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ktartarotti

Does Anyone Truly Make a Living Solely Trading the E-minis???

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When they are arrogant gits from Nottingham or imaginary lands in their heads then it is little surprise.

 

This one stated in his posts that he wouldn't discuss trading methods (and then has the arrogance to give us the old "I tried to help my fellow man" as he takes his unrevealed toys and leaves the sandpit.

 

Even his blog is a combination of "I'm great," "all you retail traders are crap," and "buy my mentoring course.

 

Sending such people away is a service to humanity. Its a shame that some are so close to insane that they continue to build castles here at Traders Lab. It keeps it interesting I suppose and creates liquidity for the real traders.

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Kiwi, I noticed your always quick to come to conclusions like that but if you had checked his blog then you would see that you can actually watch him trade live for a week and then decide whether you still want to take him up on mentoring. He also doesn't sell mentoring course for a fixed fee, but takes a percentage of your profits. If he wasn't a profitable trader and if he didn't think you wouldn't make any money after that mentorship, why the hell would he take a percentage of your profits? If you made nothing, then he would also not made anything. I think that is the only mentorship that actually makes sense. If you think otherwise, well, then you're a retard.

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People are frustrated, humility seen with confidence in one character is a rare thing, with the result being threads filled with accusations, hate and spitting on each other, instead of sharing information we all can profit from.

 

8368838293 was right in a certain way, the acceptance-seeking attitude he wrote about makes sense, but, he should have acknowledged that there's a *lot* of fake in today's trading world in terms of snake oil salesmen promoting their indicators/mentorship/trading systems on forums to make profit from selling those rather than trading, not to mention whole websites selling the newest indicators and similar, trying to convince the losing trader that this is his salvation. And when the losing trading jumps for this salvation - there's no wonder he's losing. 8XXXX should have acknowledged that and take everything with a calm head, instead of writing novels about how frustrated he is... a honest, human attitude accepting others whatever their reactions are, because there's a reason for them, works miracles.

 

Anyway, I wanted to bring the 'To Sim Or Not To Sim' question into light again by sharing my 2 cents about it... I'm an aspiring trader, who has read a freaking lot about trading, recognized his former life where everything he touched turned to an exceptional success as a handicap in trading, has spent around 1000 hours studying the market, done many thousands of historical trades during backtesting, and written a lot, lot of pages describing his trading systems, and from my humble perspective, in the worst nightmare there can be, I cannot imagine risking a single cent of my hard-earned money with not being profitable on SIM first.

 

Yes, I acknowledge the emotions step in big way when people trade live. Yes, I know it's much different from SIM, perhaps even far from it. Yes I'm aware of the fact that I can go and trade 1 contract live and learn. But why the hell would I do that if I have the option to get on the SIM first?

 

To me, it's all about the personal choice of how an aspiring trader builds his learning curve. SIM is a phase for me, like studying the markets was a phase, trying out most of what's out there (indicators, price action, pivots, markets, timeframes, alternative charts, ....) was a phase, choosing what suits best was a phase, rough backtesting was a phase, finetuning the system was a phase, precise backtesting was a phase, final nuances to the memorized trading plan was and is a phase, a SIM is a phase that I choose to go through, with going to live while I'm consistently profitable a few weeks in a row on it will be a phase, then trading 1 contract in live before going to multicontracts is a phase, with many more phases to come...

 

SIM is a huge step towards trading reality from backtesting on historical data. SIM is a place where the base foundation for successfully executing your system can be laid. SIM is the place which allows you to catch and correct flaws that no trader *should* make but they happen - you suddenly realize the difference between LIMIT and STOP LIMIT orders etc. etc. etc. you get used to the fact that you cannot scroll the market price to the right, you just don't know what's going to happen, you see the price ticking up and down constantly within 1 bar, SIM basically prepares you for 99% of what the real trading environment will look like - please notice I'm talking about the looks only. Emotions is a different thing - although I am absolutely certain that SIM will show you the emotional side of you and your trading to a certain degree - perhaps far from live trading, but also far from doing backtests.

