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mitsubishi

Beyond Taylor

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"Successful speculation is not based on any one set of inflexible rules and a trader must be ready to change when conditions change.However,the trader who knows how to act when the expected happens is in a better position to act when the unexpected happens"

 

From the preface of The Taylor Trading Technique by George Douglass Taylor

 

SPX March 5th-9th

 

Weekly range- 34.7 points

 

Mon range- 10.4 points

Tues range- 23.6 points

Weds range- 11.5 points

Thurs range- 16.1 points

Fri range- 8.8 points

 

Total- 70.4 points

 

If you measure every swing up/down throughout the week the total,of course increases.

How many points did you take last week?

 

Taylor devised some very good strategies for both intraday and swing trading that allow the trader to attempt to capture the maximum number of points,with as few trades as possible,and with the least amount of risk.

His techniques are based on the premise that markets are not random,but are manipulated in order to allow the main players to buy low and sell high in a repeatable,mechanical system that is observable to the trained eye.He describes a cycle of buying low,selling into a rising market and short selling at the top of a move.From this point the market is sold down to a new buying point and the cycle repeats again.He divided this cycle into 3 days- a buy day a sell day and a short sell day.

The entire strategy is counter intuitive to many traders who wait for "confirmation" of a move before entering,and many enter at exactly the wrong point,and this is what the main players count on.

It therefore follows that the best time to buy is when price is falling.Note not when price begins to fall but as close to the end of the short selling part of the cycle,and as near to the beginning of the buying part of the cycle as possible..So you are looking for a buy point when price looks weak and selling when price looks strong.

Taylor gave very clear (once you have deciphered his writing style) rules on when to look for the buying point and at what price level,and when to sell,where to short sell,and at what price levels.

He also kept what he called a "trading book",where he measured the size of the rally and the size of the decline in order to determine which side of the market the main players were on at any one time.The idea,being,for example,that if the last decline was less points than the previous rally,then those players remained on the long side of the market.In other words,the present decline is a buying opportunity,rather than a reversal of the trend.

How he measured those rallies/declines is not from the most obvious points on a chart.Once you understand how he did this you realise that good information such as this is hidden right in front of you.

Once you have a good understanding of this method you will find yourself taking less trades,more points and staying on the right side of the market more often.

Although this book was written over 50 years ago you can adapt his methods to the modern market and also to your own trading style.

 

I want to invite any traders who are interested in this method,or think they might be interested in learning about this method to take an active part in building this thread into a useful resource.This thread is not intended to be my personal journal- i'm here to gain further insights as much as anyone else on this board.

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I am into silver and had a weekly range of 0.88 with a total range of 6.28...week had two H2L days which were preceeded by a third one....stayed out till near the low of third and went long from there caught 1.68 so far.....H2L days would have been short opportunities though

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Hi mitsubishi

Thanks for taking the initiative and the leadership to starting this Taylor Trading Technique thread, its a most welcome opportunity to have you as our guide and teacher as we venture into the mind of George Douglas Taylor. Unknown and unforgotten by most modern day traders as names like WD Gann , Fibonacci and R N Elliott have dominated the headlines. Yet the Taylor method while not as publicized as others, is remarkable accurate in today's market as it was 50 years ago.

 

Not much is know of Taylor or of his private or public life and very few even have a working knowledge of his methodology, whether its because of his incomprehensible style of writing, or perhaps he intentionally wrote in a veiled style of language similar to the veiled writings of WD Gann in his book The Tunnel Thru The Air, so as to keep secret his trading techniques. It seems that 50 years have passed and only a few have been able to comprehend the method hidden in his book, so I am sure that Taylor would be happy to know that his secrets are still well hidden as it is obvious if anyone attempts to read his book on a cursory level only, that within the first few pages they would have lost interest and given up. But the few that have had the patience and the desire to unravel his method will be rewarded with a fascinating and accurate trading method.

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In getting some material together for this thread i am having to re-read Taylor's book,and it still is,in parts,hard going.And,damn,i know the ideas quite well,and yet,i am having to read lines and paragraphs over and again.I can only wonder at how a man can make such simple concepts so tricky to grasp.

All the while you are learning this technique you really have to visualize the chart action that he is talking about,while bearing in mind the previous day's action(s) So i am constructing some diagrams similar to the ones i sketched when first i read this book.

Any reader here new to these ideas needs to appreciate that you cannot get every variation of say,"the buy day" on a single diagram.Taylor's ideas are very logical and simple once understood and it is then the trader's job to apply them in the best possible way according to current market conditions,and most importantly,which side of the market he believes the main players to be on.That part is to do with running your "book" which we will get to later.

So the next 3 diagrams will show the ideal Buy day,sell day and short sell day cycle pattern and then we can deal with the variations.But let us start at the very beginning and that is to begin your cycle count.

The chart below has the explanation for that.

5aa710dac2972_last10days.thumb.gif.3a5ad9b989213170981ac30cd88ea102.gif

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Its interesting that you have 3/6 as a Sell day, in my book which I started back on 11/22/2010 3/6 is a Sell Short day for me and Taylor was right when he said that it does not matter what day you begin the count from so long as you maintain the cycle, because 3/7 would be my Buy day and as it turns out that was the beginning of the up move, now my question on a Buy day, you are supposed to enter at or below the low of the Sell Short day, on 3/6 the low was 1333 but on 3/7 my Buy day the low was 1338.75. So where would I have entered the trade or does it mean that I did not get filled?

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Hi mitsubishi

Just a technical question

When you trade using TTT,are you using a chart?

