Gold Bullish or Bearish

[kuokam 10]

We just touched a great low last week. My plan is to scalp a couple ticks along the way, with a bullish bias into this week.

 

 

I suppose a bounce continuing is in the cards for the next day or two or longer but I'm waiting for the downtrend to resume before entering again.

Edited February 24, 2013 by kuokam

[SIUYA 11]

I dont have a view on gold.......but a friend emailed this through to me on his thoughts....FWIW

 

"something to think about re gold.

 

At the end of every quarter large US funds (those with greater than 100mil under management) have to file at 13F form with the SEC. The funds have 45 days after the end of the quarter to file the 13F. This disclosure from each fund discloses their listed US assets.

 

John Paulson is the world's biggest gold bull. He has over $3.5 billion in the Gold etf (GLD). It constitutes about 20% of his fund holdings. As of the 31st of Dec his holding has not dropped when compared to previous quarters. If gold sees any further weakness and his hand is forced ---- it could get very very messy.

 

Any broad US$ strength could see this happen................"

[SunTrader 10]

Gold Miners Come Clean on Costs After Lost 6 Years: Commodities

 

Gold Miners Come Clean on Costs After Lost 6 Years: Commodities - Bloomberg

 

"Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) and Goldcorp Inc. (G), the two biggest producers by market value, have begun reporting “all-in sustaining costs” for the first time. The new measure averaged $941 an ounce between the two companies in the fourth quarter. That’s 50 percent higher than the $626 average so-called cash cost they disclosed in the preceding three months."

[bobcollett 10]

Sold at 1608 for 30 point profit.

And I am sure I have left some money on the table.

But tomorrow we have a Neptune Venus conjunction which is bad news for Gold and Silver..

So tomorrow could be the high with a big drop ahead into early March..

All the bears... get ready.

regards

bobc

[SIUYA 11]

Gold Miners Come Clean on Costs After Lost 6 Years: Commodities

 

Gold Miners Come Clean on Costs After Lost 6 Years: Commodities - Bloomberg

 

"Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) and Goldcorp Inc. (G), the two biggest producers by market value, have begun reporting “all-in sustaining costs” for the first time. The new measure averaged $941 an ounce between the two companies in the fourth quarter. That’s 50 percent higher than the $626 average so-called cash cost they disclosed in the preceding three months."

 

Yep - I have been sucked into 'buy the miner' to replicate the metal before.....never trust an accountant - its all smoke and mirrors. :haha: - miners, prospectors and company directors are all above board....:doh:

 

So does this mean - gold is actually more expensive to mine and hence shortages of supply are likely to occur, OR the other numbers from the gold miners about reserves and production cant be believed, OR if you have a view on something, a texas hedge aint the best thing to use.

 

...................

Did you see the other article about Jamie Dimon saying Banks have too much capital

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/dimon-says-banks-to-have-more-capital-than-they-know-how-to-use.html

 

......somehow in my warped mind i see a lot of this as being related.

Edited February 27, 2013 by SIUYA

[bobcollett 10]

Gold Miners Come Clean on Costs After Lost 6 Years: Commodities

 

Gold Miners Come Clean on Costs After Lost 6 Years: Commodities - Bloomberg

 

"Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) and Goldcorp Inc. (G), the two biggest producers by market value, have begun reporting “all-in sustaining costs” for the first time. The new measure averaged $941 an ounce between the two companies in the fourth quarter. That’s 50 percent higher than the $626 average so-called cash cost they disclosed in the preceding three months."

 

Hi SunTrader,

I have always wondered how Barrick, operating in a First world country can have lower costs than South Africa,a third world country.

Goldfield and Anglogold have always reported FULL costs and they have been severely discounted (.But their PEs are still too high.)

I think Barrick is heading for a BIG fall.

regards

bobc

[SunTrader 10]

Yep - I have been sucked into 'buy the miner' to replicate the metal before.....never trust an accountant - its all smoke and mirrors. :haha:

.....

Agree and feel the same (or more so) can be said about the bankers.

 

I read the news but trade off the chart.

[SunTrader 10]

Hi SunTrader,

I have always wondered how Barrick, operating in a First world country can have lower costs than South Africa,a third world country.

Goldfield and Anglogold have always reported FULL costs and they have been severely discounted (.But their PEs are still too high.)

I think Barrick is heading for a BIG fall.

regards

bobc

Could be. I don't follow the miners that closely to have an opinion either way.

[Ammeo 10]

Speaking only technically- A bounce off the 1530-1550 support zone could be expected on the weekly chart...i'll wait a week more and see if the trends goes bullish at this suppport- then will take a 3-5 weeks long position in it...Gold is precious anyway afterall..:cheers::cheers:

[SunTrader 10]

Speaking only technically- A bounce off the 1530-1550 support zone could be expected on the weekly chart...

Careful. The more price visits a zone the more likely, at some point, that zone will no longer hold.

 

.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Gold, however, has been in a trading range since September, and the limits of a trading range can hold for quite some time.

 

You should know by Monday or Tuesday. Don't know if I'd wait for 50.

[SunTrader 10]

Gold, however, has been in a trading range since September, ....

 

Oct -2.94%

Nov -0.28%

Dec -2.32%

Jan -0.73%

Feb -5.09%

 

It is clear to me, at least, once again that the range it has been trading in is not a trading range.

[DbPhoenix 42]

-

Depends on how one defines "trading range":

 

[SunTrader 10]

-

Depends on how one defines "trading range":

It depends on how one crop a chart to show their bias.

 

You previously mentioned from high last Sept.

 

This is what it looks like to me, Lower highs, lower lows, lower highs - well you get the picture by now. I hope so anyway:

[autotrader1 10]

XAU/USD DAILY as of Friday, 01 March, 2013

Wave 4 of moderate (13%) amplitude has crossed a threshold where the probability of a failure is higher. This wave could turn into an impulse wave 1 of opposite trend.

