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jackb

Baffled by "Reminiscences" Believers

Regarding "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator"...(multiple picks okay)  

27 members have voted

  1. 1. Regarding "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator"...(multiple picks okay)

    • ROSO is sacred text. It’s flatly wrong to mention any negative parts of the story.
      10
    • I wasn’t aware the story ended so poorly. This definitely changes my perspective on the book.
      0
    • I, too, think my trading prowess should only be evaluated based on those times when I’m making money.
      5
    • Plunging is one of my favorite trading strategies.
      4
    • Never read ROSO and never plan to.
      8


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Many years ago when I first got into trading (before the Web existed) and began asking around about what books I should read, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator was seemingly somewhere near the top of everyone's list. Even today (and even on this forum) this continues to be true.

 

After reading it many years ago, I was fascinated by the story and wanted to know what other greatness the "Boy Plunger" went on to achieve from the point where the book left off. Sadly, it turns out that Livermore ended up losing all the money he had made during the '29 crash and eventually went bankrupt in '34. And it wasn't just Livermore's trading account that was on a vicious rollercoaster. He went through 5 marriages before he finally decided that life's ride was too much. He committed suicide in 1940.

 

Ever since learning the whole story, I have always been quick to ask of those that recommend the book whether or not they know of the ugly epilogue. Twenty years later and I still get the same response of "no" (despite the ease that Web now offers to research such matters).

 

As such, I'm not sure what to make of it all. To recommend only the book as some model of trading wisdom without reference to Livermore's sequel and final act, I find to be inappropriate and highly suspect. However, there is some truly great psychological wisdom to be discovered in telling the whole story. As far as trading wisdom, the book speaks volumes about inappropriate money management more so than it does in terms of trading strategies.

 

Thank you in advance for checking out the poll and for any feedback.

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jackb, the fact that JL later lost the plot (was it bipolar disorder) really takes nothing away from what the book teaches and the insight it gives. Like anything else I am taught, I take from it what I find useful and discard or ignore what I don't. I do not believe until I can prove it for myself.

 

The book is one that every trader in training should read. That and probably Edwards and Magee.

 

EL

Edited by electroniclocal
typo

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Your Poll Questions seem to be tailored rather specifically to get a specific result. I liked the story of it, and the techniques that he employed to gain an edge and keep from being influenced by others. There are many excellent parallels for trading today. One example of this is the length to which he maintained his independence from Wall Street noise. Consider the parallel with respect to the "media" and ignoring the influence of "experts".

 

The fate of Livermore lies more in his mental instability than his profession. But like any trend follower... and he held on to positions like a trend follower... the strategy has large swings. He would get locked into huge positions without enough liquidity to exit. Cotton for example where he controlled the market. That is quite a bit different than any trader these days. No one is bigger than the market.

 

The one question in your poll that seems missing is: " Have You Learned anything from Reminisences which helps your trading today." and I can say without hesitation that his notion of "Making more by sitting (in a position) than by trading" is what I think about when the thoughts of taking early profits flow through my head.

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Reminiscences is held in such high esteem by market operators because it is comprehensive in its depiction of Livermore - it is emphatically not one sided. He himself tells us that far and greed lead to ruin, and then throughout the course of the narrative shows how he himself had repeatedly ruined by the very things he advises his readers that they must control.

 

Reminiscences was not a "How to..." type reference book or instruction manual. It does teach, but it does so subtly, in the manner in which a novel or play or Platonic dialogue teaches. That is, one must read "between the lines," so to speak, and interpret the book as one does a piece of literature, which, of course, is not the same as reading it literally as a "do everything JL does here." Especially when he himself is so critical of so much of what he does.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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I agree with Bakrob99 that the poll has a bias to achieve a certain result.

 

I have read ROSO a couple of times, and it is nothing but a good read about a trader, and about an era where bucket shops and high rollers gambled away their lives.

