Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

pipbanker

Why Trading Moving Averages Fail? Nr. 1 Loser Indicator

Recommended Posts

Ok

I know a lot of you are using the most popular indicator in the Market (Moving Average). What you do not realize is that is that MA is the #1 loser in the market. Don't get me wrong, all indicators are losers, but MA is the leader.

 

Here is the bottom line.

Indicators are not really the problem. It is the instruction that comes with them and people that use them is the problem.

 

Let's take for example MA.

This is by far the most abused indicator in the world. It has lost so much money it should have been illegal to use it. Incidentally, no one seems to realize that.

Most trading system in the market follows the wisdom of the MA crossing strategy. 90% of trading system has some type of MA crossing scheme in it. Most indicators (MACD, Stoch, ADX, CCI) are build around that concept. That is why all indicators or EA (automated trading system) in general are garbage. Yes, I said it. They are all garbage.

 

What is the reason for MA cross failure? When looking at MA or any indicators based on MA one needs to understand that price does not care where your moving average is in relation to current price. Market does not care where moving average is pointing or if your indicator is overbought or oversold. MA cross happens too late for an entry and usually when you see the cross and ready to put on a trade the price will go the opposite direction. Tadah! Not again. And you will wander why? You did follow your trading plan as you were taught but there was another loss...Frustration? No, it is more than that...

 

Having said all that, where do a wanna forex trader should turn for help? The truth is there no one that can help you because the answer would be too simple for you to accept and follow. No one can help you except for yourself.

 

For example:

I trade against everything that I have learned in forex trading classes. I trade against everything the books, the technical gurus, the TV, the market analysis, the news, even the TREND. Yes, I trade against the trend. So when I talk about trading most traders will stay away from what I am saying because it makes no sense to them. Others will hate me for making money trading against all the rules that market "gurus" preach.

 

I am going to share what I do and get some stones and mud thrown at me in the process.

It should be fun to watch and read the comments I will be getting. So sit back and relax as I am going to unleash my sac of garbage.

 

Here is how I trade.

I only Buy Low and Sell High using my naked eye and simple support and resistance levels. I DO NOT USE MA CROSSING. IT IS DUMB TO USE MA CROSSING.

 

Bellow is a summary of what I do to prepare for a trade:

(and yes, I do trade without indicators )

 

1. I don't do any analysis on weekends or days before. When I open my chart I look at a Daily Time Frame. I am not too concern about all these technical analysis. They are too confusing and too boring for me to be wasting my time on. As you may already know, most of your trades are always ending up in the wrong side. So the forex market itself does not follow technical analysis when it comes to taking my money so why should I?

2. I determine the intermediate term trend with the H4 and H1 to see where the price is in relation to past price action. This is easy to do with your naked eye. No need for expensive indicator. If you are addicted to indicators then do like the others are doing. Drop a 200 EMA on your charts and say to yourself if the price is above the 200 EMA, the trend is up and if the price is below it the trend is down.

3. I look at where the price is located in relation the highest point in the chart and the lowest point. Or for new guy, this means the highest the price has been before returning back down and the lowest the price has been before returning back up. You can do all this with your naked eye.

4. I am waiting for the price to reach my levels to take the trade.

5. I do use 5M to spot and trade true support and true resistance.

6. I only risk less than 2% of my account on any trade.

7. I follow my stop loss rules and let life goes on.

 

And yes, sometimes I do trade even without all this stuff described above. Just be there in the right time and with right order. Sometimes I am lucky to reach my day target in first 5-10 minutes of session opening. This does not happen everyday, but this happens pretty often to mention it. With no indicators at all.

 

So if you want to learn trading you have to get rid off anything that clutters your chart.

 

Now go ahead and crucify me. I might enjoy some of your comments.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep you're right, you'll be crucified for just being another vendor trying to get people and their credit cards excited. If you made money trading, you wouldn't be offering a trading room.

