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zdo

Developing Trader's State of Mind Discussion

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Possibly some of you may find these extracts of interest.

 

Krishnamurti on Fear

 

If letting go of fear of the unknown creates a perpetual state of curiosity, then everything from Trading to Rande's work and beyond has a natural tendency to fall into place.

 

The natural tendency in cosmic time is perceived very differently in temporal time. Most traders do not have enough time to play the cosmic time clock.

 

Rande Howell

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johnw ... on the subject of judgements, in my case Krishnamurti would be "preaching to the choir" :) ...

 

Related to the thread (and Rande can correct me if I'm off (or explain why) ) ... seems he uses the term 'assessments' instead of 'judgements' in the practical application work of the course...

 

Assessment and judgment are used by me to distinguish between evidence that supports an interpretation of performance while judgment holds the quality of a characterization of the self. This comes out of the work of Fernando Flores who was a student of Martin Heideger. Self limiting beliefs are external judgments of a human being that have taken on the feel of truth. Assessment is a way to interprete competence in performance. Makes a huge difference in the way a trader sees him or her self and their performance.

 

Rande Howell

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The natural tendency in cosmic time is perceived very differently in temporal time. Most traders do not have enough time to play the cosmic time clock.

 

Rande Howell

 

 

You have lost me Rande.

 

I thought we were all trying to improve our perception of reality through trading.

 

Are you saying that Curiosity plays no part in this process.

Curiosity lead me to buying your book, which is excellent in my opinion.

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You have lost me Rande.

 

I thought we were all trying to improve our perception of reality through trading.

 

Are you saying that Curiosity plays no part in this process.

Curiosity lead me to buying your book, which is excellent in my opinion.

 

johnw

 

Curiosity is an important aspect of Mindfulness and is part of how the brain/mind teases apart rigidly held beliefs. And we are on a journey to improve our perception of reality through trading. My point is that there are different ways of understanding time. Geologic or evolutionary time is very different than the sense of time than is experienced typically in trading. God has an eternity to work out the kinks in the cosmos. The temporal time that we must manage in our everyday lives is very different. It's the reactiveness of set patterns that need to be addressed. In due time, I have no doubt that it will all work out. Meanwhile, I'm all for the altering of neurally wired beliefs much more rapidly.

 

My guess is that I should have left your comment alone. Sorry about any confusion.

 

Rande

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OK, assessment it is then ...'gonna have to call bs on that one' is an assessment

'

 

johnw,

 

“'gonna have to call bs on that one' is an assessment” is also an assessment ;)

That ‘call bs’ was the first judgement of my whole life

Also the first time ‘my’ ego was ever active :missy:

… “Lead me not into temptation” - I can find it myself

 

…speaking of ego

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBUgFRdoFYo&feature=related]How and when to separate oneself from the ego - YouTube[/ame]

Mentions Krishnamurti ‘s You Are The World book.

 

Seriously - calling that 'bs' was really just petty parsing. In my current beliefs, all Krishnamurti described in that article was still at the level of brain and what I call ‘first body’ … was economically pointing out that nothing he discussed had really risen to the level of ‘Mind’ yet for me…

 

Many thanks for your contirbutions.

 

zdo

 

 

ps admin, is there a way to post a utube link that just puts up the hyperlink text and doesn' show the youtube picture ready to run? thx

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...In any case, I like how you admit that your 4-week course is too short and lacks "a powerful tool" you use only with your individual clients. I think that is called the "upsell" in marketing parlance. I'm sure if you offered it to zdo for free he would become your bosom buddy for life, or at least your ultimate shill. The "pmai" is it? To awaken the inner heroes? I think a pack of Yu Gi Oh cards does the same. I see the kids having a lot of fun with them after school at the local McDonald's.

 

gosu,

Please start a separate Kill Rande thread for that sht. It would probably have a larger audience than this one. I’ll try to make some time to come over and “shill”… thx

zdo

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How much self-awareness does a person need to avoid trouble in the markets?

