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jaysmith124

Psychology Ready?

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I am going to attempt to post recording of my desensitization therapy. I will call my desire to trade 2000 per trade a phobia. I am currently afraid to pull the trigger.

 

So, I will start with 100 shares and increase the share size based on the stress/anxiety level that I feel.

 

I have appointments once in a while when I need to be somewhere or get ready to go (tomorrow Dr. appt. for example), but this is a paper trade. It has been hard for me to move from paper trade to even 100 shares. Just the thought of using real money triggers a state change from ADULT to a CHILD contaminated ADULT needing help. (this is irrational) I have a sound trading system. Bear in mind that I have more emotional garbage to deal with than the typical trader. I have a history of big losses from the past, which adds up to more than... And, ...

 

But it is time to commit. I can't wait any longer. After the consistently pulling he trigger with 100 shares, I will get rid of the distorted thoughts/feelings of doubt/anxiety replacing them with confidence, and building self-efficacy. I will become an intrepid trader winning money every day like picking from a money tree.

 

As long as my recording does not interfere with my executions I will continue posting until after I feel stress free with 2000 shares. The biggest hurdle will be the jump from paper trading to 100 shares. The results will validate my belief that I can trade for a living, and dispel any doubt that the belief is a fantasy. I will not be talking about why, and how, about my trading system. It does not matter the symbol for example, because I am focused on psychology. How I feel and mindfulness (aware) of why I am feeling a certain way.

 

It will also show others that before they give their money to somebody who thinks they can teach you to trade how it is possible to request that they first prove their prowess. Personally, I will not give my money to somebody who can not do something that I want to try to emulate, or what I want to do. To bad I didn't have this belief before I gave my money away for basic information.

Paper1.avi

Edited by jaysmith124

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I am feeling relaxed and confident. In this state, I have missed a couple opportunities. I am thinking about self talk I need to maintain Friday when I can trade. Even though the day is not over, I have resorted to getting psyched up for the next trading session.

 

(Self Talk)

This is a habit I must change. Change comes easy to me even though I am, sub-consciously, avoiding another trade. It takes continual mental focus and concentration. It is too soon to relax and reward myself for a good paper trade. Get with the program, Jay! Jay is obviously in a Child state. Kick him in the butt. Somebody needs to bitch slap the bastard. Like a soldier in training not wanting to jump out of a plane for the first time a drill sergeant is there to yell at the soldier instilling fear of not jumping. But sitting here by myself, it is easy to stay in a comfortable, safe, familiar psychological place.

 

A change is in order.

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It's all about psychology. As seen in this movie, "Limitless" 2011

...introduces him to NZT, a new pharmaceutical that allows him to tap his full potential.

 

But lets get real. If the Bupropion I was prescribed does not work, a cattle prod will have to do.[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOLqNOfzus4]YouTube - Limitless Movie Trailer Official (HD)[/ame]

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Our brains are wired to seek certainty. Uncertainty can cause the brain to go into an automatic avoidance response. A shot of adrenaline hits your heart faster than you can blink an eye. This is a pre-wired biological response, it's not based on a rational assessment of risk management. The brain couldn't care less about risk management. The brain, in many people, wants zero risk.

 

I like to think of this process as a software program running in my brain. And it was "factory installed". :rofl: When I think of this automatic biological response as a program, I am able to detach myself, and think of it in a very mechanical and technical way. So when you write of desensitization, this is what I think of.

 

It's "not personal", it's that pesky program trying to run. I think of it as "Spam" that I can add a filter for. Hit the delete button to stop it from running.

 

Of course, we should all be comfortable with our trading rules. If our trading rules are very precise, and leave little room for user discretion, it becomes more mechanical.

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I am feeling relaxed and confident. In this state, I have missed a couple opportunities. I am thinking about self talk I need to maintain Friday when I can trade. Even though the day is not over, I have resorted to getting psyched up for the next trading session.

 

(Self Talk)

This is a habit I must change. Change comes easy to me even though I am, sub-consciously, avoiding another trade. It takes continual mental focus and concentration. It is too soon to relax and reward myself for a good paper trade. Get with the program, Jay! Jay is obviously in a Child state. Kick him in the butt. Somebody needs to bitch slap the bastard. Like a soldier in training not wanting to jump out of a plane for the first time a drill sergeant is there to yell at the soldier instilling fear of not jumping. But sitting here by myself, it is easy to stay in a comfortable, safe, familiar psychological place.

