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Mysticforex

Traders Laboratory Forex Trading Contest!

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Thank you for your kind words. As for the methodology, I am following the idea from Optiontimer's thread http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/10158-optiontimers-project.html to trade in the direction of the main move when it is ready. I set up the simple chart in oanda, then in the evening scroll through the pairs searching for the ones that are ready for a trade.

 

'Tis truly the key to untold wealth. That method is the easiest way I know to make a lot of money in a little bit of time, and it doesn't cost you anything except a few hours of studying that thread. A little time and then the discipline/work ethic to employ it and you wil be on your way.

 

I experimented by entering trades in EU, EJ, CJ, UJ (actually GU also looked ready, but it was hard for me to enter EU and GU in the opposite direction - something to be worked on).

 

Yes. Do not assume that yesterday's correlations will hold tomorrow.

 

The next time the signals were ready, I entered heavily on the ones that perform the best. In this case it was EJ. I entered EJ heavily and pressed it by entering more positions when it went my direction (I call it my snowball trade). Strange that EJ was outperforming GJ. I tried entering some exotic pairs and those pairs with XAU and XAG also, but I find that the instruments that do not show a definite sustained direction were not performing as well. Ofcourse this was just a very small sample and need further study.QUOTE]

 

It is not strange and yet if you found it to be strange that was telling you something important.

The Euro is by far the strongest currency at the moment, and Yen is by far the weakest. The best play is to be long Eur and short YEN, and the fact that the market allows you to be long the strongest while simulataneously short the weakest is a gift of untold proportion!

 

The GBP is the weakest of the majors right now, so the weakest major will necessarily underpeform against the weakest when compared to the stronger majors. So it makes sense that if all the majors are rising against the Yen, the GBP wil rise the least, and in time, it may actually fall. Again, do not assume that since the GBP was the strongest against th Yen in the last bull market that it will remain so in toay's bull.

 

The next time the signals were ready, I entered heavily on the ones that perform the best. In this case it was EJ. I entered EJ heavily and pressed it by entering more positions when it went my direction (I call it my snowball trade)...I was very lucky to catch a wave when the position was so large.

 

You ought to enlarge that, print it out, and paste it everywhere so that you will never, ever, forget those words. While so many are out chasing for the holy grail hoping to figure out a way to get "one or two es points a day," you go and post the actual grail right there in your humble post.

 

1) Look for the strongest trend

 

2) Wait for the pullback

 

3) Jump in big (but not recklessly) when price signals the pullback may be over and the trend is likely resuming.

 

4) Use open trade equity as additional margin to pyramid, i.e. "snowball" your position.

 

As for your stop, trail behind recent reactions. Assume the trend will continue until it reverses and stops you out. I would recomend studying Victor Sperandeo's books, and perhaps incorporate his 1-2-3's and break of properly drawn trendlines to help you.

 

Finally, not all of your campaigns will not all be homeruns. In my own accounts, I am up over 170% for January. December I was up over 40%. But November was not a full of opportunity, and I managed only 15%. I do not have many negative months, but I did finish down about 2.5% in June of 2012. There will mostly be singles and doubles, a few triples, even fewer homeruns, and then the occassional grandslam. You will also sometimes strikeout.

 

But the way you managed that 89% is exactly how I trade, whether I am day trading or position trading. I know most here won't believe my numbers, and I don't care. If nothing else, my performance month after month in these contests ought to be enough to make some people think "Hey, maybe there is something to this system. Maybe I should go look at the OT project thread."

 

Think about this: I finished the contest +40%. But if you recall, I actually dropped to -50% because I inadvertently failed to place a stop loss on one trade. From that -50%, left me a balance of 45K, I hit the same pair you did, and traded it the same way you did, and I managed to take that 45K back to 140K in a month. Had it not been for that one mistake, my two month return for the contest would have likely exceeded 200%.