Do you really need a chart?

regards

bobc

 

That's a great question.How best to answer it? The short answer is i don't need a chart most of the time.Last night i set a limit order to buy this pullback and i have it within a few ticks.So far the market is pretty dull (on my time frame) we haven't taken out friday's high and i'm showing a small profit.What should i do,stare at the screen and watch the bots play tennis?. We need to make a significant move from here to justify another trading decision.All i need to do is keep half an eye on the chart.My "best information" is that the probability remains on the long side,but there is no strength so far.But then,the bears aren't exactly having a field day either.If the situation changes significantly ,i will act accordingly.If you go back to 2008 when we had huge volatility,i was in and out all day,which really isn't my style,but i always think the market shows you what is available and you then try to take best advantage of that.So,of course,then i was glued to the screen.When i was learning,in the early days,i was glued to the screen.

So,if your trading style dictates that you watch the market closely all day,i guess that's what you do,and if not,then you don't.If conditions are such that you need to see how prices are reacting around certain levels,then when those levels are reached you pay close attention.For me there is a lot of "noise" on the chart that isn't tradable

But when you have money in the market,then the market is never far from your mind.No matter how long you play this game,you are constantly reminding yourself, "what is my trading plan?" what are the possible scenarios? is what i'm seeing fitting with expectations? how is my index performing against the Dow,the Nasdaq,is it leading/lagging? What's the balance between adv/decl issues? how is the financial sector performing against the other sectors? Sounds a lot,but really it's just a glance,a quick update,all to answer the question,should i be long short or flat.I am holding long today,and so far there is nothing to tell me to do otherwise.The position is smaller than it would be if we were back at 1340 since some kind of pullback was likely and we have it today.Is this the day that the trend ends and we get the start of a big decline.My best information says it's not likely.

And btw,i glanced at the chart 3 times while typing this....and the song remains the same..so far:)

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Its interesting that you have 3/6 as a Sell day, in my book which I started back on 11/22/2010 3/6 is a Sell Short day for me and Taylor was right when he said that it does not matter what day you begin the count from so long as you maintain the cycle, because 3/7 would be my Buy day and as it turns out that was the beginning of the up move, now my question on a Buy day, you are supposed to enter at or below the low of the Sell Short day, on 3/6 the low was 1333 but on 3/7 my Buy day the low was 1338.75. So where would I have entered the trade or does it mean that I did not get filled?

 

Another good question,and interesting how your cycle differs from mine.Well the market will do what it wants and in this case it depends on your prior position.If you are flat before the open on the 7th you have to decide if you are going to buy a higher low to get on the continuing trend (long).On that day the open was the low and broke through some early resistance and climbed higher all day ending 2.2 points off the high.So,In short,you are forced to buy a higher low.

What does Taylor say about this? He says that in this case buying a higher low when the main trend is long favours a good rally.That is what you got.For you,this being your buy day,the low came first which is what you want,but the most ideal situation would have been a small pullback at the open to test the prev day low as you said.You would feel safer buying here- a test of a low in an uptrend.

Now let's refer back to this same decision you have to make on the open of the 7th,but this time you are already holding your long from the 6th,so not flat.What does Taylor say about this? He says that if the open is up you have an early opportunity to take your profit and wait for the next days play.Why he says that is because if the market gives you a good profit early you should take it.You don't know for certain that the initial move up on the 7th won't turn out to be the high of the day.

But in the final analysis a trader is his own master and decides what his own personal rules are.Taylor is about working out the probabilities before they occur,taking advantage of them when they happen as expected,and only playing the most favorable setups.

He says don't worry what happens after you get out in terms of profits you left on the table,there is always another play around the corner.So if you got out early on the 7th and closed your long from the 6th it is not the best play to chase the rally that continued all day but rather,to await the short sell play should this rally produce a high early on the short sell day- an ideal short sell play.

Edited by mitsubishi

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Mit

In your explanation of the chart in post 5 you said that Taylor says it doesn't matter if two people have different cycles. Could you direct me to the place in his book where he says that? Thanks

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Mit

In your explanation of the chart in post 5 you said that Taylor says it doesn't matter if two people have different cycles. Could you direct me to the place in his book where he says that? Thanks

 

I will have to find it,give me some time to do that.Are you saying you have a copy of the book and can't find it,or you haven't read it?

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Mit

 

In your count do you count just day session in the emini ES or do you take into consideration the night session too?

 

Another good question.If my price objective/limit order gets triggered overnight that is a bonus from my point of view.If i am long say,and i'm waiting for a high made first the next day to get out,should that print overnight i will be out.Often,it can print in the 15 minutes after the cash session closes.Taylor says take a good profit when it is offered so i believe i am trading within that spirit,if you like.But i've said elsewhere,the market shows you what is on offer and it is your job to take that in the best way possible.

Regarding your first question,one answer in the meantime is that Taylor says choose a 10 day period and find the lowest low and make that your buy day.He must know that when he writes that,he cannot know which10 day period you will choose,which implies it doesn't matter.But it's important to find the quote if it's there.I will look.

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Mitsubishi or anyone else, just curious if anyone had any comments on these 2 websites that are offering the TTT service, has anyone ever subscribed for their daily recommendations?

 

Taylor Trading Technique: Trade in Sync with Market Trend

Taylor Trading Technique | TTT E-books | Guide to Trading TTT E-books

 

I have seen these 2 sites before.The first i know nothing about really except to say it doesn't look like a scam site.The second one i believe there is a a user here Richbois who is associated/owns that site and has written on a previous Taylor thread here.The carrot they are dangling (it appears to me) is that more sophisticated means are required to determine which side the main players are on and they have a good system that tells them.I don't know,except for me personally,if ain't broke don't fix it,and second i only rely on my own analysis.The other statistics they list that are on offer really don't interest me personally,i can guess what they are using and my own numbers are pretty reliable.