 

A change is in order.

 

Jay,

 

I have to ask.

 

Why are you torturing yourself? Why do you have to do this?

 

MM

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Jaysmith,

Have you been burned by the Markets? I went though a period of being afraid to "pull the trigger" after suffering some large losses. If you believe in the methodology you are using, it should pass.

As Tradewinds suggests, let your system do the thinking for you.

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Personally I know of a simple way to deal with the gentleman's problem

 

Jaysmith, it depends on your motivation...PM me and I can fill in the details...it dosent require that you buy anything, or do much more than commit to a simple discipline...over a short period of time...

 

The ball is in your court.

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Jay,

 

I have to ask.

 

Why are you torturing yourself? Why do you have to do this?

 

MM

 

I want to go on, and on, but I'll keep it short. Quickly, I don't think I realize the extent I deprive myself. I belief that patience will reward me. I'll spend more time building a foundation to work from so that am the best I can be. This is one justification for the way I am. I would not be surprised that there is hidden stuff.

 

Wanting to post results will be a change from what has not worked for me. It may help motivate me.

 

What I'd appreciate is that you, or anyone, who has read my post be specific as to why you see me torturing myself. I don't believe I see the torture as you do. I see it as necessary to get in a small percentage of people who can use the stock market as a money tree. "One man's pain is another man's pleasure" type thing.

But then my foundation has been built for a while. I should have started doing what I know a long time ago.

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Jaysmith,

Have you been burned by the Markets? I went though a period of being afraid to "pull the trigger" after suffering some large losses. If you believe in the methodology you are using, it should pass.

As Tradewinds suggests, let your system do the thinking for you.

 

Yes, of course, I've been burned. (Humbled)

It is all behind me. The experience gave a lot of power the resulting fear. I have taken most of that power away leaving acceptable stress levels. But we need balance. There is good stress and bad stress. I see it on a bell curve with the top of the bell being the optimum level of stress for peak performance. Just to the right we are being overwhelmed.

 

I have been all the way down the right side of the bell. (Learned helplessness) Back to the bottom of the left side(good stress). I learned that I didn't want to ever experience that stress again, and somehow associated all stress as bad stress making me too cautious. I think I am about where the gauge on the attached is pointing.

PeakExperiences.jpg.b435f60e380ac12f9d53e1bb94eb3f78.jpg

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I want to go on, and on, but I'll keep it short. Quickly, I don't think I realize the extent I deprive myself. I belief that patience will reward me. I'll spend more time building a foundation to work from so that am the best I can be. This is one justification for the way I am. I would not be surprised that there is hidden stuff.

 

Wanting to post results will be a change from what has not worked for me. It may help motivate me.

 

What I'd appreciate is that you, or anyone, who has read my post be specific as to why you see me torturing myself. I don't believe I see the torture as you do. I see it as necessary to get in a small percentage of people who can use the stock market as a money tree. "One man's pain is another man's pleasure" type thing.

But then my foundation has been built for a while. I should have started doing what I know a long time ago.

 

Well, my comments would only be guesses at why you are torturing yourself. The inability to enter a 100 share trade seems like someone who should be doing something else that he find is easier, less painful, more profitable to do.

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You have to start some where. So consider the 100 share as a test. Invest only what you are comfortable to loose. consider the whole amount as a loss. When you reach that level of acceptance you can enter the trade. Also look at the opposite of not entering the trade. You would not be able to benefit from the gains you might have had. Hope this helps you. You expressing your feelings this way helps you to get control your emotions. Belive me you are on the right track. Good luck.

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I will call this the first trade out of a series that results will conquer my fear/doubt. I will replace this automatic fear/doubt from the past with present "Adult" confidence and self-efficacy.

 

I am exposing(Or more specifically, desensitizing) to the irrational fears. Like that of a person getting over the fear of spiders. The psychologist puts a spider in the middle of the room in a jar, and has the client come in the room. Just hanging around near the walls. Then the next day get a little closer. etc. Until they can eventually take the spider out of the jar and hold it. Or, proving that my present rational belief is delusional. Either one, I'll know the truth, my goal.

 

The video is real. The snap shot is what my Adult says I coulda, shoulda, woulda, made .90 cents done without the emotional garbage.

 

P.S. The horizontal line on the snap shot is my entry sell. On the third 4 minute candle I got out when the price action returned to this area. I will learn from each trade. I will reinforce a new belief system. A belief system of an awesome intrepid trader!