 

And one last thing - you mentioned "luck." Absolutely! Most traders overestimate the amount of control they have and underestimate the role of luck. You cannot control when and where the market will go on a tear, or tread sideways for a seeming eternity, or when a perfectly good signal to hop aboard a trend is suddenly reversed by price action, with an unhealthy dose of negative slippage to boot.

 

We only control whether or not we are ready to be the beneficiaries of these trends. We cannot control when luck will strike, only that we are ready to get lucky when it does.

 

You seem to have had a breakthrough in your understanding of what I have been trying to communicate here. Kuokam likewise sems to be on the cusp of a breakthrough. I wish the both of you the determination and perseverence and discipline to benefit fully from your burgeoning insights.

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Bravo Onemove, for the the fast learning and discipline in application.

 

OT, thanks a lot for another great contribution. I am so happy I came to know you and project here.

 

My performance lately has not been optimal for two reasons:

1- I tried to pick tops and got punished, because I followed a COT reader telling me for weeks that the yen was way oversold and ready to reverse. There I learned what it is to follow too many indicators at the same time:

2- I lacked the courage to take two trades that went in my projected direction in leaps. So, as of late, I've been only applying the "cut your losses short" and "manage your risk" rules.

 

For my bottom line for the 4 months contest, I started out with 100700. Now I have 150800 in the account. Very satisfied with a result I never achieved and managed to keep in my 6+ years trading live or sim.

But I know the learning never ends, as a saying here goes "who is not advancing is retreating".

 

Now, for a couple of weeks I am taking a break from the contest.

My project at hand is that of learning the to read and trade over the DOM. I have been told the pros' trade but that way and wanted to check out what I am missing. Any opinion on the subject is welcomed, be it by pm .

 

See you next time. Thanks again to Mystic, OT, Ingot and all the contributors.

 

 

 

'Tis truly the key to untold wealth. That method is the easiest way I know to make a lot of money in a little bit of time, and it doesn't cost you anything except a few hours of studying that thread. A little time and then the discipline/work ethic to employ it and you wil be on your way.

 

 

 

Yes. Do not assume that yesterday's correlations will hold tomorrow.

 

The next time the signals were ready, I entered heavily on the ones that perform the best. In this case it was EJ. I entered EJ heavily and pressed it by entering more positions when it went my direction (I call it my snowball trade). Strange that EJ was outperforming GJ. I tried entering some exotic pairs and those pairs with XAU and XAG also, but I find that the instruments that do not show a definite sustained direction were not performing as well. Ofcourse this was just a very small sample and need further study.QUOTE]

 

It is not strange and yet if you found it to be strange that was telling you something important.

The Euro is by far the strongest currency at the moment, and Yen is by far the weakest. The best play is to be long Eur and short YEN, and the fact that the market allows you to be long the strongest while simulataneously short the weakest is a gift of untold proportion!

 

The GBP is the weakest of the majors right now, so the weakest major will necessarily underpeform against the weakest when compared to the stronger majors. So it makes sense that if all the majors are rising against the Yen, the GBP wil rise the least, and in time, it may actually fall. Again, do not assume that since the GBP was the strongest against th Yen in the last bull market that it will remain so in toay's bull.

 

 

 

You ought to enlarge that, print it out, and paste it everywhere so that you will never, ever, forget those words. While so many are out chasing for the holy grail hoping to figure out a way to get "one or two es points a day," you go and post the actual grail right there in your humble post.

 

1) Look for the strongest trend

 

2) Wait for the pullback

 

3) Jump in big (but not recklessly) when price signals the pullback may be over and the trend is likely resuming.

 

4) Use open trade equity as additional margin to pyramid, i.e. "snowball" your position.

 

As for your stop, trail behind recent reactions. Assume the trend will continue until it reverses and stops you out. I would recomend studying Victor Sperandeo's books, and perhaps incorporate his 1-2-3's and break of properly drawn trendlines to help you.

