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mitsubishi

Beyond Taylor

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absolutley. smaller positions..cutting losses...not trading..what about you? all in for the big gamble? all in long..all in short?

 

No,if there's one thing i've learned that will stick it's don't over leverage yourself,then you got a chance to trade your way out of trouble.And don't fight the trend.....that's,ah,2 things.

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That's correct, yes.
in that case it might be worth the gamble if one could figure out how to beat the system. dont think it would work in states as the tax man awaits for any winnings..lotto...etc they think somehow that they own about 50% of ones winnings. not sure how it would work in canada.

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in that case it might be worth the gamble if one could figure out how to beat the system. dont think it would work in states as the tax man awaits for any winnings..lotto...etc they think somehow that they own about 50% of ones winnings. not sure how it would work in canada.

 

'Beating the system', with any consistency, would be virtually the same as trading profitably in the underlying market.

 

As far as I am aware, the UK is the only place where tax laws and regulations allow over the counter products called 'spread betting'. CFDs are fairly similar (usually the same companies offer both), but with a reduced tax advantage.

 

If you're smart enough to trade and produce consistent profits, Patuca, then there's no doubt that you will be able to suss out how to protect your profits from the tax man, whether in the US, Canada, or anywhere else (I'll give you a two word clue though: "off-shore jurisdiction").

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Dear WHY,

I have spent over two years studying Brooks.

I know price action backwards.

And I make a consistant profit.

But I dont make a million!!

There is something missing.

I believe all markets move in WIDE consolidation , between reports/news/ results/politics, etc

Its all random for weeks and months.

WIDE sideways movement

And you can trade this WIDE sideways movement profitably.

But you wont make a million

The market will suddenly make a BIG move and then go back to sideways

How do I find that BIG move.?

TTT?

Patterns?

Fundamentals? Hello.

Kind regards

bobc

 

And then

Look at the three charts. One explains the 4 stages that longer trends go thru. The other two are the CASH S&P up thru 4-3-2012. What stage would you say it is in? What stage comes next? Is it the correct time to catch a big move? If not, what would you do? This is basic stuff here. Simple, but also shedding light on how big moves are born, mature, and wind down. Of course, there are two main plays here. A long side and a short side. There are books written that deal with these sort big moves. I don't play the big moves but if I did I think I would want a clear methodolgy of determining just where we are at in the move and what is probally going to happen next. Just some thoughts on your post. Might be helpful. May not be helpful.

5aa710e645ede_SP.png.3aab42cb9f18fec1b6f128f8ff698d0a.png

5aa710e64aa74_SPCash.gif.55715c23befb40039fb35f17b43221ce.gif

4stages.pdf

Edited by WHY?

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Look at the three charts. One explains the 4 stages that longer trends go thru. The other two are the CASH S&P up thru 4-3-2012. What stage would you say it is in? What stage comes next? Is it the correct time to catch a big move? If not, what would you do? This is basic stuff here. Simple, but also shedding light on how big moves are born, mature, and wind down. Of course, there are two main plays here. A long side and a short side. There are books written that deal with these sort big moves. I don't play the big moves but if I did I think I would want a clear methodolgy of determining just where we are at in the move and what is probally going to happen next. Just some thoughts on your post. Might be helpful. May not be helpful.

 

Dear WHY,

I love your post.

Thankyou for giving my question some thought

The 4 stages of the market are so simple, I am going back to basics on my BIG MOVE theory.And the moving average clearly shows the stages.

Another question for you before you disappear into the jungles of Hondorus.

Would it be possible to change TTT from a daily to a weekly/ monthly cycle.?:question:

That would highlight the big move

Kind regards

bobc

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Dear WHY,

I love your post.

Thankyou for giving my question some thought

The 4 stages of the market are so simple, I am going back to basics on my BIG MOVE theory.And the moving average clearly shows the stages.

Another question for you before you disappear into the jungles of Hondorus.