Trade1.avi

Trade1.jpg.4501ed8680224b290e09e938aadf771a.jpg

Edited by jaysmith124

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Risk/Reward

 

With Trade1, I had my focus on the risk. Not wanting to realize the risk had more emotional power than my desire to realize the reward. This misdirected emotional power compelled me to take action.

 

(Self talk)

I have changed a lot with my world outlook, but am dealing with a stuck point that puts emotional power on a negative schema when attempting to trade.

I know what I need to do, and that is to place the emotional power on the positive schema, and emotional consequences. (desired outcome).

 

Awareness of where my focus is directed will keep me from repeating this mistake. I will keep mindful of the effectiveness of my calculated risk/reward, and my behavior will change to allow the trading system to work.

 

Beliefs plus action equals Results. Whether the beliefs, and supporting action is negative or positive, the results will probably, and can commensurately, be with its schema. We take action based on emotion, and what that emotion is supporting.

 

I am currently experiencing stress/anxiety. It is probably good stress, but I think my history, and fear of being able to cope with success, throws me off my desired schema. I just called my regular Dr. to get he OK to take the medications prescribed from my psychiatrist. (I always double check when it comes to what doctors say) The psychiatrist told me, but I need to find out, if this medication will calm me down giving my mind the ability to make the necessary changes. I will discontinue the medication after my new belief is ingrained in my schema.

 

I am not promoting medication. I have recently come off Zoloft, which I decided was not doing it for me any more.(I've gotten my tools to change from self talk), and this new medication will also be temporary based on my history.

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Risk/Reward

 

With Trade1, I had my focus on the risk. Not wanting to realize the risk had more emotional power than my desire to realize the reward. This misdirected emotional power compelled me to take action.

 

(Self talk)

I have changed a lot with my world outlook, but am dealing with a stuck point that puts emotional power on a negative schema when attempting to trade.

I know what I need to do, and that is to place the emotional power on the positive schema, and emotional consequences. (desired outcome).

 

Awareness of where my focus is directed will keep me from repeating this mistake. I will keep mindful of the effectiveness of my calculated risk/reward, and my behavior will change to allow the trading system to work.

 

Beliefs plus action equals Results. Whether the beliefs, and supporting action is negative or positive, the results will probably, and can commensurately, be with its schema. We take action based on emotion, and what that emotion is supporting.

 

I am currently experiencing stress/anxiety. It is probably good stress, but I think my history, and fear of being able to cope with success, throws me off my desired schema. I just called my regular Dr. to get he OK to take the medications prescribed from my psychiatrist. (I always double check when it comes to what doctors say) The psychiatrist told me, but I need to find out, if this medication will calm me down giving my mind the ability to make the necessary changes. I will discontinue the medication after my new belief is ingrained in my schema.

 

I am not promoting medication. I have recently come off Zoloft, which I decided was not doing it for me any more.(I've gotten my tools to change from self talk), and this new medication will also be temporary based on my history.

couple of things, if your acct is so small that a loss will kill you,wait til you have more to trade with,if this is not a problem,then it mat be that your poorly wired ,your full of beliefs,they are personal and chosen ,accepted ,things you are accustomed to thinking,good or bad,your comfortable because of the familiarity and a proven amount of time coping with such beliefs hasn't killed you,so your fear of death is somewhat in check...we are all in denial,no ones belief system is foolproof and we must fool ourselves into believing it is,it lowers our inhibitions,anxiety and fears...you are seeing a shrink and taking meds to alter your mental state..unless your mental state is caused by uncontrollable chemical build ups or chemical deficiencys,chemicals won't fix the problem....Challenge your belief system.toss out every belief as false and rebuild ,use true and false questions what to accept as fact and discard any whimful assumption of truth unless you are absolutely sure it;s true,this method of recognizing what you see and of that what you understand and don't understand is the type of mental process you need to use for each trade,the dumber you become the more you will know,all the areas that you are dumb in will be recognized as an area you can;t find the truth in and will not follow or adhere to,minimizing the number of misbeliefs you rechoose to accept....be rudimentary in your list of new accepted beliefs,bodily functions, stimulus of the 5 senses,your height and weight,.your list needs to start with undeniable truths,rebuild from there

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Risk/Reward

 

With Trade1, I had my focus on the risk. Not wanting to realize the risk had more emotional power than my desire to realize the reward. This misdirected emotional power compelled me to take action.