 

Here are the ONLY three ways to consistently make money in the markets:

 

1) Be at the top of a company during an IPO and be granted thousands of shares

2) Privileged inside information that catches a company or general market(of your choosing) off guard

3) Have enough money to continually double down forever at increasing quantities until the market turns in your direction and then stagger your exits. Oh wait, that's our good friend Golden Slacks receiving infinite money at .25%

 

Kurtosis and statistics don't even work anymore. HFT robots battling each other day after day has made all the markets truly random.

 

Edit: I forgot a fourth method that works in the markets. Sell a trading room or something of the like for $200-$500 per month and hook people for 2-3 months before they move on. You can probably make a comfortable living of $50k-$100k per year doing this.

Edited by ValueAreaTrader

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yep you're right, you'll be crucified for just being another vendor trying to get people and their credit cards excited. If you made money trading, you wouldn't be offering a trading room.

 

Here are the ONLY three ways to consistently make money in the markets:

 

1) Be at the top of a company during an IPO and be granted thousands of shares

2) Privileged inside information that catches a company or general market(of your choosing) off guard

3) Have enough money to continually double down forever at increasing quantities until the market turns in your direction and then stagger your exits. Oh wait, that's our good friend Golden Slacks receiving infinite money at .25%

 

Kurtosis and statistics don't even work anymore. HFT robots battling each other day after day has made all the markets truly random.

 

Edit: I forgot a fourth method that works in the markets. Sell a trading room or something of the like for $200-$500 per month and hook people for 2-3 months before they move on. You can probably make a comfortable living of $50k-$100k per year doing this.

 

Ok, I see you are a little upset with people who are able to make money trading, but this is not your fault. Let me comment on few things you said.

1.There is no IPO in forex and futures, probably you know that, but I need to say that for any newbies who could be reading this post.

2. Yes, you can make money without having insiders in forex and futures. It would be hard to imagine that many people have access let's say to numbers prior to NFP.

3. Not all traders are willing to join the market without proper education. It might sound unbelievable to you but there are traders who want to be educated properly. I am not talking about education quality here, cause that would take us in to long debate.People can make their choice if they want to learn or not. We only give the opportunity to learn profitable trading, please don't get so angry about it. I don't think you get angry at people who teach English or other stuff.

4. Turning a struggling trader into a profitable one is not about watching videos and reading manuals. If you give me a valid reason why I should spend my personal time educating a trader for free then I will enroll you at no cost. You will like to be on the other side.

There are many things to be discussed on this matter, but I will stop here.

Yes, people can join our trading room for free.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since we have people happy with MAs, I think it would be interesting to know how many people are trading with MAs and if they are happy about performance.

Would you agree that having a poll would be the right thing here?

 

I've created a poll here

Take a look at this screen to see where exactly the poll is. http://screencast.com/t/HWzDs4dLlon

HWzDs4dLlon

 

2 weeks to vote should be enough to get some valid info. I will post results in 2 weeks here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No two traders that I know trade exactly alike. Whatever works for you is the best way to trade imho. And I've been trading for over 20 yrs. The markets change their MO almost daily so there is no one best method or indicator. Price is the only indicator of value. If you are new to trading you need to do some reading and take some courses from the recognized leaders in trading education. Then you can truly learn to trade by piecing together a strategy and methodology that works for you. Since we all learn at different speeds and trading is so psychologically influenced by our individual personalities, some will learn quickly. Some will take years to learn (I did) and some will never learn and eventually give up when they run out of expendable funds.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

trading with MA is like flying an airplane...

 

those who can fly looks like god to those who can't.

 

those who can't fly but fly anyway will have a predictable future

 

there are those who can't fly, believes nobody should either

 

there are those who can't fly, have other means of transportation, therefore not flying is not a big deal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
trading with MA is like flying an airplane...

 

those who can fly looks like god to those who can't.

 

those who can't fly but fly anyway will have a predictable future

 

there are those who can't fly, believes nobody should either

 

there are those who can't fly, have other means of transportation, therefore not flying is not a big deal

 

I just got a warm feeling inside Tams..

 

Both optimists and pessimists contribute to the society. The optimist invents the aeroplane, the pessimist the parachute.

