pretty odd. im still learning to trade and ive just been reading books to learn about how to get going and i was wondering if i should buy the book right now with minimal trading knowledge.

 

link to the reviews:

Amazon.com: The Taylor Trading Technique (9780934380249): George Douglass Taylor: Books

 

Dear Baker

Nobody has replied to your question.

Its the most badly written trading book of all time.Thats why it remains Non Main Stream.

If you have the patience and about 6 months to try and understand it, you will have an edge.Because everybody else is doing the opposite.

BUY the book

Kind regards

bobc

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Thanks Why,

And while you are back in town , please comment on this TTT

"Many times the opening price will be your Buying or Selling Objective on a penetration or failure to penetrate" (Chapter 15 ,page 73 paragraph 9)

What is penetration on a Buying Day?

Kind regards

bobc

He is talking about the opening price as related to the buying or selling objectives. For instance:

 

We know that the BEST and ideal buying day objective is to buy on a low made early in the session and one that penetrates the low of the previous day i.e. the SS day (previous session). That is, it makes a lower low and does so early in the session p 74 par 4; p9 par 6; p10 par5; p11 par4; p12 par 5; p29 par 6,7,8. So what he is saying here is that many times the opening price on this buying day will already be a penetration of the previous days (SS day) low. You can get a hint or indication if this is likely to happen by watching the "close" of the previous session (SSday). Was the close near the low of the day? Are prices in a downtrend or range? If downtrend and close near low then chances are the open on the next day will have already penetrated the low of the SS day or will at least make the low FIRST in the session.

 

Now on days where there are HB's on a BUY day (higher bottoms on buying days p30 pr3&9) then the low on a buying day will NOT penetrate the low of the previous day (SS day) and the low that is made will generally be made late in the session, but not always. The hint for probable HB being made is when prices are ALREADY in a rally (uptrend) on a SS day and the close is high and strong on the SS day. That indicates the rally will continue up early in the session on the next day (Buy day) and when the decline starts it may not go down below (penetrate) the low of the previous day (SS day). HB's are usually profitable.

 

With Taylor you can go long on a buy day low made first. Also, a HB on a buy day (generally made later in the session). And on a BV on a SELL day (the low of the sell day trades under the low of the previous day i.e. the buy day and does so early in the session like within first two hours of the open).

 

On buy day you can short a high made first ideally on a penetration (to the upside) of the previous day (ss day). You may get a failure to penetrate in this case but if the objective is made first (in this case high made first on a buy day) then it is ok to short it. What is the hint that the shorting objective on a buy day might happen first? Simply a strong close on the previous SS day. That is an indication to be looking at a short position right off the bat after the open on the buy day.

 

In summary, when Taylor says "Many times the opening price will be your Buying or Selling Objective on a penetration or failure to penetrate" what he is simply saying is that the objective is made on the open and one has to be johnny on the spot so to speak and take immediate action to take a postion or get out of a position without undue waiting around. For instance, prices are in a trading range. SS day closes low. The open on the next session is BELOW the low of the SSday. This then would be a penetration (to the downside) on the open. You would immediately look to go long. You might wait a few minutes but don't tarry. If no further breakout of the trading range to the downside is forthcoming then one would certainly look at taking a long position quickly because prices will probally soon start trading back up. The opening price MET the buying objective in this case.

 

Basically, the statement you referenced applies to ANY objective (buying or selling) in the Taylor scheme of things. Another example: Taylor recommends going long on a buy day with a low made first and selling that long on the next day (sell day) once the high of the previous day (buy day) has been penetrated. So, suppose one buys the low made first on a buy day. All day long prices trade up..looks like it will close strong...so you hold your postion overnight. Next day price opens ABOVE the high of the previous day (buy day). You immediatley sell your long position because the objective (a penetration of the buy day high) was made ON THE OPENING PRINT. Of course, the final trigger isn't just that the objective has been met but the "tape" indicates entry and exits once the objective has been reached. For instance, in this last example say it opened higher than the previous day session (buy day) and I was long from the buy day I "may not" immediately sell (even though the objective has been reached) IF the tape indicates that prices will trade up more.

 

This is why I have said that taylor has to be used with tape reading skills to be to be able to wring the best out of it.

 

Maybe I have confused more?

 

WHY?

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i was checking out "the taylor trading technique" book and the reviews people wrote about it on amazon are pretty odd. im still learning to trade and ive just been reading books to learn about how to get going and i was wondering if i should buy the book right now with minimal trading knowledge.

