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Rande Howell

The Fear of Loss of Control: Type A Personality Meets the Uncertainty of Trading

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by Rande Howell

www.tradersstateofmind.com

 

David had never known fear he could not conquer before now. Both as a competitive karate champion and a business man, he had controlled his fears - not allowing them to get in the way of victory. David was a very successful, "large-and-in-charge" executive. There was no mountain he could not climb and no situation he could not conquer. By sheer will power and a commanding presence, he could set a goal and make it happen. And he had the success to prove it.

 

He had sold his business, and, with a large amount of cash he was ready to attack his next venture -- trading. He believed that all he had to do was to learn a methodology and he was ready to take on trading. In his mind, trading was just another challenge to master.

 

Three years later, he had hit a brick wall. He was not losing much, but he was not winning either. Instead, David was losing his nerve once he entered a trade. After entry, he often became so frazzled with a trade initially bouncing around that he lost his nerve and would bail out on a trade before it could refresh.

 

This aspect of the uncertainty, so common to the trading world, was an alien concept to him. He had always been able to conquer doubt. By sheer will, he had forced his way to success. But trading was a very different world, with different rules, than the world he knew. David saw the handwriting on the wall. It was time to re-tool his skills.

 

A Need to Control Uncertainty

 

David’s problem is that he has been successful in other domains of performance. He is so comfortable with his belief system (which had, after all, produced success in one area of his life) that he is now oblivious to what produces success in trading – particular managing uncertainty. And it is a problem rooted in both his biology and psychology.

 

David’s brain, like any brain, is going to avoid chaos or uncertainty and will organize the mind to seek certainty as a way of ensuring survival. This is called adaptation. Once the brain locks in on a successful strategy for creating certainty in a world of uncertainty, it habituates the solution in a self-fulfilling pattern. These hard-wired patterns become our beliefs from which our psychology arises.

 

Listen to David as he explains his Type A Personality:

 

“My wife calls me a control freak. And I do need to control things. For my entire life I have felt that I have to be in control. And this attitude worked. I thought it was me, but I have learned that this need to control was the way my brain adapted my sense of self to the circumstances of my life.

 

When I was growing up, I had to be in control. After my parents divorced, I lived with my mother and we were hard pressed to keep a roof over our heads. Mom worked three jobs and I was in charge of the house, and my sister, by the time I was eight years old. If I had not been in control, things would have fallen apart. And that was not going to happen.

 

It’s these very traits that formed me. When I left home, it was just natural for me to be in control and to run things. I had a gut sense of how to manage and overcome challenges. This served me well until I began to trade.”

 

Biology Meets Psychology of Trading

 

David's brain adapted him to successfully negotiate the difficult circumstances of his formative period. This adaptation of self, his predisposition, was a perfect set-up to become a successful executive and businessman. His control-centered Type A Personality had served him well in business and competitive sports.

 

Here’s the glitch, though. The pattern-producing brain, always biased toward creating the feeling of certainty, had created pre-conditions that were counter-productive in the world of trading. In trading, there is no controlling uncertainty by using sheer willpower. Rather, a successful trading psychology is built around the management of uncertainty – not its control.

 

To become success in the domain of trading, David (and all traders) must build a new psychology where uncertainty is at first tolerated and later managed. Because your brain is mandated to create a feeling of certainty out of the uncertainty of life, a trader will have to build a new psychology intentionally. Your brain was never built for trading where the trader understands that he cannot control the outcome of the markets – he can only control how he responds to the market’s action. This is where there is a great divide - between the pre-disposition of our brain’s desire for certainty and our mind’s need to manage ambiguity.

 

David developed his psychology by being born into a particular history and adapting to it successfully. The brain will always lock in this success as self-fulfilling pattern. It then becomes the way our mind perceives the world. For traders who refuse to change the way they perceive ambiguity, they will always fear uncertainty.