 

If a person knows all about orphans, rulers and warriors, and whether or not they are in shadow form, does it mean he has self-awareness?

 

More to the point, can a person extract from the markets without self-awareness?

 

 

 

gosu,

re your questions - First, please explain to us how you are using your term “self - awareness”. Yours’ is the first usage of that term in this thread. I don’t think Rande has used it much on TL except in one article a while back. What do you mean by “self-awareness” ?

thanks.

zdo

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gosu,

Please start a separate Kill Rande thread for that sht. It would probably have a larger audience than this one. I’ll try to make some time to come over and “shill”… thx

zdo

 

No one is killing Rande here. You need to step away from being his lap dog to see that though.

 

Thanks for your suggestion to start another thread, but I'm not here to attract an audience and I don't care enough about what's going on here to do that.

 

Go back to stirring the KOOL-aid, you're doing fine.

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gosu,

re your questions - First, please explain to us how you are using your term “self - awareness”. Yours’ is the first usage of that term in this thread. I don’t think Rande has used it much on TL except in one article a while back. What do you mean by “self-awareness” ?

thanks.

zdo

 

When I quote the person in my post, you can take that to mean that my question refers to what the person said in his post. You've been on this site a lot longer than I have so I'm sure you know that's how it works.

 

Thus, I'm not sure if you're splitting hairs or just careless in your reading. I intend the meaning of "self-awareness" to be the same as the meaning of "awareness of self" in the post I quoted. The exact quote is "It is the lack of awareness of self that gets traders in trouble." If it helps you, just substitute "awareness of self" for "self-awareness" in my questions.

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No one is killing Rande here. You need to step away from being his lap dog to see that though.

 

Thanks for your suggestion to start another thread, but I'm not here to attract an audience and I don't care enough about what's going on here to do that.

 

Go back to stirring the KOOL-aid, you're doing fine.

 

Just to set things a little straighter. I know zdo only from TL and do not know his real name. I asked him to manage this thread because, over time, I came to appreciate his level headed ness. Since he has never done any of any of my work and appeared truly interested in advancing knowledge of trading, and recognizing the need for emotional and psychological development, he seemed a good prospect. that's it.

 

As far as Killing Rande, I really don't care what people say when there assessments are globalized and are not evidenced base. I listen to people's comments about my performances, but place no value on their judgments of my being. It is simply not theirs to judge.

 

rande Howell

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How much self-awareness does a person need to avoid trouble in the markets?

 

If a person knows all about orphans, rulers and warriors, and whether or not they are in shadow form, does it mean he has self-awareness?

 

More to the point, can a person extract from the markets without self-awareness?

 

 

...

 

 

If it helps you, just substitute "awareness of self" for "self-awareness" in my questions

 

 

For the general audience, I’ll loosely answer those questions.

“…can a person extract from the markets without self-awareness?” Of course.

But is a Tom Baldwin, for a ready example, more “self aware” than say a Paul Tutor Jones ? Yes.

Both excel. We’re not comparing failures to successes here.. we’re talking about incrementally building on strengths (an important distinction for all the ‘critics’ out there and ‘in here’ btw)

And which one made more money, more quickly, directly from trading? Tom. The ‘tom baldwin’ has an slightly more together/integrated sitting “inner counsel” of players…in this particular framework

 

It’s not about “knows all about orphans…” etc. … ( who knows, maybe you were using the ‘knows’ word like or not like someone else…) but however he’s using it, readers – “knows” is a trap!

 

This work is not a be all to end all. To me it is, in some ways, simply about adding more effective heuristic sets. Charles Munger, koolaid stirrer for Warren Buffett, has mastered 80+ of these ‘heuristic models’ for himself. According to Buffett, he has “the best thirty second mind in the world. He goes from A to Z in one move. He sees the essence… ”

 

Emotion is part and parcel of every thought, memory, neural activity… etc. It is not a side effect or minor element. It is a “data source that requires non standard ways of learning” to utilize properly and consistently – to wax lapdog for Denise Shull for a moment... Unfortunately for them, frustrated losers coincidently drop out of this kind of work about the time they get started.

