Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

StevenSJC

Why the S&P E-Mini Stinks

Recommended Posts

I know it's probably sacrilege around here to insult the vaunted S&P e-mini but I'm willing to bet it blows up more traders than any futures market. More than any market I would bet outside of forex which typically pulls in the lowest common denominator (read: get rich quick crowd)

 

There was a really good article in this months S&C magazine that continues to demonstrate this point.

 

The S&P e-mini is hard to trade. You are competing against mega institutions and volume. It's very difficult at times to get a fill unless price moves through your price. It is quite subjective because your system might hit target but you won't so what do you do? I find it creates all kinds of questions and those freakin 0.25 ticks are ridiculous. I'm sure it's great for others but those type of ticks (instead of 0.10) are not great for us traders.

 

The magazine article made the point that sure, the S&P e-mini has great volumes. Incredible volumes. You could easily execute 50 contracts. Which makes me laugh since 98% of traders out there will be lucky to get to 2 contracts. It's like people wanting to make sure that the tax rates at the highest bracket are low because someday they'll be there. Yeah right. Who cares if this market can execute 50 contracts in a heartbeat. You'll never do it.

 

More important is the chart that showed Average Yearly Tick Movement across all the major index futures. Lowest rank? The S&P e-mini vs. the Dow, Nasdaq, Russell small and mid-cap.

 

When you factor in dollar value so average annual dollar movement the Russell e-Mini easily comes out on top? Lagging way behind? The S&P e-mini.

 

If more people would start trading the Russell vs. the S&P I guarantee failure rates while high, would be lower.

 

Trying to jump in and trade amongst the big boys in a market that really doesn't have great range, that forces a lot of subjectivity due to the 0.25 ticks, doesn't lead in any major category but volume which you'll never need or use to me is a just a lure for trading suckers.

 

I know the best of the best here on TL will disagree. And I'm not saying it cannot be traded successfully but if more traders getting going would not chase the crowd in the S&P you'd stand a much better chance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

trading is like playing golf

you do your own thing, and the big boys do their own thing

you play against yourself, not anybody else

the score are yours, and yours alone

the mistake are yours, and yours alone

you are your own best friend, and worst enemy.

you can blame it on the club,

you can blame it on the ball,

but ultimately... who cares, but yourself.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It seems like you know a lot about es and given what you know about es, you should be able to take that knowledge and trade it. If it means that the best you can do is not trade it, then so be it. That would be very valuable information.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are probably way more traders who are also successful trading the E-mini S&P500 too. There are just way more traders in it period. If you don't like it, that's fine too. Just find a product which you 'like' and trade it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I know it's probably sacrilege around here to insult the vaunted S&P e-mini but . . . .

The S&P e-mini is hard to trade. . . . . It's very difficult at times to get a fill unless price moves through your price.

 

You are absolutely right. I agree with you. I don't care if you insult the S&P e-mini. It is kind of strange that some people rush in to defend trading when someone vents their frustrations. Does the market need defending? Is the market such a delicate, kind and gentle soul that it needs to be defended by people? I don't think so.

 

And then there are those people who will offer you their advice, because out of the goodness of their heart, they just want to help you. Yah! Right. . . . Like trading is a goodwill industry full of people just trying to help each other. I don't think so!

 

So why would anyone take it personally if someone else criticizes the market or the trading industry? Why would they take it personally?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes very bizarre comments I must say.

 

It's as if I offended somebodies child :)

 

I'm just saying, make the case why traders who come into the emini futures world should trade the ES. Besides the fact that everyone seems to do it - and the rooms/signal services all seem to cater to it - because that's where the crowd goes.

 

I think if I can get someone to read this who is just starting out to NOT jump head over heels into the ES first it's worth the battering I'm sure I will take.