 

This is David’s dilemma – giving up the illusion of control. His Type A Personality has been a very successful adaptation – so it is hardwired into his neuro-circuitry as a self-belief. Yet this belief that the outside world can be controlled and made to conform to your vision does not work in trading in the markets. Trading requires a very different emotional and mental disposition. It requires that you develop a mindset that allows you to take what the markets are willing to give you.

 

Reconstructing a Mindset

 

David is in the process of re-tooling his mindset. He is moving away from trying to control events (so successful in his previous career) and embracing a mindset built to manage uncertainty. What he has come face to face with is his fear of uncertainty. He calls this, “the glitters”. The environmental pressure he grew up in was all about controlling the potential of chaos to destroy his mother’s home. Later, as it became the shaper of his psychology, it evolved into a generalized need to have the power to force things to go his way. It is this fear of uncertainty, and the way a trader deals with ambiguity, that has to be re-understood so that a more effective mindset can be developed for trading.

 

As David embraced emotional regulation training, here is what he is now saying:

 

“Focusing on my breath during my trading the last few days has definitely helped me keep my wits about me, but I can certainly feel the fear response trying to take over so I know I have lots of work to do! I see that when I enter a trade, I am no longer in control. I can’t make it do what I want. I am seeing my need to control comes from how I learned to manage uncertainty. Once I experienced uncertainty, it was a short ride to my fear of loss of control. I can interrupt the pattern from taking control of me now. But I’m a long way from being comfortable with not having control over external events. What I am learning is that I can have control over how I respond to the uncertainty of not being in control. Once you’re in the trade, it requires a different mindset.”

 

Learning to interrupt the arousal of anxiety by breathing and relaxation, David is now acknowledging the honest fear behind his need to control. With his biology of fear calmed down, he is learning to soothe his fear rather than push it away. He no longer is beating himself up when he triggers to fear. He is recognizing that he is simply bringing his learned dispositions that have been on automatic into his trading. Now when these pre-conditions trigger, he has the opportunity to re-train them.

 

He is learning both on a psychological level and a biological level that fear, like risk, is to be managed, not controlled. He watches for the tell-tale signs of an emotional hijacking – eyes bulging, tense muscles, breath held, and a clinched fist. He interrupts this bio-emotional arousal before his mind is hijacked. He then soothes his fears by talking himself down. And he acknowledges that, once he enters the trade and takes off a chunk of the risk at the first ping, he is not in control anymore. He had control until he pulled the trigger. Now his job is to manage his reaction to uncertainty. But my staying calm, his mind is no longer being overwhelmed by fear when he does not have control of outcome. He takes on the mindset of a defensive coordinator rather than an offensive coordinator – which is far more comfortable.

 

He is learning to shift psychological gears from the kind of mindset that evaluates set ups that give him an edge to a mindset that manages the emotional turbulence that can come when capital is actually at risk. In the first mindset, discipline and impartiality are needed to spot the opportunity and to act on it. In the second mindset of managing the trade once capital is committed, a heavy dose of self-soothing is required to keep the uncertainty of managing the risk from snowballing into fear or panic. This is the intersection where trading, biology, and trained psychology meet. It did not come natural for David, self admitted Type A control freak that he is. But, as he discovered, he is trainable.

 

The skill sets he learned included emotional regulation, mindfulness, and internal dialog management. He also had to re-discover and develop a self-soothing aspect of himself that he had never used before. He discovered that self-soothing was a powerful internal strength that every trader needed to develop to keep his mind thinking clearly during the ambiguous times of riding the trade. By learning how to do this, his trading is far less stressful and more profitable now.

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Very good article. May be I feel what it means by self soothing, I expect anyway more details about , as this point is critical. Successfull traders had this as a "gift"or have trained themselves to arrive to this point ?

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Is Dave a real person or a hypothetical?

 

What exactly is meant by "self-soothing"? Will you give an example?

 

Dave is actually a client of mine with a different name. And I lifted material from my notes to write this article. I change names for protection of client's privacy. Dont think he'd like his laundry spread out for the TL crowd to pontificate about.