I do not want to suggest in any way that this isn't a decent service for the money that they are providing.Just saying for me,the only thing i can trust is my own analysis and would feel lost relying on somebody else.I'm in good company since it was a belief held by Jesse Livermore.

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hi Mit, Thanks very much for your comments on the 2 websites, yes I have read the previous thread where Richbios has posted extensively, he is quite knowledgeable on the Taylor method, I actually learned quite a bit from that thread when I started my initial studies on this method. Its about 150 pages long and I believe you were also part of that thread.

 

In the earlier part of my studies I must admit that I became a victim of frustration and just like I wrote in my earlier introductory post, I gave up on the book and it was not until 10 years later which was back in November 2010, I rediscovered the book laying on my bookshelf, so I did a search on this website TradersLaboratory and found that original 150 page thread. It was quite a delight to discover that there was so much interest in the method, that I was inspired to start studying it again and thanks to all the discussions on that thread, I am thankful because of what I learned from everyone that contributed.

 

I am much more comfortable with the material now whereby before I was not able to follow or understand anything that was discussed as it was just too confusing

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hi Mit, Thanks very much for your comments on the 2 websites, yes I have read the previous thread where Richbios has posted extensively, he is quite knowledgeable on the Taylor method, I actually learned quite a bit from that thread when I started my initial studies on this method. Its about 150 pages long and I believe you were also part of that thread.

 

In the earlier part of my studies I must admit that I became a victim of frustration and just like I wrote in my earlier introductory post, I gave up on the book and it was not until 10 years later which was back in November 2010, I rediscovered the book laying on my bookshelf, so I did a search on this website TradersLaboratory and found that original 150 page thread. It was quite a delight to discover that there was so much interest in the method, that I was inspired to start studying it again and thanks to all the discussions on that thread, I am thankful because of what I learned from everyone that contributed.

 

I am much more comfortable with the material now whereby before I was not able to follow or understand anything that was discussed as it was just too confusing

 

Yes i remember that thread and you saying that in there.I am concerned at this point at the part where he makes up his book.It is incredibly hard to follow.That is the only part where i can find a mention of working out where you begin your cycle.And this is a later revised version i am reading and there is no improvement in his writing skills i can tell you.The tradition of people who can't write producing books is continued within this very forum by a certain psychologist here:fight: what a good debate we had in that thread.I say "we",meaning all other participants except fot the "writer" himself who did a sterling job in completely ignoring me :).Still,at least this guy Taylor was a trader and has some understanding of markets....;)

 

 

To answer Patuca's question,this is what it says.

 

TO MAKE UP TRADING BOOK

(paraphrasing) record the volume high low and close......

"these entries are recorded daily for a period of ten days:then the lowest price reached during this period is ringed and termed a Buying Day."

 

"a trading book started from any date should always be made up in the above manner so that it reads a Buying Day,1st Selling day,2nd selling day..(yet in the contents he calls this A short Sale Day)....then a Buying day,1st Selling Day,2nd Selling Day,then a Buying Day,etc"

 

"The book is always kept in the same order.Never change the continuity from the way it was started"

 

I still conclude from the above that no 2 traders will select the same 10 day period and so will have different cycles.He would have to say the cycle starts on an exact date in time which has to be referred to otherwise.And how would that cover every market? Most of his examples and references are to commodities,cotton,wheat corn,soybeans etc..That is what i originally concluded on first reading the book.Since that time other traders here and elsewhere have all had discussions confirming they have different cycles on the same index,no problems.I have tested changing the cycle from different points in time (i'm sure others would have done so) and have found there is no advantage.Why?

Because the ideal cycle will not trace out repeatedly,for if it did everybody could see it and it would stop working.If everybody wanted to buy the low made 1st on the buy day and sell the high made 1st on the short day who would take the other side?

So the ideal cycle does not always appear regardless of when you start your own cycle.You will run into the variations for which there are rules.They are not too difficult to grasp,and i plan to slowly work through those for all our benefit.

Taylor repeats a lot of what he says,and a lot of the time this makes things no clearer unless you read,re-read,make notes draw diagrams etc.Most of the time it is only a logical variation on the same theme.

But through all of this,you get enough understanding that you can see the simple logic behind it and you adapt the entire method to your trading style and to your knowledge of how your particular trading instrument moves.

Coming back to the book several years after working through that process is where i (we) are now.The thread would be helping all of us if we gain any new insights from revisiting the original source.There is no doubt that for me,this book was a major help in my trading.

The one area i am most concerned about is regarding measuring the rallies and declines.I think i have it right,or whatever i have works according to my backtesting.But that doesn't run as far back as i would like.And that is something i'm going to redress.I measure the decline from the short day high to the buy day low,and the rally from the buy day low to the sell day high.Who else is doing the same,or who is doing that differently?. If you consider that a different cycle starting point would produce a different result how does that work? I am not sure,that is something else to consider.But if having a different cycle starting point doesn't matter then this problem shouldn't be a problem either.

In my version there are 2 pages from Linda Bradford Raschke :"skip chapters 2,3 & 4 completely (How to make up a trading book, Uses for the columns and marks,The symbols as trend indicators) i do not make up a book as Taylor does,nor do i recommend doing so. I do write down the open high low and close and underline the 3 to 4 day swing lows and highs. It helps to keep some type of log by hand,it keeps trading "systematic"

I agree with that last part as i have done something similar since day one.

