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TheNegotiator

Day Trading the E-mini Futures

By TheNegotiator, in E-mini Futures

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted
Josh, I find it hard to accept you don't know what a node is, as you speak about them all day everyday here on this thread. Why act so disingenuous?

 

Cory, I really wasn't sure what you meant. I assure you, no acting here my friend, though I see what you are talking about now. Blame it on gosu, he uses all sorts of funny words and after reading his stuff you never take for granted anything you read! :rofl:

 

Josh, my point is that I believe more is lost than gained by appreciating voluminous or rotational nodes as opposed to the activity which created them!

 

I understand now, and was probably thinking a bit too hard (and was tired) when I wrote this. Put another way, you are more concerned with the end result (price), than the activity (volume) which creates it -- is that a correct assessment, generally?

 

The action and activity of how the market got to where it's at from where it was is meaningful in my opinion. I've already told you how I consider all price activity equally meaningful no matter the volume so all that's left is to disagree on contextual understandings of how we individually view the market.

 

So in other words -- you do care that the market went up, down, up, consolidated, then up again, as opposed to simply going straight up-- but, you don't care about the amount of volume that it took to get it there. Yes?

 

I am going to write the second part of my response in another post since it is separate from this. I think it will agree quite well with what you have said so far. I hope you and all are having a wonderful weekend so far by the way! It's beautiful outside here, hope it is where you are too.

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted

Things seems to have gotten quite lively here...at least you will not fall asleep during the trading day..

 

I can certainly relate to LVN's being more important than HVN's since they represent aggressive activity. However, HVN's represent an agreed upon fair price...

 

Friday we tested MCVPOC at 1392.50..this is the dividing line between two micro-composities..a key level... Buyers were activated at that level when it was tested from above Friday morning since the market made vertical movement up into a new area where we should see it pause and potentially bracket... ACH (Josh)...

 

This market was very strong with only some profit taking going into the close...

 

Hope you are all doing well...stay alert, wear a helmet..

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted

Trading Plan: I wonder how many traders actually put a plan together for the next day..

 

We all have heard about trading plans but some are I'll buy when it's right and sell, etc...

 

I want to share just a bit about what I do... Mind you, I was for years one of those guys who would just show up and "do it."

 

Things really changed for me when I put a plan together, like a pilots flight plan. Areas of interest. What I would do when/if the market got to a specific number... areas to do business in...

 

I find that when I am in the noise that it is much more difficult... Sure if the day develops and I see continuation set-ups or rotations I can trade those but that, imho, is not where the real $ is...

 

The key is to get on the edge of a inter-day swing and try to align with a higher time-frame trader - the OTF. I also know that no matter what that my job is to execute the trade when it appears where I expect it to... not make it up as I go..

 

The trading day is about execution not planning... Obviously I create several hypothesis coming in and then adjust them based on Globex..then I know what I will do..

 

The only other variable is where we open in relation to the previous VA and what Opening Type it is which helps give an advanced peek on what day-type might evolve...

 

I'm not saying this is necessary to make consistent $ but with preparation, like a military strategist, my campaign is laid out and all I have to do is execute it... :2c:

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted

There is something about the futures market that has always "bothered" me a bit. I put that in quotes because it's not like it emotionally disturbs me, but rather it simply causes me to scratch my head a little bit. I have always been curious as to why we can see thousands of contracts furiously change hands within seconds, and the market moves very little if at all, as if one side is "guarding" a price level, YET a 5000 contract transaction in the overnight market will likely move the market at least 10 to 12 ticks, if not more. Alas, I don't have a 5000 lot to throw at the market to test it out, but would it even "work"? Maybe someday I can try it out.