 

Regardless, still waiting to hear why the ES is factually superior to other choices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think everyone is doing it

I know lots of people who trade other instruments

but the newbies seems to be attracted to it without question

 

about your comment that the volume is high...

sure it is high, but bear in mind that a lot of the volumes are ins-and-outs with nothing more than a tick's worth of gain or loss. A lot of the volume are not from traders, but from hedgers. They couldn't care less if the market is going up or down, they are only looking at the differentials.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wouldnt look at a market based on $ range in a day. A traders first priority should be not to lose money. The greedy look first at how much they can make (thus your FX comment which I agree with). Therefore, you should be looking (imo) to make regular, consistent amounts of money. Then scale up in size.

 

The good thing about ES is that it has less tendency to go careering through levels, only to reverse on a dime like ES, CL, 6E do. It does happen sometimes of course, and indeed these moves are heaven for some anyway - free money if you know whats happening.

 

This means ES can be used as a benchmark to see if the other contract (ER, YM. NQ etc) is real or not.

 

Just some thoughts.

 

Generally, 'the pro's' tend to spread es against something similar - ym, nq, cash, spy, big s&p etc. in fact, the reason es has .25 tics was to create an arb between sp & es.

 

i agree with the original premise. new traders should trade ags or FI IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Making consistent returns daytrading the ES is a lot harder than most think... in fact it might be the hardest game in town but for some reason it's what the mayority of internet forum readers want to do.

maybe it's partially about being a badass ("I'm an S&P trader") but it's much harder than trading has to be. The S&P futures are usually one of the most random and noisy markets out there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well clearly I am biased....I make a nice living in this and other markets and for me...while it requires focus and preparation, once you have a viable systematic approach it is very straightfoward..

 

The original comment seems appropriate in that it reflects the retail trader's inability to find a way to "make sense of" and to recognize opportunity in this market. This is very common in persons who are inexperienced or who lack skills or suitable background...as an aside...one can fill these deficits fairly quickly if they are motivated...having trained people to do this, I can say with confidence that a motivated person can find success if they apply themselves..

 

Personally I like the S&P, bond and currency markets about equally...and once you have a workable system, (using supply/demand as a basis) they offer nice opportunity for profit...

 

Whether an individual person believes that or not is not of particular concern to me, but I do empathize with those who might be having trouble...it can be frustrating...

 

Edit

 

By the way, if the original poster wants to check out a different approach, they might want to read my thread titled "an institutional look at the S&P Futures"....If I can be of help...just PM me..

 

Best of luck to all

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Okay steve, enough of plugging your own threads already!! Lol. The ES is difficult for noobs because they are told to go for a liquid market and the ES is just that. But when they see all the action and mistake it for trading opportunities, they inevitably get sucked in and many do lose again and again. However, it is a solid and liquid market, meaning if you have an effective strategy, then you can scale up in size very well. Also, it is quite a technical market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I know it's probably sacrilege around here to insult the vaunted S&P e-mini but I'm willing to bet it blows up more traders than any futures market.

 

 

It doesn't matter whether emini sp is hard to trade. Futures/commodity market overall is hard to trade which is why more than 90% of small traders lose in a "Spectacular Fashion." They just lose!

 

1 out of 100 small traders will make out in this game and trade for a living.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Okay steve, enough of plugging your own threads already!! Lol. The ES is difficult for noobs because they are told to go for a liquid market and the ES is just that. But when they see all the action and mistake it for trading opportunities, they inevitably get sucked in and many do lose again and again. However, it is a solid and liquid market, meaning if you have an effective strategy, then you can scale up in size very well. Also, it is quite a technical market.

 

What an interesting comment....Perhaps you could outline what you mean by "an effective strategy"? In my threads (the ones you prefer I don't "plug") I outline a method that I have used for over 10 years...I guess I have to remind myself that there is always something new to learn....by all means please continue your thought.....

Edited by steve46

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What an interesting comment....Perhaps you could outline what you mean by "an effective strategy"? In my threads (the ones you prefer I don't "plug") I outline a method that I have used for over 10 years...I guess I have to remind myself that there is always something new to learn....by all means please continue your thought.....

 

 

here is an advice why emini sp is hard to trade:

 

1) Under capitalized. The minimum to trade in the futures market is $100K and begin 1 contract. if begin less than $100K, it gets harder to trade. After all, we are dealing and trading with margin. it is not like stocks where u buy and own it.

