Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

mohsinqureshii

Gold Bullish or Bearish

Recommended Posts

And btw, the ‘supply’ you consistently reference across your posts in this thread is paper supply. You’re almost sure to go HATIN me on this ‘manipulation’ aspect ... but

When was the most recent authentic price discovery in silver?

The last tick -- or -- 30 years ago?

I’m almost positive your perspective is solidly ‘last tick’ and it most likely will stay that way until you get beyond

the USD purchasing power of AU ... “ how prices have dropped...”

...beyond ...

 

mm

Want some more ::razzn:? :)

When you are ready “to redefine several notions” ;) , then ...

30 years ago...

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/thirty-years-of-zero-price-discovery-in-silver-jeff-nielson.html

 

zdo

 

Decent article. I will buy the philosophical perspective, but I wouldn't buy it to be used since it won't a make me a dime; in fact, it will lose me many dimes. It doesn't matter for the here and now what the price of silver could or should be.

 

The PM derivatives markets are HUGE. Oh yes paper supply, but that is only one side of it. There is unprecedented demand. Media driven demand. As long as there is demand, the supply will keep coming. Jean-Batiste Say need not worry.

 

Everyone knows the free world is going to collapse and everyone has purchased paper PMs to hedge because it is the smart thing to do. They don't need physicals; paper will do because they know that when the world (USA) collapses, the Fed will step in again and rescue the day.

 

A busy marketing manager of a local mid size corporation, who busies his day on 13 to 21 very intense conference calls, is in on the coming move in PMs. He has bought paper PM both directly or as a fraction of a well diversified value fund in his 401(k) and IRA account. He is fortunate to have both and asstute money managler and financial revisor to look after his best interests.

 

It may very well be that the money manager made the trade because he got titties and beer from his pal at Morgan the night before, or that this sale gave the financial advisor enough sales to win the trip to Hawaii, but both are offering sound, prudent advice.

 

All the philosophising in the world about where PM prices should or would be will not change the fact that if one is long silver or gold, he is currently on the wrong side of the market. One who is long is betting the side of the sucker.

 

2 dimensional conversations suck.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everyone knows the free world is going to collapse and everyone has purchased paper PMs to hedge because it is the smart thing to do. They don't need physicals; paper will do because they know that when the world (USA) collapses, the Fed will step in again and rescue the day.

 

 

are you being facetious?

 

 

Decent article. I will buy the philosophical perspective, but I wouldn't buy it to be used since it won't a make me a dime; in fact, it will lose me many dimes. It doesn't matter for the here and now what the price of silver could or should be.

 

All the philosophising in the world about where PM prices should or would be will not change the fact that if one is long silver or gold, he is currently on the wrong side of the market. One who is long is betting the side of the sucker.

 

 

Actually - being long physicals (silver and or gold via long term ratio trade) and over-hedging short with paperpm's can make you some very pretty dimes...

2 birds 1.1 stone

 

 

2 dimensional conversations suck.

"you used to call me on my cell phone"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eqwnm-NEd4k

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...

All the philosophising in the world about where PM prices should or would be will not change the fact that if one is long silver or gold, he is currently on the wrong side of the market. One who is long is betting the side of the sucker.

That. Notwithstanding yet another dead cat bounce currently.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Everyone also knows "the trend is your friend".

 

Well that "friend" hasn't definitively changed direction yet.

 

Buy ... if you want to be a hero calling a bottom.

 

You dont have to call a bottom to BUY

It called counter trend trading :):)

LONG @1078

STOP now @1099

TARGET 1120 , then 1125.

 

Danger .. big positive job US report on Friday.

... US $ rising.

Catalyst....CHINA falls. GOLD rises

My view

regards bobc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You dont have to call a bottom to BUY

It called counter trend trading :):)

LONG @1078

STOP now @1099

TARGET 1120 , then 1125.

 

Danger .. big positive job US report on Friday.

... US $ rising.

Catalyst....CHINA falls. GOLD rises

My view

regards bobc

Of course - short term.

 

But that previous poster seems to be making a longer term call.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Of course - short term.

 

 

But that previous poster seems to be making a longer term call.

 

sun,

Actually the poster was just making a call based on ‘economic’ narratives ...

and was doing no better or worse at disclosing planned holding period / time frame than any of the rest of us - including you

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Subtitle = Please take PM’s lower... much lower.

 

 

All the philosophising in the world about where PM prices should or would be will not change the fact that if one is long silver or gold, he is currently on the wrong side of the market. One who is long is betting the side of the sucker. mm
That. Notwithstanding yet another dead cat bounce currently sun .

As ya’ll know by now - :)

I call all that dollar centric, fiat bull

 

Everyone also knows "the trend is your friend".

Well that "friend" hasn't definitively changed direction yet.

Buy ... if you want to be a hero calling a bottom.

Ever be squeezin an already squeezed lemon? There is more..., but...