 

Finally, not all of your campaigns will not all be homeruns. In my own accounts, I am up over 170% for January. December I was up over 40%. But November was not a full of opportunity, and I managed only 15%. I do not have many negative months, but I did finish down about 2.5% in June of 2012. There will mostly be singles and doubles, a few triples, even fewer homeruns, and then the occassional grandslam. You will also sometimes strikeout.

 

But the way you managed that 89% is exactly how I trade, whether I am day trading or position trading. I know most here won't believe my numbers, and I don't care. If nothing else, my performance month after month in these contests ought to be enough to make some people think "Hey, maybe there is something to this system. Maybe I should go look at the OT project thread."

 

Think about this: I finished the contest +40%. But if you recall, I actually dropped to -50% because I inadvertently failed to place a stop loss on one trade. From that -50%, left me a balance of 45K, I hit the same pair you did, and traded it the same way you did, and I managed to take that 45K back to 140K in a month. Had it not been for that one mistake, my two month return for the contest would have likely exceeded 200%.

 

And one last thing - you mentioned "luck." Absolutely! Most traders overestimate the amount of control they have and underestimate the role of luck. You cannot control when and where the market will go on a tear, or tread sideways for a seeming eternity, or when a perfectly good signal to hop aboard a trend is suddenly reversed by price action, with an unhealthy dose of negative slippage to boot.

 

We only control whether or not we are ready to be the beneficiaries of these trends. We cannot control when luck will strike, only that we are ready to get lucky when it does.

 

You seem to have had a breakthrough in your understanding of what I have been trying to communicate here. Kuokam likewise sems to be on the cusp of a breakthrough. I wish the both of you the determination and perseverence and discipline to benefit fully from your burgeoning insights.

Edited by kuokam

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'Tis truly the key to untold wealth. That method is the easiest way I know to make a lot of money in a little bit of time, and it doesn't cost you anything except a few hours of studying that thread. A little time and then the discipline/work ethic to employ it and you wil be on your way.

 

Optiontimer, Thank you so very very much! I am so grateful for your thread http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/10158-optiontimers-project.html and for your generosity in sharing what works.

 

There is still a lot of work to do on my part. For example, I exited EJ at the hook back of daily stochrsi, yet it has continued to move strongly with no reliable fresh signal for re-entry. Therefore I am sidelined unable to participate in the 4+% move since. What is your strategy for re-entry?

 

You ought to enlarge that, print it out, and paste it everywhere so that you will never, ever, forget those words. While so many are out chasing for the holy grail hoping to figure out a way to get "one or two es points a day," you go and post the actual grail right there in your humble post.

 

1) Look for the strongest trend

 

2) Wait for the pullback

 

3) Jump in big (but not recklessly) when price signals the pullback may be over and the trend is likely resuming.

 

4) Use open trade equity as additional margin to pyramid, i.e. "snowball" your position.

 

As for your stop, trail behind recent reactions. Assume the trend will continue until it reverses and stops you out. I would recomend studying Victor Sperandeo's books, and perhaps incorporate his 1-2-3's and break of properly drawn trendlines to help you.

 

Thank you very much for pointing the way.

 

Finally, not all of your campaigns will not all be homeruns. In my own accounts, I am up over 170% for January. December I was up over 40%. But November was not a full of opportunity, and I managed only 15%. I do not have many negative months, but I did finish down about 2.5% in June of 2012. There will mostly be singles and doubles, a few triples, even fewer homeruns, and then the occassional grandslam. You will also sometimes strikeout.

 

But the way you managed that 89% is exactly how I trade, whether I am day trading or position trading. I know most here won't believe my numbers, and I don't care. If nothing else, my performance month after month in these contests ought to be enough to make some people think "Hey, maybe there is something to this system. Maybe I should go look at the OT project thread."

 

Think about this: I finished the contest +40%. But if you recall, I actually dropped to -50% because I inadvertently failed to place a stop loss on one trade. From that -50%, left me a balance of 45K, I hit the same pair you did, and traded it the same way you did, and I managed to take that 45K back to 140K in a month. Had it not been for that one mistake, my two month return for the contest would have likely exceeded 200%.