2) Of course u know the funds are controlling the es and are winning while more than 90% of small traders are losing, If u want to win the game, join the house. Why stick with more than 90% of losers group.

 

 

More to come.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What an interesting comment....Perhaps you could outline what you mean by "an effective strategy"? In my threads (the ones you prefer I don't "plug") I outline a method that I have used for over 10 years...I guess I have to remind myself that there is always something new to learn....by all means please continue your thought.....

 

Hmm. I'm not entirely sure it needs elaborating steve. If you have a profitable method, you can do it with more contracts in the ES. I am sure your strategy has worked superbly well for you for 10 years plus. However, I wasn't commenting on your strategy. Just that although the ES is a very difficult market for noobs, it is also a very good market once it's learned.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would argue that the ES is the most technical instrument there is, that being said, you are competing against the best traders in the world. My second point would be that most hedge funds use the ES as a hedge for their long stock positions, to put it simply.

 

First published in the Brady report It's the consensus among many traders that the October 1987 crash was caused in large part due to this hedging known as portfolio insurance, selling large amounts of futures contracts against their long positions.

 

Will all that, I still love the ES, 2010 was a fantastic year for trading it. 2011, not so much. The Euro is a much wider instrument to trade in that the moves are still technical and it moves in price swings equivalent to 25 ES points a day. If I had one instrument to trade right now, it'd be the Euro Futures.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One problem that I see is that many newer traders are trying to use scalping methods on the ES, and there is often so much back and forth arbitrage movement that they often get stopped out. It can get pretty noisy with all the program trading -- robots in a tug of war. But if trend following with a large enough wiggle room for an intelligent stop, then it can be a much more effective instrument. With that being said, I still prefer the NQ for its tick size, smoother movement and less arbitrage activity. And some days much better range as well.

 

As someone trained in both international economics and geopolitics, I really prefer the contracts that have much to do with the world economy in a more direct way, i.e., the currencies and quasi-currencies. I too prefer the currency futures over indexes, where I can apply my education more effectively. The 6A, 6B, 6C, 6E, 6J, 6S, all of them can be very lucrative at their own times. And GC and CL have times where the trends are amazing. Nice that we futures traders have so many options. I am very grateful for this amazing market and wouldn't trade it for any other!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
One problem that I see is that many newer traders are trying to use scalping methods on the ES, and there is often so much back and forth arbitrage movement that they often get stopped out. It can get pretty noisy with all the program trading -- robots in a tug of war. But if trend following with a large enough wiggle room for an intelligent stop, then it can be a much more effective instrument.

 

Yeah, that is a good point. To add to it, not only do the noobs often have a totally unsuitable internet connection, but they are competing with algos which have the fastest connection right next to an exchange and they have near zero reaction time for their decision-execution time. It's just a big exciting fruit machine basically for these guys!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Okay, lets see if we can get past the urban myth about automated execution (among other things)

 

First, automated execution is not new and is just a part of this market. It affect all markets not just the NYSE so if any of you want to become professionals you are going to have to deal with it....not just the newbies...

Second...it really doesn't affect new traders much...what really causes new traders problems is their own ignorance and the fact that for the most part newbies are unwilling to take the time to get a decent education about how the markets work...and frankly reading all the misconceptions about automated trading here doesn't help..

Now I am not here to put on a seminar but what I am willing to say is this....once you understand what automated trading is about, and how it is implemented, actually you can USE that knowledge to position yourself in such a way as to benefit from it...for example in my classes we position ourselves in front of cirtical time periods when we expect automated execution to occur...when we are correct, that automated activity is the "fuel" that propels the market to our profit target...the point is that knowing when to trade...and when to stand aside is important...and newbies (and apparently newbies aren't the only ones) haven't done the homework necessary to know how to act in this regard.

So Negotiator (sir or madam) here's my offer to you...if you want I will make it possible for you to observe and see how it is done...no strings, no concern on my part either way...that way you can make an informed judgement about this subject and perhaps come away with something of value for your own trading...

let me know..