 

What Cory is essentially saying (please correct me if I'm wrong, Cory) is that even though the overnight session trades about 20% of the RTH volume, the movement of the market and the importance of the prices traded is no less significant. This is because some major market around the world is open most of the time. At 7pm ET the ASX opens in Sydney. At 8pm the TSE opens in Tokyo. At 9pm it's the HKEX in Hong Kong. When Japan takes their break, HK stays open, and vice versa. At 3am the Frankfurt market opens (at 9am their time), and the LSE opens in London (at 8am their time). Meanwhile, Australia has closed at 1am, Tokyo at 2am, and Hong Kong closes shortly, at 4am, after the European markets have opened at 3am. Only after 11:30am is the US the only major market open in the world.

 

So, all of this global activity, along with the interbank currency market, is mirrored by markets which are not open at the time, like the US futures market. While the futures market is a derivative of the cash market, it's the cash market that "gaps" (though most NYSE stocks are still available to trade up until 8pm ET ) to match the futures market as a result of the premium differential. Likewise, when the exchange in Frankfurt closes at 11:30am ET, DAX futures still trade until 4pm ET, and they will roughly follow the movements of the only major market open, the US market. And even when the DAX futures stop trading at 4pm, they will gap when they open at 2am, to roughly mirror the movement in the other markets (Australia, Tokyo, and China, as mentioned previously).

 

And the premise is that even though very small volume trades from 4:30pm to 9:30am ET, this is a reflection, or representation of global sentiment, and thus the "memory" of the market is contained just as well in those price movements as the ones from the RTH hours.

 

Is this basically how you view things Cory?

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted
Tom, what's up buddy? I encourage you to post in the thread I created today as it's very related:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/12919-pre-open-plans-hypotheses.html#post148342

 

Well, I saw what you wrote.. looks like you're making trouble.... :confused:

 

I have a contrary opinion... but I understand why you might have your opinion. There is no right or wrong... or is there.... :rofl:.

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clmacdougall    11

clmacdougall
Posted
There is something about the futures market that has always "bothered" me a bit. I put that in quotes because it's not like it emotionally disturbs me, but rather it simply causes me to scratch my head a little bit. I have always been curious as to why we can see thousands of contracts furiously change hands within seconds, and the market moves very little if at all, as if one side is "guarding" a price level, YET a 5000 contract transaction in the overnight market will likely move the market at least 10 to 12 ticks, if not more. Alas, I don't have a 5000 lot to throw at the market to test it out, but would it even "work"? Maybe someday I can try it out.

 

What Cory is essentially saying (please correct me if I'm wrong, Cory) is that even though the overnight session trades about 20% of the RTH volume, the movement of the market and the importance of the prices traded is no less significant. This is because some major market around the world is open most of the time. At 7pm ET the ASX opens in Sydney. At 8pm the TSE opens in Tokyo. At 9pm it's the HKEX in Hong Kong. When Japan takes their break, HK stays open, and vice versa. At 3am the Frankfurt market opens (at 9am their time), and the LSE opens in London (at 8am their time). Meanwhile, Australia has closed at 1am, Tokyo at 2am, and Hong Kong closes shortly, at 4am, after the European markets have opened at 3am. Only after 11:30am is the US the only major market open in the world.

 

So, all of this global activity, along with the interbank currency market, is mirrored by markets which are not open at the time, like the US futures market. While the futures market is a derivative of the cash market, it's the cash market that "gaps" (though most NYSE stocks are still available to trade up until 8pm ET ) to match the futures market as a result of the premium differential. Likewise, when the exchange in Frankfurt closes at 11:30am ET, DAX futures still trade until 4pm ET, and they will roughly follow the movements of the only major market open, the US market. And even when the DAX futures stop trading at 4pm, they will gap when they open at 2am, to roughly mirror the movement in the other markets (Australia, Tokyo, and China, as mentioned previously).

 

And the premise is that even though very small volume trades from 4:30pm to 9:30am ET, this is a reflection, or representation of global sentiment, and thus the "memory" of the market is contained just as well in those price movements as the ones from the RTH hours.

 

Is this basically how you view things Cory?

 

I couldn't have said it better, Thanks Josh!