Would it be possible to change TTT from a daily to a weekly/ monthly cycle.?:question:

That would highlight the big move

Kind regards

bobc

You are welcome. I have never tried adapting Taylor that way but my guess would be that it may work. I have just never been interested in investing in long term trends. I have adapted his method on intraday charts and seen some promising stuff down to 15 minute charts. Perhaps there is an element of human nature (as markets do reflect that) and perhaps Taylor discovered a manifestation of that in a 3 day cycle senario. Humphrey Neil in Tape reading and Market tactics said "the ticker tape is simply a record of human nature passing in review". I suppose if it does record human nature on a minute by minute basis it would also on a 5 min chart...15 minute..daily..or weekly..even monthly. The old timers of course read the tape from a ticker machine which served pretty much the same as a time and sales screen of this age but on a much slower basis. However, what I find interesting when these old timers discuss tape reading they do it from a chart and use a chart to show examples. Therefore, that makes me think; can the tape be read from a chart? That is, can the chart be considered a useful, grafical, representation of the ticker tape/time and sales and in itself be called "the tape". I decided it was so. Therefore, I call this classical tape reading. It really isn't the way they "read" the tape in those days but it is the way they "explained" the tape. See, if the ticker machine and time and sales can be seen as small increments of the tape why couldn't the tape be seen in a larger way such as a chart. After all, the chart is a representation of the ticker/time and sales. Cliff Drokes thought along these same lines and mentioned it in his book tape reading for the 21st century. A quick look at the old timers. Neil, Gann, Wycoff..their explanations of the tape were done in chart form. Actually, Tom Williams work does the same thing. It is reading the tape in the form of charts looking for institutional activity. So anyway, when I refer to reading the tape in some of my posts I mean all the way from the time and sales/DOM/Orderflow to a hybrid version of reading the tape from charts. Of course, the DOM/Orderflow/time and sale is basically meaningless when you are talking about a trend of several weeks. Gann (in The Truth of the Stock Market Tape) read and explained the tape for these sort of longer trends from a chart. The time and sale/DOM/orderflow have gotton so fast now days (unlike the ticker tape of days gone by) that with algos and all the HFT out there the tape moves faster and faster (even at a nano second level) that the human eye cannot pick it up. Some daytraders/scalpers have taken to using computers to help them read them tape and stitch back up big orders that have been broken up to hide footprints..etc. However, in the final analysis the product of the tape volume/price shows up on a chart. So, I have taken to reading the tape from the charts. I say all this about tape reading because it is my belief that to be able to use Taylor properly it will require not just a knowledge of the cycles ..etc... but also a knowledge of how to read the tape from a chart. That is how one is going to conclude if a decline has stopped at a probable Taylor Low or a Taylor High has been reached. Or failed to reach it. It helps one to anticipate failures to penetrate previous days cycles and stopping point for declines and rallies. Just calculating the average of Taylors decline/rallies...coupled with the three day cycle theory etc isn't enough to get the job done. I know this to be so. Taylor himself mentioned several times about reading the tape so I know that he did so in conjunction with all his analysis and averages and figures. He basically clocked the market like one would clock a slot machine but his final pull from the trigger came from tape reading. That is why for years I have talked about in my Taylor posts when I say my entry here or exit there depends on the tape. Most folks never catch it or maybe they don't understand the tape? That is why I listed those books in my pompous post :) as my intent was to give some resources to folks where they could learn about tape reading from what I call a classical view i.e. a chart. IT IS THE FINE TUNING OF THE TAYLOR METHODOLOGY. Trust me Taylor will only work well if one can read the tape for entries. On less than ideal day cycles one will miss the trend if they can't read the tape. Take my last Taylor chart (I refer you to post #216 and the post #212 anticipating the price action of #216). It was an ideal Taylor taylor BUY day. The market is taken down overnight for a shorting opportunity and I said that was what I was looking and I expected it in the night session (re-read my post #212..this was made before the fact). Then, when the day session started we had the reversal and a chance to go long and make a killing. But notice something here. The low didn't make it to the taylor projected low of 3-30 1395.75 or 1394.56.... my softaware forecast. The reversal came. If I couldn't read the tape and see that the reversal was here then I would have waited around for the market to make the Taylor projected low and I would have missed the move up. So, it was an ideal Taylor BUY day in terms of the Taylor Strategy (look to short and go long) and the direction (take the market down then back up early in the session) BUT it WAS NOT an ideal Taylor BUY day in terms of the projected low. Nor in terms of the projected high. My software projected a high of 1406.19 when the actually high after that great rally was 1419.75. Nothing but tape reading would have kept me in the Taylor moves for that day in spite of the facts that the direction being right and the short/long opportunities being righ (as not all Taylor buy days give a short/long opportunity.)