 

To me, going straight to live is like being sat in a Ferrarri after finishing the driving school tests without practice, instead of trying to master driving an 20-year old $300 car first. Of course, you can start with very slow driving in that Ferrarri and eventually master it - but I see absolutely NO SANE REASON not to do it, so-called, risk-free first (risk free with SIM, the car analogy fits 90% here, not 100% :).

 

I am absolutely convinced that SIM helps. SIM helps big. I'm rather willing to take two transitions, one level 4 and one level 6, than one transition of level 10 difficulty. By the next sentence I'm not massaging my ego or trying anyone to convince about anything - you always have to use your judgement - but I believe anyone who'd try to disprove me of the first three sentences of this paragraph is simply wrong. I won't change my opinion. Of course I'm always open for that, I just don't expect it in my lifetime in this one thing about SIM.

 

The stuff said here about SIM - traders work 18 months in it, then go live, screw up big in two days and return to SIM for another 6 months - it's like blaming the internet for porn on it. Internet is a great thing - it's people who put porn on it, it's not the fault of the internet. In case of trading, I see nothing else in the mentioned SIM behavior than a poorly designed trading plan, improper analysis, trying to work with a system with a negative expectancy without realizing it, or any other "logical or mental error" aspiring traders make which puts them into the 97% category of failed ones mentioned here earlier. It's the fault of traders, not the SIM.

 

You know, some traders here mentioned that they turned profitable with going to live directly, which I never mentioned is impossible, in fact, I believe it's possible as much as with going to SIM first - just covering the possible responses that people might jump into without fully understanding my perspective. Do what works for you, by any means - if going trading live with 1 lot without sim will do it for you, then by all means, do it - it's just that I personally perceive spending a few weeks on SIM first, a much better choice. I don't know how other aspiring traders, but I've sweat blood for my money and I'm willing to raise the percentage probability of my success to the maximum possible before risking my first cent in live trading. That can not be achieved without SIM trading first.

 

I had to share my opinion so newbie traders don't get discouraged to use SIM - it's a great thing if you know what to use it for.

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I love how every time you get a real trader on this forum who's got information to share that is not completely useless, people just chase him away. No wonder, there is so little useful information to find on forums.

 

I'm inclined to agree AK though completely understand where Kiwi is coming from too. I guess no one particularly enjoys being talked down to particularly if they are a peer. You also often see vendors (or someone that even smells like a vendor) driven off. Just because someone is a vendor does not necessarily mean they have nothing worthwhile to say.

 

I guess it's up to each participant to determine an acceptable signal to noise ratio and whether the quality of the signal warrants putting up with noise.

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In this case the drivee has actually stated that he will offer nothing worthwhile. All the scum here are below his level.

 

This board has attracted more than its share of them recently - although this one was one of the most amusing. His actual offer was:

"I am happy to give you a free week to watch my order books throughout the week to see my pnl."

Stinks a little of a vendor drumming up business and that is against the board's rules I think.

 

What's funniest is the people who jump to the defense of these types - its as if they believe that the grail is only one barnum away (note: I don't actually perceive that you're in the "jumping to the scumbag's defense group" Blowfish)

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Those of you who are successful day trading the ES, how many points do you on average target per every trade and how frequently do you trade?

 

While it is tempting to aim for one point winners and increase frequency, my preliminary studies show that commissions and slippage really affects the bottom line when taking small profits.

 

Increasing the profit target to 2 points or even 3 points per trade, drastically reduces the impact of commissions and slippage.

 

So, I guess it boils down to trading style: 1) high frequency taking small profits or 2) lower frequency taking bigger profits.

 

The ideal would perhaps be to scalp for 1 points when the opportunity is there and then aim for larger winners when an opportunity is perceived.

 

Ideas? Opinions? Experiences?

 

Thanks in advance,

 

HighStakes

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Since you keep bringing this slippage issue up, what has your analysis shown for realistic slippage?

 

Since I have not traded this contract live myself yet, I do not have any historical data to base it on, but in my simulations I have accounted for a 1 tick slippage on 30% of my trades.