Best Regards

Steve

Edited by steve46

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Steve, thank you for your kind offer to show me the way. However, I am quite happy the way I trade and make money doing so. Not to say you are ineffective trading the methods you use. But what you are talking about is not the point I was making. I have seen noob traders with slow computers and appalling connections lose lots of money down to naive attempts at scalping the market. It isn't the main reason they lose. But it happens, period. I agree with you that algos also operate in most other markets, but I would add that the intensity is just not the same. But hey, you can agree or disagree with me! That's the beauty of debate. The key thing about it I would say is that at some point even if you have an awesome amount of knowledge, you learn something.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well to return your "serve"...lets be clear...I certainly do not claim to have exclusive access to "the way" to trade...its a big world and there are numerous ways to participate in the markets.

 

Also I hope never to be too proud to learn something new...one reason I stay with this is that I can often learn new things or find new concepts that serve as a point of departure for my own research.

 

With respect to high frequency execution..those programs largely exist to obtain what the industry calls a "peekaboo" look at order flow just prior to execution. Those who participate in these activities may deny that, but in reality that is just what they are doing...It requires special data feeds, high speed equipment as you have suggested and co-location. Also it requires a special type of software program to evaluate the data stream and put in place a logic driven basket execution to take advantage of the information obtained. The reason I suggest that these actions have little effect on retail traders is that they are completed in milliseconds and the effect is similar to either a "Liquidnet" pool transaction or "program A" reportable block transaction..The primary difference is that these participants are looking for incremental profits (often taking profit on fractions of a point) not a significant move in price.....and for the most part these activities are buffered amongst the vast volume of both pit executions and automated off site programs...in essence it all blends together...and frankly these transactions have very little effect on intraday market movement.

 

Finally, one can get a quick look at some of the automated executions by simply putting $TICKI chart in place on your screen (assuming you have Esignal as your data provider)...tomorrow for example you will probably see executions go off at 6:40am and again at 7am. These transactions can be seen whent the reading on the chart goes to 25 or more..

 

Well I don't want to bore people with too many details...so please do carry on as you were.

 

Good luck to all in the markets

Edited by steve46

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you algo junkies want to get a real hard on, look at:

 

Unified Latency Management for Financial Markets - Corvil

Complex Event Processing, Event Stream Processing, StreamBase Streaming Platform

 

While you tug yourselves off, I'm gunna make me some real coin trading lean hogs, corn, soy beans, all the dull boring stuff that only the farmers trade. Candy from a baby springs to mind.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder how many hypertraders of the ES actually make money? Any here? In my experience at least, the ES seems to have more stop-running back and forth arbitrage due to how many forces use it for that purpose, at least compared to say the NQ. When I compare the two side by side the NQ is often less herky-jerky. And yet the internet is full of advice as to how to scalp the ES for a point here and there. Scalping noise is a very, very tough game, even with fast computer connections, and if some of these ES scalpers would be much more patient and wait for pullbacks and clearer entries, based on supply and demand, they might be able to ride some nice waves for several points at a time with less chance of getting stopped out. Some trade the ES 20 times a day or more, but with transaction costs and chasing random activity, no wonder so many give up in disgust. Some few out there are brilliant scalpers of the ES, and my hat is off to them. But for most traders trying to make money with this very liquid contract, it might be better to patiently trade the two or three times a day when the probabilities are more clearly in your favor.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I wonder how many hypertraders of the ES actually make money? Any here? In my experience at least, the ES seems to have more stop-running back and forth arbitrage due to how many forces use it for that purpose, at least compared to say the NQ. When I compare the two side by side the NQ is often less herky-jerky. And yet the internet is full of advice as to how to scalp the ES for a point here and there. Scalping noise is a very, very tough game, even with fast computer connections, and if some of these ES scalpers would be much more patient and wait for pullbacks and clearer entries, based on supply and demand, they might be able to ride some nice waves for several points at a time with less chance of getting stopped out. Some trade the ES 20 times a day or more, but with transaction costs and chasing random activity, no wonder so many give up in disgust. Some few out there are brilliant scalpers of the ES, and my hat is off to them. But for most traders trying to make money with this very liquid contract, it might be better to patiently trade the two or three times a day when the probabilities are more clearly in your favor.