 

I would not recommend ROSO as a trading "must read" for anything other than an insight into the kind of greedy actions of bucket shop operators, the traditions of which are still carried out today by operators like Goldman Sachs.

 

Today, we have operators building huge computer complexes right next to NYSE in order to maximise the speed at which they are able to intercept and manipulate market orders. And we see the churning of clients' accounts and the use of algorithms to step up/down the price in order to achieve volume, for which they receive huge rebates; and in order to achieve a respectable VWAP for clients.

 

In Livermore's day the bucket shops used the telephone and the tape to gain an edge over the sucker stock gambler.

 

Today they use computers and the widening of spread to knock out trades at strategic levels. And the electronic triggering of stop-loss orders, which leads to a cascade of sell orders, followed by the fortuitous triggering of clairvoyantly-placed conditional buy orders, is still happening today.

 

NYSE Euronext > Exchanges >

 

I would venture that what went on in LIvermore's day pales into obscurity when compared to what those who are "doing God's work" get up to today.

 

I'm doing 'God's work'. Meet Mr Goldman Sachs - Times Online

 

These people are untouchable. The model Goldman Sach uses, is to head-hunt the brightest young things from Harvard and the like, and train them up to be brilliant derivatives traders and super-salespeople.

 

Next, they get a ticket to Washington, where they are able to effectively block any legislative attempt to clean up the Financial Services Industry by Congress. Neither side of US Politics has been able to get any reform past the house in recent years, that might have a moderating effect on the antics of Goldman Sachs in their relentless and ruthless march for financial glory.

 

Finally, after years of faithful political service to the company in Washington, the employee is welcomed back into the GS fold, and can be asured of the very best lifestyle money can buy until death us do part.

 

This is not fairytale stuff ... has anyone heard of Hank Poulsen, the former CEO of Goldmans Sachs, and the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States of America?

 

You don't have to read all of this link ... just scroll down to the "Conflict of Interest" item:

 

Henry Paulson - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

Particularly poignant is this:

 

"The Goldman Sachs benefit from AIG bailout was recently estimated as USD 12.9 billion and GS was the largest recipient of the public funds from AIG.[35] Creating the collateralized debt obligations (CDO's) forming the basis of the current crisis was an active part of Goldman Sach's business during Paulson's tenure as CEO. Opponents[who?] argued that Paulson remained a Wall Street insider who maintained close friendships with higher-ups of the bailout beneficiaries."

 

Now, why would you idolise a book like ROSO, when the financial manipulation going on today has left the corruption of Livermore's day far behind?

 

The true lesson to be learned here, is to be aware with whom you are playing, when you dabble as a wannbe trader in financial markets.

 

Sorry for the long post, but it had to be said.

 

A sixth question for the poll should have been added:

 

Did you gain any useful information from ROSO that could assist your trading today?

 

I believe the overwhelming response to that question would have been a large "NO".

 

As such, the book is overrated, and nothing more than a good bedtime story, for those who like to read about quaint historical figures and their antics. The real financial world story today would appear like a horror story if compared to Livermore's experiences.

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George Kodak Eastman also ended his own life, all be it under different circumstances.....so I would not think it fair to judge his great acts and lessons to be learnt from based off his final act.

The nature of speculation and risk taking means that there will be multitudes of failure along the way, maybe the ultimate lesson is that risking it all will result in both spectacular gains and spectacular blowups.......

you can choose to be more cautious.

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I agree with Bakrob99 -- there is no poll result I can take which freflects my view. Which is that it Reminiscences is a great read with some wisdom to be gleaned, and JL's failures, in life or in trading, do not diminish that for me.

 

I was aware of his later life downtrend, but that wouldn't stop me reading the book, assigning the same value to it as if he had fewer problems, nor recommending it to anyone elase on that basis.

 

I think you need to extend your poll options to account for those who don't agree that the whole experience is negative.

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I agree with most other replies here. It's a fine line between genius and insanity and to try and marry the book to the man is a mistake in my opinion. A great many successful and talented men have taken their own life. Hemingway blew his head off with a shotgun. Does that make his literature any less readable?