 

“...a strong, good looking trend... under the surface is becoming the weakest trend...” zdo

 

Bottom line / the point of this post

(...even though ‘charts’ do look weak ie slightly probable it really is on a “dead cat bounce” now )

I personally feel quite comfortable being on the long side of this mess...

 

in light of

> how just a tiny shift in the collective ‘narratives’ could drop this fkn PM bear dead in its tracks...and

 

in light of

> that buying PM’s at any ‘now’ is never really calling a bottom - if you can get beyond USD bull centric...

> and ...beyond ‘valuating’ it...

> beyond... (paraphasing CHSmith) A meltdown of China's phantom wealth triggers a meltdown in global phantom assets

> beyond...

> beyond...

> to ‘price insensitive’

...

Finally - energy , copper, FiaX, etc ... have been such easier / preferable shorts for me over the last n months...

and since early Nov. 15 been having big, fun time “calling tops”mm in indexes (yep thought I remembered an :offtopic: post about it... http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/12054-gold-bullish-bearish-219.html#post200321)

... ie many better places to leverage dollars for returns now than short PM’s.

 

... long PM’s is a good place to be...

 

 

 

 

 

 

“We project in straight lines, when reality is cyclical. “ Harry Dent

Pretty Soon Chancellor Merkel Won't Be So Popular

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Everyone knows the phrase "jobs are a lagging indicator" right? It goes both ways. U.S. Economy is weakening. Buy $GLD

 

Hi David

You will learn after a few years on TL that when you post something unscientific, people will challange you. :helloooo::helloooo:

 

I am NOT trying to knock your post. Just curious.:fight:

Why do you think the US economy is weakening? Unemployment remains at a healthy 5%?

Why buy Gold if the economy IS weakening? Inflation? Safe haven? :anyone:

kind regards

bobc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Subtitle = Please take PM’s lower... much lower.

 

 

 

 

As ya’ll know by now - :)

I call all that dollar centric, fiat bull

 

 

Ever be squeezin an already squeezed lemon? There is more..., but...

 

“...a strong, good looking trend... under the surface is becoming the weakest trend...” zdo

 

Bottom line / the point of this post

(...even though ‘charts’ do look weak ie slightly probable it really is on a “dead cat bounce” now )

I personally feel quite comfortable being on the long side of this mess...

 

in light of

> how just a tiny shift in the collective ‘narratives’ could drop this fkn PM bear dead in its tracks...and

 

in light of

> that buying PM’s at any ‘now’ is never really calling a bottom - if you can get beyond USD bull centric...

> and ...beyond ‘valuating’ it...

> beyond... (paraphasing CHSmith) A meltdown of China's phantom wealth triggers a meltdown in global phantom assets

> beyond...

> beyond...

> to ‘price insensitive’

...

Finally - energy , copper, FiaX, etc ... have been such easier / preferable shorts for me over the last n months...

and since early Nov. 15 been having big, fun time “calling tops”mm in indexes (yep thought I remembered an :offtopic: post about it... http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/12054-gold-bullish-bearish-219.html#post200321)

... ie many better places to leverage dollars for returns now than short PM’s.

 

... long PM’s is a good place to be...

 

 

 

 

 

 

“We project in straight lines, when reality is cyclical. “ Harry Dent

Pretty Soon Chancellor Merkel Won't Be So Popular

Full disclosure, I was short, added 2 times and got all of it stopped out at 1076 the first time it moved back into the 1070's. Nothing more than a cost covering gain. And, I haven't bothered since. Go big or go home.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Going down again yesterday and today ... what a complete and utter surprise.:roll eyes:

 

It was a surprise. :crap:

Chinese central bank released DEC. trade data early, which steadied the yuan and the stock market

This trade data was positive with exports far exceeding imports.

Expect Gold to go back up if this data reverses end Jan :confused:

So we have a month of bearish Gold. No wars expected this month

Bobc

 

PS

I now have two edges to trade Gold.... $ / Gold negative correlation

.....China trade / Gold negative correlation :):)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cloud is Ichimoku., it gives an idea of support and resistance. I do not have the complete indicator showing, there is quite a bit to it.

 

This chart is not my trading chart, I use a similar chart for each instrument I am interested in as a way of scanning for different things.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It was a surprise. :crap:

Chinese central bank released DEC. trade data early, which steadied the yuan and the stock market

This trade data was positive with exports far exceeding imports.

Expect Gold to go back up if this data reverses end Jan :confused:

So we have a month of bearish Gold. No wars expected this month

Bobc

 

PS

I now have two edges to trade Gold.... $ / Gold negative correlation

.....China trade / Gold negative correlation :):)

 

Hey Bob,

 

What about this?

 

Michael

USDZAR.thumb.png.2bcb97c6e924965bf961646a9599c626.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

re: this upswing (aka “dead cat bounce”)

been wrong before but I’m thinking it may take 2-3 weeks to put in the top on this upswing...

Anyways, that’s how I’m planning any initiating short entries to put heavy hedge back on...