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted
Rather than concentrate on HiVol levels, I have found it more helpful to watch Low Volume nodes only. And the 30min bar's VPOC

 

It only took 488 pages for this to be pointed out.

 

But it's not true in all circumstances. Think about it.

 

If the market is balanced it is contained by ...(your answer here)

 

If the market is imbalanced it is seeking ...(your answer here)

 

If you view high and low volume areas in isolation, then I'd agree that low volume is often more obvious. But rarely by taking a basic approach do we obtain the best results. Looking harder and applying auction logic allows you to better judge situations where high(or low) volume areas act as good opportunities for point of entry.

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted

Todays trade was interesting Haver 2 shorts...first off open with test of MCVPOC & CLVN 91.25...target was 89 - 90.00 area Thursday IBH... outside shot to CHVN 87.75.

 

Took second short at test of OSL 95.75 & holding after scales for 89.00 area still...

 

Will look for long against 89.00 ish risk area dwn to bottom of chvn area to 86.50 ish...

 

Working on structure to manage runner as you know...

 

Feel free to ignore trades posted after the fact...just showing trade mgmt ideas... Scales on shorts Fri LOD, CLVN 91.25, target below..

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bakrob99    11

bakrob99
Posted
Looking harder and applying auction logic allows you to better judge situations where high(or low) volume areas act as good opportunities for point of entry.

 

I spent quite a few years entering at high volume (places) and found out it wasn't conducive to my financial well being. Much too choppy for me. After all, if the market likes the area it will trade there for a while. Rangebound - you can do well buying the low or selling the high if you get the breakout direction right.

 

I tracked CHVN's and CLVN's but decided a while ago to get rid of the high volume node lines on my chart to make it cleaner/clearer. I think I can easily see where the market has spent some time before using overlapping bars... and where it may again if it gets back to it.

 

Thanks for your reply.

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gosu    10

gosu
Posted
But it's not true in all circumstances. Think about it.

 

If the market is balanced it is contained by ...(your answer here)

 

If the market is imbalanced it is seeking ...(your answer here)

 

If you view high and low volume areas in isolation, then I'd agree that low volume is often more obvious. But rarely by taking a basic approach do we obtain the best results. Looking harder and applying auction logic allows you to better judge situations where high(or low) volume areas act as good opportunities for point of entry.

 

I don't see it as either/or. Does high volume tell you more than low volume? What about "middling" volume? I don't see any mention of "middling" volume.

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CYP    10

CYP
Posted
I don't see it as either/or. Does high volume tell you more than low volume? What about "middling" volume? I don't see any mention of "middling" volume.

 

Someone once told me to stop "middling" in other people's business...oh, wait...that was "meddling"...never mind...

 

:rofl:

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted
I spent quite a few years entering at high volume (places) and found out it wasn't conducive to my financial well being. Much too choppy for me. After all, if the market likes the area it will trade there for a while. Rangebound - you can do well buying the low or selling the high if you get the breakout direction right.

 

I tracked CHVN's and CLVN's but decided a while ago to get rid of the high volume node lines on my chart to make it cleaner/clearer. I think I can easily see where the market has spent some time before using overlapping bars... and where it may again if it gets back to it.

 

Thanks for your reply.

 

If you look at a composite you will see brackets of CHVN with CLVN in the middle back to CHVN on the edges... kind of like backwaeds "C" CHVN's at top & bottom of "C" and CLVN in the middle of the "C".

 

I find the CHVN's are important for defining where price was accepted... These tend to bracket CLVN's.. The market tends to move from one area of acceptance to the next...

 

I don't stand in front of CHVN's or any of the nodes but I do combine the CUM Nodes with the MiroComposites which give me a much clearer idea where the key levels to do business are..

 

In responce to your comment about CHVN areas being choppy, I agree.. One thing when trading arouind CHVN's there is typically a 3 pt rotational harmonic in ES which is often seen when trying to traverse CHVN...