 

That would be $375 after 100 trades. Adding commissions ($450), it would drastically impact the bottomline if one aims for 1 points winners or less.

 

I don`t know if this is realistic or not, but I still think my line of thinking is correct in that slippage and commissions needs to be taken into account if one goes for small winners.

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How much time would one need to get himself 'fit' to trade mini futures?

 

Anywhere from 1 month to 10 years to never being 'fit' to trade mini futures.

 

As far as time spent, it's about quality, not quantity -- and often times as an aspiring trader, especially with no guidance, it is VERY hard to distinguish what is quality and what's not.

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How much time would one need to get himself 'fit' to trade mini futures?

 

There's no way to possibly give you a reply that would accurately provide you an answer.

 

Some 'get it' after a few months/years and some never get it. Some treat it like a hobby and others treat it like a business. Some are here purely to gamble and others are here to take calculated risks...

 

There are so many variables that your learning curve could literally start at a couple months to never. Most probably end up somewhere in the middle that actually make it and the rest eventually die out.

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Interesting Article and Stats on Daytraders

 

Wall Street Warzone Day-Traders Lose Big, Still Live in Denial: 77% of American Traders are “Losers” While 82% of Day-Traders in Taiwan-China Are Bigger “Losers” Print

 

I wonder, what's percentage of actively trading/contributing daytrading SID's there are in eminis ?

 

Enjoy

Minoo

Edited by minoo

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Exactly what i was talking about in one of my previous post, the milk of human kindness soon turns sour in places like this. The witch hunts begins and why so, and for what need? The only outcome being the OP topic getting completely de-railed.

 

So i make a post, you see something that you don't like, and so what? All of sudden it turns into a look at me i'm right, i'm sherlock holmes, please everyone give me brownie points for me uncovering the devil that lurks amongst us....

 

Like I say, this is one of the aspects that I find interesting about places like this, and as mentioned earlier, you can see all types of human behaviour here. Decades ago two sociologists Berger and Luckmann introduced the concept that successful socialization occurs when an individual internalizes a given groups beliefs and values to such an extreme extend that it becomes 'reality for them'. Basically anything that goes against the norm for the group and you get an automatic impulse that it is wrong, regardless, and that to realize the true fact you have to fight to realize it. Politics is a fine example of this.

 

In experiments that have been carried out by leading ivy leauge universities in the states, they hooked people up to an FMRI machine and the people listened to something that was true, but challenged their personal belief. The outcome was that when such a thing happens, it actives a part of your brain that is responsible for detecting errors and you instantly get an automatic impulse from your brain that basically prints out 'error!'. Now this backs up research done by princeston universtiy that shows that people see their own beliefs as less baised than others. In other words, you're just automatically thinking you're right and will try to disprove anything that goes against your personal belief as you see it as a threat to you in some way. Which goes back to the Berger and Luckmann theory that we all do live, in some sense, in alternative forms of reality. Like we all know that 1+1 = 2 and that 2+2 = 4, but if something goes against your 'alternative reality' then you will just automatically reject it or do anything you can to disprove it. A good example here would be religion and science... how was the world made?

 

Now this leads onto the next part which is misperceptions in intergroup conflict... :) The unviersity of Florida carried out studies which examined misperceptions of disagreements in partisan social conflicts. The research basically concluded that those who disagree with the adversaries tend to exaggerate the differences of opinion. They also concluded that the people disagreeing with the adversaries were also inaccurate in perceviing the opinions within the debate. This is in a nutshell what you have done in this post.

 

Now as mentioned before, what is happening in the post is fine example of what i've explained above. You've picked up on something irrelevent that you don't personally agree with, yet it has sent an impulse in your brain to bring it up as issue because it goes against the norm of the group that you feel that you belong too. The pack animal effect kicks in as you scramble to seek approval from your peers within the group which is this community, which in turn, makes you feel like you have a more crediable role within the communtity. For example, when checking up on this thread, you'll feel a sense of approval from the community if you have a couple of 'thank you for this post' attached to the post that you wrote. Once you have finished making a couple of pointless pokes at me, you and the others will just go back to fighting amongst yourselves as the power struggle contintues for the dominant role of the group that is this communtity. All I am to you is an unknown threat as you fight for your place in the pecking order

