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The Pip Thief

Position Sizing Software

By The Pip Thief, in Risk & Money Management

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The Pip Thief    10

The Pip Thief
Posted

Hello,

 

I use PositionSizer.com add-on for order entry and I love it but I need a program for analysis of position sizing. Like one that will help me find out the best bet size. I have done a little research and found Sator but no others.

 

Has anyone used Stator? If so what do you think?

 

Has anyone head of any other Position Sizing analysis software?

 

Thanks,

 

The Pip Thief

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The Pip Thief    10

The Pip Thief
Posted

Here is some money management! Risked 99 Pounds this morning and got back around 2300 in less than 3 hours. I showed this with a sim account because I do not know how to erase account with my screen capture.

 

I did not scale in on this trade because I got nervous, but there was a great opportunity to scale in on the second ABC as you will see in the graphic. I was able to take a position for $250,000 with only risking 99 GBP and an 8 point stop. PositionSizer did all the conversion for me - I am not going to go into that here because it is done automatically. I personally only risk 1% because I get too nervous with 2% and as you can see you can still make great money with 1%.

 

The Pip Thief

5aa70f7b0b394_1.png.5d707d60f9c9d44b0bdc2cc24e6f03ea.png

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The Pip Thief    10

The Pip Thief
Posted

Two more ABC patterns this morning! I missed them both:crap:. But I did get in on the second trade that you will see. I am using a target on this one because it is counter trend and I will be moving my stop up when the ATR moves above break even.

 

I am half way there wish me luck!

 

The Pip Thief

5aa70f7c4d202_ABCONDECEMBER82009.png.fab921ba320b842cc69acf12a948f622.png

5aa70f7c52540_TradeONDECEMBER82009.png.3a77a8f0eb0b8ddaed02f26c18da2df5.png

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The Pip Thief    10

The Pip Thief
Posted

Thanks for your response. I want to do what if analysis and simulations of R-multiples to overcome my fear of using more that one percent risk. I want to see the best R-multiple based on my trades. Should I be using more than one percent or more statistically based on my win rate of 43% with 9% break even trades.

 

I am happy using 1% risk but I think I could push it a little more. I think those that use 2% are crazy! But are they? Can I prove based on my system that I can up my risk? If I do, what will the simulation tell me about max draw downs. Bye the way. I broke even on the trade I took. Check out the pick.

 

This is what I am looking for in a Analysis/Simulation program and I do not want to give an arm and a tooth for it if you know what I mean. :2c:

 

The Pip Thief.

 

Thanks

5aa70f7c71349_breakeven.png.f9a7f689787c42e0f95f3e9519f563c9.png

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Trader333    10

Trader333
Posted

You could try a MonteCarlo simulation as this will give an idea of your risk of ruin based on percent risk, reward factor and strike rate. I wrote and article on this which has a downloadable Excel spreadsheet that may help and I will pm you the link.

 

 

 

Paul

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The Pip Thief    10

The Pip Thief
Posted

Here is another example of proper position sizing with a different system. This is an inside low range bar system. If ATR is for red for short. That means we look for short trades. Now if a bar with a low range appears which are color pink we look to see if it is inside the previous bar. If yes and the low is broken then we enter short and follow the ATR stop. If the bars high is broken then the signal is canceled.

 

Check out the photo to understand more. One thing to remember is that the smaller your bar, the smaller your stop, which in turn gives you much more profit on a smaller move.

 

I have to state the disadvantage. You will get stopped out more but I find it well worth it when you get in for 9 pips and the market falls 150 pips. With a win rate in the 40 % range you can still make money.

 

If you were to have gotten in on this trade you would be out with a 7% profit in less than an hour.

 

Look at the pink inside bar just before the entry bar. Not taken because the ATR was blue and the inside bar broke to the short side.

 

Again it is the money management side of the business that makes all the difference. I was able show how to size right up to your intended % risk. This is important to keep all losses the same since it is the only thing we can quantify in trading.

 

Put another way. You just paid for your next 7 losses.

 

The second photo is a 2 minute chart. Just ask yourself how you would have trade this set-up and if your position sizing would have resulted in the same 13R win in 2 hours. 99 pound risked and 1300 reward. This is trading. Now you just paid for 13 next losses. Maybe you can start to risk 2% for the next couple of trades.

 

The Pip Thief

5aa70f7d06685_insidebar2.png.9b2c104e75670e1f2782e8e4ea82aa66.png

5aa70f7d0d771_insidebar3.png.9bdbbd2b6ce10ea5d82f9fc90dce341a.png

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The Pip Thief    10

The Pip Thief
Posted

More inside bar trades with low range. The first is a loss for 1R and second makes it all back and then some. Check out the pics. If you are using proper position sizing with this kind of set up then the risk reward can be nice and since you are following with a trailing stop your risk is free quite nicely in timely manner. In the second pic your risk was cleared in 2 minutes.

 

It is all about risk management. You need to protect what is yours in order to be alive for the big ones. These are what really grow your account. The plus 20R trades. They are rare but do happen. 6-10R can happen quite often if you can get in with a 10 pip stop. Then the market only needs to move 60 points and you are up 6R. In this case you only need to win 18 out of 100 to break even. 28 out 100 and you are up 60%.