 

This is a long way around the block to answer your question but me thinks it may be relevant to your question. So........

 

It is possible there could be a 3 week cycle? Or a 3 month cycle? Me thinks it is possible but then again tape reading, in the sense that I am discussed above,..well...it will be necessary as the time/sale/dom/ will be totally irrelevant to a 3 week cycle. You will have to use the sort of tape reading I am talking about. As much as some people don't like Tom Williams and VSA he did have alot of good stuff that is useful for tape reading. Wiliams is good too in the sense that this sort of tape reading I am talking about requires an analysis of the spread. The size of the spread says alot about the tape. The volume of trading on that spread size says alot too. We have volume and we have price and price spread and open and closing. I have never understood why pure price action people want to leave out that piece of important data, namely, volume. It tells how the price was made. And indicates the value of the price in terms of money and money is what moves the market. You and I don't move the markets. Institutions move the markets. And their foot print is the volume. Anyway I better shut up about volume. I will say two more things about volume. To read the tape like I talk about in this post one will have to take volume into consideration. The second thing is IF anything is a leading indicator it is VOLUME. I ahve nothing like it that helps me better detect probable future price action. Of course it can be wrong sometimes simply because institutions can be wrong sometimes. And institutions are battling out with each other and they all approach the market in their own way. One institution may start aggressive buying and that pushes the price up when a stronger one beings shorting and wins out. Either way the story is told in the tape (chart). And so much faking out goes on. Make the market look weak to drive down a few ticks so they can really buy at a discount price because their real plan is to take the market up.

 

As much as some don't like Gann his book I mentioned it as being useful and especially Drokes book. Also,Silver mentioned Neils book which I had somehow left out but yes, it is important too.

 

Why don't you make some books up on on these longer time frames and let us know what you find out?

 

For those that are interested in extreme scalping based on tape reading the order flow and using a computer to do so can take a look at jigsaw trading. Google it. I have absolutely nothing to do with jigsaw so please mitt don't think that. I mention them as a resource only. For trading order flow from DOM look at NO BS Trading by John Grady. However, this sort of tape reading is very short-term and for scalping and isn't relevant to Taylor trading. It can be somewhat useful for scalping via Brooks methods if one likes to scalp and take longer Taylor positions also like I like to do.

 

Hope all this makes sense. Probally won't be back for a bit.

 

Why?

Edited by WHY?

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Dear WHY

Thanks for the idea. I am going to make a book on weekly highs and lows and see what is possible . Instaed of a Buy day I will have a Buy week.And a bigger stop loss!!!

Kind regards

bobc

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Dear WHY

Thanks for the idea. I am going to make a book on weekly highs and lows and see what is possible . Instaed of a Buy day I will have a Buy week.And a bigger stop loss!!!

Kind regards

bobc

Sounds great. I would be interested in knowing what you find out. If you will do one on the S&P CASH index also I will shadow you with my software. I have to enter CASH S&P manually as for some reason I cannot get my trading platform to give me the data on that symbol. I get it from here if you want to use the same place so we will be on the same page so to speak. http://www.barchart.com/charts/stocks/SPY00

 

I will plug the weekly data into it and see what it tells me. I think we may be onto something here. Weinstein has some things to say about longer trends. His book can be gotton real cheap at amazon I believe. One thing about MA's. I don't use them as signal/entry. I use them them to help me see the trend quickly at any given moment. There is nothing that says a price has to stop at a moving average although at times it does and it does in fact appear institutions will take it there before reversing it. Maybe they know people are trading at and watching the MA's??

Edited by WHY?

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Sounds great. I would be interested in knowing what you find out. If you will do one on the ES June contract also I will shadow you with my software. That is, I will plug the weekly data into it and see what it tells me. I think we may be onto something here. Weinstein has some things to say about longer trends. His book can be gotton real cheap at amazon I believe. One thing about MA's. I don't use them as signal/entry. I use them them to help me see the trend quickly at any given moment. There is nothing that says a price has to stop at a moving average although at times it does and it does in fact appear institutions will take it there before reversing it. Maybe they know people are trading at and watching the MA's??