 

It's really interesting to watch. I'm sure all of you will agree with me here, even if you don't chose to voice your opinions, that 'trading communities' like this with their monderators, thanked post counts, number post contributed are basically an online hierarchical arrangement of individuals into divisions of percieved trading credibility, which is just social stratification. As mentioned above, this just causes a power struggle as people fight for their place in the pecking order because people want to be 'the one'...that trader in the community that people acknowlege as being successful and who's opinions are worthy. So as the majority of people fight it out for their place, and just look around this forum, you can find plenty of posts of people fighting amongst each other, trying to disprove other people, and the various witch hunts that have run rampent within threads.... it's clear to see that the original conception and ideology of the group which was to help share information and education about trading has just taking a complete back seat as people fight for their place in the social order.

 

Now this comes onto why I said that 99.9% of people here are not going to make anything of trading, and are not my client target base for mentorship, a subject that is quite irrelvent, but you see it as an opportunity to score some brownie points for reasons listed above. Now if there's something that I say that you don't like, then fair enough, we all have our right to disagree, and the old mantra of if you haven't got anything good to say, then don't say anything at all should be applied. If you don't like that I offer mentorship, then no one is forcing you to look into it. If you don't like my fire, then don't come round. It's pretty simple really. If people are interested in mentorship from myself then they're free to spend a week watching live trading by myself and seeing how much I make or lose for real before parting with any payment. That's fair enough isn't it?

 

Also I'd like to point out, that because of your pointless urge to bring the mentorship issue up to score brownie points, you've just ended up creating more awareness that I offer mentorship. Like I say, if you don't like my fire then don't come round, no one is forcing you, and people are free to form their own opinions if they wish to investigate further after spending a week with me.

 

The main reason why professional traders don't come onto websites like this is because of the witch hunt, and the bickering by people who clearly have no idea about the underlying subject. People forget here that the objective here is trading and helping others achieve their goals. A professional may share some knowledge with the group, but it disrupts the social order or status quo of a place like this, so it ends up just being thrown back in their face. So a lot of us just think, what's the point? As a result, you end up with a community that is filled with the blind leading the blind, who have lost track of the orginal mantra of the community. Anyone who comes along and tries to help is automatically made out to be a crook. No one is here to rob you of your money, you're quite capable of robbing yourself by being delusional that you're going to be a successful trader in a highly competetive professional industy, without any proper training. Why don't you go start an oil company and a space agency while you're at it?

 

Anyway i've ranted on long enough here. I'll end on one last note... When you actually listen you may feel that it is confusing in one or more ways, but that's just because you're not used to listening. If you truly listen, you might find that the person talking is indeed very interesting.

 

Hey 86834, your posts here are so relevant and giving of yourself, We appreciate your personal insight, revelations and time using this forum.

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Boy you put a lot original thought in this reply. Thank it was the first time i'v ever heard this. Glad I read it. I changes everything. I guess my MD father would have to agree that trading is a lot like medical school and residency. Thanks ditto-head!!!

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This is an interesting topic to me so I thought I'd throw my thoughts into the fray. I host a live trade room and have been doing so now for over two years. I'm proud to say that I have a solid winning record across all the markets I have called, mostly eminis and currency futures. That's not my point but I wanted to give a little credibility to my following comments.

 

I also trade my own account but I find it difficult to manage my trades accurately, 100% of the time while maintaining a level of reliability and quality to the trades I am calling live for my membership. I have a hierchial system of priority that dictates my actions. I always put my tradecalls first and that has hurt my own trading about 10 to 15% of the time, which makes a huge difference to my overall personal trade results.

 

All of you make correct assumptions I believe, as to why traders fail. Here is my opinion. I believe that trading is basically a non-human activity yet, we as humans, make very human trade decisions, which tend to be wrong more than they are right. Often we'll put our personal needs ahead of the needs of our trading. Or, we don't even know 'why' we are trading in the first place. It should be 'to make money' but you'd be surprised to learn that most people haven't given that the thought necessary to fully understand that concept and its ramifications.