 

Self soothing is a term I use for self compassion. The emotional state of compassion is the emotion that actually teases apart fear based self limiting beliefs so that the belief (also about self) can be reconstructed into a higher functioning belief.

 

As an example, consider what happens when things go wrong in a trade. You'll notice that most traders beat themselves up whenever they make a mistake or are on the wrong side of probability in a trade. It is this "beating self up" that keeps the self limiting belief in persistance. The more you beat yourself up, the more embedded the belief pattern is. Self compassion, self soothing, mollifies the fear so that the meaning that has fused to the fear can be changed. It's a very unique emotion in its capacity to change beliefs. In the Christian Bible you will notice that Jesus is moved by compassion when he performs miricles (changes the person's self beliefs). Nelson Mandela used compassion as a tool to change aparteid. Compassion is strong stuff in the hands of a skilled practitioner.

 

In the same way that fear is inherent to the human condition, so is self compassion. It's a matter of emotionally regulating the fear and intentionally seeing through the eyes of self soothing, discipline, courage, and impartiality -- which are also inherent to the human condition. It's a matter of the intentionality that you can consciously bring to the trading mind.

 

What was remarkable about David is that his belief system was not rigid as most Type A's are. Men tend to be stubbornly resistant to any thing beyond their current comfort zone. Most pretend that they can "leave their emotions at the door". And there is a hard edge about this group. The truth is that as long as you are alive, emotions will guide thinking. Thinking and emotions simply are not separate from one another. If you buy into this assumption, it becomes vital that the trader become emotionally intelligent and intentional in their use. Not just in trading, but in the rest of your life.

 

Rande Howell

www.tradersstateofmind.com

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Very good article. May be I feel what it means by self soothing, I expect anyway more details about , as this point is critical. Successfull traders had this as a "gift"or have trained themselves to arrive to this point ?

 

The potential of our humanness is enormous. Fear tends to be the factor that most limits our capacity to change. Self compassion is a necessary tool for reinvention of the self.

 

Some people are simply born with a disposition suitable for trading. Some grow up in families where risk evaluation is encouraged.. Jan Arps is such a guy as is his son Hawk. When they trade, there is a natural imparitiality.

 

Most don't come equipped off the shelf with this temperment. It has to be developed. Fortunately there is ample proor that the traits needed to trade consistently can be taught. First stop is emotional regulation. Unless fear is managed, your potential stays locked up.

 

Rande Howell

www.tradersstateofmind.com

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* * *

In the second mindset of managing the trade once capital is committed, a heavy dose of self-soothing is required to keep the uncertainty of managing the risk from snowballing into fear or panic.* * *

 

Thanks for the reply.

 

I snipped the part of your article that led me to ask what you meant by "self-soothing."

 

You say self-soothing is self-compassion. Pardon me for being a bit dense, but if I replace "self-soothing" with "self-compassion" in that sentence, I'm not much better off in my understanding.

 

You give an example of what is not self-compassion: self-compassion is not beating myself up for making a mistake or being "on the wrong side of probability in a trade" (I take this to mean the trade was a loser). But if you were to instruct me in how to "keep the uncertainty of managing the risk from snowballing into fear or panic" by the use of self-compassion or self-soothing, what exactly would I be doing? Am I saying nice things to myself while I'm in a trade? Am I thinking how wonderful life is and all is well?

 

Can you be more specific as to how I would use self-compassion to manage a trade in which I'm dealing with uncertainty so that it doesn't snowball into fear or panic? What exactly am I doing, thinking, saying, etc. while I'm in the trade?

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I read it differently. There was a bit of emphasis on not beating yourself up. In other words, love yourself enough not to do it. Instead use the power of compassion toward yourself such that your focus remains intact, and you don't go off the deep end and compound the errors you have already made by being in a bad trade. Let those feelings go, stay in the moment and make the wisest decision you can with an unclouded mind.