Meanwhile, reactive/responsive short entries to put heavy hedge back on stops are riding below on a climbing curved line*

 

 

...

 

bad link changing the subject to AU? or BtC? considerations

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/the-rand-corporation-report-national-security-implications-of-virtual-currency-1452528204

 

 

 

 

 

 

*sorry dbp, but for trading I can fathom ‘drawing’ a straight line even less now than ever... straight lines are wetware regressions on the data of ragged reality

... precariously close - nope, over the line - to fitting into any definition of an indicator

... :confused: yet indicators are something you've spent a lot of time and energy fighting over the years :confused:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hey Bob,

 

What about this?

 

Michael

 

Hi Michael

Not quite sure why you posted the $ Rand chart?

I use it for trading marginal gold mines, not so much Gold. A marginal mine is one producing at a cost higher than the price of the commodity.

Its a fantastic correlation. A small increase in the price of Gold , and a weakening in the Rand, leads to a BIG move in a marginal Gold stock. With low risk

The problem is the Rand is heavely traded in Asia, (carry trade) which closes before South Africa opens..

So a favourable move will lead to a GAP opening,which is often the move for the day.See attached chart of Harmony Gold .... a terrrible stock, but it more than doubled since Dec. on a small rise in the Gold price. I think its listed on New York as an ADR.

Worth a look :missy:

Google" SA shares listed on NYSE" for other possibilities

kind regards

bobc

Harmony.png.8b447853eb03e10fca09849369e39c30.png

Edited by bobcollett

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • $PTN Palatin Technologies stock back to 1.74 support area, https://stockconsultant.com/?PTN
    • $CHWY Chewy stock breakdown watch, https://stockconsultant.com/?CHWY
    • $COF Capital One stock right at the top of the range, breakout watch, https://stockconsultant.com/?COF
    • Date: 25th April 2024. Investors Monitor a Potential Japanese Intervention, and upcoming Tech Earnings. Meta stocks top earnings expectations, but revenue guidance for the next 6 months triggers significant selloff. Meta stocks decline 15.00% and the Magnificent Seven also trade lower. Japanese Authorities are on watch and most market experts predict the Japanese Federal Government will intervene once again. The Japanese Yen is the day’s worst performing currency while the Australian Dollar continues to top the charts. The US Dollar trades 0.10% lower, but this afternoon’s performance is likely to be dependent on the US GDP. USA100 – Meta Stocks Fall 15% On the Next 6-Months Guidance The NASDAQ has declined 1.51% over the past 24 hours, unable to maintain momentum from Monday and Tuesday. Technical analysts advise the decline is partially simply a break in the bullish momentum and the asset continues to follow a bullish correction pattern. However, if the decline continues throughout the day, the retracement scenario becomes a lesser possibility. In terms of indications and technical analysis, most oscillators, and momentum-based signals point to a downward price movement. The USA100 trades below the 75-Bar EMA, below the VWAP and the RSI hovers above 40.00. All these factors point towards a bearish trend. The bearish signals are also likely to strengthen if the price declines below $17,295.11. The stock which is experiencing considerably large volatility is Meta which has fallen more than 15.00%. The past quarter’s earnings beat expectations and according to economists, remain stable and strong. Earnings Per Share beat expectations by 8.10% and revenue was as expected. However, company expenses significantly rose in the past quarter and the guidance for the second half of the year is lower than previous expectations. These two factors have caused investors to consider selling their shares and cashing in their profits. Meta’s decline is one of the main causes for the USA100’s bearish trend. CFRA Senior Analyst, Angelo Zino, advises the selloff may be a slight over reaction based on earnings data. If Meta stocks rise again, investors can start to evaluate a possible upward correction. However, a concern for investors is that more and more companies are indicating caution for the second half of the year. The price movements will largely now depend on Microsoft and Alphabet earnings tonight after market close. Microsoft is the most influential stock for the NASDAQ and Alphabet is the third. The two make up 14.25% of the overall index. If the two companies also witness their stocks decline after the earnings reports, the USA100 may struggle to gain upward momentum. EURJPY – Will Japan Intervene Again? In the currency market, the Japanese Yen remains within the spotlight as investors believe the Japanese Federal Government is likely to again intervene. The Federal Government has previously intervened in the past 12 months which caused a sharp rise in the Yen before again declining. The government opted for this option in an attempt to hinder a further decline. Volatility within the Japanese Yen will also depend on today’s US GDP reading and tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index. However, investors will more importantly pay close attention to the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. Investors will be keen to see if the central bank believes it is appropriate to again hike in 2024 as well as comment regarding inflation and the economy. In terms of technical analysis, breakout levels can be considered as areas where the exchange rate may retrace or correct. Breakout levels can be seen at 166.656 and 166.333. However, the only indicators pointing to a decline are the RSI and similar oscillators which advise the price is at risk of being “overbought”. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • $ALVR AlloVir stock bottom breakout watch, huge upside gap, https://stockconsultant.com/?ALVR
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.