 

The best trades, I have found, tend to be counter-intuitive and therefore difficult to pull the trigger on. I rely on my trade system (which is objectively non-human) and try to always remind myself that I am trading the 'edge' that my system gives me over time. My winning percentage is high enough to make a living so long as I keep my risk very small (no more than 2% of my overall trade capital) and, I take the trades according to my tradeplan. The wins and losses will come at a random distribution. We can not control that. We can control our risk and, that we execute our trades correctly, according to a well researched plan. Then I can be non-human about my trading realizing that if I trade my plan correctly, I'll put the odds in my favor on every trade and that edge (like the casino's edge only better) is where I will make my money as a trader. Make sense?

 

Think of your trading like a forest. Each tree is a trade. Most traders get lost amongst the trees and lose sight of their forest. Trees fall and they begin to make bad trade decisions. This is very human. The forest is your equity curve though. The line that successful traders cross is when they are at peace with sacrificing about 1/3 of the trees in their forest if it means growing their forest 2/3rds larger as a result. Think about it. A beautiful and realistic equity curve gives you that nice stair stepping line, 45 degrees up and to the right. Right? Two steps forward, one step back. Two steps forward, one step back. 1/3 of the trees fall, allowing for 2/3rds to grow back.

 

A trader needs to take a higher perch and maintain a bird's eye view on their entire forest and not worry about the trees that fall so long as the winning edge remains intact. My results and equity curves prove this idea over and over again, over many thousands of trades, called live over the past two + years. I have attached to this post, recent equity curves to the two currency futures markets I have been recently calling over the past couple months to prove my point.

 

Please notice that on my Euro trades, had I been a normal human being trying to trade this market, chances are I would have quit as my trades actually dipped below zero and produced a negative result to begin with. My backtesting and longer term view though, kept me taking my trades as they set up each day and you can see how the forest then grew like crazy. Same thing with my British Pound trades. In fact, this curve reveals the type of dynamic that kills traders success. Notice around mid March to the first week in May how the results were flat. Yet by taking the trades, we were able to hang out just below our equity highs. Then, the winners began to come again and a breakout to new equity highs occurred. In fact, we hit new highs again today. Many traders quit during that time and went off to chase the "already happened" performance of some other untested market and strategy, but that's another reason traders fail and I'll stop here now, hopefully making points that the readers of this forum will find useful.

5aa7100d33e14_BPCurve.gif.7163c10aa0a7737143b8abe5fe61e409.gif

5aa7100d3857f_ECCurve.gif.4840c96a5182e68c336cb336838f9815.gif

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tj a quick question you write..."I also trade my own account but I find it difficult to manage my trades accurately, 100% of the time while maintaining a level of reliability and quality to the trades I am calling live for my membership. I have a hierchial system of priority that dictates my actions. I always put my tradecalls first and that has hurt my own trading about 10 to 15% of the time, which makes a huge difference to my overall personal trade results."

 

I dont know how these trade rooms really work, but I would like to know how this occurs. I would have thought if you are making calls live they are off your actual trades. If your calls are correct, why not just trade those? thanks.

(I understand that as an individual trading making calls and then not sticking to their plan/calls makes sense, but I would have thought a trade room was different)

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This is an interesting topic to me so I thought I'd throw my thoughts into the fray. I host a live trade room and have been doing so now for over two years. I'm proud to say that I have a solid winning record across all the markets I have called, mostly eminis and currency futures. That's not my point but I wanted to give a little credibility to my following comments.

 

I also trade my own account but I find it difficult to manage my trades accurately, 100% of the time while maintaining a level of reliability and quality to the trades I am calling live for my membership. I have a hierchial system of priority that dictates my actions. I always put my tradecalls first and that has hurt my own trading about 10 to 15% of the time, which makes a huge difference to my overall personal trade results.

 

All of you make correct assumptions I believe, as to why traders fail. Here is my opinion. I believe that trading is basically a non-human activity yet, we as humans, make very human trade decisions, which tend to be wrong more than they are right. Often we'll put our personal needs ahead of the needs of our trading. Or, we don't even know 'why' we are trading in the first place. It should be 'to make money' but you'd be surprised to learn that most people haven't given that the thought necessary to fully understand that concept and its ramifications.