 

gosu, so far you are like some dude who shows up at a football practice standing on the sidelines yelling criticisms at the coaches… which is kind of sad because you are most likely the “smartest guy in the class”.

so re: “Thanks for your suggestion to start another thread, but I'm not here to attract an audience and I don't care enough about what's going on here to do that.”

I’ve gotten on you about this before – if you don’t really care, then shut up.

Serve yourself elsewhere…work on your own projected weaknesses elsewhere… go from C(onstant) to C(riticism) elsewhere...

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Just to set things a little straighter. I know zdo only from TL and do not know his real name. I asked him to manage this thread because, over time, I came to appreciate his level headed ness. Since he has never done any of any of my work and appeared truly interested in advancing knowledge of trading, and recognizing the need for emotional and psychological development, he seemed a good prospect. that's it.

 

I commend you for picking the right person to man the punch bowl. His enthusiasm for your teachings is obvious and even before he began your course he was recommending it to others. "He seemed a good prospect" indeed.

 

As far as Killing Rande, I really don't care what people say when there assessments are globalized and are not evidenced base. I listen to people's comments about my performances, but place no value on their judgments of my being. It is simply not theirs to judge.

 

"Killing Rande" is something your Kool Aid stirrer made up. I do not think I am "killing" you or even bashing you by any means. Let me know which of my questions that I posed to you were "value judgments of [your] being" and I'll be sure to retract them and apologize.

 

The truth is I do not know you from Adam. For all I know you are probably a good husband, father, member of your church, etc. None of that is relevant to anything here. You hold yourself out as a guru of trading. I think you know a lot about your field but I know you know little about trading. What you post about trading is bullshit in my opinion. Nothing wrong with that. This is the internet; we are all free to bullshit as much as we like. I like to bullshit about trading too. Usually after a day of trading it helps me unwind a bit. I find it better to bullshit with other bullshitters. Sometimes that looks like "killing" to a person who is protective of your guru status.

 

Nothing personal.

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>>>

I really don't care what people say when there assessments are globalized and are not evidenced base.

<<<

 

Evidenced based is excellent.

 

OK. Your book, which has a lot of words, spends quite few of them on Jungian Archetypes and you also refer to Carol's book. All of which make a Spider's senses tingle very unpleasantly.

 

All the research I've done puts Jung's archetypes in the skeptic beware territory. Its a little like the old I'm Ok Your Ok followers who found they had parents, adults, and children. And I see a touch of it in the pro-course posts on this thread.

 

 

Where is the evidence base for the Jungian Archetype part of your prescription?

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Evidenced based is excellent.

 

OK. Your book, which has a lot of words, spends quite few of them on Jungian Archetypes and you also refer to Carol's book. All of which make a Spider's senses tingle very unpleasantly.

 

All the research I've done puts Jung's archetypes in the skeptic beware territory. Its a little like the old I'm Ok Your Ok followers who found they had parents, adults, and children. And I see a touch of it in the pro-course posts on this thread.

 

 

Where is the evidence base for the Jungian Archetype part of your prescription?

 

From one of the most reliable and tested personality inventories ever used. The Myers-Briggs personality inventory is derivative of Jung's archetypes. And both authors went to Jung to get his approval for quantifying his archetypes in the way they did. The M-B was orginally commissioned by the Army after they recognized how terrribly they organized men into teams during WW1. The creators studied his archetypes and built them into the instrument. Army's organization of men into coordinated teams improved to produce a very different Army for WW11 (that's the proof). The M-B has stood the test of time. And is still used today and is considered the grand daddy of all personality inventories. Dirivatives of it are used as a way of selecting all sorts of employees by business. Pearson's work is much more pure and succient in accessing and measuring the elements of personality in my opinion. The PMAI is a powerfully valid and reliable instrument for measuring elements of the human personality. Pearson selected a statistics guy with impeccable credentials to produce and validate the tests.