 

I trade from 3 levels... High Level COmposite to MicroCOmposite then yesterdays profile and then taken into account todays Open type and where it is in relation to yesterdays VA and then after IB switch to today's development...

 

As N, mentioned..context is the key and the CHVN's are an important part of the context...

 

BTW, this is not a rebuttal but a response to your comment about CHVN's... I had also drawn a similar conclusion about them but have changed what I expect to get from them and how I trade them...

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted
You need a sense of humor to trade es today.

 

It seems one needs a sense of humor to trade ES at all. So willing to buy at 1410, 20 points straight up, and not willing to buy at 1405.. lol

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted
It seems one needs a sense of humor to trade ES at all. So willing to buy at 1410, 20 points straight up, and not willing to buy at 1405.. lol

 

Take for example this fall off the cliff into the close. The market is not searching for value, or any of that really. It's just screwing as many people on both sides as it possibly can. There is no logic or searching for value to it. Trap the shorts, and then when they stop out above 1410, trap all the longs who are trying to buy back after such "strength" from the market. All bull shit, sorry, but why else does a market do this? It ain't what it used to be...

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bakrob99    11

bakrob99
Posted
Take for example this fall off the cliff into the close. The market is not searching for value, or any of that really. It's just screwing as many people on both sides as it possibly can. There is no logic or searching for value to it. Trap the shorts, and then when they stop out above 1410, trap all the longs who are trying to buy back after such "strength" from the market. All bull shit, sorry, but why else does a market do this? It ain't what it used to be...

 

To me it was longs closing out their trades somewhat disappointed that it didn't hold up for more move to the upside. Nothing weird about it at all. If it's EASY UP ... then it can be EASY DOWN too. Very easy for daytraders to hold longs and they have to exit before the close. So around noon EST the High Tick extreme signalled the end of the party.

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted (edited)

Today's ES range was 20.5 which fits right in... We settled 1400.25 a key CLVN...

 

After today's action it seems a day of rest is in order... maybe an inside day... I know I need a day of rest after today...

 

It took me by surprise.. Initially I was looking for a rotational auction kind of day with a slight upward bias.. I got long right off the open, got some scales and exited my long at 1398.00 NVPOC... felt pretty good about it until it kept going... but that was my plan..

 

Saw one spot to get long against 1400.75 CLVN but took a pass because of risk... Twiddled my thumbs and then got short against 1409.50... with stop 2 ticks over MCHVN 1411.25...got stopped at HOD :crap:

 

Tried a long at just under IBH... ended up losing 2 ticks there. All together when the dust settled I had a small losing day... The main reason for the loses was not getting scales on my last 2 trades.. :helloooo: I try to get risk neutral asap...

 

Fortunately, while days like this are greed inspiring and challenge one's discipline, I got away unscathed... Many traders will chase this kind of day and pay the price for it.. The impulse to "not miss out" is very strong - and can be costly.

 

A little rotation might have been nice, though to get on... do you think? :angry:

 

Hope you all did ok..while getting a nice piece of days like this can be exciting and profitable, I suspect most Day traders lose $..maybe I'm biased - hope you guys banked some $...

Edited by roztom

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tortoise    10

tortoise
Posted

R3 didn't hold, so ES fell back to and closed roughly at R2, just a bit under last week's high. A beautifully ambiguous finish.

 

Today's action was "unexpected" only insofar as it was out-of-character for markets in this QE era, where strong trends almost never fade, let alone reverse hard, in the afternoon. But it was a tactically savvy close, given the uncertainty surrounding economic data to come this week.

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gosu    10

gosu
Posted
Today's ES range was 20.5 which fits right in... We settled 1400.25 a key CLVN...

 

After today's action it seems a day of rest is in order... maybe an inside day... I know I need a day of rest after today...

 

It took me by surprise.. I got long right off the open, got some scales and exited my long at 1398.00 NVPOC... felt pretty good about it until it kept going... but that was my plan..