"Think in terms of concepts instead of specifics"

Again,i agree,that is what this book really teaches you.

I think overall,i have a good grip on the method,but i would like to go over/have more clarity on measuring/comparing rallies/declines,just to be sure i have that part right.

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The one area i am most concerned about is regarding measuring the rallies and declines.I think i have it right,or whatever i have works according to my backtesting.But that doesn't run as far back as i would like.And that is something i'm going to redress.I measure the decline from the short day high to the buy day low,and the rally from the buy day low to the sell day high.Who else is doing the same,or who is doing that differently?.

 

I think overall,i have a good grip on the method,but i would like to go over/have more clarity on measuring/comparing rallies/declines,just to be sure i have that part right.

 

That is correct. You have the rallies and declines correct for day trading. You just have to remember that Taylor speaks of using his method to trade 3 different ways. 1) Day trade. 2) Three day trade. 3) Trend trade.

 

In all practicality his category of Day Trade could in fact be a REAL day trade (that is flat at end of day under certain circumstances) or a swing trade where one is flat on the second day of the cycle - Sell day (if a long position had been taken). His category of three day trade is definetely swing trading and the rally goes from buy day to SS day and even at times to next buy day high made first. For instance, if you went long on the buy day and were trading the 3 day method you skip the sell day (i.e. second day of the cycle) and look to get flat on the SSday. However, IF the SS Day closes high then wait and get flat on the next day which will be a buy day with a high made first and the probabilities favor a higher high than the high of the previous day (i.e. the high of the SSday). Taylor labels things different but to make it easy just remember this (using a... going long... senario):

 

Day Trade Method (Most of the book deals with this method) = Flat on second day of the cycle (i.e. the sell day)..in some circumstances flat same day.

 

Swing trade (chapter XIII Three day Trading Method deals with this) = Flat on third day of the cycle (i.e. SS day) sometimes waiting to following by Buy day to get flat.

 

Trend (chap XIV The investor and swing trader and pages 95-97 deal with trend trading which can be weeks or months long) = Flat on successive SS days and Buy days high made first.

 

Much confusion comes when folks don't distinguish between these three methods that Taylor espoused.

 

In essence, the rally from Day trade method is from Buy day to Sell day.

The rally from Swing trade method that Taylor calls Three day method is from Buy day low to SS day high and at times next buy day high made first. The rally for the Trend method (that Taylor sometimes calls swing..hence more confusion) is measured from succesive buy day lows to successive SS day highs and at times succeeding buy day highs when high made first and is higher than the previous SS day high. Those are the measurements.

 

In summary there are 3 different types of declines and rallies. It depends on which of the three methods you are using. Just do 180 on all of it for shorting.

 

I hope this helps and doesn't confuse more????

 

I see here and there more sites springing up using the Taylor method or some hybrid version of it. I guess folks are reading the forums that have articles on it and learning more about it as I find most people don't have the stickability to pull out the gems in Taylors work. Many I think get headaches and quit...way too soon....:)

Edited by WHY?

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On the existence of only one true book.....if there were just one book that was right one would assume a fixed relationship between the individual days,i.e if buy day is x then the low on x would have to be X<(xt1) in regard to sell day,this would be a certain fact and also assume fixed relationships in the documented market (selling pressure on x and buying pressure on (x+1)).Since markets are rather chaotic than fixed in general this has me conclude that you cannot find the one and only book.One merely gets a snapshot of ten days and any two individuals with the same snapshot will end up with the same book.Different snapshots....higher likelihood of different books.

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On declines/rallies measured....I document several....

1. From SSH2BDL/BDL2SDH

2. SSH2BDL/BDL2SSH

3. previous day H to L/H to previous L

4. derived from 3 I designate rally and decline parts to singular days to show me buying and selling per day.Their ratio is my measurement of daily buying power.

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That is correct. You have the rallies and declines correct for day trading. You just have to remember that Taylor speaks of using his method to trade 3 different ways. 1) Day trade. 2) Three day trade. 3) Trend trade.

 

In all practicality his category of Day Trade could in fact be a REAL day trade (that is flat at end of day under certain circumstances) or a swing trade where one is flat on the second day of the cycle - Sell day (if a long position had been taken). His category of three day trade is definetely swing trading and the rally goes from buy day to SS day and even at times to next buy day high made first. For instance, if you went long on the buy day and were trading the 3 day method you skip the sell day (i.e. second day of the cycle) and look to get flat on the SSday. However, IF the SS Day closes high then wait and get flat on the next day which will be a buy day with a high made first and the probabilities favor a higher high than the high of the previous day (i.e. the high of the SSday). Taylor labels things different but to make it easy just remember this (using a... going long... senario):

 

Day Trade Method (Most of the book deals with this method) = Flat on second day of the cycle (i.e. the sell day)..in some circumstances flat same day.

 

Swing trade (chapter XIII Three day Trading Method deals with this) = Flat on third day of the cycle (i.e. SS day) sometimes waiting to following by Buy day to get flat.

 

Trend (chap XIV The investor and swing trader and pages 95-97 deal with trend trading which can be weeks or months long) = Flat on successive SS days and Buy days high made first.

 

Much confusion comes when folks don't distinguish between these three methods that Taylor espoused.

 

In essence, the rally from Day trade method is from Buy day to Sell day.