 

I would suggest that you take the pmai and discover for yourself, particularly the shadow side. My suspicion (not fact) is that you would find strong Creator (intuition) and shadow Orphan (trust issues).

 

Rande Howell

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The truth is I do not know you from Adam. For all I know you are probably a good husband, father, member of your church, etc. None of that is relevant to anything here. You hold yourself out as a guru of trading. I think you know a lot about your field but I know you know little about trading. What you post about trading is bullshit in my opinion. Nothing wrong with that. This is the internet; we are all free to bullshit as much as we like. I like to bullshit about trading too. Usually after a day of trading it helps me unwind a bit. I find it better to bullshit with other bullshitters. Sometimes that looks like "killing" to a person who is protective of your guru status.

 

Nothing personal.

 

Problem is gosu, Rande actually says he does not trade and is more an expert in psychology, and you are making it personal.

I like you am not much of a believer - thats part of my personality, but I still dont mind reading other points of view without continual interjections from one who is admittedly full of BS. From a common decency point of view, once your point is made are you best not to let it drop and ask questions that might create debate/discussion rather than conflict???

Too often the skeptic looses credibility and pushes those wavering toward the guru....maybe thats what you really want, maybe you are the real lackey of Rande and Zdo is just the fall guy.....ahh the Machiavellian evil brilliance.

 

(Plus Rande, just because the US army and corporations use the personality test is not evidence it works - just evidence its widely used and recognized compared to other personality tests. :) and so probably still has great validity.

--- and on that note, a serious question - if we have personality tests that catgorise us, and I assume the premise that we can change our base personalities remains the same.

In which case a myers briggs test taken at one stage in life is likely to reveal a different personality at a different stage in life? or are we really stuck with who we are?

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(Plus Rande, just because the US army and corporations use the personality test is not evidence it works - just evidence its widely used and recognized compared to other personality tests. :) and so probably still has great validity.

--- and on that note, a serious question - if we have personality tests that catgorise us, and I assume the premise that we can change our base personalities remains the same.

In which case a myers briggs test taken at one stage in life is likely to reveal a different personality at a different stage in life? or are we really stuck with who we are?

 

SIUYA

 

This is really a good point. When I work with a business evaluating a potential hire, I send the prospective employee to a trained testing psychologist. Part of the hiring decision is based on the assessment of current functioning. Certain working traits are looked for. And the testing, which does not produce certainty but does rachet up probabilty, does cut out a lot of guess work and bad intuitive hunches. Recently a friend of mine was hired by an insurance firm after an exhaustive series of tests and interviews that blew me away. They knew what traits they were looking for and produced a rigorous way of observing for them. When you realize the investment they make in their personnel, you can see why they wanted the odds in their favor. He has done exceptionally well. Rare talent met intentional focused training.

 

One of the problems of psyhological thinking from the early 1900's into present time is the notion of determinism. That there is finite character traits that can be defined and do not change. I personally do not hold this. And it is one of the reasons that I like the archetypal system developed by Jung and Pearson. People change over time. Traits morph based on experience, circumstance, and maturity. They are not permanent. I would hope that, based on circumstance and maturation, that the archetypes that are in current expression within a person's personality will change. I certainly see this happening.

 

The strength of an archetype is often never developed in a person given a certain environment. Later in a different environment, those elements of the self that were once pushed out of awareness are reawakened. Walk into an AA meeting and listen to people with 5, 10, 20 years in the program and you will see the fruit of this.

 

I tend to look at people like a stream. It appears permanent on the surface. But it changes. And as the Buddhists say, you never step into the same stream twice.