 

— George Bernard Shaw

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ha.... I wish I had an airplane, Sometimes I think I'm just driving a tractor or golfcart or something! ;)

 

For other newbies, beware that MA is just univariet time series analysis. The next tick can't be predicted. The market is a complex system that can't be predicted based on past action. So time series analysis is a method that doesn't fit the model.

 

MA are only useful if others make decisions based on them. So a system using MA might work, but only until it stops working...

 

Look instead for ways to understand other traders, buyers and sellers, supply and demand. The price history is their footprints. Are they running ahead or are they trapped?

 

Good luck to everyone in 2012!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ok

 

1. I don't do any analysis on weekends or days before. When I open my chart I look at a Daily Time Frame. I am not too concern about all these technical analysis. They are too confusing and too boring for me to be wasting my time on. As you may already know, most of your trades are always ending up in the wrong side.

 

:wtf:Gee, I wish someone had told me last year that using moving average strategies were losers. I guess making 4.3 % month over month (60% per year) for the last 16 months using a moving average strategy is just a total loss.

 

With your above quote I can see why you will always lose money in the long run and badmouth successful strategies. Using technical analysis is too confusing and too boring??? What I am hearing is you don't want to put the effort into making your strategy a winner. Sorry guy, but I think I would rather study hard, analyze the data and come to my own conclusions without being distracted by someone who can't be bothered with confusing and boring technical analysis.

 

I know I sound harsh but I have heard this too many times in too many forums and yet with perseverance, research, copious back and forward testing, I am able to tweak the moving averages to give me a profit on 87% of my trades.

 

I will grant you one thing, too many indicators will make trading more difficult and confusing, the same as trying to watch too many currency pairs.

 

Good luck with your trading. I think I will stick with mine. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
One of the best and certainly most consistent traders I know successfully uses Moving Averages coupled with cycles.

 

You should reconsider.

 

"Cycles"? If you dont mind expanding on this. Never heard of cycles before

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have heard and read many stories of successful traders using MA on various places on the net but never seen it with my own naked eyes, however from the last years experience in trading I can say they do work not that I use them but they seem to strong sign with some delay not good for agressive traders but better for conservative. I use 30, 50, and 100 MA's looking for bounces between the 30, 50 I understand market movers use these MA's.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We are getting interesting results on the vote, but it is still open.

If you have an opinion on this subject put your vote in at http://www.pipbanker.com

The poll is in the right top corner. We will put the total count here after we close the poll.

 

And by the way, Friday 13th had fantastic moves, congrats too everyone who was able to catch that drop in markets.

good weekend to everyone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Moving Averages work all the time anyone who says they dont they dont know what a chart is or what one looks like.

 

Backtest it last few months and you will see its best to trade after a multiple cross when there is angle and seperation and price always bursts in that direction.

 

the 20, 50 and 200 MA are used by most traders.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Moving Averages work all the time anyone who says they dont they dont know what a chart is or what one looks like.

 

Backtest it last few months and you will see its best to trade after a multiple cross when there is angle and seperation and price always bursts in that direction.

 

the 20, 50 and 200 MA are used by most traders.

 

Hey mate,

 

in back testing they work fine, dont they?

But there is a problem, my broker does not let me trade in the middle of the chart. And that's where all problems begin. MA fail in forward testing or in real trading. Otherwise all those traders out there would be rich by just trading MA cross. But we know what the truth is... they are not making money.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Moving Averages work all the time anyone who says they dont they dont know what a chart is or what one looks like.

 

Backtest it last few months and you will see its best to trade after a multiple cross when there is angle and seperation and price always bursts in that direction.

 

the 20, 50 and 200 MA are used by most traders.

 

could u explain further...Have you used Moving Averages in live trading and what are your results...

please also tell us what time frame do you use ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
We are getting interesting results on the vote, but it is still open.

If you have an opinion on this subject put your vote in at Forex Learn Profitable Trading Without Indicators | A Unique Forex Trading Course | Forex Trading Strategies | High frequency trading | Daytrading for dummies | Day Trading | Scalping | Best Forex Secrets

The poll is in the right top corner. We will put the total count here after we close the poll.