 

Works of art are ultimately judged by the public for whom they are made. Seems to me the public has passed their verdict on Reminiscences. It's a classic must read. What I would look at and inspect here, is your own emotional reaction to the story behind the story and the need to create this poll. Perhaps it can give you some insight into your own trading and how you view wealth, success and failure. I think the results of that introspection would be much more valuable than the results of this poll.

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The book "Jesse Livermore Speculator King" by Sarnoff tells a more believable story. The bulk of Livermore's wealth/success came from operating pools of stock for groups of wealthy syndicates. Much of the types of stock manipulations he did in the 20's became illegal in the 30's with the formation of the SEC.

 

Contrary to popular belief, the book also says that Livermore did not make a killing in the '29 crash as Kennedy and Baruch had done. It seems that he was too hedged. He had large long positions which offset all those great shorts he got off.

 

I think it's obvious that Richard Smitten's books are overly biased in favor or believing all the things that he personally wanted to believe about Livermore. Ironically, he was "smitten" with Livermore. It's in Smitten's own personal interest to glorify Livermore in print. It appeals to people's love of fantasies about making money from taking high risks.

 

I enjoyed reading ROSO a few times as I was learning how to trade. But the more I gained in my own experiences in day trading futures, the more I saw that Livermore, as told by Sarnoff, liked to leave out the details of these popular stories which would have otherwise cast Livermore in a dimmer light than the way he liked to recount them.

 

Another lesson to learn from ROSO...even if you find financial success in this life, you can easily lose it all again if you persist in spending money like a drunken sailor.

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Reminiscences is a great example of investor psychology and its pitfalls.It also exemplifies how trend following can lead to great success if adhered to.By the way,Livermore had millions left when he died both in cash and had given his wife a trust

account worth millions which she blew up.The fact that Reminiscences is recommended still today by some of the greatest traders in the world(who are not dead or broke by the way!) should speak for itself.

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Yes, I am fully aware of the later years of Livermore's life and his untimely, tragic death. I am also aware that he went bankrupt and aware that he also made back his money and paid off his creditors even though he was not required to do so.

 

There is no question that his life was a mess and that often translated into the trading blow ups that he had. However, all that does nothing to take away from his brilliance as a trader as well as the masterpiece Reminiscences. There are gems located throughout that book, overall strategies for trading - not tactics - but strategies, and warnings of things to avoid. You can see Livermore's strategies at work in people like Nicholas Darvas and Bill O'Neil. In fact, the latter gives quite a bit of credit to Livermore for helping establish the CAN SLIM foundational strategy. With endorsements like that, in addition to other very successful traders, who are no doubt aware of the entire Livermore story, there is nothing to be baffled about. Reminiscences is a masterwork that has stood the test of time.

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SOHO is a fictionalized account of a person's life up to his mid-40's. Unless you've also read the Sarnoff book, based on independent research about the real person and not these Richard Smitten lovey/dovey "family ties" related books, it's easy to be misled by what Livermore actually did vs. what others said he did. He was a total news hound, embellishing any big play he was involved in to make it seem as though he had a magic touch. He didn't, but it helped to attract more money for him to, ahem, "manage". He won big, lost big and spent the majority of gains he ever made like a sailor on perpetual leave in Bangkok. He hung around the rich in their social playgrounds so he could either get their big trading ideas or what was going on in the manipulation world. It was a very different time and place (pre-1930) than the markets we see today...the land of no SEC.

 

Let's face it, 1906 was a complete luck-out fortune made because of the San Fran earthquake. Livermore was being financially backed (NOT a "lone hand", by the way) and he was totally against the ropes on his Union Pacific short when serendipity intervened. Now, who wouldn't rather hear of the SOHO account of the New Jersey boardwalk vacation stroll to the broker's office out of sheer boredom story than the reality of Livermore being a hair's breath from having his b@lls nailed to a fence post on the next short squeeze? I'll go for a re-read of the SOHO story any day of the week! It's fiction and fiction loves to play with your imagination.