 

Your point is valid..I think very few people really think about what it takes to profitably scalp any market much less the S&P Futures...unless you have a way to cut costs (all costs including commission) down significantly, it isn't economically feasible...In my opinion, retail traders are drawn to scalping because they cannot tolerate the physical tension associated with holding a position...they think that because they can ring the register a couple of times quickly that

THAT constitutes a viable strategy...it doesn't....to overcome expenses one has to make sure that they manage risk very carefully and on top of that you have to find a way to be bigger when you win (bet sizing) than when you lose.....there is a way to do it but most retail traders don't take the time to learn....so they are doomed from the start...its part of the reason so many fail or quit....and if I may...that is why trade rooms and the poor folks who participate in them....usually end up the same way....with a net loss...there's more to this business than setups....and once a person figures it out they have only a few choices...either learn to manage risk and to bet properly or, go find another hobby...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
In my opinion, retail traders are drawn to scalping because they cannot tolerate the physical tension associated with holding a position

 

I agree, and in a way for some, this scalping activity can be an attempt at escaping the necessity of risk management, only holding a position for a minute eliminates the need for patience, which is a key part of risk management. Risk management or uncertainty management is what trading is all about, and until one totally surrenders to uncertainty and makes peace with it, the emotional and physical tension associated with holding a position is unbearable.

 

