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Dinerotrader

Oil Trading

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Gold and Oil

 

Just curious if anyone uses gold and oil as indicators for the other since they are often very correlated markets.

 

Here is the chart for both gold and oil from part of today. I noted the time 7:25 on both charts which is arizona time, add 3 for ET. Oil was doing a lot of consolidating moves but I was watching gold and it gave me a slight leaning to the long side. I ended up taking a long just before the move and got 62 ticks. Just curious if anyone else uses other markets as an indicator for oil or whatever they trade and if anyone sees any legitimacy to employing such a method.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=20772&stc=1&d=1272384648

attachment.php?attachmentid=20773&stc=1&d=1272384648

5aa70ffdb9ab9_4-27-201003.thumb.png.eec8a8b8fc7de45c50224adb25d1dd65.png

5aa70ffdc155a_4-27-201002.thumb.png.8f87d59c239200fe4f3307dbcbd3e80d.png

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Just curious if anyone else uses other markets as an indicator for oil or whatever they trade and if anyone sees any legitimacy to employing such a method.

]

 

I'll post this one since you mentioned whatever someone else may trade, here is an example of inverse correlation between the Treasuries (ZF) and the Equities (NQ).today. BTW, Your Oil - Gold is a good one.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=20793&stc=1&d=1272421543

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=20794&stc=1&d=1272421543

chart1.jpg.5570b4db3ee6fe681574bd7513e5346b.jpg

chart2.jpg.0e8ee8b718ea3e2f7b128ff4f854eebd.jpg

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Been really busy with oil lately and haven't gotten around to posting much. I wonder when we'll finally stop this dramatic slide downward. The most frustrating part lately has been that oil has made a lot of big moves outside of RTH.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=21157&stc=1&d=1274824268

5aa7100ace5a2_5-25-201017.thumb.png.80b9f11706795c56786ae1d1d587150e.png

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Some serious volatility on oil today. I don't currently trade to catch these huge moves so this was not good for me in general.

 

NOTE: Inventory is NOT on Wednesday this week. It comes out on Thursday this week at 11:00 ET.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=21247&stc=1&d=1275431487

5aa7100da9f1f_6-1-201009.thumb.png.ca9e437a33cb64d3ae15144ddc7288c0.png

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Just a quick look at crude. Given the lower highs, I would like to play a break down below 71.64, but I will play a break up above 72.95 too, albeit much less aggressively.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=21255&stc=1&d=1275473648

CL.png.e40d2b2d38bfa5de9195d1423cd6fa4f.png

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Just a quick look at crude. Given the lower highs, I would like to play a break down below 71.64, but I will play a break up above 72.95 too, albeit much less aggressively.

 

Got owned try to play the long. Level got chopped up. I would still like to play a breakdown below 71.64 though.

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Just thought I would share.

Ouch. bought back, shorted again, bought back. Running one short......

then there is slippage on the last lot..... 14 ticks..... wow there must have been some sort of inventory number :)

(makes the idea of backtesting v reality interesting, and sometimes I wonder why I trade through numbers....net net its probably break even)

Never chased the long..... sometimes I hate this job.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=21291&stc=1&d=1275578093

5aa7100ec8d51_oilchop.jpg.17b7ad88f521a2e2166bdc9c9099ef24.jpg

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Thought I might share this setup I am currently using in Oil.

Its nothing knew, it takes a fair bit of patience and waiting, but it offers a reasonable way of entering (or so it seems to for me :))

Basically using a 5 tick range chart (anything else would probably work also if it captures enough to complete a swing)

 

1) wait for what you expect is a buy zone

2) wait for an abc down

3) entry on the next abc up (in this case I pre-empted it and snuck in early)

 

The red lines are the swing high points. I ideally would like to see these get taken out and then to me the down move is complete to let the swing up ride. Exit is whatever trailing stop you care to use.

I hope it is self explanatory.

The worst thing about this setup is the waiting and determining a buy zone (based on previous days bases), also note that there was an initial entry that stopped me out as well.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=21357&stc=1&d=1275993466

BaseBuyZone.jpg.45b77433f9d8b2c57c78cc1e38c15cea.jpg

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72.40 certainly is a nice flipped area. IMHO there was a little too much acceptance above 72.40 itself. There was a test to 72.59 and one to 72.50. I was hoping we would get another perfect rejection at 72.40 today, then I could try to a BO above it tomorrow or tonight. But alas the level has been all violated up by after hours trading. Just my two cents.

 

I like a breakout below 70.75 personally. I had qualms about it because there was that probe down to 70.63. But the other 3 tests of the level have all caused major reactions in price and were all within 1 or 2 ticks from each other. That along with the fact that 70.75 was a pretty major area during the end of last month. And of course the larger trend being down (at least how I see it) makes me much more aggressive in pursuing it.

 

I actually decided to be aggressive and short a break below the level this morning. Price came within 3 ticks of my sell stop before again finding support and rallying all the way back up. Specific S/R levels FTW! With an ill defined S/R zone that wouldn't have been possible...or at least not very likely.

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So, Siuya,

You don't use anyting other than price action and swings high and low? I love range bars on CL I use range of 6, but I have some other indicators. I will try and post a better picture from my trading tomorrow. Let's see if we can have our own race here.

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Thanks for this thread!

I trade CL every day. Yesterday was tight and I had two very small winners. Then it finally broke above 76 with some action. This was my final trade. My trade plan is two wins and positive, then I am done. Today, on inventory day I wait till after the news then trade. I might take one before 9am if we get some good price action off the 8:30 news. Will let you know later.

http://im1.shutterfly.com/media/47a0d837b3127ccefa355d1cfc6900000030O08EbtmjVq3Zg9vPhY/cC/f%3D0/ps%3D50/r%3D0/rx%3D550/ry%3D400/

 

Sorry about the picture. I will read up on how to post one better.

Edited by WorldTrader
picture not so good

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What is your experience on slippage on stop loss orders for real $ oiltrades?

 

Im currently getting to know oil a little bid better on a simulator and Im experiencing

an average slippage of about 1,3 cent.

 

On the simulator, I havent experienced a big olispike against me yet.

So for the time beeing I have set my long term expectation for slippage on stoporders to 1,5cents.

 

I this in your view a reasonable estimate for real $ trades?

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What is your experience on slippage on stop loss orders for real $ oiltrades?

 

Im currently getting to know oil a little bid better on a simulator and Im experiencing

an average slippage of about 1,3 cent.

 

On the simulator, I havent experienced a big olispike against me yet.

So for the time beeing I have set my long term expectation for slippage on stoporders to 1,5cents.

 

I this in your view a reasonable estimate for real $ trades?

 

change your stops to stop limit orders instead of stop market orders and you shouldn't have any slippage.

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