 

I'm not disputing the fundamental principles of trend following as laid out in SOHO or that Livermore was a fake in the sense that he never made millions at any given time in his career. I'm saying that most of Livermore's success came from (now) illegal manipulations of the market. It's not hard to look like a market genius when you have a large pool of shares tied up in a stock of that era and you're pretty much calling all the zigs and zags because of the size you're swinging around.

 

The most important thing you can do to keep your head straight when you hear 'this story' or 'that story' about other people's successes in life is to trust that Occam's Razor is about the closest thing you'll get to the truth without knowing all of the facts firsthand.

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... it's easy to be misled by what Livermore actually did vs. what others said he did. He was a total news hound, embellishing any big play he was involved in to make it seem as though he had a magic touch ... He hung around the rich in their social playgrounds so he could either get their big trading ideas or what was going on in the manipulation world.

 

The most important thing you can do to keep your head straight when you hear 'this story' or 'that story' about other people's successes in life is to trust that Occam's Razor is about the closest thing you'll get to the truth without knowing all of the facts firsthand.

 

I have paraphrased your post Steve, to highlight an important point that any/all of the accounts bring to light - and that is the passion Livermore seemed to have for the markets, and winning at any cost.

 

In order to win, he didn't seem to be sitting back and waiting for the information to come to him. He went all out looking for it, befriending those whose coat-tails he knew would carry him to fortune in trading. In short, Livermore needed an edge, and once he found that edge (insider information) he exploited it for all he could.

 

Contrast/compare that with the market geniuses and marketeers today.

 

They too have an edge, but to be a successful insider, you have to have connections, and you have to have financial batting power. Unless you are a Goldman or a Morgan-Chase, you will never get the kind of information, or the kind of impunity it takes to "succeed" in financial markets.

 

Even the rogue marketeers of the false systems that abound on any Google Internet search of "Forex Trading", are exploiting an edge - that of the gullibility and desire pf mug gamblers for easy profits.

 

So we fall back on the other "legacies" Livermore seems to have left his disciples and apprentices:

 

1) The work ethic - nothing comes except by hard work, and perhaps serendipity

2) Passion - unrelenting pursuit of an idea or a goal can not fail but to yield to you persistence.

3) Vision, determination, commitment and sheer effort of the will can deliver what wishful thinking can not.

 

Maybe I am painting a rosier picture of the rogue than he deserves, but there is a saying from the Good Book: "Whatever your hand finds to do, do it with all your might... " and didn't Livermore do that?

 

I would suggest that those who follow system-after-system, signal service-after-signal service, and never truly put in the hard work necessary to break through to successful trading really do not deserve to succeed.

 

I would put those why try, but fail, far above those who never seriously tried at all.

In that respect, Livermore does deserve a respected place in the annals of trading history.

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Many years ago when I first got into trading (before the Web existed) and began asking around about what books I should read, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator was seemingly somewhere near the top of everyone's list. Even today (and even on this forum) this continues to be true.

 

After reading it many years ago, I was fascinated by the story and wanted to know what other greatness the "Boy Plunger" went on to achieve from the point where the book left off. Sadly, it turns out that Livermore ended up losing all the money he had made during the '29 crash and eventually went bankrupt in '34. And it wasn't just Livermore's trading account that was on a vicious rollercoaster. He went through 5 marriages before he finally decided that life's ride was too much. He committed suicide in 1940.

 

Ever since learning the whole story, I have always been quick to ask of those that recommend the book whether or not they know of the ugly epilogue. Twenty years later and I still get the same response of "no" (despite the ease that Web now offers to research such matters).

 

As such, I'm not sure what to make of it all. To recommend only the book as some model of trading wisdom without reference to Livermore's sequel and final act, I find to be inappropriate and highly suspect. However, there is some truly great psychological wisdom to be discovered in telling the whole story. As far as trading wisdom, the book speaks volumes about inappropriate money management more so than it does in terms of trading strategies.

