Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

MadMarketScientist

GBPUSD Trading

Recommended Posts

Guest epic research

Sell gbp/inr below 102.61 tgts 102.49, 102.34 sl 102.76 (cmp 102.67).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My current view of GBP/USD:

 

Place Order to Buy GBP/USD @ 1.6627

Stop @ 1.6567

Close ½ @ 1.6657, move stop to breakeven

Close rest @ 1.6850

 

I expect the U.S. dollar to continue to sell-off in the coming week as traders readjust their positions in reaction to the latest non-farm payrolls report. All of the major currencies should benefit from dollar weakness but with a busy U.K. calendar next week, GBP/USD is in play. The currency pair is trading near its 2 year high and if this level is broken, it could be smooth sailing to 1.67.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Technicals

 

Monthly

I expect any drop onto the ascending magenta TL to have triggered a support that would allow for price to break north of the 61.8 FE. This currently seems to have been verified, with the monthly candle, so far, appearing very strong.

I would not be surprised to see price hit the 76.4 Fein the coming weeks, and thus also break the resistance zone that was last seen in February 2011.

 

Weekly

The drop a fortnight ago onto the ascending magenta TL provided a very nice pin to play off. Last week’s surge acted like a rocket up Cable’s arse; the current breather at the high of two years ago maybe allowing for Cable to enjoy the view.

 

Daily

Again, the kiss of the ascending magenta TL was a little undecided, with the ascending Guppy profile being broken for a few days.

Thankfully Carney’s blarney helped out… amongst the plethora of fundamentals flying around.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CBC News - Uncertainty grips Ukraine military in Crimea

 

I think tomorrow's vote will trigger a chain of political unrest, beginning with the veto from Russia about the "illegal" vote and China's abstain. I would think that these two powerful countries have something planned. Isolation of Russia does not mean that Russia is alone. They still have China as a powerful ally. With these in mind, I'm struggling to see how GBPUSD will continue up soon. Reason being, in a situation of political unrest the market seems to see GBP as a risky currency and tend to switch to "safe haven" JPY, USD and gold. Perhaps, I will stay away from GBP and switch to easier pair, XAUUSD

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ive been looking at hourly and monthly chart. Hourly looks like its hits support three times and that we are looking for a retrace upwards but monthly looks like we are about to start a downward trend. Am I reading this right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

I think GBP has been running on fumes and will lose some ground.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The best selling (for a while) is likely in May,

as its always in May

maybe not for the Dow (although last yr was likely only an anomaly as too many were predicating it on tv)

 

but for the GBP and Euro, they nearly always sell-off in May

how far is anyone's guess - but both the GBP and Euro need a fairly decent pull-back, otherwise both may harm exports in the near future,

the Central Banks may finally give the nod for a bigger pull-back to Weekly support,

but will have to see....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1.7000 seems to be very real number by the end of the week. I am not trading gbp/usd at these levels though. Better wait for corrections to buy or clear technical reversal patterns to sell. Non Farm payrolls could help push the pair to critical 1.7000.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What Could Drive GBP to 1.70

As we have seen over the past week, it does take much to drive the British pound to fresh highs. Despite slower growth in construction activity during the month of April, sterling held onto this week's gains, ending the day just shy of its 4.5 year highs. Based on the overall momentum of the currency and the weakness of the U.S. dollar, we would not be surprised if GBP/USD hit 1.70 in the coming week. There's no shortage of catalysts including the PMI services report, industrial production and trade balance. If service sector activity accelerated last month, it could trigger an extended rally in the currency. The Bank of England also has a monetary policy announcement but they are widely expect to leave policy unchanged which makes it a nonevent for the British pound. Softer U.S. data or dovish comments from Janet Yellen could also drive GBP/USD higher. Its worth noting that speculators took profits on some of their long sterling positions this past week when the currency pair struggled to break 1.6850 according to the CFTC but now that it has, we would not be surprise if those long positions were reloaded.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It might have bottomed near term at 1.8834/36 and managing to rally beyond 1.90 again. And if someone expects this, he may not be wrong because stochastic made a positive cross, a doji plus a bullish candle but thats not too enough.

All in all..Bullish trend is not confirmed, it has to make a close above 1.8967, things are pretty much trapped within 1.8834/36 low / bottom and 1.8965/67 high / top. And only IF bears enter to take control now and push prices lower again, most likely we will break the 1.8834.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Breakout in the GBPUSD began at the beginning of September 2013. It was then the daily price, around the 1.55 handle, bolted through the 200 day SMA, and commenced the 1500 pip trek to the cusp of 1.70. It should be noted the OI in the CME futures market was about 150K in early September 2013, 90K less than the current OI.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Asians are slowly getting ready to break the low on eurusd, just look at the PA. I think the asian session will end somewhere around 1.3570, so if I'm lucky, I will be able to close my gbp short under 1.67, the deeper, the better. I will feel more comfortable long, because USDX daily is preparing for a drop, so both eur and gbp would spike up. Curious if tomorrow goes as expected, I will probably set the SL for a little profit and wait it out.