 

We certainly can become hardened and our attitudes become like concrete. It doesn't have to be this way. But it does take work and awareness to change. And I find the dynamics of trading to challenge the concrete the trader brings to trading. It's kinda like a jack hammer. The first order of business is to delvelop a psychology organized around the management of uncertainty rather than fear. The majority of traders (not everyone, but most) are capable of this to a degree that can produce a livable income. It requires a desire, a commitment, and education.

 

Rande Howell

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... just because the US army and corporations use the personality test is not evidence it works - just evidence its widely used and recognized compared to other personality tests. :) and so probably still has great validity.

--- and on that note, a serious question - if we have personality tests that catgorise us, and I assume the premise that we can change our base personalities remains the same.

In which case a myers briggs test taken at one stage in life is likely to reveal a different personality at a different stage in life? or are we really stuck with who we are?

 

I don’t really understand how organizations can utilize the test. I don’t really think the typical HR bozo would be able to use it to build teams or even screen out ‘incompatibles’. Using it for ‘categorization’ may be misguided and naïve. re questions about the evidence:

In the early 80’s, I had access to the test through a friend in the field and learned how to score any dang type I wanted to be… it didn’t make me any more of a sentient being…

Also, my wife tells me that the percentage of those scoring INT_ is skewed pretty low (~10%) and those who are INT_’s also score significantly high on intelligence tests… something’s fishy at least.

Raises more questions than answers…

 

I personally tend to just ignore all that crap about the test and use it and similar measures for insight into my particular current strengths and blind spots..

The base Jungian theory is that each of us starts with tendencies (not exclusive) in one of the Jungian ‘types’… some of the more esoteric work in this field, (the juicy stuff, imo) has us starting in one ‘category’ and our potential across a lifetime is the development of a awareness of, competency in, and ultimately a synergistic integration of all the types that were recessive at the start. Jung called it “individuation”.

 

Jung theorized four distinct ways of ‘metabolizing’ experience. In real life, out and about, they are all actually operational simultaneously… but mostly below the level of awareness, as are most life processes… we each develop (or genetically unfold?) a tendency to habitually go to the well on one or two of them and ignore the others.

The life challenge is to integrate all of these types, etc.

 

I’m no expert but the archetypes are basically common human experiences along developmental lines mostly. Someone mentions orphan and unless you’re seriously damaged you can relate to it – it’s a child who has been abandoned and feels it. Someone mentions puer. You may not be able to get real close to it but you can still somehow relate to and understand some guy who is endlessly traveling, seeking, never quite settling down, etc.. We can relate to, via “archetypes”, all the varieties of being and then not being a virgin… or a lover... etc etc etc. Some archetypes we can relate to closely, even though you have never 'acted them out'. Other archetypes we will be as frickn blind as a bat to – and often in judgement, declare closure and can hardly even concede the existence of such human experiences. As best I can tell, Rande is focusing more on the emotional components of each of these common (developmental) 'attractors'

 

I prefer resistance to closure and getting as much as I can from these 'fringes' of our understanding. Looking back, I'm seeing archetypal areas where I need to 'retrace' and try a do over... with even less thinking type activity... etc.

 

This whole framework is just a tool. Calling someone's competency and intentions into question because they can work within a framework, "scientific" or not, is ... to put it nicely, not very inclusive...

the critics herein act as if they've suddenly discovered a unique way we may be fooling ourselves - when it may just be a way to prevent fooling ourselves... hm

"I love fool's experiments. I'm always making them." C.Darwin

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Problem is gosu, Rande actually says he does not trade and is more an expert in psychology, and you are making it personal.

I like you am not much of a believer - thats part of my personality, but I still dont mind reading other points of view without continual interjections from one who is admittedly full of BS. From a common decency point of view, once your point is made are you best not to let it drop and ask questions that might create debate/discussion rather than conflict???

Too often the skeptic looses credibility and pushes those wavering toward the guru....maybe thats what you really want, maybe you are the real lackey of Rande and Zdo is just the fall guy.....ahh the Machiavellian evil brilliance.