 

Dear WHY

I live in South Africa. There is no ES.I want to get away from an index because my index does not offer volume. And I need volume to persue your tape reading ideas.So I will make a book on stocks . SASOL which is listed on the NYSE and ANGLO which is listed in London.

regards bobc

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Sounds great. I would be interested in knowing what you find out. If you will do one on the S&P CASH index also I will shadow you with my software. I have to enter CASH S&P manually as for some reason I cannot get my trading platform to give me the data on that symbol. I get it from here if you want to use the same place so we will be on the same page so to speak. SPY00 | Index Price Chart for S&P 500 Index

 

I will plug the weekly data into it and see what it tells me. I think we may be onto something here. Weinstein has some things to say about longer trends. His book can be gotton real cheap at amazon I believe. One thing about MA's. I don't use them as signal/entry. I use them them to help me see the trend quickly at any given moment. There is nothing that says a price has to stop at a moving average although at times it does and it does in fact appear institutions will take it there before reversing it. Maybe they know people are trading at and watching the MA's??

 

Guess it should be me since i make all my analysis on the cash index.I'll post something later - a simplified chart i made a while back,just need to clear off the irrelevant (to the thread) information on it.

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Guess it should be me since i make all my analysis on the cash index.I'll post something later - a simplified chart i made a while back,just need to clear off the irrelevant (to the thread) information on it.

 

Welcome back mitsubishi

I think thats a mighty fine idea. You also know a lot more than me about TTT so the results will be more reliable

regards

bobc

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Guess it should be me since i make all my analysis on the cash index.I'll post something later - a simplified chart i made a while back,just need to clear off the irrelevant (to the thread) information on it.
ok do it on a weekly book

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…main players to buy low and sell high in a repeatable,mechanical system that is observable to the trained eye.He describes a cycle of buying low,selling into a rising market and short selling at the top of a move.From this point the market is sold down to a new buying point and the cycle repeats again.He divided this cycle into 3 days- a buy day a sell day and a short sell day
Mit

 

Hopefully this is ‘beyond’ enough for the thread… Could we circle back to the 3 ‘day’ question I asked earlier.

"Why aren’t’ there 4 phases instead of 3?"

 

3 phase because that is what Taylor observed to be happening. Plus you are basically buying long and selling that position and then shorting and covering so if those action fit into an observable three phase cycle no need to add more. His methology gives ample opportunity to go long and short and capturing a goodly portion of the days action while playing the cycle.

WHY post #76

 

I initially just took WHY?’s answer at face value: in essence that was just what Taylor observed . But “…buying long and selling that position [ / ‘covering’ longs] and then shorting and covering [ shorts] …” is four actions. Maybe I’m just ‘thick’, but those four actions only fit into “an observable three phase cycle” only if you are combining two of them as 1 of the 3 actions of the “main players””manipulations”)(hereinafter referred to as mini campaigns).

/ doing two of them at virtually the same time (ie not necessarily at the exact same moment but within a very, very short time span / same segment of a trading session) / reversing

 

So here are questions ‘behind’ my original "Why aren’t’ there 4 phases instead of 3?"

Was Taylor simply observing that all four of the actions / phases of these mini campaigns were typically accomplished in 3 days?

and / or

Taylor

Did he have a right skewed bias?

or

Did he just use right skewed examples?

or

They didn’t do left skewed mini campaigns back then ???

 

In real time, I do observe left skewed mini campaigns. For me, this means (if in TaylorLand we must continue to fit 4 acts into 3 phases ;) ) , for clarity and to prevent right skewed perceptual habituation for some, it may be more accurate to label the left skewed cycles Sell phase /day, short phase, and buy phase and retain the classic labeling of Buy phase, sell phase, short phase for the right skewed campaigns.

 

Probably picayune to the TTT masters but including which way the current mini campaign is skewed / preventing right skewed perceptual habituation might keep some of us from being the ‘minor’ suckers by always playing as if it’s a right skew world when it’s not.…. ie not “ capturing a goodly portion of the days action while playing the cycle.” when it's a sell down mini campaign.

 

...hopefully someone has given this some thought and can share… thanks.

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Mit

 

Hopefully this is ‘beyond’ enough for the thread… Could we circle back to the 3 ‘day’ question I asked earlier.

"Why aren’t’ there 4 phases instead of 3?"