 

Saw one spot to get long against 1400.75 CLVN but took a pass because of risk... Twiddled my thumbs and then got short against 1409.50... with stop 2 ticks over MCHVN 1411.25...got stopped at HOD :crap:

 

Tried a long at just under IBH... ended up losing 2 ticks there. All together when the dust settled I had a small losing day... The main reason for the loses was not getting scales on my last 2 trades.. :helloooo: I try to get risk neutral asap...

 

Fortunately, while days like this are greed inspiring and challenge one's discipline, I got away unscathed... Many traders will chase this kind of day and pay the price for it.. The impulse to "not miss out" is very strong - and can be costly.

 

A little rotation might have been nice, though to get on... do you think? :angry:

 

Hope you all did ok..while getting a nice piece of days like this can be exciting and profitable, I suspect most Day traders lose $..maybe I'm biased - hope you guys banked some $...

 

Who would have thunk that an ISM report would fuel such a move? It was just time for the BO and the most difficult part of the entire morning was to accept it and do my job as a good partner.

 

It could have been more challenging had I been on the wrong side and not sidelined. I saw the continuation of yesterday's lateral at the cash open and began picturing breakfast at Hof's Hut. I see the ISM at 7 approaching and ES at lower range of the lateral; and I'm thinking BO south, FBO back into range, range bound into midday, so a nice breakfast ahead. The consequence was that I was caught flat footed on the BO north and entered the party late. But the last spurt going into midday on the 8:50 bar was unexpected and a joy to see. The retrace at the end of the bar was no concern at all, and I offered out at 11.25 as the bar completed. I could have made it a reversal order but I'm not as hardcore as I used to be.

 

Was this an especially difficult AM to trade? I don't think so, but it would have been fun to reverse out of the lateral had I been short going into the report. The 5m volumes ruled that out for me.

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted
Who would have thunk that an ISM report would fuel such a move? It was just time for the BO and the most difficult part of the entire morning was to accept it and do my job as a good partner.

 

It could have been more challenging had I been on the wrong side and not sidelined. I saw the continuation of yesterday's lateral at the cash open and began picturing breakfast at Hof's Hut. I see the ISM at 7 approaching and ES at lower range of the lateral; and I'm thinking BO south, FBO back into range, range bound into midday, so a nice breakfast ahead. The consequence was that I was caught flat footed on the BO north and entered the party late. But the last spurt going into midday on the 8:50 bar was unexpected and a joy to see. The retrace at the end of the bar was no concern at all, and I offered out at 11.25 as the bar completed. I could have made it a reversal order but I'm not as hardcore as I used to be.

 

Was this an especially difficult AM to trade? I don't think so, but it would have been fun to reverse out of the lateral had I been short going into the report. The 5m volumes ruled that out for me.

 

I wish I knew what you were talking about but I'm glad it worked out ok for you... :confused:

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gosu    10

gosu
Posted
I wish I knew what you were talking about but I'm glad it worked out ok for you... :confused:

 

Hi Tom,

 

Here's the Cliff's Notes version: Saw the lateral, was surprised by the breakout, entered long late, took the bonus at the end (of AM).

 

If it makes you feel any better, I don't know your acronyms and felt the same about your post. I did see that you thought today was difficult to trade for daytraders, and earlier joshdance posted that today the market was out to screw everyone. Regardless of P&Ls, I had a different assessment.

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted
Hi Tom,

 

Here's the Cliff's Notes version: Saw the lateral, was surprised by the breakout, entered long late, took the bonus at the end (of AM).

 

If it makes you feel any better, I don't know your acronyms and felt the same about your post. I did see that you thought today was difficult to trade for daytraders, and earlier joshdance posted that today the market was out to screw everyone. Regardless of P&Ls, I had a different assessment.

 

Glad you had a good day. I am not a breakout trader, since it doesn't usually align wit my risk management... I am a continuation trader after a breakout which is why I commented that there really wasn't any rotation so I had no entry. Glad you had a set up to capitalize on yesterday..