 

link to the reviews:

Amazon.com: The Taylor Trading Technique (9780934380249): George Douglass Taylor: Books

Much depends on what you forsee yourself doing. If you are looking at day trading from the sense of capturing the larger part of the daily trend then Taylor can help you. If you are looking to scalp then I would look at Al Brooks 3 books (also hard to understand..but not as hard a Taylor). If you want to do a combination of both strategies then buy all 4 books. I will say this. I have many trading books. Most I could dispense with and not really miss but I would really want to hang onto Taylor and Brooks. Can a newbie learn Taylor and Brooks? Sure, if you are willing to invest the time in doing so. Why read other books for 8 years..buy systems..listen to gurus..spend thousands and end up going back to Taylor and say Brooks. All 4 book can be bought for a total of under 150.00. Just tackle the good stuff right away. Save some educational money. For me both Taylor and Brooks are workable systems in the real world and not some theoretical stuff that a non trader has written. But they ARE difficult to understand and will require repeated readings into the wee hours of morning when everyone else is snoring and it is quiet so you can think. They are not books to be read and studied when there is noise around. You may even think the authors are a bit off their rocker. Just wade thru it and you will soon (within first year) begin to understand how they word themselves and express their ideas and then you will be able to flow with them because you have synchronised your thought processes with theirs. Not an easy thing to do but it can be done. Count on studying Taylor intensively for two years before you really capture his thinking. Brooks you can get sooner but since his thinking is compiled into three books it will also take you two years. In summary spend the next two years studying Taylor and Brooks. Then trade on a sim until you know the setups like the back of your hand then put some real money on the line and let the ole emotions kick in and see how well you do. I generally am against sim and paper trading but in the case of these two methodologies I would say learn them well..sim them..finally money them..The above is simply my opinion to a new trader, not advice. Do whatever floats your boat is really the only advice I can give.

 

As you are studying taylor and brooks you will need to do some reading on "tape reading". I think I made a list up of some books in a previous post on this thread. Taylor, Brooks, and tape reading is all one needs in my opinion. I am sure others have many more opinions. Most people never make it thru Taylor and I would dare say Brooks.

 

Hope this helps. Two years down the road you may thank me or in 3 months you may hate me??? I am receptive to either senario.

 

 

have a great day!

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Maybe I have confused more?

 

WHY?

 

Dear WHY

No you have not confused at all . You have enlightened.

You missed your vocation. You should have been a teacher.

As an aside , that little chart you sent showing the four stages of a market..

I overlaid it on the top 16 shares in my SA market. Every one of these shares is at stage 3, Topping Distribution. Makes me think my market is heading for a big fall. :offtopic:

Kind regards

bobc

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Dear WHY

No you have not confused at all . You have enlightened.

You missed your vocation. You should have been a teacher.

As an aside , that little chart you sent showing the four stages of a market..

I overlaid it on the top 16 shares in my SA market. Every one of these shares is at stage 3, Topping Distribution. Makes me think my market is heading for a big fall. :offtopic:

Kind regards

bobc

Thanks for the kind comments. From time to time I do teach. Only time will tell if it is distribution that will be followed by a markdown or consolidation that will be followed by a continuation of the uptrend. You have to wait for a breakout either to the downside or upside to tell. I don't know how much QE3 would affect SA market but if they do QE3 it will probally drive the markets higher on this side of the world.

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Dear WHY,

Please have a look at the attached chart

26/4 Sell Short day in my book

Closed with a bit of a rally (Reversal bar, shaved top, )

27/4 Public holiday

28/4 29/4 Weekend

30/4 Buy day in my book

Price opens gap up above the SSD high . Great short. Out at the doji......losing direction.

Now the next bar penetrates the low 26/4 ... the SSD.

Can I still buy in the middle of the day.?

Lets ignore the rest of the chart showing a trendline break and a possible test of the low

Kind regards

bobc

chart.thumb.png.02c197ffc0c064a85ca029e5b7d76d2c.png

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Dear WHY,

Please have a look at the attached chart

26/4 Sell Short day in my book

Closed with a bit of a rally (Reversal bar, shaved top, )

27/4 Public holiday

28/4 29/4 Weekend

30/4 Buy day in my book

Price opens gap up above the SSD high . Great short. Out at the doji......losing direction.

Now the next bar penetrates the low 26/4 ... the SSD.

Can I still buy in the middle of the day.?

Lets ignore the rest of the chart showing a trendline break and a possible test of the low

Kind regards

bobc

Sure, you can buy in the middle of the session. Many times you will find that the day offers two opportunities to catch major trends of the day. You have to remember that Taylor refers to ideal days and not so ideal days. That is basically what penetrate and failure to penetrate coupled with the time of the day is about. Your buy day WAS an ideal day as shorting is allowed on a buy day especially on a penetration early in the session of the previous days high. That is what happened in this case and it made a great short. This first move was over by the middle of the session. Then the reversal came. I would have actually been looking for and anticipating the reversal The general rule I follow is; if within the first half of the session my objective is made then I can take a position. I like to see it happen within first 2 to 2.5 hours of the open but will sometimes stretch it out some. Also, remember it doesn't have to actually penetrate. There are many failures to penetrate. We are are talking about ideal days vs less than ideal days. You can stil take a position on less than ideal days. What Taylor says is that when the anticipated price action happens early in the session then profits can be quickly made. To the contrary then you will have to wait longer to take a position.