 

Optiontimer, yes, I still maintain from my earlier post

 

Optiontimer is such an amazing trader!! Any trader knows that it is much harder to go into a deep draw down and then having to pull oneself out of one with a much smaller balance to start with. So in my mind Optiontimer has surpassed all of us thus far.

 

That is an amazing performance in your own accounts! To have such a consistent positive performance over time is what I strive to learn to do.

 

Do you have a max drawdown level where you decide that no additional signals will be taken in the week? in the month? A sit-out period so to say. And what might that max drawdown level be?

 

And one last thing - you mentioned "luck." Absolutely! Most traders overestimate the amount of control they have and underestimate the role of luck. You cannot control when and where the market will go on a tear, or tread sideways for a seeming eternity, or when a perfectly good signal to hop aboard a trend is suddenly reversed by price action, with an unhealthy dose of negative slippage to boot.

 

We only control whether or not we are ready to be the beneficiaries of these trends. We cannot control when luck will strike, only that we are ready to get lucky when it does.

 

You seem to have had a breakthrough in your understanding of what I have been trying to communicate here. Kuokam likewise sems to be on the cusp of a breakthrough. I wish the both of you the determination and perseverence and discipline to benefit fully from your burgeoning insights.

 

Thank you for your encouragement.

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...There is still a lot of work to do on my part. For example, I exited EJ at the hook back of daily stochrsi, yet it has continued to move strongly with no reliable fresh signal for re-entry. Therefore I am sidelined unable to participate in the 4+% move since. What is your strategy for re-entry?

 

Do you have a max drawdown level where you decide that no additional signals will be taken in the week? in the month? A sit-out period so to say. And what might that max drawdown level be?

 

 

 

Thank you for your encouragement.

 

The stoch is for OB/OS against the trend only. The hook, as you call it, is only to be used as a sort of "training wheels" to tip you off that the main trend is getting ready to resume. I never recommended that you use it to exit a with-trend position. Once you are in a position, get rid of the stoch until price pulls back to the MA's. Then you can put it back on your chart to help you determine whether and where a good spot to add-on to your with-trend position would be. It is not an entry and exit indicator. Its only use, as I've described it, is to identify an oversold pullback in an uptrend or an overbought rally in a downtrend. That is it!

 

I have no max drawdown level. If you start sitting out signals, especially after a series of losses, you will undoubtedly sit out the trade that would have won back your all of your losses and then some. So long as you are taking the trades as your set up defines them, you must take them all. You will harm your long-term results if you place a restriction on your market activity that has nothing to do with the market.

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.........

 

I have no max drawdown level. If you start sitting out signals, especially after a series of losses, you will undoubtedly sit out the trade that would have won back your all of your losses and then some. So long as you are taking the trades as your set up defines them, you must take them all. You will harm your long-term results if you place a restriction on your market activity that has nothing to do with the market.

[emphasis added]

 

That's a fine quote here. It take a lot of confidence in your system to play it consistently no matter what. This is why systems are important, and the more you automate, the 'easier' it becomes as your focus is much less likely to drift. When you work out the expected drawdowns ahead of time, you can also use equity-based stop loss in case of a tsunami, which no one really has control over anyway.

 

One of the original turtles commented on the mechanical approach they used. There were times where there were lots of small losses that added up while going after the larger trend, and psychologically it can be difficult (even with a mechanical strategy, written by and under the guidance of a master trader) to exercise patience to wait for the turnaround to bigger profits.

 

Keeping all other variables constant, and depending on your aggression levels, your overall capital risk decreases as you increase the repetitions of your strategy. Your overall equity goes up, and risk of ruin or risk of loss is less and less as you now play with "the market's" money.

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Thanks Mystic. I started in the contest for various reasons, and for continuing reasons will not be able to take part much.

 

I note that I have only made 3 trades ... but for counting purposes it appears that an entry is one trade, and an exit is another trade. So it prints that I have made 6 trades.

 

It seems that those contestants who are showing an odd number of trades, still have a trade open in the market at the time of your screen grab.