 

I am currently experiencing stress/anxiety. It is probably good stress,

I am not promoting medication. I have recently come off Zoloft, which I decided was not doing it for me any more.(I've gotten my tools to change from self talk), and this new medication will also be temporary based on my history.

 

We all bring our baggage to the markets. I believe how I compartmentalize these thoughts (positive and negative) has a major effect on my trading success or failure.

 

Over the last 2-3 years my wife and I spent well over $60,000 unraveling two (2) daughters from the grip of prescription drugs. These young women had no prior history of drug abuse. While under a "doctors" care (for different illnesses) their lives were totally changed for the worst within 1 year. Believe me, you don't want to put your family (loved ones) through that. If you choose to proceed with medication of any kind, listen to the opinions of those around you as to the medication's effect on you, because I assure you, you will be the LAST to realize those effects. I had to post this, please be careful, it can happen to you.

 

 

I sure don't have the time to explain all that's going on at market tops, but I will say this: The top of a trend (large or small) is just that, the top of the trend, nothing more. Most times the top of a trend IS NOT a great place to immediately enter a short position, sure AFTER the fact it most certainly does look like the logical place to enter. Most often when the top of a nice up trend is identified prices will rotate around (consolidate) a bit BEFORE deciding to continue or reverse direction. I'm sure many will disagree and offer examples of price spikes where highs were made and prices fell like rocks. This is not what I'm speaking of, your chart shows a nice uptrend with a nice group of trending bars (the spike on the bottom "could" make the above argument). If/when you entered short on the up candle or the next couple thereafter you had no confirmation the trend was about to reverse (according to the chart), your risk "should" be ABOVE your entry, or at lest the high.

 

As ammo stated, "if your acct is so small that a loss will kill you,wait til you have more to trade with." Another issue I noticed by watching your clip was you threw in a market order to dump the trade (I think). As I said no one (based on your chart) knew if the trend would continue or reverse, and during the first real test to confirm the reversal you dump the trade with a market order and take max slippage, I assume. Your short at the top was in fact a risky trade that eventually proved to be profitable at the moment you bailed out (within the time frame of the screen shot).

 

Your fear of loss is obviously extreme and intense, and is a total delusion. No one is coming for your first born child if you get taken out of a short trade 1 tick above the high!! If your entry is any indication of your skill (I'll assume it is) your doing many things right. This trade (according to the screen shot) was a counter trend trade, where was your target, where was your stop, when you initiated the position? IMO, only when you can comfortably accept the maximum risk of each and every position you enter can you succeed. Furthermore, IMO, the only way to fully accept that risk is to take the risk, over and over again. FYI, I had two (2) trades this week that went against me right out of the gate. One trade traded 1 tick below my stop (a short trade) for over 20min, then turned profitable and tripped my target. The other trade actually traded ON MY STOP during a spike and fell away, turning that trade profitable as well. My point is, if I was not comfortable taking my full loss on either of these two trades, both "would" have been losers. Was I excited and anxious, was my heart rate up a bit, sure I hate losing money as much as the next guy, but I held my ground and let the market decide if I was wrong or not.

 

I have to go back and say, If your under so much stress you feel you need medication STOP TRADING, the market will always be here, you're not going to miss anything THAT important. Take a break, spend a few weeks doing chores around the house, spend some time AWAY from the markets, don't look at charts, quotes or read any books, TAKE A BREAK.

 

I did it, I wrote a post that includes, could, would and should. ;)

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Listen to the opinions of those around you as to the medication's effect on you, because I assure you, you will be the LAST to realize those effects.

 

Thanks, I work for a community mental health clinic a few hours a week. They will see any change in behavior.

 

...you are seeing a shrink and taking meds to alter your mental state..unless your mental state is caused by uncontrollable chemical build ups or chemical deficiencys,chemicals won't fix the problem....Challenge your belief system.toss out every belief as false and rebuild

 

 

 

Thanks. I have read and researched before accepting Zoloft. I've heard these stories, and I am very careful.

I have been on Zoloft for a year and a half while going through talk therapy. Some research told me that the combination of drug and therapy has the best results. Many are on drugs only. This does not work. Talk therapy will work without the drugs. So, I went with the combination wanting to be on a fast track to change my life for the better. Challenging my belief system was not possible on my own at the time. Whether or not the Zoloft helped, I don't really know. I stopped taking meds last November, and finished therapy a little over a month ago. I am very happy with challenging old beliefs and making changes with my world view.