The rally from Swing trade method that Taylor calls Three day method is from Buy day low to SS day high and at times next buy day high made first. The rally for the Trend method (that Taylor sometimes calls swing..hence more confusion) is measured from succesive buy day lows to successive SS day highs and at times succeeding buy day highs when high made first and is higher than the previous SS day high. Those are the measurements.

 

In summary there are 3 different types of declines and rallies. It depends on which of the three methods you are using. Just do 180 on all of it for shorting.

 

I hope this helps and doesn't confuse more????

 

I see here and there more sites springing up using the Taylor method or some hybrid version of it. I guess folks are reading the forums that have articles on it and learning more about it as I find most people don't have the stickability to pull out the gems in Taylors work. Many I think get headaches and quit...way too soon....:)

 

Why,thank you so much for that post.You didn't confuse at all,actually made it very clear.Now i realise why i was concerned whether i had it right.I think what i must have done on first reading (which actually means reading some of it 20 times over :roll eyes:) is that because at the time i was more concerned with shorter time frames in my trading,i pulled out what i needed to fit with that and didn't worry about areas concerning swing trading.Now i do a mixture of both it would be worthwhile getting a better understanding on running the book for longer cycles.I did understand that you could hold through several cycles,but not the part on how to utilize the book with that time frame.

So your post has cleared up that confusion and helped direct focus on the missing part.Much appreciated.Hope you will stick around to keep this thread on the tracks.

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On declines/rallies measured....I document several....

1. From SSH2BDL/BDL2SDH

2. SSH2BDL/BDL2SSH

3. previous day H to L/H to previous L

4. derived from 3 I designate rally and decline parts to singular days to show me buying and selling per day.Their ratio is my measurement of daily buying power.

 

That is interesting in that it shows how a trader might adapt Taylor's ideas.My concern on the way you are doing it (not saying it's faulty) is how sure are you that the information you are capturing this way is telling you what you want it to tell you? I'm thinking in terms of what Taylor calls cross currents,the minor swings up and down. Also this:

"With the book trading we are concerned only with the Objective Points and we don't care much whether the price goes straight up or down to reach them." (chapter-1 How The Trend Is Made)

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On declines/rallies measured....I document several....

1. From SSH2BDL/BDL2SDH

2. SSH2BDL/BDL2SSH

3. previous day H to L/H to previous L

4. derived from 3 I designate rally and decline parts to singular days to show me buying and selling per day.Their ratio is my measurement of daily buying power.

 

In Taylors book one will find the chapter by George Angel (LSS) which is his adapted version of Taylor. There you will find the rally measurement to be previous days low to todays high. And for the decline previous days high to todays low. One has to understand that this was not any of Taylors measurements at all. Period. It was Angell adapting it to convert the ideas into a pure day trading system where one is most likely flat at the end of the day. While there is some merit to this adaptation it also basically does away with the capturing larger moves. In essence, it is measuring each days strenght or weakness. It isn't necessarily wrong but will throw a monkey wrench into the system when one is averaging the rallies or declines and still trying to capitalize on the manipulation over the course of a three day period cycle such as Taylor tracked. It is also interesting that you no longer find the LSS system for sell (at back in the 90's when I was looking for it it wasn't). That said one can think what they want about Angell but if it wasn't for him most of us today wouldn't have even heard of Taylor. Charles Ballentine, Angell, Linda Rascke, and Joe Ross can all be credited with keeping Taylors ideas alive going in this day and time. And of course without Mr Edward Dobson and Traders Press we probally even wouldn't have a Taylor book to look at except maybe Joe Ross who has a handwritten copy of Taylor.

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The decline/rally concept from Taylor delivers values that are based on two/three consecutive trading days.They represent swings and in that the concept is sound.The delivered information is a compound of the days and eliminates the cross-currents.I was seeking the eliminated information,my idea can be called anti-taylorish in a way I guess.I catch (some of) these cross-currents and the main trend and organise them into buying and selling and compute their ratio.Now I use this to get the daily change in that and compare this information to daily changed volume.I use this only to check market sentiment what turn the next day might bring and not in regard to any objectives.

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Mitsubishi,

 

Is Fri the 16th a sell day? ... in the book?

Mit, please can we make midday Friday into a short day?

…and what about Dec 21st?... is that going to be a short day?