 

* * *

 

Where have I gotten personal? I have no problem with Rande and if my posts gain him more clients, that would hardly displease me. His touting his services here makes this site more fun to visit. I do recognize he has to put food on the table and a wife to support, and we all know he's incapable of extracting what he needs from the market.

 

Of course I don't give him a free pass for saying he doesn't trade. That's the whole point! Most trading vendors have to tap dance around actual trading performance questions and he has found a way to hold himself out as a trading guru without getting such questions from people like you. I find that quite ingenious to be honest.

 

With regard to asking questions to further the discussion, maybe you haven't noticed that I have been asking questions. They all relate to the statements he makes about how to trade. Usually my questions go unanswered, I suppose for the reason he has no actual experience to draw from and has not thought through carefully the drivel he puts forth about trading. This is a message board. If you can't handle needling someone about such things here, then you've got problems.

 

In any case, you are mistaken if you think I am here to gain "credibility" or save people from gurus. If my posts are too much for your sensitivities, the solution is to put me on ignore, which is the same advice I gave to zdo. To help in that regard, I do say upfront that my posts are bullshit so you won't be missing anything by not reading them.

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From one of the most reliable and tested personality inventories ever used. The Myers-Briggs personality inventory is derivative of Jung's archetypes. And both authors went to Jung to get his approval for quantifying his archetypes in the way they did. The M-B was orginally commissioned by the Army after they recognized how terrribly they organized men into teams during WW1. The creators studied his archetypes and built them into the instrument. Army's organization of men into coordinated teams improved to produce a very different Army for WW11 (that's the proof). The M-B has stood the test of time. And is still used today and is considered the grand daddy of all personality inventories. Dirivatives of it are used as a way of selecting all sorts of employees by business. Pearson's work is much more pure and succient in accessing and measuring the elements of personality in my opinion. The PMAI is a powerfully valid and reliable instrument for measuring elements of the human personality. Pearson selected a statistics guy with impeccable credentials to produce and validate the tests.

 

I would suggest that you take the pmai and discover for yourself, particularly the shadow side. My suspicion (not fact) is that you would find strong Creator (intuition) and shadow Orphan (trust issues).

 

Rande Howell

 

 

OK. So much for your argument that others need to be evidence based. That is not evidence in the modern psychological or social science meanings of the word, so there is no evidence then.

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* * *

 

* * * The first order of business is to delvelop a psychology organized around the management of uncertainty rather than fear. The majority of traders (not everyone, but most) are capable of this to a degree that can produce a livable income.* * *

 

 

This is pure entertainment.

 

You say that the majority of traders (not everyone, but most) can produce a livable income? Since you are into "evidence based" assessments, may I ask what your evidence is for such an audacious statement?

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To all

 

Since the course is over and the participants eventually migrated over to a yahoo chatroom where the conversation could stay focused on the topic of developing traders state of mind, I believe this forum has run its course.

 

To those traders who were observing this forum as way to study trader psychology from a closer perspective, I apologize for the degradation that occurred here. My hope was that you were going to be able to be witness to traders working with materials that can become the tools for transformation. That didn't happen. The space clearly got sucked into a different kind of vortex. But you did get to see personal psychologies interact with one another. Just not about trading.

 

It's been an interesting experiment and I thank zdo for riding herd as well as he did.

 

Rande Howell

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Rande

 

Like many here, I have no idea what (if any) benefit your clients receive from attending....and whether the benefit is immediate or seen later as they trade...?

 

So perhaps you might want to ask your clients to post (maybe every few months) to let us know how they are doing, and whether they see any improvement as a result of attendance at this seminar.

 

Thank you

 

Steve

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Rande

 

Like many here, I have no idea what (if any) benefit your clients receive from attending....and whether the benefit is immediate or seen later as they trade...?