 

 

WHY post #76

 

I initially just took WHY?’s answer at face value: in essence that was just what Taylor observed . But “…buying long and selling that position [ / ‘covering’ longs] and then shorting and covering [ shorts] …” is four actions. Maybe I’m just ‘thick’, but those four actions only fit into “an observable three phase cycle” only if you are combining two of them as 1 of the 3 actions of the “main players””manipulations”)(hereinafter referred to as mini campaigns).

/ doing two of them at virtually the same time (ie not necessarily at the exact same moment but within a very, very short time span / same segment of a trading session) / reversing

 

So here are questions ‘behind’ my original "Why aren’t’ there 4 phases instead of 3?"

Was Taylor simply observing that all four of the actions / phases of these mini campaigns were typically accomplished in 3 days?

and / or

Taylor

Did he have a right skewed bias?

or

Did he just use right skewed examples?

or

They didn’t do left skewed mini campaigns back then ???

 

In real time, I do observe left skewed mini campaigns. For me, this means (if in TaylorLand we must continue to fit 4 acts into 3 phases ;) ) , for clarity and to prevent right skewed perceptual habituation for some, it may be more accurate to label the left skewed cycles Sell phase /day, short phase, and buy phase and retain the classic labeling of Buy phase, sell phase, short phase for the right skewed campaigns.

 

Probably picayune to the TTT masters but including which way the current mini campaign is skewed / preventing right skewed perceptual habituation might keep some of us from being the ‘minor’ suckers by always playing as if it’s a right skew world when it’s not.…. ie not “ capturing a goodly portion of the days action while playing the cycle.” when it's a sell down mini campaign.

 

...hopefully someone has given this some thought and can share… thanks.

I think you may be confusing some issues here. Taylor believed the market to be manipulated over a 3 day period. During that 3 day period there would be opportunities for two type of actions. 1) Going long and selling that long position 2) Shorting and cover that short position. For instance, you can take advantage of action number 1 above on three occasions: Low made first on a buy day. In this case you sell the long on the next day or same day if you are daytrading. The next occasion for going long and selling that long was on a Day 2 of the cycle i.e. a SELL if early in the session a low is made below the low of the previous day (which would be a buy day) then you go LONG and sell that long on any good rally back to or through the low of the previous day (low of that buy day). You must complete this action the same day and not hold overnight. The third opportunity for action number 1 is on a BUY day say it doesn't trade down very well at all but near the end of the day it has held a higher low than that of the previous day (ss day) then you can take a long position. This is called buying a higher bottom on BUY day. Taylor says it is usually profitable. But generally you would hold this position until a decline starts which could be the next day or even the followoing SS day.

 

In summary, I have just described to you 3 times which Taylor espoused taking and a long position and selling it over the course of the 3 day cycle. You can't just simply fit the actions into phases and call it a shorting phase or a long phase. Why is this? Well I have just explained that there are two long opportunies presented on the buy day and one long opportunity presented on the Sell day. You take every which one actually works out in the market.

 

Now look at shorting opportunities. Taylor says you can short a high made first early in the session on a buy day and cover it the same day. You can short also on a SS day on a high made first and cover the same day or the next day. Look at my post #216 again. It was a buy day. It closed high on the previous day. That means that odds favored a decline in the next trading session (buy day 4-2). Therefore, I was looking to employ action # 2 above FIRST on this buy day. That is, I was looking to short on a decline made first then reverse and go long on action number one, occasion number 1, mentioned above. That is, I was anticipating the market being to be taken down first on the buy day 4-2 (why? well because it closed high on the previous day). Then I was anticipating a market reversal thus giving me an opportunity to cover my short and to take a long opportunity per occasion #1 under action number #1.

 

Maybe I haven't confused the issue even more for you. In summary you can't just divide it up into a shorting phase and a long phase. You can go long or short on the very same BUY day. There are no shorting phases and buying phases. There are only shorting opportunties and buying opportunities and they are multiple and they occur over the three day cycle.There are no mini campaigns. There are only shorting and long opportunities over a 3 day period. Hope this explanation helps.

Edited by WHY?

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Here is a what a weekly book looks like,created the same way the ordinary book is.Havent had much time to dig deeper,but from a quick glance I did not see any valueable information created.It misses volume though,should be summed up per week also,shouldnt it.