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    • Have to admit ilike my own posts dont forget to like and subscribe
    • you aint seen nothin yet. Everytrime you pretend you're not a scammer.. What Is Financial Fraud? Financial fraud dates back to the year 300 B.C. when a Greek merchant name Hegestratos took out a large insurance policy known as bottomry. In layman's terms, the merchant borrowed money and agreed to pay it back with interest when the cargo, in this case, corn, was delivered. If the merchant refused to pay back the loan, the lender could claim the cargo and the boat used for its transportation. Hegestratos planned to sink his empty boat, keep the loan, and sell the corn. The plan failed, and he drowned trying to escape his crew and passengers when they caught him in the act. This is the first recorded incident of fraud, but it's safe to assume that the practice has been around since the dawn of commerce. Instead of starting at the very beginning, we will focus on the growth of stock market fraud in the U.S. Key Takeaways William Duer committed an insider trading scandal in the late1700s when he relied on his information edge to keep ahead of the market. Ulysses S. Grant, the Civil War leader, created a financial panic in 1884 when he could not raise funds to save his son's failing business. In the late 1800s, Daniel Drew used techniques known as a corner, poop and scoop, and pump and dump to defraud stock market investors. After the second world war, stock pools composed of the wealthy manipulated large stocks such as Chrysler, RCA, and Standard Oil until the bubble burst in 1929. How Fraud Perpetrators Work There have been many instances of fraud and stock pool scams in the history of the United States, and all of them expose devious schemes based on greed and a desire for power. The first documented fraud occurred in 300 B.C., and it is unlikely that it will ever by stamped out completely because it is driven by greed and the desire for power. The First Insider Trading Scandal In 1792, only a few years after America officially became independent, the nation experienced its first fraud. At this time, American bonds were similar to developing-world issues or junk bonds today—they fluctuated in value with every bit of news about the fortunes of the colonies that issued them. The trick of investing in such a volatile market was to be a step ahead of the news that would push a bond's value up or down. Alexander Hamilton, secretary of the Treasury, began to restructure American finance by replacing outstanding bonds from various colonies with bonds from the new central government. Consequently, big bond investors sought out people who had access to the Treasury to find out which bond issues Hamilton was going to replace. William Duer, a member of President George Washington's inner circle and assistant secretary of the Treasury, was ideally placed to profit from insider information. Duer was privy to all the Treasury's actions and would tip off his friends and trade in his own portfolio before leaking select information to the public that he knew would drive up prices. Then Duer would simply sell for an easy profit. After years of this type of manipulation, even raiding Treasury funds to make larger bets, Duer left his post but kept his inside contacts. He continued to invest his own money as well as that of other investors in both debt issues and the stocks of banks popping up nationwide. With all the European and domestic money chasing bonds, however, there was a speculative glut as issuers rushed to cash in. Rather than stepping back from the overheating market, Duer was counting on his information edge to keep ahead. He piled his ill-gotten gains and that of his investors into the market. Duer also borrowed heavily to further leverage his bond bets. The correction was unpredictable and sharp, leaving Duer hanging onto worthless investments and huge debts. Hamilton had to rescue the market by buying up bonds and acting as a lender of last resort. William Duer ended up in debtor's prison, where he died in 1799. The speculative bond bubble in 1792 and the large amount of bond trading was, interestingly enough, the catalyst for the Buttonwood Agreement, which was the beginnings of the Wall Street investment community. Fraud Wipes Out a President Ulysses S. Grant, a renowned Civil War hero and former president, only wanted to help his son succeed in business, but he ended up creating a financial panic. Grant's son, Buck, had already failed at several businesses but was determined to succeed on Wall Street. Buck formed a partnership with Ferdinand Ward, an unscrupulous man who was only interested in the legitimacy gained from the Grant name. The two opened up a firm called Grant & Ward. Ward immediately sought capital from investors, falsely claiming that the former president had agreed to help them land lucrative government contracts. Ward then used this cash to speculate on the market. Sadly, Ward was not as gifted at speculating as he was at talking, and he lost heavily. Of the capital Ward squandered, $600,000 was tied to the Marine National Bank, and both the bank and Grant & Ward were on the verge of collapse. Ward convinced Buck to ask his father for more money. Grant Sr., already heavily invested in the firm, was unable to come up with enough funds and was forced to ask for a $150,000 personal loan from William Vanderbilt. Ward essentially took the money and ran, leaving the Grants, Marine National Bank, and the investors holding the bag. Marine National Bank collapsed after a bank run, and its fall helped touch off the panic of 1884. Grant Sr. paid off his debt to Vanderbilt with all his personal effects including his uniforms, swords, medals, and other memorabilia from the war. Ward was eventually caught and imprisoned for six years. The Pioneering Daniel Drew The late 1800s saw men such as Jay Gould, James Fisk, Russell Sage, Edward Henry Harriman, and J.P. Morgan turn the fledgling stock market into their personal playground. However, Daniel Drew was a true pioneer of fraud and stock market manipulation. Drew started out in cattle, bringing the term "watered stock" to our vocabulary—watered stock are shares issued at a much greater value than its underlying assets, usually as part of a scheme to defraud investors. Drew later became a financier when the portfolio of loans he provided to fellow cattlemen gave him the capital to start buying large positions in transportation stocks. Drew lived in a time before disclosure, when only the most basic regulations existed. His technique was known as a corner. He would buy up all of a company's stocks, then spread false news about the company to drive the price down. This would encourage traders to sell the stock short. Unlike today, it was possible to sell short many times the actual stock outstanding. When the time came to cover their short positions, traders would find out that the only person holding stock was Daniel Drew and he expected a high premium. Drew's success with corners led to new operations. Drew often traded wholly owned stocks between himself and other manipulators at higher and higher prices. When this action caught the attention of other traders, the group would dump the stock back on the market. The danger of Drew's combined poop and scoop and pump and dump schemes lay in taking the short position. In 1864, Drew was trapped in a corner of his own by Vanderbilt. Drew was trying to short a company that Vanderbilt was simultaneously trying to acquire. Drew shorted heavily, but