BTW, your recent points elsewhere regarding supply and demand were much appreciated and excellent, and I personally am focusing more of my effort on patiently observing supply and demand, understanding it through observing price action as opposed to relying on market profile or any technical indicators. So many traders try to make money with such complicated charts, and I appreciate elegance and simplicity in trading.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
    • Date: 16th April 2024. Market News – Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows. Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected retail sales eliciting a broad sell off in the markets. Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a 50-50 chance. Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week’s declines amid the rise in yields. Investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation. There’s growing anxiety over earnings even after a big beat from Goldman Sachs. UK labor market data was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated – The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE. China grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon. Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook. Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Financial Markets Performance:   The US Dollar rallied to 106.19 after testing 106.25, gaining against JPY and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level. Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed. USOIL is flat at $85 per barrel. Market Trends:   Breaks of key technical levels exacerbated the sell off. Tech was the big loser with the NASDAQ plunging -1.79% to 15,885 while the S&P500 dropped -1.20% to 5061, with the Dow sliding -0.65% to 37,735. The S&P had the biggest 2-day sell off since March 2023. Nikkei and ASX lost -1.9% and -1.8% respectively, and the Hang Seng is down -2.1%. European bourses are down more than -1% and US futures are also in the red. CTA selling tsunami: “Just a few points lower CTAs will for the first time this year start selling in size, to add insult to injury, we are breaking major trend-lines in equities and the gamma stabilizer is totally gone.” Short term CTA threshold levels are kicking in big time according to GS. Medium term is 4873 (most important) while the long term level is at 4605. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 15th April 2024. Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict. However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict. New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70. The Yen dip against USD to 153.85. USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce. Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180. Market Trends:   Asian stock markets traded mixed, but European and US futures are slightly higher after a tough session on Friday and yields have picked up. Mainland China bourses outperformed overnight, after Beijing offered renewed regulatory support. The PBOC meanwhile left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged, while once again draining funds from the system. Nikkei slipped 1% to 39,114.19. On Friday, NASDAQ slumped -1.62% to 16,175, unwinding most of Thursday’s 1.68% jump to a new all-time high at 16,442. The S&P500 fell -1.46% and the Dow dropped 1.24%. Declines were broadbased with all 11 sectors of the S&P finishing in the red. JPMorgan Chase sank 6.5% despite reporting stronger profit in Q1. The nation’s largest bank gave a forecast for a key source of income this year that fell below Wall Street’s estimate, calling for only modest growth. Apple shipments drop by 10% in Q1. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • The morning of my last post I happened to glance over to the side and saw “...angst over the FOMC’s rate trajectory triggered a flight to safety, hence boosting the haven demand. “   http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/21621-hfmarkets-hfmcom-market-analysis-services/page/17/?tab=comments#comment-228522   I reacted, but didn’t take time to  respond then... will now --- HFBlogNews, I don’t know if you are simply aggregating the chosen narratives for the day or if it’s your own reporting... either way - “flight to safety”????  haven ?????  Re: “safety  - ”Those ‘solid rocks’ are getting so fragile a hit from a dandelion blowball might shatter them... like now nobody wants to buy longer term new issues at these rates...yet the financial media still follows the scripts... The imagery they pound day in and day out makes it look like the Fed knows what they’re doing to help ‘us’... They do know what they’re doing - but it certainly is not to help ‘us’... and it is not to ‘control’ inflation... And at some point in the not too distant future, the interest due will eat a huge portion of the ‘revenue’ Re: “haven” The defaults are coming ...  The US will not be the first to default... but it will certainly not be the very last to default !! ...Enough casual anti-white racism for the day  ... just sayin’
    • Date: 12th April 2024. Producer Inflation On The Rise, But Will Earnings Hold Demand Steady?     Producer inflation rose slightly less than previous expectations, but the annual figure continues to rise. The annual PPI rose to 2.1% and the Core PPI rose to 2.4%. The NASDAQ and SNP500 end the day higher, but the Dow Jones continues to struggle. This morning earnings kick off with the banking sector including JP Morgan, BlackRock and Wells Fargo. All 3 stocks trade higher during pre-trading hours. The Euro trades lower against all currencies despite the ECB’s attempt to establish a hawkish tone. USA100 – The NASDAQ Climbs Higher, But Is the Growth Sustainable? The NASDAQ was the only index which did not witness a significant decline at the opening of the US session. In addition to this, the USA100 is the only index which is witnessing indications of a bullish market. The price has crossed onto a higher high breaking the resistance level at $18,269. The index is also trading above the 75-Bar EMA and at the 65.00 level on the RSI which signals buyers are controlling the market. However, a similar large bullish impulse wave was also formed on the 3rd and 5th of the month and was followed by a correction. Therefore, investors need to be cautious of a bearish breakout which may signal a correction back to the 75-bar EMA (18,165). The medium-term growth and its sustainability will depend on the upcoming earnings data.   Bond yields declined during this morning’s Asian session by 18 points, which is positive for the stock market. However, even with the decline, bond yields remain significantly higher than Monday’s opening yield. This week the 10-year bond yield rose from 4.424 to 4.558, which is a concern. If bond yields again start to rise, the stock market potentially can again become pressured. 25% of the NASDAQ ended the day lower and 75% higher. This gives a clear indication of the sentiment towards the technology sector and reassures traders about the price movement. Another positive was all of the top 12 influential stocks rose in value. Apple, NVIDIA and Broadcom saw the strongest gains, all rising more than 4%. Producer inflation read slightly lower than expectations, however, the index continues to rise. The Producer Price Index rose from 1.6% to 2.1% and the Core PPI from 2.1% to 2.4%. Therefore, it is not indicating inflation will become easier to tackle in the upcoming months. For this reason, investors should note that inflation and the monetary policy is still a risk and can trigger strong bearish impulse waves. EURUSD – The Euro Declines Against Major Currencies The European Central Bank is attempting to concentrate on the positive factors and give no indications of when the committee may opt to cut rates. For example, President Lagarde advises “sales figures” remain stable, but the issue remains they are stably low. Officials said the decline in prices generally confirms medium-term forecasts and is ensured by a decrease in the cost of food and goods. Most experts continue to believe that the first reduction in interest rates will happen in June, and there may be three or four in total during the year. Due to this, the Euro is declining against all currencies including the Pound, Yen and Swiss Franc. The US Dollar Index on the other hand trades 0.39% higher and is almost trading at a 23-week high. Due to this momentum, the price of the exchange continues to indicate a decline in favor of the US Dollar.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.