TTT_WEEKLY.bmp

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Here is a what a weekly book looks like,created the same way the ordinary book is.Havent had much time to dig deeper,but from a quick glance I did not see any valueable information created.It misses volume though,should be summed up per week also,shouldnt it.

 

Hi Silver

You are a man of action

How many weeks is this. ?

14? The first three dont count until the low is made

 

regards

bobc

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Bob,

 

yes its 14weeks,the first 3 do count also,but I just "worked" 10 as I would do when starting an ordinary book.From the low you would normally continue either direction with the count,so the very first low would be a "BUY" week,too.But I just wanted to see quickly what it looks like. What it does show already,is the violations of the count.

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Bob,

 

yes its 14weeks,the first 3 do count also,but I just "worked" 10 as I would do when starting an ordinary book.From the low you would normally continue either direction with the count,so the very first low would be a "BUY" week,too.But I just wanted to see quickly what it looks like. What it does show already,is the violations of the count.

 

Hi Silver

Well that didn't get very far.:roll eyes:

Silver. Please try a different market.

I think the silver market is too quiet.

regards

bobc

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Hi Silver

Well that didn't get very far.:roll eyes:

Silver. Please try a different market.

I think the silver market is too quiet.

regards

bobc

 

 

Bob,

 

being solely in silver kind of narrows my perspective;)

It might be best if you provided me an instrument that fulfills being not quiet:)

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This is a simplified chart starting last December to february showing weekly H/L's.2nd chart is the same thing,the extra numbers show the increase in points from high to high and low to low.The blue numbers show the number of swings before a pullback (lower low).Bob,you will need to keep a record of which came first(high or low) going forward if you want to do something similar,as a bar chart does not tell you that,nor does a list of OHLC data

5aa710e7e122e_WEEKLYH-Ldec19-march6B.thumb.png.0e6d370a60e0f88bee1fb667e62d0050.png

5aa710e7e785b_WEEKLYH-Ldec19-march6.thumb.png.1409c56162e276d52aa116adfc66e013.png

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Bob,

 

being solely in silver kind of narrows my perspective;)

It might be best if you provided me an instrument that fulfills being not quiet:)

 

Hi Silver

How about OIL ... crude light.

Regardless of the TTT experiment, I would be interested in whether you see more movement in Oil compared to Silver.:offtopic:

regards

bobc

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This is a simplified chart starting last December to february showing weekly H/L's.2nd chart is the same thing,the extra numbers show the increase in points from high to high and low to low.The blue numbers show the number of swings before a pullback (lower low).Bob,you will need to keep a record of which came first(high or low) going forward if you want to do something similar,as a bar chart does not tell you that,nor does a list of OHLC data

 

Hi mitsubishi

You are also a man of action

I am still fiddling around

I also see a nice trading system in your chart. But its always easier in a bull market.

I like the way you measure the swings.

regards

bobc

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    • Came back to check on price after an hour of meditation, EU came within 3 ticks of target... Fascinating the ego brings up the story of betrayal, as if the market was out there to get me. I then reminded myself cool, this trade went over 2R. Even better yet, I acted consistently with executing my trading plan! Let the market do its thing. 
    • I took this limit long on the retest of the earlier 123 and support area. Target is near top of the zone. I notice that my target needs to be more mechanical in the sense that I may be influence to have a more/less aggressive target based on the results of the last trade. I have collected some modifications for the next batch of trades. 
    • Correction: the GU made it to 45 out of a 49 tick target. It was a 2.5R full target, not 3R. The EU long trade was 7:15am EST. I will refrain from getting up even earlier with the goal of not missing the next one. I notice after each trade, the mind, with the desire of wanting to experience a win, subtly pushes me to deviate from trading plan. My main concern with this set of 20 trades is build a greater sense of consistency in my execution and self trust. I realized the outcome of each individual trade absolutely does not matter. If I started to care about it, I am assuming that somehow I am responsible for the market's movement, which I am not. I am only responsible for following my trading plan, which can be adjusted after the 20 trades based on the stats I collect. 
    • GU closed for -1R. It made it to 2.8R but not quite the 3R. There was also a EU long trade that happened about 4:15am EST. FOMC is over now so let's see if we can get a nice trend setup today.  
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