 

The best trades, I have found, tend to be counter-intuitive and therefore difficult to pull the trigger on. I rely on my trade system (which is objectively non-human) and try to always remind myself that I am trading the 'edge' that my system gives me over time. My winning percentage is high enough to make a living so long as I keep my risk very small (no more than 2% of my overall trade capital) and, I take the trades according to my tradeplan. The wins and losses will come at a random distribution. We can not control that. We can control our risk and, that we execute our trades correctly, according to a well researched plan. Then I can be non-human about my trading realizing that if I trade my plan correctly, I'll put the odds in my favor on every trade and that edge (like the casino's edge only better) is where I will make my money as a trader. Make sense?

 

Think of your trading like a forest. Each tree is a trade. Most traders get lost amongst the trees and lose sight of their forest. Trees fall and they begin to make bad trade decisions. This is very human. The forest is your equity curve though. The line that successful traders cross is when they are at peace with sacrificing about 1/3 of the trees in their forest if it means growing their forest 2/3rds larger as a result. Think about it. A beautiful and realistic equity curve gives you that nice stair stepping line, 45 degrees up and to the right. Right? Two steps forward, one step back. Two steps forward, one step back. 1/3 of the trees fall, allowing for 2/3rds to grow back.

 

A trader needs to take a higher perch and maintain a bird's eye view on their entire forest and not worry about the trees that fall so long as the winning edge remains intact. My results and equity curves prove this idea over and over again, over many thousands of trades, called live over the past two + years. I have attached to this post, recent equity curves to the two currency futures markets I have been recently calling over the past couple months to prove my point.

 

Please notice that on my Euro trades, had I been a normal human being trying to trade this market, chances are I would have quit as my trades actually dipped below zero and produced a negative result to begin with. My backtesting and longer term view though, kept me taking my trades as they set up each day and you can see how the forest then grew like crazy. Same thing with my British Pound trades. In fact, this curve reveals the type of dynamic that kills traders success. Notice around mid March to the first week in May how the results were flat. Yet by taking the trades, we were able to hang out just below our equity highs. Then, the winners began to come again and a breakout to new equity highs occurred. In fact, we hit new highs again today. Many traders quit during that time and went off to chase the "already happened" performance of some other untested market and strategy, but that's another reason traders fail and I'll stop here now, hopefully making points that the readers of this forum will find useful.

 

Tj,

 

As an FYI, your shameless plugs, display of equity curves, and etc. you wish to share are securities law violations without the proper disclosure and adherence to protocol.

 

Also, you may want to edit your post and clean up some of the really obvious BS and accidental contradictions. Review the posts of other vendors who are more experienced at plugging themselves. I think you might pick up a tip or two learning some of subtleties of their approaches.

 

For example, a lot of people here are going to struggle with the idea that you are so dedicated to making your trade calls and nursing new traders along the way, that you neglect your own account. Others may call into question why you do anything but trade when you can produce the unaudited equity curves like the ones you have attached. I can go on and on, but my coffee is finished.

 

In any event, I hope you find some of the information in this post useful to your business.

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This is an interesting topic to me so I thought I'd throw my thoughts into the fray. I host a live trade room and have been doing so now for over two years. I'm proud to say that I have a solid winning record across all the markets I have called,....

 

Equity chart tells only part of the story,

The chart I am interested in is the Intraday Draw Down chart.

 

To give you an example why I am interested in the draw down,

attached are the calls made by a "profitable" trader; he often invite people to join him in the room.

 

This is how he makes a 1 pt profit,

you'll be the judge if intraday draw down is important.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=21256&stc=1&d=1275481340

2010-05-20-03.thumb.jpg.1c4a0e7da85d2341384983b68e8d27bc.jpg

Edited by Tams

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Tj,

 

As an FYI, your shameless plugs, display of equity curves, and etc. you wish to share are securities law violations without the proper disclosure and adherence to protocol.