 

So perhaps you might want to ask your clients to post (maybe every few months) to let us know how they are doing, and whether they see any improvement as a result of attendance at this seminar.

 

Thank you

 

Steve

 

Rande, rather than kill the thread I had planned to just open it up to everyone - including the previously uninvited - to, if nothing else, 'make some lemonade' :)

Steve46, good idea. brief immediate impressions - I'm grateful he is in this field and am glad that he is bringing forward what has unfolded from his work in finding his own self compatible models for 'change and growth' and what is being made available to traders in particular from his previous training, study, and work with other populations.

What I have applied so far has had immediate benefits, but the long term benefit is in laying down new patterns - which takes time and work. It will take some time for me to bring my own timing, etc to the sequences of the major practices he taught. For example, it seemed like the breaths were coming too fast and not frequent enough per 'section'...etc

Also, his verbally 'guided' sessions understandably emphasized common issues like 'pulling the trigger' , etc. I personally have not had issues with pulling the trigger for many years, so the 'ramp up' content was, for me, quite distracting to the process I was trying to do and fear contents I was trying to work with. This just means that rather than being able to utilize the tapes directly, I will need to extract the essence of the protocols and create my own scripts and timing... note though that any and all participants would ultimately have to make adaptations on their own - not just me. It's part of the work. A coach or teacher in any field can teach you what to do and focus on, but it's always up to the individual to go out and really learn / ingrain it.

 

I invite all the participants to come on with some 'testimmonial' of their experiences too (+ or -) ... gotta go...more later... you all have a great weekend