 

And by the way, Friday 13th had fantastic moves, congrats too everyone who was able to catch that drop in markets.

good weekend to everyone

 

I have been using the following MA Crossover formula with tremendous success:

 

If average(vendorpost,3) crosses over average(tolerancelevel,8) then exit thread at market;

 

I think perhaps it works so well because the MA lengths are both fib numbers - what do you think PipBanker?

 

Bluehorseshoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
We are getting interesting results on the vote,

but it is still open.

If you have an opinion on this subject put your vote in.

We will put the total count here after we close the poll.

... and ... ?

 

I assume the poll is still open, since we have not had the result posted :shocked:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know a lot of you are using the most popular indicator in the Market (Moving Average). What you do not realize is that is that MA is the #1 loser in the market. Don't get me wrong, all indicators are losers, but MA is the leader.

 

Here is the bottom line.

Indicators are not really the problem. It is the instruction that comes with them and people that use them is the problem.

 

Let's take for example MA.

This is by far the most abused indicator in the world. It has lost so much money it should have been illegal to use it. Incidentally, no one seems to realize that.

Most trading system in the market follows the wisdom of the MA crossing strategy. 90% of trading system has some type of MA crossing scheme in it. Most indicators (MACD, Stoch, ADX, CCI) are build around that concept. That is why all indicators or EA (automated trading system) in general are garbage. Yes, I said it. They are all garbage.

 

What is the reason for MA cross failure? When looking at MA or any indicators based on MA one needs to understand that price does not care where your moving average is in relation to current price. Market does not care where moving average is pointing or if your indicator is overbought or oversold. MA cross happens too late for an entry and usually when you see the cross and ready to put on a trade the price will go the opposite direction. Tadah! Not again. And you will wander why? You did follow your trading plan as you were taught but there was another loss...Frustration? No, it is more than that...

 

Having said all that, where do a wanna forex trader should turn for help? The truth is there no one that can help you because the answer would be too simple for you to accept and follow. No one can help you except for yourself.

 

For example:

I trade against everything that I have learned in forex trading classes. I trade against everything the books, the technical gurus, the TV, the market analysis, the news, even the TREND. Yes, I trade against the trend. So when I talk about trading most traders will stay away from what I am saying because it makes no sense to them. Others will hate me for making money trading against all the rules that market "gurus" preach.

 

I am going to share what I do and get some stones and mud thrown at me in the process.

It should be fun to watch and read the comments I will be getting. So sit back and relax as I am going to unleash my sac of garbage.

 

Here is how I trade.

I only Buy Low and Sell High using my naked eye and simple support and resistance levels. I DO NOT USE MA CROSSING. IT IS DUMB TO USE MA CROSSING.

 

Bellow is a summary of what I do to prepare for a trade:

(and yes, I do trade without indicators )

 

1. I don't do any analysis on weekends or days before. When I open my chart I look at a Daily Time Frame. I am not too concern about all these technical analysis. They are too confusing and too boring for me to be wasting my time on. As you may already know, most of your trades are always ending up in the wrong side. So the forex market itself does not follow technical analysis when it comes to taking my money so why should I?

2. I determine the intermediate term trend with the H4 and H1 to see where the price is in relation to past price action. This is easy to do with your naked eye. No need for expensive indicator. If you are addicted to indicators then do like the others are doing. Drop a 200 EMA on your charts and say to yourself if the price is above the 200 EMA, the trend is up and if the price is below it the trend is down.

3. I look at where the price is located in relation the highest point in the chart and the lowest point. Or for new guy, this means the highest the price has been before returning back down and the lowest the price has been before returning back up. You can do all this with your naked eye.

4. I am waiting for the price to reach my levels to take the trade.

5. I do use 5M to spot and trade true support and true resistance.

6. I only risk less than 2% of my account on any trade.

7. I follow my stop loss rules and let life goes on.

 

And yes, sometimes I do trade even without all this stuff described above. Just be there in the right time and with right order. Sometimes I am lucky to reach my day target in first 5-10 minutes of session opening. This does not happen everyday, but this happens pretty often to mention it. With no indicators at all.