Vanderbilt had purchased all the shares. Consequently, Drew had to cover his position at a premium paid directly to Vanderbilt. Drew and Vanderbilt battled again in 1866 over a railroad, but this time Drew was much wiser, or at least much more corrupt. As Vanderbilt tried to buy up one of Drew's railroads, Drew printed more and more illegal shares. Vanderbilt followed his previous strategy and used his war chest to buy up the additional shares. This left Drew running from the law for watering stock and left Vanderbilt cash poor. The two combatants came to an uneasy truce: Drew's fellow manipulators, Fisk and Gould, were angered by the truce and conspired to ruin Drew. He died broke in 1879. The Stock Pools Until the 1920s, most market fraud affected only the few Americans who were investing. When it was confined largely to battles between wealthy manipulators, the government felt no need to step in. After World War I, however, average Americans discovered the stock market. To take advantage of the influx of eager new money, manipulators teamed up to create stock pools. Basically, stock pools carried out Daniel Drew-style manipulation on a larger scale. With more investors involved, the profits from manipulating stocks were enough to convince the management of the companies being targeted to participate. The stock pools became very powerful, manipulating even large cap stocks such as Chrysler, RCA, and Standard Oil. When the bubble burst in 1929, both the general public and the government were staggered by the level of corruption that had contributed to the financial catastrophe. Stock pools took the lion's share of the blame, leading to the creation of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Ironically, the first head of the SEC was a speculator and former pool insider, Joseph Kennedy Sr. Fast Fact The first head of the SEC was a speculator and former pool insider, Joseph Kennedy Sr. The stock pools were held largely to blame for the bubble that burst in 1929. The SEC Era With the creation of the SEC, market rules were formalized and stock fraud was defined. Common manipulation practices you fucking nigerian scamming cuntwere outlawed as was the large trade in insider information. Wall Street would no longer be the Wild West where gunslingers like Drew and Vanderbilt met for showdowns. That isn't to say that the pump and dump or insider trading has disappeared. In the SEC era, investors still get taken in by fraud, but legal protection do now exist giving investors some recourse.    
    • Why Russian scammers use TheBat! Let me ask you two questions: First, what would you think if you knew that the person writing you was using a commercial software application typically used by businesses? Second, what would you think about receiving e-mails from a mail client from someone claiming that they were using an Internet Café? If you do not understand either of these two questions, your vulnerability to being scammed is much greater. There are two pieces of background information that will help you understand why understanding the context of these two questions is important: First, managing the large number of scams that are necessary in order to identify a victim is difficult. The solution is to use a commercial software application that has the following characteristics: 1) The Scammer needs an e-mail client that can manage large amounts of e-mail from many different e-mail accounts (using the same e-mail account for communicating with many victims can be problematic since once identified as a Scammer, there are enough Blacklists that the e-mail account will be readily recognizable). 2) The Scammer needs an e-mail client that can sort messages from different e-mail accounts into threads do that the dialogue over time can be managed - this allows "customization" of the communication with the victim to help avoid suspicion (not answering questions or ignoring important information can tip off a victim that something is wrong. 3) The Scammer needs a way to reduce the amount of effort required to communicate with all their victims. Second, as the scale of the scamming activity increases, the Scammer will have a problem using a web e-mail service: 1) E-mail service providers, once aware of a scam, can involve law enforcement agencies and can identify other victims and send out warnings - the Scammer needs to minimize, as much as possible, traces of their scamming activities. 2) Most people would never consider using an e-mail application from an Internet Café (which many Scammers claim to be using) since all of their mail would be left on the computer they were using! If someone is using an e-mail application of any kind (Outlook Express, Outlook, etc.) while stating that they are using an Internet Café warning lights and a siren should be going off. Now that we have identified the characteristics, we can discuss two simple tests that you can do yourself: First, as soon as possible, ask the person that you are corresponding with where they live. With this information, you can inspect the e-mail message header (most e-mail clients will show this information as "message header" or "show original message") - the part that you are looking for looks like this: Received: from 192.168.0.4 (29.214.dialup.mari-el.ru [195.161.214.29]) (authenticated bits=0) by mailc.rambler.ru (8.12.10/8.12.10) with ESMTP id jBHJSM2V039983 for ; Sat, 17 Dec 2005 22:29:30 +0300 (MSK) Date: Sat, 17 Dec 2005 22:26:48 +1100 From: scammer X-Mailer: The Bat! (v2.01) Step one is to find out where the message actually came from - for this example I am using an e-mail where the woman claimed to be using an Internet Café in Cheboksary, Russia. I enter the following URL into my web browser: https://www.ripe.net/perl/whois Next, I enter the IP address from the line that starts with "Received:" which is: 195.161.214.29 And enter it into the "Search for" field on the web page, which returns the following results: person: Nikolay Nikolaev address: Volgatelecom Mari El branch address: Sovetskaya 138 address: 424000 Yoshkar-Ola address: Russia MariEl Republic phone: +7 8362 421549 phone: +7 8362 664435 fax-no: +7 8362 664151 e-mail: nnb@relinfo.ru nic-hdl: NN-RIPE source: RIPE # Filtered I am expecting the address to be Cheboksary and Chuvash Republic - I am not expecting the address to be Yoshkar-Ola and MariEl Republic! Actually, I already had a warning flag in the e-mail header: Received: from 192.168.0.4 (29.214.dialup.mari-el.ru [195.161.214.29]) If the e-mail actually came from Cheboksary, I would expect to see the following: person: Medukov J Alexandr address: 428000 Cheboxary Lenin av 2a phone: +7 8352 662912 e-mail: master@chtts.ru nic-hdl: MJA4-RIPE source: RIPE # Filtered How did I get this information? Simple, find a government or business URL in the city you are interested in and enter it into Ripe. You may need to identify the IP address by using the PING command - this will turn a text URL into an IP address that can be searched on Ripe. I will not go into this more, since this topic wanders off topic a bit. The important thing to note is that the city and republic do not match what was expected - there are a lot of people on this and other web site forums that can assist you if you need more help. The second test is to examine the message header and look for "X-Mailer:" - in our example we find the following: X-Mailer: The Bat! (v2.01) This means that the person sending me the e-mail from a supposed Internet Café is using an e-mail client application. By now, "Red Alert" should