 

Really. You could make this argument about ANY such tout posting on TL, IMHO, whether licensed or not.

 

#FAIL

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Really. You could make this argument about ANY such tout posting on TL, IMHO, whether licensed or not.

 

#FAIL

 

 

It doesn't apply to the general population of traders. A trader who is not trying to solicit funds or fees, can lie all he wants, and doesn't need to disclose anything.

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This is how he makes a 1 pt profit,

you'll be the judge if intraday draw down is important.

 

Isn't adding to a losing position one of the major issues why a traders fail in the long run? ..

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It could be one of the reasons for some. The main reason traders fail is that they set unrealistic goals for the capital they have. Basically, undercapitalized.

 

While I agree with that - this definitely is a reason for trader's gravestones, I personally don't think this is the main one - undercapitalization and making expectations realistic is rather 'easy to spot' before you even begin trading, so you can prepare.

 

I believe the inability to perceive losses as part of trading is the #1 (something you can't prepare for) - this single reason causes hope, changing the system (re-working it and starting anew while the previous one was profitable), taking trades out of plan, etc. :2c:

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While I agree with that - this definitely is a reason for trader's gravestones, I personally don't think this is the main one - undercapitalization and making expectations realistic is rather 'easy to spot' before you even begin trading, so you can prepare.

 

I believe the inability to perceive losses as part of trading is the #1 (something you can't prepare for) - this single reason causes hope, changing the system (re-working it and starting anew while the previous one was profitable), taking trades out of plan, etc. :2c:

 

Sure. Bad trading takes the best and worst capitalized traders out of trading; however, not having enough capital will keep the best traders from trading since they need to apply their time to other endeavors to meet expenses.

 

Good traders know what to expect from a market and know they can't earn an income if they do not have enough capital.