 

EDIT: SL set at 1.6754, TP 1.6665, but I will probably stay up to check on it and close below 1.67 if needed or move SL to 1.6703 once it breaks down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The main resistance zone for the GBP/USD is between 1.7040-50. While the currency pair broke through this zone today, it ended the North American trading session right near it, which means that it has not experienced a clean break. Technically, we really need to see GBP/USD close above 1.7050 to open the door for a stronger move to its next resistance level near 1.7350, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2007 to 2009 decline. We think this will happen eventually but if GBP/USD fails to close above 1.7050 in the next 24 hours, a deeper retracement is possible for before a stronger move higher.

gbpusd62014.png.9ba37e9562635d4f4dcf4f25556383bd.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Price range still between the support and resistance 1.7000 and 1.7060 i think its hard to predict a trend without a break. price is going to test resistance again so i hope we can have a break over resistance line so we can see 1.71 levels ..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • This looks like a beginner question, so I'll say... Depends. Stock market studies usually focus on one of two areas; Fundamental or Technical. The fundamental trader wants to know all about the company: Who is the CEO? What does the history of company earnings look like? How does the company compare with others in the same or similar business? They often read and study the company's annual reports. The technician usually doesn't care much about the company details. If the stock price is going up, they should be a buyer. If the stock price is going down, they should be a seller. A small portion of investors believe they should know both disciplines. If you don't know which of the above are most appealing to you, ask about good books on general markets that include both fundamental and technical trading philosophies and techniques. Or ask about good fundamental books. Or ask about good technical trading books. I have about 800 texts. About 80% are technical, 20% are fundamentally inclined, so I wouldn't know what to suggest without more information from you.
    • Renko Full Throttle PRO IndicatorNew Set is released for EURUSD 30 Min Chart: Recorded +650 Pips profit in the last year with28 total trades23 trades hit TP5 trades hit SLSuccess rate is 82%    
    • The HotForex VIP Partners Rewards Contest is back! Dear Client, The HotForex VIP Contest is YOUR chance to win fantastic luxurious prizes by being the Partner with the clients that deposit and trade the most! Earn the returns you deserve, in addition to your usual commissions, by entering this exclusive contest today. Win the Grand Prize of a trip for 2 to Cyprus to meet your broker or many more luxurious prizes worth a total of 100,000 USD! Registrations are open NOW! Terms and Conditions Apply We wish you the best of luck! The HF Partners Team
    • Date : 11th November 2019. Events to Look Out For Next Week 11th November 2019.Important events are coming up this week, with UK, China and US inflation and GDP releases.Monday – 11 November 2019 Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK growth has “slowed materially” this year due to Brexit uncertainty and global trade wars. September forecasts see GDP growth steady, while the preliminary outcome for Q3 is anticipated to slow down. Tuesday – 12 November 2019 ILO & Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK Earnings with the bonus-excluded figure are seen unchanged at 3.8% y/y in the three months to September. UK ILO unemployment is expected steady at 3.9%. ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Economic Sentiment for November is projected at -22.7 from the -22.8 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though is expected to decline slightly further to -32.5 from -23.5. A lower than expected outcome ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment. Wednesday – 13 November 2019 Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (NZD, GMT 01:00) – The RBNZ is widely expected to proceed with a 25 bp cut to 0.75% as it continues to ease policy amid the slowing in growth. However, it will be interesting to see whether RBNZ will signal further easing in contrast with the latest encouraging economic data. Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The UK CPI is expected to rebound to a 1.8% y/y rate in October after dipping to 1.7% in September and August from 2.1% in July. Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.3% October headline CPI rise is anticipated with a 0.2% core price increase, following respective September readings of flat and 0.1%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y increase of 1.7% for a third consecutive month, just as core prices rise 2.4% y/y for a third consecutive month. An up-tilt in y/y gains into Q1 of 2020 is expected due to harder comparisons and some lift from tariff increases that should leave gains in the 2.4% area, which may help ease concerns about persistent inflation undershoots of the Fed’s 2% objective. Powell’s 2-day Testimony (USD, GMT 16:00) – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, providing a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy. Thursday – 14 November 2019 Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – While the unemployment rate is expected to have increase at 5.3% in October, employment change is expected to have stabilized, at 15K compared to 14.7K last month. Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK Retail Sales are expected to have dipped with a -0.9% ex-auto figure on a m/m basis. Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 13:30) – Eurozone Q3 GDP growth held steady at 0.2% q/q – a better than expected report that highlighted once again that it is a mistake to reduce the Eurozone economy to the German manufacturing sector alone. The same outcome is expected on Thursday as well, at 0.2% q/q for Eurozone preliminary reading. Friday – 15 November 2019 Retail Sales (USD, GMT 14:30) – A 0.4% October gains for both the retail sales headline and the ex-auto figures have been estimated, following a -0.3% September headline dip with a -0.1% ex-auto figure. Gasoline prices should give a boost to retail activity given an estimated 4% increase for the CPI gasoline index. Unit vehicle sales should ease in October with a dip to an estimated 17.0 mln pace from 17.2 mln in September. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at a 2.6% rate in Q4, following the 2.9% Q3 clip. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • It is really an amazing too to use, if it really works as it is shown on picture. Many strategies are always based on these high and lows.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.