The BUPROPION I started yesterday. (This is funny telling the internet/world my dealings with mental health) And it is just an experiment to see if it helps. I will be trading anyway, and after I am trading with 2000 per trade, I won't be able to tell someone that the meds helped. I don't see it as risky, and it won't hurt. At the time I am at 2000 per trade I will stop with the meds.

 

As ammo stated, "if your acct is so small that a loss will kill you,wait til you have more to trade with." Another issue I noticed by watching your clip was you threw in a market order to dump the trade (I think).

 

I can trade 2000 per trade. So, it should not be long before I build up to that size. I am looking at a month, maybe two. Then I will feel accomplished. Stop posting and slowly continue to increase size. I am familair with 2000 share executions, and I'll have to find out if I need adjustments with larger size.

I use market orders to get out most of the time. Basically to get in as well with a leading limit order. (with 100 shares there is no need to lead the price for a complete fill. Also, many times I get a couple cents better fill than expected.)

I don't look to saving penny's for the trade opportunities I look for are intra-day trends for the most part. Complete fills are most important when I am trying to get a dollar move.

 

I feel I am on the right track with 100 shares. I am looking forward to next week.

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I attached the daily resulting move on the Trade1. 2.67 cents from where I entered to the close. and I mentioned how I woulda, shouda, couda, have taken .90. This is my honest assessment.

 

Also, this is the last time I will show a chart or symbol for the purpose is to show results. For some reason, I feel uncomfortable showing my entry and exit points.

Trade1a.jpg.224c106d490ad0610bc2605a96a4b8e6.jpg

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I did not trade today. I let a couple trades pass me by. I need to focus on a certain mindset ignoring the tendency to relax, and stay in a familiar place. A place that does not want to change. I felt good all weekend anticipating this morning, but then I was feeling groggy until I go to my computer. The only other change I made from the last trade execution(s) was that I increased the share size from 100 to 200.

 

I want to feel enough discomfort to stay vigilant, yet not where it will change my state from confident assertiveness to overly cautious, or avoidance. This is a balance I will have to figure out as I go. I will go back to 100 shares until I finish tomorrow's trading with confidence. Or, I may decide to stay with 100 shares for a week.

 

This may not have been the reason, or it may have only contributed, to me avoiding trade opportunities. But, it is reasonable for me to assume that it was possibly, and partly, responsible for my state change.

Day2Notrade.jpg.9320a705a2204bac79203eb42355b2f5.jpg

Edited by jaysmith124

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This snap shot includes the date to show that I am not hiding any loses.

 

I got distracted by attending a free chat room for this week(normally $125 per month), but I have chosen be passive letting it pull me away from my responsibilities. Both yesterday and today.

 

Another day of woulda, shoulda, coulda.

 

No chat room tomorrow.

Day3Notrade.jpg.d4c8c9725e9acedf3b87c3fd81ac6e89.jpg

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all your posts are about,you,your meds,your dr...and distraction,very little percentage wise about trading,all the trading takes place in your head,your ego has firm control of that,you need to take control and quiet the 2 year old(ego,me,me,me) before you do any more trading,if you trade, the acct will get killed while the ego hangs on to being right,it;s a very expensive lesson and a tough battle,you are better off fighting it in simulation..all traders have to give up the ego,those who can't never succeed,you need market sense and wisdom,patience humility...these soldiers need to be at the table for every decision..so far i don;t see their presence anywhere........you need to be 2 people right now..the ego jay which is all of you at the moment..and the wise silent jay sitting up on the ledge looking down at your every move... silent jay has to put ego jay in the crib and keep him there

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all your posts are about,you...

... the acct will get killed while the ego hangs on to being right...

...you need market sense and wisdom,patience humility...

...you need to be 2 people right now...

...silent jay has to put ego jay in the crib and keep him there

 

Yes, it is all about me. I know myself much better today from the last year of work.

You have me erroneously categorized. What you are saying did apply in the past. It was my ego that wants to trade 2000 shares, but I will control the urge for the first few trades, and try not to increase shares more than 100 shares at a time, or day.(after trading) I do not think with permanence, nor in absolutes. This would be the antitheses of thinking in probabilities. I remain flexible, and adapt, to the particular situation. So, if I feel confident, I will jump to 2000 shares for that particular trade.