 

So if you want to learn trading you have to get rid off anything that clutters your

 

Beachmaster

 

First post. You do what works for you. To win in this game you must have a plan. To take money from brokers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There are number of traders using indicators and claiming that they are using profitable indicators as well. So, it is really new for me to know that all indicators are losers, but MA is the leader.

 

Not only MA is the leader but MA is enough (alongwith S/R levels) ...RSI,Stochastics or MACD may be the other options to put onto charts but imo they are not needed either as they are some form of moving averages themselves...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • $AIZ Assurant stock nice breakout, from Stocks To Watch , see https://stockconsultant.com/?AIZ  
    • Date: 28th March 2024. The US Dollar Strengthens As Economists Believe The ECB Will Struggle To “Hold”. Early this morning, the Fed Governor advised “there is no rush to cut rates” and “the data within the upcoming months” will be vital. The US Dollar Index rises to a 1-month high. The value of the USD will largely be based on today’s data on economic growth, consumer sentiment and pending home sales. Dollar and index traders are closely monitoring tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index which analysts expect will read 0.3%. A higher inflation reading can potentially pressure stocks and support the Dollar. Strong declines in NVIDIA and Netflix stocks pressured the NASDAQ on Wednesday. Though, buyers entered late in the session to boost the overall price. EURUSD The latest comments from members of the Federal Reserve are supporting the US Dollar. The forward guidance between members of the Federal Reserve is mainly not aligned. The Chairman advises the Fed does not need much more proof for the regulator to feel comfortable reducing rates. Whereas the Fed Governor, Mr Waller, advises there is no rush, and he wants to see a few months of data before determining the next move. Therefore, the upcoming inflation and employment data will remain vital and could even push back rate hikes further. According to economists, the Federal Reserve will cut the interest rate on 3 occasions this year, but the timing of the first cut is less certain and may change depending on upcoming data. A positive factor for traders is that EURUSD exchange is not witnessing conflicting currencies. The US Dollar is trading 0.12% higher while the Euro is declining against most currencies. The Euro is trading 0.06% lower against the Pound and the Canadian Dollar and 0.16% lower against the Japanese Yen. Yesterday, the head of the Bank of Italy, Mr Cipollone, said that the authorities were confident that inflation would return to the target of 2.0% by mid–2025. He also supports the lower of interest rate and will use this as a basis for adjusting monetary policy. The Euro is generally under pressure as investors believe the European Central Bank will struggle to avoid cuts if the Fed decide to delay their adjustments. The US Dollar will be influenced by four major economic data releases. The US Final GDP, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales and Consumer Sentiment Index. If these read higher than expectations with the weekly unemployment claims dropping, the US Dollar is likely to witness further support. However, investors should note the main release will be tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index. Traders are expecting no major news for Europe and volatility levels may fall tomorrow as European markets are closed for Easter. Technical analysis currently points towards a continued downward trend. The price is trading below the neutral on the RSI and below the 75-Bar EMA. However, investors should note this will also be dependent on upcoming US data. USA100 The price of the USA100 was under pressure throughout the whole US session but was saved by an increased volume of buyers late in the session. However, a positive point is the components held onto their value. Even though the index fell in value, only 28% of the components declined. Investors will now turn their attention towards tomorrow’s PCE Price Index and the upcoming earnings season which will start in mid-April. The price is now trading slightly above the Moving Averages but slightly below the 50.00 on the RSI. Therefore, technical analysis remains at the “neutral” level and continues to indicate a larger price range. If today’s economic data is positive the stock market can witness confidence and support as this continues to indicate a soft landing. Though, if the data is too strong, it could also trigger a hawkish Fed which is known to be negative for the USA100. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • $IBKR Interactive Brokers stock narrow range breakout watch above 111.16 , see https://stockconsultant.com/?IBKR
    • $ISRG Intuitive Surgical stock narrow range breakout watch above 403.07 , see https://stockconsultant.com/?ISRG
    • $JETS ETF top of range breakout watch above 20.61 , see https://stockconsultant.com/?JETS
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.