 

In summary, there was absolutely no reason to not take a long position in this case after the short. It isn't too terrible late in the session (halfway through).To the left all one sees is support..support..support. The support in this case is much more important than the actual penetration of the low of the previous day made on the candle after the doji. Yes, I would jump on this reversal. But also keep in mind it is sort of a pullback so it may not go too far. I would take the reversal put some fib lines on the chart and watch what happens to price near the fib lines. Visually watch what price does on the pullback near the resistance and finally watch for a break of the trend line in the pullback. Also, this is where tape reading has to come into play. But sure, it is a playable Taylor long.

 

Now take a little different senario. Say opened as in the chart. You take the short. You cover near the doji. But by the time it makes it to the doji it is 30 minutes before the close. I would not take the reversal in such a case. Why? The probabilities favor a BV (buying day low violation) next trading session. That is, on the next day (sell day) a low will be made that is lower than the low of the previous day (which would be the buy day). The BV on the sell day is where I would look to get long in this senario.

 

Now another senario: Opens as indicated by chart. Ideal shorting for a buy day. I short however the decline is steady buy grinding down all day. It is within 1 hour of the close. Now 30 minutes. No more decline. Price is holding a higher bottom (i.e. above the low of the previous day). I would cover the short and go long and hold overnight. This is called buying a higher bottom on a buy day. It is usually profitable. The only way you know if you have an HB is wait until the trading session is almost over. So HB's are a case where you actually go long LATE in the session on a buying day. To take an HB position you want a decent HB not just one or two ticks higher.

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Taylor, Brooks, and tape reading…

Hope this helps. Two years down the road you may thank me or in 3 months you may hate me

:haha: you are a hard, cruel man ;)

I don’t have to wait 3 months or two years – I hate you now! ;)

 

re “…they ARE difficult to understand”

:haha: were there any other understatements in your post?

 

re “capture his thinking”

That is the perfect phrase ( actually perfect for both of them… each of them is SO—o-oo NOT explicit about certain stuff)

 

and “…synchronised your thought processes with theirs”

Think like George ok, maybe :)

Think like Brooks - now That’s scary :rofl:

 

Seriously now – For a committed, serious, NOT lazy trader this ‘curriculum’ is superb!

...like you say “both Taylor and Brooks are workable systems in the real world and not some theoretical stuff that a non trader has written”

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:haha: you are a hard, cruel man ;)

I don’t have to wait 3 months or two years – I hate you now! ;)

I understand..completely.

 

re “…they ARE difficult to understand”

:haha: were there any other understatements in your post?

LOL

 

re “capture his thinking”

That is the perfect phrase ( actually perfect for both of them… each of them is SO—o-oo NOT explicit about certain stuff)

the problem is their "mode" of expression. Neither organize the concepts in coherent, logical steps. They both know/knew their sytem so well it seems to me they just expressed the concepts as they came to their minds. Have you looked at Brooks 3 new books? They are easier to understand but still I would have done some things more logical in the presentation. One day when I get around to it I may redo Taylor using a better taxonomy.

 

and “…synchronised your thought processes with theirs”

Think like George ok, maybe :)

Think like Brooks - now That’s scary :rofl:

It does indeed come. It took me about two years. I was studying Taylor before year 2000.

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Dear WHY,

New senario.

Monday 30/4 we had a short sell on a Buy Day.

In the middle of the day we had chance to Buy .The close was near the low.(inside bar)

Tuesday was another darn Public Holiday .No wonder I am behind with feed for the race horses.

Today 2/5 the share opened GAP up and sold off in 30min on high volume.(exhaustion bar)

Today is a Sell day in my book.

If I had bought the share and held overnight, I would sell at the open for a quick profit.

Now the price is back at support and in has penetrated the low.

Can I buy on the Sell day?

kind regards

bobc

 

PS This share must move 20 cents for me to cover brokerage.

