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The Situation in the Eurozone Remains the Main Driver for the Market - Forex Analysis

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The situation in the Eurozone remains the main driver for the market. The European peripheral countries and their debt problems keep influencing the stock market, causing risk aversion. Tuesday’s trading results turned out to be almost the same as on the previous sessions with the exception that the yen was the only currency to win against the dollar, and the reason for that were probably fears that China would raise its interest rated. As a result, the yen became attractive as a reserve currency, so the greenback managed to win only against the pound and the euro. The US economic data, released on Tuesday, turned out to be rather positive for the dollar too. As for today, the investors are looking forward to the news on employment – Fed’s labor report is being released this Friday. Of importance to the market will also be ADP . ? ?????? ???????? ????? ????? ADP private sector employment data. Growth by 69 thousand is anticipated in November, after the previous +43 thousand in October, which can be considered as a positive factor for the American dollar. News from ISM is also about to come out and manufacturing PMI for November is also there – a decrease from 56.9 to 56.3 is anticipated here. Fed’s Beige Book, which is likely to bring the information on the situation in the regions, is being released right at the end of the weekly trading session. It’s worth noting, that the dollar’s trading slowed down a bit on Tuesday’s session and the investors didn’t eager so much to buy the dollar any more, and this fact suggests to expect a possible large-scale correction.

 

 

EUR

 

 

After the situation with Ireland and its problems cleared up a little bit, the market switched its attention to the problems of some other European countries, like Portugal, Spain and Italy, which brought more negative moods to the euro. One leads to another and, like it usually happens, S&P rating agency threatened to put France on the list of countries “at risk”, to crown it all. Messages from the Portuguese central bank, which warned of a possible financial instability fueled the market even more. Today’s economic statistics will bring Germany’s and the Eurozone’s final manufacturing PMI which are likely to remain the same in November 58.9 (for Germany) and 55.5 (for the Euro zone). Germany’s retail sales increased month over month by 2.3% m/m in October after the previous -1.8% m/m and this can be considered positive for the European currency. Nevertheless, the market moods towards the euro are not likely to change significantly in the nearest future. Standard & Poor's is currently considering a possibility to downgrade Portuguese investment credit ratings, and these news will most likely keep negative to the euro.

 

 

GBP

 

 

Talks that financial situation in the Euro zone was getting worse put the pound under pressure, so the currency closed the session with a decline against the dollar, but the losses weren’t that big – probably as a result of the news, coming from Ireland – the country has close economic ties with Britain and the fact that the situation with Ireland financial issues had cleared up, supported the sterling. There weren’t any significant statistics from the Islands yesterday, but today the market will surely get some piece of news. Manufacturing PMI for November, coming out today, is likely to decrease from 54.9 to 54.8. Besides that, according to the data, received from Nationwide, Britain’s housing market results leave much to be desired – November index registered -0.3% m/m, 0.4% y/y after the later -0.7% m/m, 1.4% y/y. Still, taking into account technical factors, that suggest a correction in the GBP/USD pair, there is a chance of profit fixation in this instrument.

 

 

JPY

 

 

The Japanese currency grew against the dollar on Tuesday’s session as a result of decreased risk appetites because of the US poor employment data which turned out to be 5.1% in October after the previous 5.0% in September. Besides that, the US government bonds are not that high-yielding any more, which made the investors go back to the yen as a funding currency for the carry trade. Fears that China would make some changes to its monetary policy keep influencing the Japanese currency too – recent rumors that Beijing will have to raise its interest rates by 200 basis points through a bomb into the market. Today’s statistics brought data on vehicle sales, which turned out to be rather disturbing – the index dropped to -31.0% y/y in November after the later -26.7% y/y. As for the yen’s positions, taking into account high-yielding currencies highly possible corrections, the yen has all chances to become more attractive as a funding currency and, as a result, decline even further.

 

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thnks brother to share about the forex i really like your information and i hope that you will keep it up and will share more information as like this

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Hi nazia1230,

 

Thanks for getting involved. However you should try to stick to the thread topic. So links about other stuff like this are not especially needed. Also, it's fine to directly thank people, but I suggest clicking the 'Thanks!' button. If you want to get involved, maybe it would be an idea to go over to the introduction thread in the beginners forum.

 

Thanks,

 

TheNegotiator.

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