 

Thank you in advance for checking out the poll and for any feedback.

 

He won and lost fortunes several times. One of the greatest lessons is how not to approach risk and position sizing. It is crammed full of lessons and wisdom not only in the accounts of his successes but of his failures.

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SOHO is a fictionalized account of a person's life up to his mid-40's. Unless you've also read the Sarnoff book, based on independent research about the real person and not these Richard Smitten lovey/dovey "family ties" related books, it's easy to be misled by what Livermore actually did vs. what others said he did. He was a total news hound, embellishing any big play he was involved in to make it seem as though he had a magic touch. He didn't, but it helped to attract more money for him to, ahem, "manage". He won big, lost big and spent the majority of gains he ever made like a sailor on perpetual leave in Bangkok. He hung around the rich in their social playgrounds so he could either get their big trading ideas or what was going on in the manipulation world. It was a very different time and place (pre-1930) than the markets we see today...the land of no SEC.

 

Let's face it, 1906 was a complete luck-out fortune made because of the San Fran earthquake. Livermore was being financially backed (NOT a "lone hand", by the way) and he was totally against the ropes on his Union Pacific short when serendipity intervened. Now, who wouldn't rather hear of the SOHO account of the New Jersey boardwalk vacation stroll to the broker's office out of sheer boredom story than the reality of Livermore being a hair's breath from having his b@lls nailed to a fence post on the next short squeeze? I'll go for a re-read of the SOHO story any day of the week! It's fiction and fiction loves to play with your imagination.

 

I'm not disputing the fundamental principles of trend following as laid out in SOHO or that Livermore was a fake in the sense that he never made millions at any given time in his career. I'm saying that most of Livermore's success came from (now) illegal manipulations of the market. It's not hard to look like a market genius when you have a large pool of shares tied up in a stock of that era and you're pretty much calling all the zigs and zags because of the size you're swinging around.

 

The most important thing you can do to keep your head straight when you hear 'this story' or 'that story' about other people's successes in life is to trust that Occam's Razor is about the closest thing you'll get to the truth without knowing all of the facts firsthand.

 

I am really glad you posted this and not me.

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My mentors told me of his fate at the time they recommended the book. It's still the best read ever written about trading, I've drawn more from it than any other book. It's not just his story, it's his story of his insights into his step be step education as a trader, both from his own experience, and the stories he tells of others that gave him his insights along the way.

 

It's not a book that will teach you how to trade, but it's a great guide to refer back to are re-read at regular intervals while you are on the journey.

 

It's a bit of a "Do as I say not as I do" tale in some respects. Sometimes people bet big and get named trader of the century. If they lose, as most gamblers do, they just fade into the crowd.

 

Reminiscences is merely one source to draw inspiration from, but it one of the best, and importantly it was written in a time long before computers and indicators clouded peoples views of the market.

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If JL traded today he would likely go down in a blaze of glory like Ivan Boesky or other current day hedge fund managers who are being investigated for insider trading activities.

 

Unlike, the current day cowboys, JL went broke while trading on inside information. That tells me that he relied a little to much on the information he garnered than on the information that the market was showing him at the time. In other words, he thought he knew that the market for a stock should be going up because of a looming favorable news announcement, instead of down as a different market participant might conclude by observing price and volume or whatever else it is that one uses to determine trend. It seems like he may have bought into one too many false rumors and relied on that information and was ultimately done in by his poor judgment.

 

There is a little too much of the do as i say and not as I do aspect to the book. Sort of like taking advice on how to be a good, sober dad and husband from an alcoholic, abusive skirt chaser. He is probably just assuming that the opposite of what he did was better than what he did. That doesn't help me much.