5aa710f59e777_chart2.thumb.png.01c0e226a768d896044912431d5d102e.png

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    • Near Term Outlook Unchanged as AUDUSD Trades Weaker   AUDUSD Price Analysis – August 22 The Aussie is holding weaker so far with the yuan softer on the day on a softer note for the equities and treasury yields. However, yuan has a relative effect on USD as the PBOC fixed the yuan weaker again today, reaffirming the notion that they will allow the currency to weaken but not too quickly.   Key Levels Resistance Levels: 0.7205, 0.7085, 0.6827 Support Levels: 0.6748, 0.6676, 0.6620   AUDUSD Long term Trend: Bearish But as seen in the daily picture above, the near-term picture in AUDUSD remains unchanged despite the pair slipping to session lows on the level at 0.6748 currently. Both buyers and sellers have more work to do to gain more momentum to push prices out of the downward range since last week.   While the forex pair is experiencing a stall, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.   AUDUSD Short term Trend: Ranging However, AUDUSD needs to break the monthly support zone on the level at 0.6676, which is currently providing support for the momentum on the pair at the level at 0.6748.   The currency exchange rate will most likely continue to trade downward and flat for today waiting for the required volatility to change the direction.    
    • Staying Within Previous Boundary EURJPY Continues to Trade Within a Range   %2> EURJPY Price Analysis – August 23 In today’s trading session, the common European currency traded sideways against the Japanese Yen. The currency pair was trading below the moving average 5 and 13 since yesterday’s trading session. We may see bearish traders pressurize the currency pair towards the level at 117.50 before the end of today’s trading session.     Key Levels  Resistance Levels: 123.01, 119.88, 118.33  Support Levels: 117.65, 117.50, 117.00    EURJPY Long term Trend: Bearish In the daily picture, the EURJPY pair may most likely maintain the price range during the next trading session. Alternatively, a breakout may occur downwards.  While the exchange rate has been trading within the range of the level at 118.33 and 117.50 since mid-August. The trend is bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the medium and long-term.     EURJPY Short term Trend: Bearish Today’s trading range has been going negative and more, and that’s below the last trading month’s daily average range. On the flip side, we may see a change in trend with renewed upward strength.   Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high towards the level at 118.33 where further buy stops might get activated. Although with the level at 119.88 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish.  
    • Date : 23rd August 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd August 2019.FX News Today A confluence of factors whipped the markets around Thursday heading into the Jackson Hole Symposium and Chair Powell’s comments Friday at 10 ET. Hawkish remarks from George (she dissented against the July easing) and Harker (who votes in 2020) weighed on Treasuries and erased early gains from Wall Street. Minutes from both Fed and ECB meetings were not quite the all out dovish signal that some had been hoping for and comments from Fed members yesterday also showed a degree of caution with regard to further easing measures. The curve in the US steepened again after inverting briefly overnight, the curve flattened and inverted further in Japan. Stock markets across Asia moved mostly higher although gains remained contained by caution. New Zealand’s central bank governor said he could afford to wait before declining on additional easing measures. Onshore Yuan set at its weakest for 11 years. Japanese core consumer inflation at a 2-year low in July. Meanwhile lingering geopolitical trade tensions and political jitters in Hong Kong, Italy and the UK add to an uncertain backdrop. US futures are also cautiously moving higher. The WTI future is trading at USD 55.37 per barrel. Charts of the DayTechnician’s Corner EURUSD returned to 3-week lows of 1.1064 today, after rallying to session highs of 1.1099 following the sub-50 US manufacturing PMI. Negative European yields appear to be taking their toll on the currency, keeping the Dollar in demand in place for relatively high yielding US Treasuries. This has likely been a major factor keeping EURUSD under pressure, especially ahead of likely ECB easing in September, and perceptions that the Fed will not be as aggressive in easing as previously thought. Key EURUSD level is the 27-month low of 1.1027 seen on August 1. USDJPY rallied to 106.64 highs. The risk-sensitive pairing can be expected to consolidate into today’s much anticipated speech from Fed chair Powell, from Jackson Hole. GBPUSD: Sterling had its best single day rally since March 13 against the Dollar. Cable’s high was 1.2273, which is the loftiest level seen since late July. The gains were sparked by comments made by German’s Merkel, who indicated that a solution to the Irish border backstop conundrum is doable by the October-31 Brexit deadline. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson followed this up by saying at his joint press conference with France’s Macron that he was encouraged by his talks in Berlin yesterday, and that a deal, he thinks, can be done ahead of October 31. Macron, said, however, that while he has always respected the UK’s decision to leave the EU, the European project has to be protected, to which the Irish backstop remains an important part of ensuring this. Merkel’s remarks were little more than rhetorical platitudes, though enough to trigger a short squeeze in a heavy shorted currency. Main Macro Events Today   Jackson Hole Symposium – Day 2 Retail Sales ex Autos (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Retail sales are expected to have decreased in Canada, with consensus forecasts suggesting a -0.5% m/m decline should be registered in June and an unchanged ex-autos component at 0.3%. In May, Retail sales were disappointing, falling 0.1% for total sales and declining 0.3% for the ex-autos component. The decline in sales was driven by a 2.0% tumble in food and beverage stores. The report casts some doubt on the resiliency of the consumer sector to the ongoing parade of worrisome geopolitical and trade developments. Support and Resistance levelsAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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