 

I am coming from simulated trading, and having trouble with pulling the trigger with real money. Although, what you talk about applies to many, it does not apply to me. I will prove myself shortly.

 

You say that ...silent Jay has to put ego jay in the crib and keep him there

This does apply in a way. Negative emotions are overtaking my psyche(my state of mind) as a child becomes diffident and feeling inferior. And then it does not apply, because a stronger ego is needed to keep me from going there.

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Trade2: Break Even

 

I am back in saddle! I feel that I am on the right path. Today's trade was break even, and I was on top of the second attempt, but froze.

Woulda, Shoulda, Coulda, had .80 cents.

 

Later there was a couple more trade opportunities I let go. Both more than a dollar, so my spirits are up, my confidence is up, but feeling ambivalent. I have allowed the negative emotions of fear/doubt to overpower the positive emotions expecting to realize the reward. The emotional consequences of the reward.

 

I am forgetting that I am only using 100 shares, and feeling the emotions as if I had used 2000 or more. I can't trade tomorrow morning, but Friday, I will need to constantly tell myself that the risk is so small that I don't need to feel such powerful emotions. What is the worst that can happen? I need to ask myself.

 

The positive people who have helped with their posts will be proud of me, and then there will be some negative people who despise me. So what? The positive people are the one's who count in my world.

 

Dr. FXGirl reminded me that I need to have fun. This gave me something to cogitate. I will focus on enjoying the process never losing a connection to the end result. Just as an NBA player focuses on dribbling yet has the basket in his peripheral vision.

 

I believe that posting my trading results will be beneficial in one way to show myself that I have really changed. That other people's opinions, criticisms, ridicule, what they think of me, does not matter if it is not supportive. I am not afraid to be less than what I wish to be, because only then will I be able to move forward. I believe most are affected negatively by these non-supportive messages. From a competitive standpoint, people learn to bring you down or off your game, so that they will win. (psyche you out) Or, so that they will look, and feel better, about themselves. From the stuff I've read in ET, I am surprised nobody has come forward looking to debate. I'm glad, and would respond if they did. I am in no way trying to invite this type of banter. I am just sharing that if you have insecurities, about what others think, you can get over it. You can change. I believe I am in the top 10% of traders with the skills and ability, to win everyday.(big)

 

It took 50 seconds for my limit order to cover to get lifted at break even. I am making note of this, because with 2000 shares, I would have been out with a market order with an 11 cent loss.