 

 

MM

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hmm, this was on my short list of future books to read, but after reading all these comments i think i'll move it to the end of the list. i appreciate all the intelligent responses; i'm glad i joined this forum :-)

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hmm, this was on my short list of future books to read, but after reading all these comments i think i'll move it to the end of the list. i appreciate all the intelligent responses; i'm glad i joined this forum :-)

 

Of course that is your prerogative. Win or loose it arguably has more trading wisdom than any other book published. It has several different levels. If you read Market Wizards you will see it is often recommended in fact one trader kept a stack of them and it was mandatory reading for his new traders.

 

As for the 'manipulations' now being illegal, that is largely guff. Large positions are accumulated and distributed in pretty much the same way now as they where then.

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As for the 'manipulations' now being illegal, that is largely guff. Large positions are accumulated and distributed in pretty much the same way now as they where then.

 

DB banned yesterday from trading the KOSPI for 6 months for their manipulation that netted them a tidy profit.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-23/deutsche-bank-gets-six-month-korean-proprietary-trade-ban-over-stock-rout.html

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Ha! arguably because they are not good at working the market they got caught. A quote from the article “As trading gets more complex, it’s almost impossible to have perfect rules and systems in place to regulate it.”

 

Also what they actually got done for (or so it seems from the article) is reporting issues.

"Deutsche Bank breached stock exchange rules governing the disclosure of computer-driven trades by filing a report one minute late that day"

 

So the 'manipulation' was OK the reporting was not. Now they have tried to legislate around it by introducing limits on holdings for institutions (7500 cars) and individuals (5000 cars). Can't see that ending well for anyone.

 

Anyway interesting find.

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I was thinking the filing may have been related to the trade, but maybe not. "Oops didn't we tell you about that massive block trade we just did? I'm sure we filed that paperwork..."

 

I think it's fair enough to have controls when poor liquidity is leading to incorrect price discovery like the May plunge. I'm sure they will come up with half arsed solutions that will be worked around instantly though. There was something in the news the other day about a limit on price moves for S&P stocks (% move in given intraday time) to try and prevent another May 2010 occurrence.

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I liked the poll ;) All the options are good and and few good options aren't even listed - such as "None of the above" Since I can't answer more than once though, I won't answer at all .

 

ROSO is a story. True or false doesn't matter. What matters is how each reader's individual mind fills in the 'gaps'...

What I learned reading it after trading for 7-8 years was vastly different from what I learned when I read it as beginner, because of the way I filled in the gaps differently each time...

In fact, if I had a do over I would not have read the book as a beginner.

 

The 'structure' is sort of VSA-like ( Tom style )

Jesse was in 'movement' more than most ppl ever are - then or now.

He never learned to 'breathe' properly ;)

 

For me, ROSO is in the top 100 trading books - maybe even top 50.

The book would be no where near the top of any top 10 recommended reading list I built generally or for any individual trader.

It wouldn't even be on a list I built for someone DSM tagged with a bipolar disorder... likely the book would paradoxically help him stay blind to the 'trading' challenges he and Jesse share...