 

I showed at the bottom the pip value in GBP. Having your risk in your base currency is vital to success. There is a 60% difference in how much you can buy between the pound and dollar. That is a big error. Instead of risking 1% you are actually risk 1.6% or .4% depending on the conversion.

 

The Pip Thief

5aa70f7e40b99_tradestoppedout.png.69d111fce216c0d7a0796b06e80906b7.png

5aa70f7e487f5_12-10-2009insidebar.png.b6db5e6674211f7a633c46a2b71e53e1.png

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The Pip Thief    10

The Pip Thief
Posted

Do not chase trades. This is so much easier when you use PositionSizer. I think most people do not understand Position Sizing. They think it is for risk management. Yes it is for risk management, but mainly it is to allow you to buy much more with the same amount of $ Risk.

 

When you start to see this you will become more patient and not chase trades. WHY? Because you will see that getting in at a latter time can actually make you more money.

 

Check out the Photos and Calm down and do not chase trades. Just use Position Size to your advantage! The first Pic would make 241 at target and the second 402 GBP.

 

This trade is actually winning.

 

The Pip Thief

5aa70f81680a7_12-14-2009NotagoodTrade.thumb.png.7c1068783bcd82fb5c325be198319eff.png

5aa70f817016d_12-14-2009betterTrade.thumb.png.58c199d9f9317faf073f47cc16219a67.png

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The Pip Thief    10

The Pip Thief
Posted

Small stop big reward. I lost 2 before this for 1% each. If this one hits then it paid for these two and up 5%.

 

The risk was cleared on this trade several minutes after getting into the position.

 

Look at photo.

 

The Pip Thief

5aa70f8351ca4_12-16-2009GBP1minuteTrade.thumb.png.5045a377f3648959eaf284e450db7b82.png

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The Pip Thief    10

The Pip Thief
Posted

Added 66000 to my position. Notice how my average price is still lower then where my trailing stop is. This is important because you never want to turn a winning position into a loser. Lets see if this one hits. Now using a 2 minute chart for the to manage the trade.

 

The Pip Thief

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The Pip Thief    10

The Pip Thief
Posted

Hello Sleepy,

 

I was a little sleepy there so it took me some time to reply. No I have had some personal issues to deal with and did not log on for some time now.

 

I went and checked them out. I am undecided between Stator and MSA.

 

If I could hear some feedback from users on both of them I would greatly appreciate the help.

 

TY

 

The Pip Thief.

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The Pip Thief    10

The Pip Thief
Posted

Hello Sleepy,

 

I was a little sleepy there so it took me some time to reply. No I have had some personal issues to deal with and did not log on for some time now.

 

I went and checked them out. I am undecided between Stator and MSA.

 

If I could hear some feedback from users on both of them I would greatly appreciate the help.

 

TY:)

 

The Pip Thief.

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natedredd10    10

natedredd10
Posted
You could try a MonteCarlo simulation as this will give an idea of your risk of ruin based on percent risk, reward factor and strike rate. I wrote and article on this which has a downloadable Excel spreadsheet that may help and I will pm you the link.

Paul

 

Hey Paul can you just post that link in here? I would love to check that out.

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The Pip Thief    10

The Pip Thief
Posted (edited)
I love seeing your entries! Any guidelines you follow for your IB or ABC patterns??

 

Thanks Daedalus! I actually stopped posting because the thread was me talking to myself there for a while and nobody wants to hear someone babbling on about themselves. So it does give me pleasure to hear your kind words.

 

As for my set-ups. The most important aspect of them all is that I look for low range bars to enter so I can buy more contracts or money in the method IB(Interactive Brokers) takes their orders. With IB they want the $ amount and not the lot quantity. This means that you can enter any size $ value in increments of $1000 as long as the order is over $25,000. This allows you to size right up to your actual % Risk.

 

As for the actual set-up I am just looking for the ABC in the swing chart and then if at the top of the swing I get a low range bar then I am in heaven. Why? Because I can buy a lot of money on the low range bars. I can use a tight stop and if the bar breaks in the right direction I am sized and in within seconds. Pretty basic but the profits are all in the way I size the position. I have done a lot of math on sizing models and tight stops rule because you will get on those 10 to 15 pounders once in a while. Risking 1% and getting back 15% is a great feeling even if it only happens rarely.

 

Look at the charts I have attached and you will see why even if I get stopped out with the tight stops it is better than using a large stop of 20 to 30 pips which many traders use. Or a Fixed $ amount. It is Friday so I am going to do a short post for you. Check out the 2 ABC's from yesterday and then the one we had today as well but I did not post the pic. You can almost always find these and even several per day. The key to making big money on them is the right sizing.

 

The Pip Thief

5aa70ff975e09_4-17-2010AnotherABC.thumb.png.131c295fc0ae566ebaa5f1e52db3575f.png

5aa70ff97e97d_4-17-2010AnotherABC2.thumb.png.fdb6d0fd59d872055db1dea56dc0834c.png

5aa70ff986610_4-17-2010AnotherABC3.thumb.png.dd7d58e5539f6db1ee97d494202fbcbb.png

Edited by The Pip Thief
Forgot Pic!

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