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    • also ... and barely on topic... Winners (always*) overpay. Buying the dips is a subscription to the belief that winners win by underpaying - when in actuality winners (inevitably/always*) win by overpaying... it’s amazing the percentage of traders who think winners win by underpaying ... “Winners (always*) overpay.” ...  One way to implement this ‘belief’ is to only reenter when prices have emphatically resumed the 'trend' .   (Fwiw, While “Winners (always*) overpay.” holds true in most endeavors (relationships, business, sports, etc...) - “Winners (always*) overpay.”  is especially true for auctions... continuous auctions included.)
    • re:  "Does it make sense to always buy the dips?  “Buy the dip.”  You hear this all the time in crypto investing trading speculation gambling. [zdo taking some liberties] It refers, of course, to buying more bitcoin (or digital assets) when they go down in price: when the price “dips.” Some people brag about “buying the dip," showing they know better than the crowd. Others “buy the dip” as an investment strategy: they’re getting a bargain. The problem is, buying the dip is a fallacy. You can’t buy the dip, because you can't see the total dip until much later. First, I’ll explain this in a way that will make it simple and obvious to you; then I’ll show you a better way of investing. You Only Know the Dip in Hindsight When people talk about “buying the dip,” what they’re really saying is, “I bought when the price was going down.” " ... example of a dip ... 
    • Date: 19th April 2024. Weekly Commodity Market Update: Oil Prices Correct and Supply Concerns Persist.   The ongoing developments in the Middle East sparked a wave of risk aversion and fueled supply concerns and investors headed for safety. Hopes for imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve diminish while attention is now turning towards the demand outlook. The Gold price hit a high of $2417.89 per ounce overnight. Sentiment has already calmed down again and bullion is trading at $2376.50 per ounce as haven flows ease. Oil prices initially moved higher as concern over escalating tensions with the WTI contract hit a session high of $85.508 per barrel overnight, before correcting to currently $81.45 per barrel. Oil Prices Under Pressure Amid Middle East Tensions Last week, commodity indexes showed little movement, with Oil prices undergoing a slight correction. Meanwhile, Gold reached yet another record high, mirroring the upward trend in cocoa prices. Once again today, USOil prices experienced a correction and has remained under pressure, retesting the 50-day EMA at $81.00 as we moving into the weekend. Hence, despite the Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran, sentiments stabilized following reports suggesting a measured response aimed at avoiding further escalation. Brent crude futures witnessed a more than 4% leap, driven by concerns over potential disruptions to oil supplies in the Middle East, only to subsequently erase all gains. Similarly with USOIL, UKOIL hovers just below $87 per barrel, marginally below Thursday’s closing figures. Nevertheless, volatility is expected to continue in the market as several potential risks loom:   Disruption to the Strait of Hormuz: The possibility of Iran disrupting navigation through the vital shipping lane, is still in play. The Strait of Hormuz serves as the Persian Gulf’s primary route to international waters, with approximately 21 million barrels of oil passing through daily. Recent events, including Iran’s seizure of an Israel-linked container ship, underscore the geopolitical sensitivity of the region. Tougher Sanctions on Iran: Analysts speculate that the US may impose stricter sanctions on Iranian oil exports or intensify enforcement of existing restrictions. With global oil consumption reaching 102 million barrels per day, Iran’s production of 3.3 million barrels remains significant. Recent actions targeting Venezuelan oil highlight the potential for increased pressure on Iranian exports. OPEC Output Increases: Despite the desire for higher prices, OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have constrained output in recent years. However, sustained crude prices above $100 per barrel could prompt concerns about demand and incentivize increased production. The OPEC may opt to boost oil output should tensions escalate further and prices surge. Ukraine Conflict: Amidst the focus on the Middle East, markets overlooking Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Potential retaliatory strikes by Kyiv on Russian oil infrastructure could impact exports, adding further complexity to global oil markets.   Technical Analysis USOIL is marking one of the steepest weekly declines witnessed this year after a brief period of consolidation. The breach below the pivotal support level of 84.00, coupled with the descent below the mid of the 4-month upchannel, signals a possible shift in market sentiment towards a bearish trend reversal. Adding to the bearish outlook are indications such as the downward slope in the RSI. However, the asset still hold above the 50-day EMA which coincides also with the mid of last year’s downleg, with key support zone at $80.00-$81.00. If it breaks this support zone, the focus may shift towards the 200-day EMA and 38.2% Fib. level at $77.60-$79.00. Conversely, a rejection of the $81 level and an upside potential could see the price returning back to $84.00. A break of the latter could trigger the attention back to the December’s resistance, situated around $86.60. A breakthrough above this level could ignite a stronger rally towards the $89.20-$90.00 zone. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past perfrmance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 18th April 2024. Market News – Stock markets benefit from Dollar correction. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Technical buying, bargain hunting, and risk aversion helped Treasuries rally and unwind recent losses. Yields dropped from the recent 2024 highs. Asian stock markets strengthened, as the US Dollar corrected in the wake of comments from Japan’s currency chief Masato Kanda, who said G7 countries continue to stress that excessive swings and disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were harmful for economies. US Stockpiles expanded to 10-month high. The data overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented recent attack. President Joe Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum.   Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex stumbled, falling to 105.66 at the end of the day from the intraday high of 106.48. It lost ground against most of its G10 peers. There wasn’t much on the calendar to provide new direction. USDJPY lows retesting the 154 bottom! NOT an intervention yet. BoJ/MoF USDJPY intervention happens when there is more than 100+ pip move in seconds, not 50 pips. USOIL slumped by 3% near $82, as US crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels last week, hitting the highest level since last June, while gauges of fuel demand declined. Gold strengthened as the dollar weakened and bullion is trading at $2378.44 per ounce. Market Trends:   Wall Street closed in the red after opening with small corrective gains. The NASDAQ underperformed, slumping -1.15%, with the S&P500 -0.58% lower, while the Dow lost -0.12. The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng gained more than 1. European and US futures are finding buyers. A gauge of global chip stocks and AI bellwether Nvidia Corp. have both fallen into a technical correction. The TMSC reported its first profit rise in a year, after strong AI demand revived growth at the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. The main chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. recorded a 9% rise in net income, beating estimates. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
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