 

I hope what I am saying helps,

 

Chuckaltair...;)

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Thanks for the reply.

 

I snipped the part of your article that led me to ask what you meant by "self-soothing."

 

You say self-soothing is self-compassion. Pardon me for being a bit dense, but if I replace "self-soothing" with "self-compassion" in that sentence, I'm not much better off in my understanding.

 

You give an example of what is not self-compassion: self-compassion is not beating myself up for making a mistake or being "on the wrong side of probability in a trade" (I take this to mean the trade was a loser). But if you were to instruct me in how to "keep the uncertainty of managing the risk from snowballing into fear or panic" by the use of self-compassion or self-soothing, what exactly would I be doing? Am I saying nice things to myself while I'm in a trade? Am I thinking how wonderful life is and all is well?

 

Can you be more specific as to how I would use self-compassion to manage a trade in which I'm dealing with uncertainty so that it doesn't snowball into fear or panic? What exactly am I doing, thinking, saying, etc. while I'm in the trade?

 

Self soothing is an element of compassion. Self compassion is the antidote to anger at self or fear (assuming the object of threat is not a biological threat to life and is psychological discomfort). This is why beating the self up after a mistake or loss is counter productive. It does not open us to learning to respond differently. Directing compassion toward the self after a mistake or loss occurs opens the ability of learning beyond the comfort zone that got you in the trouble in the first place. In this vignette David learned during his formlative period to be in control or face chaos. Years later in a trade, he experiences the potential of chaos (losing) and is historically triggered right back into the learned repetoire of perception. In the here and now, he learns to counter act this response to fear by bringing self compassion to the part of himself that had to be in control. And he recognizes that once he is in a trade, he is not in control of what the markets are going to do. This is where compassion is able to calm his fear so that he becomes capable of acting from a higher organization of self. Compassion soothes the fear so that he can act, not from the fear of loss of control, but from the impartiality that allows him to think and act from his trading plan -- which is more about vigilance and defense rather than the offensive nature so natural to him. This is called Emotional Intelligence.

 

Rande Howell

www.tradersstateofmind.com

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I read it differently. There was a bit of emphasis on not beating yourself up. In other words, love yourself enough not to do it. Instead use the power of compassion toward yourself such that your focus remains intact, and you don't go off the deep end and compound the errors you have already made by being in a bad trade. Let those feelings go, stay in the moment and make the wisest decision you can with an unclouded mind.

 

I hope what I am saying helps,

 

Chuckaltair...;)

 

It's accurate for sure.

 

Rande Howell

www.tradersstateofmind.com

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So basically you are speaking of a general attitude. Got it.

 

I misunderstood the meaning of what you wrote. I saw the reference to managing a trade and thought you were discussing a specific technique.

 

I suppose "Don't beat yourself up" is specific enough. But that is so basic that it should be a given.

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Is Dave a real person or a hypothetical?

 

What exactly is meant by "self-soothing"? Will you give an example?

 

I thought I would post this from Joe Ross's blog, as it kind of fits this thread:

 

Why beat yourself up if you can’t fix something that is severely broken? You can’t put a broken egg back together again, so you might as well make scrambled eggs. Similarly, with trading, you need to fix whatever is wrong with your strategies or methods as soon as possible. You don’t have time to blame yourself for what went wrong. It’s better to concentrate on how you can change what’s going wrong by taking an objective, problem solving approach. Don’t take things personally and emotionally.

 

When things don’t go your way, do whatever you can to change matters, and do it fast. Don’t continually assume that every unpleasant event you encounter is your fault, and that you should take the blame as if you did something wrong. Don’t ridicule yourself for making an understandable mistake. Now, at some abstract level, it may be your “fault.” Ultimately, you are in control, but it doesn’t help you recover from a setback to constantly dwell on how you did something wrong and should be blamed for it. When we take too much responsibility for our actions, we tend to blame and punish ourselves when things go wrong, the same way our parents may have punished us when we were children. When it comes to performing a task, such as entering or exiting a trade, it’s vital to de-personalize or objectify matters. Rather than consider the “meaning” or “personal significance” of an action or event, it’s more useful to think strategically. Concentrate on the ongoing process of trading.