The present wave patterns are:

fast amplitude (8%): bearish wave 1

moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 4

Gold / US Dollar is long term Bearish as the 144 days moving average of 1,669.25 is decreasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 35.09 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 23.05 in the oversold territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at -44.63, in negative territory; this is a bearish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 81.09. This value is in the overbought territory.

[bobcollett 10]

XAU/USD DAILY as of Friday, 01 March, 2013

Wave 4 of moderate (13%) amplitude has crossed a threshold where the probability of a failure is higher. This wave could turn into an impulse wave 1 of opposite trend.

The present wave patterns are:

fast amplitude (8%): bearish wave 1

moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 4

Gold / US Dollar is long term Bearish as the 144 days moving average of 1,669.25 is decreasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 35.09 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 23.05 in the oversold territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at -44.63, in negative territory; this is a bearish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 81.09. This value is in the overbought territory.

 

Well autotrader

Thats quite a mouthfull.

I think EW is fantastic,but I struggle to find the waves before the event.

I think you can invest , but you can only TRADE the 5th wave with some certainity

regards

bobc

[DbPhoenix 42]

It depends on how one crop a chart to show their bias.

 

You previously mentioned from high last Sept.

 

This is what it looks like to me, Lower highs, lower lows, lower highs - well you get the picture by now. I hope so anyway:

 

No bias. An instrument is either trending or ranging. Gold stopped trending in Sep '11. The chart I posted is of that period. You may be referring to some other post when you refer to "last" Sept. Since then it has been bouncing between 1800 and 1535+/-. Each trip from top to bottom within the range may be considered a trend, but it is not the same sort of trend that price is in once it departs from the range, such as the trend beginning in July '11.

[SunTrader 10]

No bias. An instrument is either trending or ranging..

 

Your words, not mine:

 

"Gold, however, has been in a trading range since September."

 

But by your definition any market that is not trading at an alltime high is within its previous range and therefore rangebound.

 

And yet again another lower low today inside your trading range.

 

Did you ever think others look at other timeframes besides .... forever.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Your words, not mine:

 

"Gold, however, has been in a trading range since September."

 

But by your definition any market that is not trading at an alltime high is within its previous range and therefore rangebound.

 

And yet again another lower low today inside your trading range.

 

Did you ever think others look at other timeframes besides .... forever.

 

But I did not say "last" September. My mistake. I apologize.

 

And, no, something that isn't an an all-time high isn't necessarily ranging. It can reverse and begin a downtrend. Look at '00-'02. But if price bounces up and down repeatedly within a range, then it's range-bound, i.e., it's bound by the upper and lower limit of the range. Gold has been bouncing up and down in a range for nearly two years.

 

As for a lower low today, that depends on what it is lower than. It has yet to reach the last swing low on the daily chart.

 

As to whether or not others look at different intervals and timeframes, of course. But it pays to know where and when price is most likely to reverse. Some people like to be in and out, in and out. I'd rather short at resistance or buy at support and just hold it.

[Guest Muir]

On a 2 year chart, gold definitely has been in a trading range, each intermediate swing very tradable.

For 6 months SPX/GC or whatever, $INDU/GDL (or if you use stockcharts, I believe it's it's a colon, e.g. $DOW:GOLD) has been on a beautiful unbroken up trendline.

Last 3 days have been frustrating, as GLD (or GC or MGC) has shown just unbelievable weakness, just as it looked like it could break the trendline on the intermarket charts.

If gold can not rally now with the sequester upon us....

 

GC has been tradable, it's the timeframe used, so yes, anyone that looks at a 2 year chart will see a trading range, pull out further and you can see when the uptrend was broken from 09, pull in and I can see 3 or 4 trends broken hinges...

 

But, yes, it is close the lower range of the 2 year trading range, but seems anemic.

[SunTrader 10]

But I did not say "last" September. My mistake. I apologize.

 

And, no, something that isn't an an all-time high isn't ......

A lower low is just that.

 

If we can't agree on that basic point.... time to move on.

[DbPhoenix 42]

A lower low is just that.

 

If we can't agree on that basic point.... time to move on.

 

Depends on what it's lower than. If lower than the previous day, yes, though that's not necessarily important. If it bounces off support, go long. If it doesn't, keep your short, assuming you went short in October, or at least November.

[SunTrader 10]

Depends on what it's lower than. If lower than the previous day, yes, though that's not necessarily important. If it bounces off support, go long. If it doesn't, keep your short, assuming you went short in October, or at least November.

I don't look at everything in the markets through a wyckoff prism.

 

On a daily basis or higher - a lower low (and/or lower high) is important by itself. But what is even more important are lower lowS (and lower highS) and if you like LL/LH pivots since the alltime highs.

 

This I only mention in regards to the trend - not whether or not to go long or short.

 

There are other things (time, price, pattern) I look to to determine trend and also again whether or not and where to enter a trade.

[tupapa 10]

I don't look at everything in the markets through a wyckoff prism.

 

On a daily basis or higher - a lower low (and/or lower high) is important by itself. But what is even more important are lower lowS (and lower highS) and if you like LL/LH pivots since the alltime highs.

 

This I only mention in regards to the trend - not whether or not to go long or short.

 

There are other things (time, price, pattern) I look to to determine trend and also again whether or not and where to enter a trade.

 

 

Don't you think gold could be forming a HL at point 2, relative to the low at point 1?

 

[Gringo 10]

Don't you think gold could be forming a HL at point 2, relative to the low at point 1?

 

 

Yes, it's possible. We'll only know in hindsight. The real issue is what, where, when and if are you going to do something about it.

 

Gringo