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    • Date: 18th April 2024. Market News – Stock markets benefit from Dollar correction. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Technical buying, bargain hunting, and risk aversion helped Treasuries rally and unwind recent losses. Yields dropped from the recent 2024 highs. Asian stock markets strengthened, as the US Dollar corrected in the wake of comments from Japan’s currency chief Masato Kanda, who said G7 countries continue to stress that excessive swings and disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were harmful for economies. US Stockpiles expanded to 10-month high. The data overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented recent attack. President Joe Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum.   Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex stumbled, falling to 105.66 at the end of the day from the intraday high of 106.48. It lost ground against most of its G10 peers. There wasn’t much on the calendar to provide new direction. USDJPY lows retesting the 154 bottom! NOT an intervention yet. BoJ/MoF USDJPY intervention happens when there is more than 100+ pip move in seconds, not 50 pips. USOIL slumped by 3% near $82, as US crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels last week, hitting the highest level since last June, while gauges of fuel demand declined. Gold strengthened as the dollar weakened and bullion is trading at $2378.44 per ounce. Market Trends:   Wall Street closed in the red after opening with small corrective gains. The NASDAQ underperformed, slumping -1.15%, with the S&P500 -0.58% lower, while the Dow lost -0.12. The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng gained more than 1. European and US futures are finding buyers. A gauge of global chip stocks and AI bellwether Nvidia Corp. have both fallen into a technical correction. The TMSC reported its first profit rise in a year, after strong AI demand revived growth at the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. The main chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. recorded a 9% rise in net income, beating estimates. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
    • Date: 16th April 2024. Market News – Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows. Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected retail sales eliciting a broad sell off in the markets. Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a 50-50 chance. Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week’s declines amid the rise in yields. Investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation. There’s growing anxiety over earnings even after a big beat from Goldman Sachs. UK labor market data was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated – The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE. China grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon. Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook. Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Financial Markets Performance:   The US Dollar rallied to 106.19 after testing 106.25, gaining against JPY and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level. Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed. USOIL is flat at $85 per barrel. Market Trends:   Breaks of key technical levels exacerbated the sell off. Tech was the big loser with the NASDAQ plunging -1.79% to 15,885 while the S&P500 dropped -1.20% to 5061, with the Dow sliding -0.65% to 37,735. The S&P had the biggest 2-day sell off since March 2023. Nikkei and ASX lost -1.9% and -1.8% respectively, and the Hang Seng is down -2.1%. European bourses are down more than -1% and US futures are also in the red. CTA selling tsunami: “Just a few points lower CTAs will for the first time this year start selling in size, to add insult to injury, we are breaking major trend-lines in equities and the gamma stabilizer is totally gone.” Short term CTA threshold levels are kicking in big time according to GS. Medium term is 4873 (most important) while the long term level is at 4605. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 15th April 2024. Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict. However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict. New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70. The Yen dip against USD to 153.85. USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce. Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180. Market Trends:   Asian stock markets traded mixed, but European and US futures are slightly higher after a tough session on Friday and yields have picked up. Mainland China bourses outperformed overnight, after Beijing offered renewed regulatory support. The PBOC meanwhile left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged, while once again draining funds from the system. Nikkei slipped 1% to 39,114.19. On Friday, NASDAQ slumped -1.62% to 16,175, unwinding most of Thursday’s 1.68% jump to a new all-time high at 16,442. The S&P500 fell -1.46% and the Dow dropped 1.24%. Declines were broadbased with all 11 sectors of the S&P finishing in the red. JPMorgan Chase sank 6.5% despite reporting stronger profit in Q1. The nation’s largest bank gave a forecast for a key source of income this year that fell below Wall Street’s estimate, calling for only modest growth. Apple shipments drop by 10% in Q1. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • The morning of my last post I happened to glance over to the side and saw “...angst over the FOMC’s rate trajectory triggered a flight to safety, hence boosting the haven demand. “   http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/21621-hfmarkets-hfmcom-market-analysis-services/page/17/?tab=comments#comment-228522   I reacted, but didn’t take time to  respond then... will now --- HFBlogNews, I don’t know if you are simply aggregating the chosen narratives for the day or if it’s your own reporting... either way - “flight to safety”????  haven ?????  Re: “safety  - ”Those ‘solid rocks’ are getting so fragile a hit from a dandelion blowball might shatter them... like now nobody wants to buy longer term new issues at these rates...yet the financial media still follows the scripts... The imagery they pound day in and day out makes it look like the Fed knows what they’re doing to help ‘us’... They do know what they’re doing - but it certainly is not to help ‘us’... and it is not to ‘control’ inflation... And at some point in the not too distant future, the interest due will eat a huge portion of the ‘revenue’ Re: “haven” The defaults are coming ...  The US will not be the first to default... but it will certainly not be the very last to default !! ...Enough casual anti-white racism for the day  ... just sayin’
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