 

So when things go wrong, don’t think emotionally, think strategically. Concentrate on what you can do next to solve the problem. Enjoy the intellectual challenge and rise to meet it. If you can avoid taking setbacks personally, you’ll rise to higher levels of experience, and trade like a master.

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I thought I would post this from Joe Ross's blog, as it kind of fits this thread:

 

This is kinda like Nancy Reagan's campaign for drug avoidance in the 1980's -- Just Say NO.

 

The problem with this approach is that it doesn't work, though it sounds like it is good advice. Deeply embedded perceptual maps just don't respond to logical problem solving. Changing a habituated engrained emotional pattern that has proven successful requires much more than good sounding advice for change to occur.

 

Many people read trader psychology books , or advice like this, till they can quote them and talk the talk. They know what the mindset is supposed to look like, but they keep their inconsistent ways. But they can't walk the walk based on their performance. They don't understand HOW to change their current perception into an effective mindset for trading. This is what this article addresses.

 

Rande Howell

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This is kinda like Nancy Reagan's campaign for drug avoidance in the 1980's -- Just Say NO.

 

The problem with this approach is that it doesn't work, though it sounds like it is good advice. Deeply embedded perceptual maps just don't respond to logical problem solving. Changing a habituated engrained emotional pattern that has proven successful requires much more than good sounding advice for change to occur.

 

Many people read trader psychology books , or advice like this, till they can quote them and talk the talk. They know what the mindset is supposed to look like, but they keep their inconsistent ways. But they can't walk the walk based on their performance. They don't understand HOW to change their current perception into an effective mindset for trading. This is what this article addresses.

 

Rande Howell

 

What specifically doesn't work? And what's wrong with "just say no"? Sometimes the best solutions to complex problems are often simple.

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What specifically doesn't work? And what's wrong with "just say no"? Sometimes the best solutions to complex problems are often simple.

 

Kids keep doing drugs and more of them. The campaign was designed to lessen the problem. That is what didn't work.

 

Rande Howell

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Kids keep doing drugs and more of them. The campaign was designed to lessen the problem. That is what didn't work.

 

Rande Howell

 

Sure, kids continue doing drugs; however drug use has declined and so has crime over the last few decades. It is hard to measure how much of an impact "just say NO!" had on drug use. There were many factors that helped reduce drug use.

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Sure, kids continue doing drugs; however drug use has declined and so has crime over the last few decades. It is hard to measure how much of an impact "just say NO!" had on drug use. There were many factors that helped reduce drug use.

 

And Just So No was a joke to most of the people who were in the trenches doing treatment with youth and their families as I was during this time period. We did get a lot of parents in denial who thought their kid would never lie to them or would never do such things. Of course, the same things are happening today.

 

Back to the topic.

 