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    • Date: 16th April 2024. Market News – Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows. Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected retail sales eliciting a broad sell off in the markets. Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a 50-50 chance. Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week’s declines amid the rise in yields. Investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation. There’s growing anxiety over earnings even after a big beat from Goldman Sachs. UK labor market data was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated – The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE. China grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon. Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook. Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Financial Markets Performance:   The US Dollar rallied to 106.19 after testing 106.25, gaining against JPY and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level. Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed. USOIL is flat at $85 per barrel. Market Trends:   Breaks of key technical levels exacerbated the sell off. Tech was the big loser with the NASDAQ plunging -1.79% to 15,885 while the S&P500 dropped -1.20% to 5061, with the Dow sliding -0.65% to 37,735. The S&P had the biggest 2-day sell off since March 2023. Nikkei and ASX lost -1.9% and -1.8% respectively, and the Hang Seng is down -2.1%. European bourses are down more than -1% and US futures are also in the red. CTA selling tsunami: “Just a few points lower CTAs will for the first time this year start selling in size, to add insult to injury, we are breaking major trend-lines in equities and the gamma stabilizer is totally gone.” Short term CTA threshold levels are kicking in big time according to GS. Medium term is 4873 (most important) while the long term level is at 4605. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 15th April 2024. Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict. However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict. New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70. The Yen dip against USD to 153.85. USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce. Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180. Market Trends:   Asian stock markets traded mixed, but European and US futures are slightly higher after a tough session on Friday and yields have picked up. Mainland China bourses outperformed overnight, after Beijing offered renewed regulatory support. The PBOC meanwhile left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged, while once again draining funds from the system. Nikkei slipped 1% to 39,114.19. On Friday, NASDAQ slumped -1.62% to 16,175, unwinding most of Thursday’s 1.68% jump to a new all-time high at 16,442. The S&P500 fell -1.46% and the Dow dropped 1.24%. Declines were broadbased with all 11 sectors of the S&P finishing in the red. JPMorgan Chase sank 6.5% despite reporting stronger profit in Q1. The nation’s largest bank gave a forecast for a key source of income this year that fell below Wall Street’s estimate, calling for only modest growth. Apple shipments drop by 10% in Q1. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • The morning of my last post I happened to glance over to the side and saw “...angst over the FOMC’s rate trajectory triggered a flight to safety, hence boosting the haven demand. “   http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/21621-hfmarkets-hfmcom-market-analysis-services/page/17/?tab=comments#comment-228522   I reacted, but didn’t take time to  respond then... will now --- HFBlogNews, I don’t know if you are simply aggregating the chosen narratives for the day or if it’s your own reporting... either way - “flight to safety”????  haven ?????  Re: “safety  - ”Those ‘solid rocks’ are getting so fragile a hit from a dandelion blowball might shatter them... like now nobody wants to buy longer term new issues at these rates...yet the financial media still follows the scripts... The imagery they pound day in and day out makes it look like the Fed knows what they’re doing to help ‘us’... They do know what they’re doing - but it certainly is not to help ‘us’... and it is not to ‘control’ inflation... And at some point in the not too distant future, the interest due will eat a huge portion of the ‘revenue’ Re: “haven” The defaults are coming ...  The US will not be the first to default... but it will certainly not be the very last to default !! ...Enough casual anti-white racism for the day  ... just sayin’
    • Date: 12th April 2024. Producer Inflation On The Rise, But Will Earnings Hold Demand Steady?     Producer inflation rose slightly less than previous expectations, but the annual figure continues to rise. The annual PPI rose to 2.1% and the Core PPI rose to 2.4%. The NASDAQ and SNP500 end the day higher, but the Dow Jones continues to struggle. This morning earnings kick off with the banking sector including JP Morgan, BlackRock and Wells Fargo. All 3 stocks trade higher during pre-trading hours. The Euro trades lower against all currencies despite the ECB’s attempt to establish a hawkish tone. USA100 – The NASDAQ Climbs Higher, But Is the Growth Sustainable? The NASDAQ was the only index which did not witness a significant decline at the opening of the US session. In addition to this, the USA100 is the only index which is witnessing indications of a bullish market. The price has crossed onto a higher high breaking the resistance level at $18,269. The index is also trading above the 75-Bar EMA and at the 65.00 level on the RSI which signals buyers are controlling the market. However, a similar large bullish impulse wave was also formed on the 3rd and 5th of the month and was followed by a correction. Therefore, investors need to be cautious of a bearish breakout which may signal a correction back to the 75-bar EMA (18,165). The medium-term growth and its sustainability will depend on the upcoming earnings data.   Bond yields declined during this morning’s Asian session by 18 points, which is positive for the stock market. However, even with the decline, bond yields remain significantly higher than Monday’s opening yield. This week the 10-year bond yield rose from 4.424 to 4.558, which is a concern. If bond yields again start to rise, the stock market potentially can again become pressured. 25% of the NASDAQ ended the day lower and 75% higher. This gives a clear indication of the sentiment towards the technology sector and reassures traders about the price movement. Another positive was all of the top 12 influential stocks rose in value. Apple, NVIDIA and Broadcom saw the strongest gains, all rising more than 4%. Producer inflation read slightly lower than expectations, however, the index continues to rise. The Producer Price Index rose from 1.6% to 2.1% and the Core PPI from 2.1% to 2.4%. Therefore, it is not indicating inflation will become easier to tackle in the upcoming months. For this reason, investors should note that inflation and the monetary policy is still a risk and can trigger strong bearish impulse waves. EURUSD – The Euro Declines Against Major Currencies The European Central Bank is attempting to concentrate on the positive factors and give no indications of when the committee may opt to cut rates. For example, President Lagarde advises “sales figures” remain stable, but the issue remains they are stably low. Officials said the decline in prices generally confirms medium-term forecasts and is ensured by a decrease in the cost of food and goods. Most experts continue to believe that the first reduction in interest rates will happen in June, and there may be three or four in total during the year. Due to this, the Euro is declining against all currencies including the Pound, Yen and Swiss Franc. The US Dollar Index on the other hand trades 0.39% higher and is almost trading at a 23-week high. Due to this momentum, the price of the exchange continues to indicate a decline in favor of the US Dollar.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • $MSFT Microsoft stock top of range breakout above 433.1, https://stockconsultant.com/?MSFT
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