be flashing! Why would someone use an e-mail client from an Internet Cafe? Well, most normal people would not - so this is very likely a scam! Now that I have covered how you can test your own e-mails for scamming attempts, I want to return to the technology topic. The Bat! (also known as TB! And TB) - I will use TB! From this point on - is an e-mail client application (a program that runs on a personal computer) that is marketed towards companies and individuals that need to manage large volumes of e-mail. The OECD refers to a category of company as a Small to Medium-Sized Enterprise - an SME for short. Smaller SME's often have very limited budgets and cannot afford specialized Sales and Marketing, Customer Service, and other forms of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) software. Our laboratory supports a group company that helps smaller SME's adapt TB! for their business. I mention this because TB! Has been associated with both Spamming and Scamming - the product is legitimate and is a valuable tool for many businesses; unfortunately, the same features that make TB! effective and efficient for companies, also provide a similar benefit to Scammers. There are two features that Scammers find particularly useful: 1) TB! supports a sophisticated macro programming language and a sophisticated ability to manage templates - predefined text that can be dynamically changed by the macro programming language to respond to e-mails. This allows a technically competent person to create a Scamming system that has a high degree of automation while at the same time allowing the scammer to add custom text in predefined areas within the template. The more people that the Scammer can correspond with, the more likely a victim can be found. 2) TB! is designed to work with multiple e-mail servers simultaneously. This makes it very easy for the Scammer to use numerous "dummy" e-mail accounts for Scamming unsuspecting victims (TB! downloads and erases the e-mails from each e-mail server making it harder for investigators to track what was happening). An e-mail client such as Outlook Express or Outlook Professional and most web e-mail clients such as Yahoo and Hotmail do not offer this level of sophistication. TB! is also very affordable at less than USD $60.00 - well within the means of the typical Scammer. TB! is a product of RIT Labs, which is based in Moldova. This article was produced by the Enterprise Systems Architecture Laboratory (ESAL) located in Stockholm, Sweden. Reuse of this information free of royalty is hereby granted providing that this notice is included in any reproductions. Our footnote. Beware!! recently scammers started using other mass-mailing programs (those are usually used to send spam). In particular: FC'2000, Becky and CommuniGate Pro.@rambler.ru>@email.com>
    • Even if you're in the UK the scammer here can still operate. you see how he's obsessed woith scamming people because he keeps showing you his research. Its what he's always planning- so transparent Check if something might be a scam   5-6 minutes Scams can be difficult to recognise, but there are things you can look out for. You can use our online scams helper to get advice that’s specific to your situation. Online scams helper We'll use your answers to the questions to give you advice on: how to check whether something might be a scam what to do if you've been scammed Recognising a scam It might be a scam if: it seems too good to be true – for example, a holiday that’s much cheaper than you’d expect  someone you don’t know contacts you unexpectedly you suspect you’re not dealing with a real company – for example, if there’s no postal address you’ve been asked to transfer money quickly you've been asked to pay in an unusual way – for example, by iTunes vouchers or through a transfer service like MoneyGram or Western Union you’ve been asked to give away personal information like passwords or PINs you haven't had written confirmation of what's been agreed If you think you’ve paid too much for something Paying more for something than you think it’s worth isn’t the same as being scammed. Usually, a scam will involve theft or fraud. You have other rights if you think you’ve overpaid. If you think you’ve spotted a scam If you’ve given away money or information because of a scam, there are things you should do. Check what to do if you’ve been scammed. If you haven’t been scammed but you’ve seen something you think is a scam, you should report it. Find out how to report a scam. If you’re not sure if something is a scam, contact one of our scams advisers. They'll give you advice about what to do next. Protecting yourself online There are things you can do to protect yourself from being scammed online. Check you’re buying from a real company You can search for a company's details on GOV.UK. This will tell you if they're a registered company or not. If you’re buying something on a site you haven't used before, spend a few minutes checking it – start by finding its terms and conditions. The company’s address should have a street name, not just a post office box. Check to see what people have said about the company. It’s worth looking for reviews on different websites – don’t rely on reviews the company has put on its own website. Also, don’t rely on seeing a padlock in the address bar of your browser - this doesn’t guarantee you’re buying from a real company. Don’t click on or download anything you don’t trust Don’t click on or download anything you don’t trust - for example, if you get an email from a company with a strange email address. Doing this could infect your computer with a virus. Make sure your antivirus software is up to date to give you more protection. Be careful about giving personal information away Some scammers try to get your personal information – for example, the name of your primary school or your National Insurance number. They can use this information to hack your accounts. If you come across sites that ask for this type of information without an obvious reason, check they’re legitimate. Sometimes your log-in details can be made publicly available when a website is hacked. This means that someone could use your details in a scam. Check whether your accounts have been put at risk on Have I Been Pwned. Make your online accounts secure Make sure you have a strong password for your email accounts that you don't use anywhere else. If you’re worried about remembering lots of different passwords, you can use a password manager. Some websites let you add a second step when you log in to your account – this is known as ‘two-factor authentication’. This makes it harder for scammers to access your accounts. Find out how to set up two-factor authentication across services like Gmail, Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Outlook and iTunes on the website Turnon2fa. Pay by debit or credit card- never pay a penny to anal 75 Pay by card to get extra protection if things go wrong. Read our advice on getting your money back after you’ve been scammed. Know how your bank operates Check your bank’s website to see how your bank will and won’t communicate with you. For example, find out what type of security questions they’ll ask if they phone you. Find out about recent scams You can sign up for email alerts on Action Fraud’s website to find out about recent scams in your area. You can also check recent scams on Action Fraud’s website, and find out about common financial scams on the Financial Conduct Authority’s website.  
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