Rande Howell

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    • Date: 18th April 2024. Market News – Stock markets benefit from Dollar correction. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Technical buying, bargain hunting, and risk aversion helped Treasuries rally and unwind recent losses. Yields dropped from the recent 2024 highs. Asian stock markets strengthened, as the US Dollar corrected in the wake of comments from Japan’s currency chief Masato Kanda, who said G7 countries continue to stress that excessive swings and disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were harmful for economies. US Stockpiles expanded to 10-month high. The data overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented recent attack. President Joe Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum.   Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex stumbled, falling to 105.66 at the end of the day from the intraday high of 106.48. It lost ground against most of its G10 peers. There wasn’t much on the calendar to provide new direction. USDJPY lows retesting the 154 bottom! NOT an intervention yet. BoJ/MoF USDJPY intervention happens when there is more than 100+ pip move in seconds, not 50 pips. USOIL slumped by 3% near $82, as US crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels last week, hitting the highest level since last June, while gauges of fuel demand declined. Gold strengthened as the dollar weakened and bullion is trading at $2378.44 per ounce. Market Trends:   Wall Street closed in the red after opening with small corrective gains. The NASDAQ underperformed, slumping -1.15%, with the S&P500 -0.58% lower, while the Dow lost -0.12. The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng gained more than 1. European and US futures are finding buyers. A gauge of global chip stocks and AI bellwether Nvidia Corp. have both fallen into a technical correction. The TMSC reported its first profit rise in a year, after strong AI demand revived growth at the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. The main chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. recorded a 9% rise in net income, beating estimates. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
    • Date: 16th April 2024. Market News – Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows. Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected retail sales eliciting a broad sell off in the markets. Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a 50-50 chance. Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week’s declines amid the rise in yields. Investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation. There’s growing anxiety over earnings even after a big beat from Goldman Sachs. UK labor market data was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated – The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE. China grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon. Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook. Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Financial Markets Performance:   The US Dollar rallied to 106.19 after testing 106.25, gaining against JPY and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level. Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed. USOIL is flat at $85 per barrel. Market Trends:   Breaks of key technical levels exacerbated the sell off. Tech was the big loser with the NASDAQ plunging -1.79% to 15,885 while the S&P500 dropped -1.20% to 5061, with the Dow sliding -0.65% to 37,735. The S&P had the biggest 2-day sell off since March 2023. Nikkei and ASX lost -1.9% and -1.8% respectively, and the Hang Seng is down -2.1%. European bourses are down more than -1% and US futures are also in the red. CTA selling tsunami: “Just a few points lower CTAs will for the first time this year start selling in size, to add insult to injury, we are breaking major trend-lines in equities and the gamma stabilizer is totally gone.” Short term CTA threshold levels are kicking in big time according to GS. Medium term is 4873 (most important) while the long term level is at 4605. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 15th April 2024. Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict. However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict. New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70. The Yen dip against USD to 153.85. USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce. Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180. Market Trends:   Asian stock markets traded mixed, but European and US futures are slightly higher after a tough session on Friday and yields have picked up. Mainland China bourses outperformed overnight, after Beijing offered renewed regulatory support. The PBOC meanwhile left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged, while once again draining funds from the system. Nikkei slipped 1% to 39,114.19. On Friday, NASDAQ slumped -1.62% to 16,175, unwinding most of Thursday’s 1.68% jump to a new all-time high at 16,442. The S&P500 fell -1.46% and the Dow dropped 1.24%. Declines were broadbased with all 11 sectors of the S&P finishing in the red. JPMorgan Chase sank 6.5% despite reporting stronger profit in Q1. The nation’s largest bank gave a forecast for a key source of income this year that fell below Wall Street’s estimate, calling for only modest growth. Apple shipments drop by 10% in Q1. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • The morning of my last post I happened to glance over to the side and saw “...angst over the FOMC’s rate trajectory triggered a flight to safety, hence boosting the haven demand. “   http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/21621-hfmarkets-hfmcom-market-analysis-services/page/17/?tab=comments#comment-228522   I reacted, but didn’t take time to  respond then... will now --- HFBlogNews, I don’t know if you are simply aggregating the chosen narratives for the day or if it’s your own reporting... either way - “flight to safety”????  haven ?????  Re: “safety  - ”Those ‘solid rocks’ are getting so fragile a hit from a dandelion blowball might shatter them... like now nobody wants to buy longer term new issues at these rates...yet the financial media still follows the scripts... The imagery they pound day in and day out makes it look like the Fed knows what they’re doing to help ‘us’... They do know what they’re doing - but it certainly is not to help ‘us’... and it is not to ‘control’ inflation... And at some point in the not too distant future, the interest due will eat a huge portion of the ‘revenue’ Re: “haven” The defaults are coming ...  The US will not be the first to default... but it will certainly not be the very last to default !! ...Enough casual anti-white racism for the day  ... just sayin’
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