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bakrob99    11

bakrob99
Posted
I am a continuation trader after a breakout which is why I commented that there really wasn't any rotation so I had no entry. Glad you had a set up to capitalize on yesterday..

 

Market action since Jan 1 has been tough for traders looking for pullbacks. Once a move is underway, it keeps going having skipped past the traders who would be getting in on pullbacks, and using the fuel of the stops of the responsive traders to keep going.

 

IMO, you have to figure out a methid for getting in the trends that is different than "normal" market behaviour because, in this mareket, by the time a pullback happens the move is over.

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      Date: 19th April 2024. Weekly Commodity Market Update: Oil Prices Correct and Supply Concerns Persist.   The ongoing developments in the Middle East sparked a wave of risk aversion and fueled supply concerns and investors headed for safety. Hopes for imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve diminish while attention is now turning towards the demand outlook. The Gold price hit a high of $2417.89 per ounce overnight. Sentiment has already calmed down again and bullion is trading at $2376.50 per ounce as haven flows ease. Oil prices initially moved higher as concern over escalating tensions with the WTI contract hit a session high of $85.508 per barrel overnight, before correcting to currently $81.45 per barrel. Oil Prices Under Pressure Amid Middle East Tensions Last week, commodity indexes showed little movement, with Oil prices undergoing a slight correction. Meanwhile, Gold reached yet another record high, mirroring the upward trend in cocoa prices. Once again today, USOil prices experienced a correction and has remained under pressure, retesting the 50-day EMA at $81.00 as we moving into the weekend. Hence, despite the Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran, sentiments stabilized following reports suggesting a measured response aimed at avoiding further escalation. Brent crude futures witnessed a more than 4% leap, driven by concerns over potential disruptions to oil supplies in the Middle East, only to subsequently erase all gains. Similarly with USOIL, UKOIL hovers just below $87 per barrel, marginally below Thursday’s closing figures. Nevertheless, volatility is expected to continue in the market as several potential risks loom:   Disruption to the Strait of Hormuz: The possibility of Iran disrupting navigation through the vital shipping lane, is still in play. The Strait of Hormuz serves as the Persian Gulf’s primary route to international waters, with approximately 21 million barrels of oil passing through daily. Recent events, including Iran’s seizure of an Israel-linked container ship, underscore the geopolitical sensitivity of the region. Tougher Sanctions on Iran: Analysts speculate that the US may impose stricter sanctions on Iranian oil exports or intensify enforcement of existing restrictions. With global oil consumption reaching 102 million barrels per day, Iran’s production of 3.3 million barrels remains significant. Recent actions targeting Venezuelan oil highlight the potential for increased pressure on Iranian exports. OPEC Output Increases: Despite the desire for higher prices, OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have constrained output in recent years. However, sustained crude prices above $100 per barrel could prompt concerns about demand and incentivize increased production. The OPEC may opt to boost oil output should tensions escalate further and prices surge. Ukraine Conflict: Amidst the focus on the Middle East, markets overlooking Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Potential retaliatory strikes by Kyiv on Russian oil infrastructure could impact exports, adding further complexity to global oil markets.   Technical Analysis USOIL is marking one of the steepest weekly declines witnessed this year after a brief period of consolidation. The breach below the pivotal support level of 84.00, coupled with the descent below the mid of the 4-month upchannel, signals a possible shift in market sentiment towards a bearish trend reversal. Adding to the bearish outlook are indications such as the downward slope in the RSI. However, the asset still hold above the 50-day EMA which coincides also with the mid of last year’s downleg, with key support zone at $80.00-$81.00. If it breaks this support zone, the focus may shift towards the 200-day EMA and 38.2% Fib. level at $77.60-$79.00. Conversely, a rejection of the $81 level and an upside potential could see the price returning back to $84.00. A break of the latter could trigger the attention back to the December’s resistance, situated around $86.60. A breakthrough above this level could ignite a stronger rally towards the $89.20-$90.00 zone. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past perfrmance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • HFblogNews
      HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