 

Just a little more trivia from me, which you have all come to look forward to!

 

:rofl:

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It seems that those contestants who are showing an odd number of trades, still have a trade open in the market at the time of your screen grab.

 

:rofl:

 

Hello Ingot,

 

I person using two trades to enter into a complete position but exiting with only one trade won't follow this even or odd trade logic. Same with entering with one trade and exiting with two. At the end of the above combination of three trades there won't be an open position.

 

Your input is valued and appreciated.

 

Thank you.

 

Gringo

Edited by Gringo

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1 person using two trades to enter into a complete position but exiting with only one trade won't follow this even or odd trade logic. Same with entering with one trade and exiting with two. At the end of the above combination of three trades there won't be an open position.

Gringo

D'oh! Of course ... thanks mate! There are always broader ways to see things.

 

btw - my post above should have read: " I started in the contest late for various reasons... " ... it didn't make a lot of sense otherwise.

 

Cheers - GL in the contest.

 

Ingot

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Hello Ingot,

 

I person using two trades to enter into a complete position but exiting with only one trade won't follow this even or odd trade logic. Same with entering with one trade and exiting with two. At the end of the above combination of three trades there won't be an open position.

 

Your input is valued and appreciated.

 

Thank you.

 

Gringo

 

Hi Gringo,

 

 

FYI Let's say you opened two 50K long positions on a pair with the idea of TPing 1 position for 25 pips and the second position at 50 pips. It's not necessary.

You can open one position for 100k. when the trade goes 25 pips in to profit (hopefully)

you can sell 50K and this will take half your trade off the table. Either as Market or Entry since there is no hedging allowed ( oanda never allowed hedging even back in the pre, new CFTC rules.

 

Hope this helps.

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... Ingot found the Holy Grail ;)
I am in possession of the HG ... yes I am.

 

But I did not find "it" ... "it" found me.

 

It is "my" Grail, and can not be shared. Each must attract their own Grail.

 

It will come to you, but you need to present the right kind of conditions that attract it ... just as I did.

 

Patience - with yourself and with the market

Persistence in your belief in yourself and your dream

Commitment to education

Focus on your goal

Ruthlessness in discarding the mythology of trading (ie the things that do not work)

Consistency in application of your plan

Methodically apply your rules

 

In fact I think I could do a far better job of showing you how to attract your own HG,

by directing you to this thread:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/9278-your-mama-doesnt-trade-so-wise.html

 

There is a lot there ... so allow yourself a few days to absorb it.

 

Finally, in a few days I will be starting a new thread, which addresses more of the

things that you can apply practically, to make an immediate difference to your

trading results.

 

I hope I am not coming across in an arrogant fashion - the Internet can make

things appear thus. By sheer good luck more than anything, I found the trades

and got the entries that brought me to this place.

 

In the next 4 weeks, I hope to continue to attract that kind of trade to my notice.

 

To those who are not currently making startling profits ... help is at hand ...

do not give up.

 

Cheers

 

Ingot :cool:

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    • Date: 18th April 2024. Market News – Stock markets benefit from Dollar correction. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Technical buying, bargain hunting, and risk aversion helped Treasuries rally and unwind recent losses. Yields dropped from the recent 2024 highs. Asian stock markets strengthened, as the US Dollar corrected in the wake of comments from Japan’s currency chief Masato Kanda, who said G7 countries continue to stress that excessive swings and disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were harmful for economies. US Stockpiles expanded to 10-month high. The data overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented recent attack. President Joe Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum.   Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex stumbled, falling to 105.66 at the end of the day from the intraday high of 106.48. It lost ground against most of its G10 peers. There wasn’t much on the calendar to provide new direction. USDJPY lows retesting the 154 bottom! NOT an intervention yet. BoJ/MoF USDJPY intervention happens when there is more than 100+ pip move in seconds, not 50 pips. USOIL slumped by 3% near $82, as US crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels last week, hitting the highest level since last June, while gauges of fuel demand declined. Gold strengthened as the dollar weakened and bullion is trading at $2378.44 per ounce. Market Trends:   Wall Street closed in the red after opening with small corrective gains. The NASDAQ underperformed, slumping -1.15%, with the S&P500 -0.58% lower, while the Dow lost -0.12. The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng gained more than 1. European and US futures are finding buyers. A gauge of global chip stocks and AI bellwether Nvidia Corp. have both fallen into a technical correction. The TMSC reported its first profit rise in a year, after strong AI demand revived growth at the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. The main chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. recorded a 9% rise in net income, beating estimates. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
    • Date: 16th April 2024. Market News – Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows. Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected retail sales eliciting a broad sell off in the markets. Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a 50-50 chance. Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week’s declines amid the rise in yields. Investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation. There’s growing anxiety over earnings even after a big beat from Goldman Sachs. UK labor market data was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated – The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE. China grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon. Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook. Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Financial Markets Performance:   The US Dollar rallied to 106.19 after testing 106.25, gaining against JPY and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level. Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed. USOIL is flat at $85 per barrel. Market Trends:   Breaks of key technical levels exacerbated the sell off. Tech was the big loser with the NASDAQ plunging -1.79% to 15,885 while the S&P500 dropped -1.20% to 5061, with the Dow sliding -0.65% to 37,735. The S&P had the biggest 2-day sell off since March 2023. Nikkei and ASX lost -1.9% and -1.8% respectively, and the Hang Seng is down -2.1%. European bourses are down more than -1% and US futures are also in the red. CTA selling tsunami: “Just a few points lower CTAs will for the first time this year start selling in size, to add insult to injury, we are breaking major trend-lines in equities and the gamma stabilizer is totally gone.” Short term CTA threshold levels are kicking in big time according to GS. Medium term is 4873 (most important) while the long term level is at 4605. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 15th April 2024. Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict. However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict. New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70. The Yen dip against USD to 153.85. USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce. Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180. Market Trends:   Asian stock markets traded mixed, but European and US futures are slightly higher after a tough session on Friday and yields have picked up. Mainland China bourses outperformed overnight, after Beijing offered renewed regulatory support. The PBOC meanwhile left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged, while once again draining funds from the system. Nikkei slipped 1% to 39,114.19. On Friday, NASDAQ slumped -1.62% to 16,175, unwinding most of Thursday’s 1.68% jump to a new all-time high at 16,442. The S&P500 fell -1.46% and the Dow dropped 1.24%. Declines were broadbased with all 11 sectors of the S&P finishing in the red. JPMorgan Chase sank 6.5% despite reporting stronger profit in Q1. The nation’s largest bank gave a forecast for a key source of income this year that fell below Wall Street’s estimate, calling for only modest growth. Apple shipments drop by 10% in Q1. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • The morning of my last post I happened to glance over to the side and saw “...angst over the FOMC’s rate trajectory triggered a flight to safety, hence boosting the haven demand. “   http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/21621-hfmarkets-hfmcom-market-analysis-services/page/17/?tab=comments#comment-228522   I reacted, but didn’t take time to  respond then... will now --- HFBlogNews, I don’t know if you are simply aggregating the chosen narratives for the day or if it’s your own reporting... either way - “flight to safety”????  haven ?????  Re: “safety  - ”Those ‘solid rocks’ are getting so fragile a hit from a dandelion blowball might shatter them... like now nobody wants to buy longer term new issues at these rates...yet the financial media still follows the scripts... The imagery they pound day in and day out makes it look like the Fed knows what they’re doing to help ‘us’... They do know what they’re doing - but it certainly is not to help ‘us’... and it is not to ‘control’ inflation... And at some point in the not too distant future, the interest due will eat a huge portion of the ‘revenue’ Re: “haven” The defaults are coming ...  The US will not be the first to default... but it will certainly not be the very last to default !! ...Enough casual anti-white racism for the day  ... just sayin’
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