Trade2.avi

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    • also ... and barely on topic... Winners (always*) overpay. Buying the dips is a subscription to the belief that winners win by underpaying - when in actuality winners (inevitably/always*) win by overpaying... it’s amazing the percentage of traders who think winners win by underpaying ... “Winners (always*) overpay.” ...  One way to implement this ‘belief’ is to only reenter when prices have emphatically resumed the 'trend' .   (Fwiw, While “Winners (always*) overpay.” holds true in most endeavors (relationships, business, sports, etc...) - “Winners (always*) overpay.”  is especially true for auctions... continuous auctions included.)
    • re:  "Does it make sense to always buy the dips?  “Buy the dip.”  You hear this all the time in crypto investing trading speculation gambling. [zdo taking some liberties] It refers, of course, to buying more bitcoin (or digital assets) when they go down in price: when the price “dips.” Some people brag about “buying the dip," showing they know better than the crowd. Others “buy the dip” as an investment strategy: they’re getting a bargain. The problem is, buying the dip is a fallacy. You can’t buy the dip, because you can't see the total dip until much later. First, I’ll explain this in a way that will make it simple and obvious to you; then I’ll show you a better way of investing. You Only Know the Dip in Hindsight When people talk about “buying the dip,” what they’re really saying is, “I bought when the price was going down.” " ... example of a dip ... 
    • Date: 19th April 2024. Weekly Commodity Market Update: Oil Prices Correct and Supply Concerns Persist.   The ongoing developments in the Middle East sparked a wave of risk aversion and fueled supply concerns and investors headed for safety. Hopes for imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve diminish while attention is now turning towards the demand outlook. The Gold price hit a high of $2417.89 per ounce overnight. Sentiment has already calmed down again and bullion is trading at $2376.50 per ounce as haven flows ease. Oil prices initially moved higher as concern over escalating tensions with the WTI contract hit a session high of $85.508 per barrel overnight, before correcting to currently $81.45 per barrel. Oil Prices Under Pressure Amid Middle East Tensions Last week, commodity indexes showed little movement, with Oil prices undergoing a slight correction. Meanwhile, Gold reached yet another record high, mirroring the upward trend in cocoa prices. Once again today, USOil prices experienced a correction and has remained under pressure, retesting the 50-day EMA at $81.00 as we moving into the weekend. Hence, despite the Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran, sentiments stabilized following reports suggesting a measured response aimed at avoiding further escalation. Brent crude futures witnessed a more than 4% leap, driven by concerns over potential disruptions to oil supplies in the Middle East, only to subsequently erase all gains. Similarly with USOIL, UKOIL hovers just below $87 per barrel, marginally below Thursday’s closing figures. Nevertheless, volatility is expected to continue in the market as several potential risks loom:   Disruption to the Strait of Hormuz: The possibility of Iran disrupting navigation through the vital shipping lane, is still in play. The Strait of Hormuz serves as the Persian Gulf’s primary route to international waters, with approximately 21 million barrels of oil passing through daily. Recent events, including Iran’s seizure of an Israel-linked container ship, underscore the geopolitical sensitivity of the region. Tougher Sanctions on Iran: Analysts speculate that the US may impose stricter sanctions on Iranian oil exports or intensify enforcement of existing restrictions. With global oil consumption reaching 102 million barrels per day, Iran’s production of 3.3 million barrels remains significant. Recent actions targeting Venezuelan oil highlight the potential for increased pressure on Iranian exports. OPEC Output Increases: Despite the desire for higher prices, OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have constrained output in recent years. However, sustained crude prices above $100 per barrel could prompt concerns about demand and incentivize increased production. The OPEC may opt to boost oil output should tensions escalate further and prices surge. Ukraine Conflict: Amidst the focus on the Middle East, markets overlooking Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Potential retaliatory strikes by Kyiv on Russian oil infrastructure could impact exports, adding further complexity to global oil markets.   Technical Analysis USOIL is marking one of the steepest weekly declines witnessed this year after a brief period of consolidation. The breach below the pivotal support level of 84.00, coupled with the descent below the mid of the 4-month upchannel, signals a possible shift in market sentiment towards a bearish trend reversal. Adding to the bearish outlook are indications such as the downward slope in the RSI. However, the asset still hold above the 50-day EMA which coincides also with the mid of last year’s downleg, with key support zone at $80.00-$81.00. If it breaks this support zone, the focus may shift towards the 200-day EMA and 38.2% Fib. level at $77.60-$79.00. Conversely, a rejection of the $81 level and an upside potential could see the price returning back to $84.00. A break of the latter could trigger the attention back to the December’s resistance, situated around $86.60. A breakthrough above this level could ignite a stronger rally towards the $89.20-$90.00 zone. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past perfrmance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 18th April 2024. Market News – Stock markets benefit from Dollar correction. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Technical buying, bargain hunting, and risk aversion helped Treasuries rally and unwind recent losses. Yields dropped from the recent 2024 highs. Asian stock markets strengthened, as the US Dollar corrected in the wake of comments from Japan’s currency chief Masato Kanda, who said G7 countries continue to stress that excessive swings and disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were harmful for economies. US Stockpiles expanded to 10-month high. The data overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented recent attack. President Joe Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum.   Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex stumbled, falling to 105.66 at the end of the day from the intraday high of 106.48. It lost ground against most of its G10 peers. There wasn’t much on the calendar to provide new direction. USDJPY lows retesting the 154 bottom! NOT an intervention yet. BoJ/MoF USDJPY intervention happens when there is more than 100+ pip move in seconds, not 50 pips. USOIL slumped by 3% near $82, as US crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels last week, hitting the highest level since last June, while gauges of fuel demand declined. Gold strengthened as the dollar weakened and bullion is trading at $2378.44 per ounce. Market Trends:   Wall Street closed in the red after opening with small corrective gains. The NASDAQ underperformed, slumping -1.15%, with the S&P500 -0.58% lower, while the Dow lost -0.12. The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng gained more than 1. European and US futures are finding buyers. A gauge of global chip stocks and AI bellwether Nvidia Corp. have both fallen into a technical correction. The TMSC reported its first profit rise in a year, after strong AI demand revived growth at the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. The main chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. recorded a 9% rise in net income, beating estimates. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
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