      By HFblogNews · Posted

      Date: 18th April 2024. Market News – Stock markets benefit from Dollar correction. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Technical buying, bargain hunting, and risk aversion helped Treasuries rally and unwind recent losses. Yields dropped from the recent 2024 highs. Asian stock markets strengthened, as the US Dollar corrected in the wake of comments from Japan’s currency chief Masato Kanda, who said G7 countries continue to stress that excessive swings and disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were harmful for economies. US Stockpiles expanded to 10-month high. The data overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented recent attack. President Joe Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum.   Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex stumbled, falling to 105.66 at the end of the day from the intraday high of 106.48. It lost ground against most of its G10 peers. There wasn’t much on the calendar to provide new direction. USDJPY lows retesting the 154 bottom! NOT an intervention yet. BoJ/MoF USDJPY intervention happens when there is more than 100+ pip move in seconds, not 50 pips. USOIL slumped by 3% near $82, as US crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels last week, hitting the highest level since last June, while gauges of fuel demand declined. Gold strengthened as the dollar weakened and bullion is trading at $2378.44 per ounce. Market Trends:   Wall Street closed in the red after opening with small corrective gains. The NASDAQ underperformed, slumping -1.15%, with the S&P500 -0.58% lower, while the Dow lost -0.12. The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng gained more than 1. European and US futures are finding buyers. A gauge of global chip stocks and AI bellwether Nvidia Corp. have both fallen into a technical correction. The TMSC reported its first profit rise in a year, after strong AI demand revived growth at the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. The main chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. recorded a 9% rise in net income, beating estimates. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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      By HFblogNews · Posted

      Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
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      By HFblogNews · Posted

      Date: 16th April 2024. Market News – Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows. Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected retail sales eliciting a broad sell off in the markets. Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a 50-50 chance. Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week’s declines amid the rise in yields. Investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation. There’s growing anxiety over earnings even after a big beat from Goldman Sachs. UK labor market data was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated – The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE. China grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon. Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook. Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Financial Markets Performance:   The US Dollar rallied to 106.19 after testing 106.25, gaining against JPY and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level. Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed. USOIL is flat at $85 per barrel. Market Trends:   Breaks of key technical levels exacerbated the sell off. Tech was the big loser with the NASDAQ plunging -1.79% to 15,885 while the S&P500 dropped -1.20% to 5061, with the Dow sliding -0.65% to 37,735. The S&P had the biggest 2-day sell off since March 2023. Nikkei and ASX lost -1.9% and -1.8% respectively, and the Hang Seng is down -2.1%. European bourses are down more than -1% and US futures are also in the red. CTA selling tsunami: “Just a few points lower CTAs will for the first time this year start selling in size, to add insult to injury, we are breaking major trend-lines in equities and the gamma stabilizer is totally gone.” Short term CTA threshold levels are kicking in big time according to GS. Medium term is 4873 (most important) while the long term level is at 4605. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • HFblogNews
      HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

      By HFblogNews · Posted

      Date: 15th April 2024. Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict. However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict. New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70. The Yen dip against USD to 153.85. USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce. Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180. Market Trends:   Asian stock markets traded mixed, but European and US futures are slightly higher after a tough session on Friday and yields have picked up. Mainland China bourses outperformed overnight, after Beijing offered renewed regulatory support. The PBOC meanwhile left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged, while once again draining funds from the system. Nikkei slipped 1% to 39,114.19. On Friday, NASDAQ slumped -1.62% to 16,175, unwinding most of Thursday’s 1.68% jump to a new all-time high at 16,442. The S&P500 fell -1.46% and the Dow dropped 1.24%. Declines were broadbased with all 11 sectors of the S&P finishing in the red. JPMorgan Chase sank 6.5% despite reporting stronger profit in Q1. The nation’s largest bank gave a forecast for a key source of income this year that fell below Wall Street’s estimate, calling for only modest growth. Apple shipments drop by 10% in Q1. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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