Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

brownsfan019

Trading the Grains - Soy, Corn, Wheat

Recommended Posts

BF,

Do you watch wheat or corn very much. I have only been watching soybeans but I took a look at the corn chart today and found the movements pretty tradable. I might have to take a few days to watch the corn charts and see how they trade on SIM.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=15765&stc=1&d=1259086104

5aa70f69571a7_11-24-20093.thumb.png.81b4bf9d409774faf279407b47565392.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is a quick look at the ZS with some timer perspective. I made the mistake of trading the movement in the danger zone today (see chart 2). The ZS can provide home run moves as well as some nice daily moves but they usually occur, IMO, once you've gotten the extremes of the range we are in. The middle chop area provides much less statistically sound trade setups so I always come back to the idea that I should just trade the best setups and not just any setups. You'll also notice that the speed of movement and volatility are much less exciting the days were are sitting in the middle of this zone.

 

Look at some of the moves on the first chart where price broke out of the zone it was in. Those could be days you make 3 month's worth of money if you can manage your risk appropriately with some additional contracts.

 

If you have some similar analysis on any of the other grains or a different perspective on trading the ZS please post something.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=15768&stc=1&d=1259088516

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=15769&stc=1&d=1259088516

5aa70f696c9ba_11-24-20094.thumb.png.6a9a76d59ecf9b5387f328b4369cbc88.png

5aa70f697353c_11-24-20095.thumb.png.994d3c697aeb81e2ae04f53a63e697c2.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
BF,

Do you watch wheat or corn very much. I have only been watching soybeans but I took a look at the corn chart today and found the movements pretty tradable. I might have to take a few days to watch the corn charts and see how they trade on SIM.

 

I watch it but I just like the moves on Soy and get trades there just about every day so I focus there. Typically my grain trade is the last one of the day and I just focus on Soy b/c I like the movements.

 

Just make sure to watch wheat or corn intraday to get a feel for them. Not quite the same as Soy IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here is a quick look at the ZS with some timer perspective. I made the mistake of trading the movement in the danger zone today (see chart 2). The ZS can provide home run moves as well as some nice daily moves but they usually occur, IMO, once you've gotten the extremes of the range we are in. The middle chop area provides much less statistically sound trade setups so I always come back to the idea that I should just trade the best setups and not just any setups. You'll also notice that the speed of movement and volatility are much less exciting the days were are sitting in the middle of this zone.

 

Look at some of the moves on the first chart where price broke out of the zone it was in. Those could be days you make 3 month's worth of money if you can manage your risk appropriately with some additional contracts.

 

If you have some similar analysis on any of the other grains or a different perspective on trading the ZS please post something.

 

Charts look good dinero! I don't really use the bigger timeframe or view much, so I don't have much to contribute there. But if it helps to post, keep doing it. Eventually we might snag an ES guy to come over to our side. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Charts look good dinero! I don't really use the bigger timeframe or view much, so I don't have much to contribute there. But if it helps to post, keep doing it. Eventually we might snag an ES guy to come over to our side. ;)

 

It doesn't help you to see where things are at on a larger scale?

 

I always feel like my better trades occur at the range extremes so the larger time frames help me identify those.

 

What is the largest time frame you look at or thing is useful for you?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It doesn't help you to see where things are at on a larger scale?

 

I always feel like my better trades occur at the range extremes so the larger time frames help me identify those.

 

What is the largest time frame you look at or thing is useful for you?

 

Currently I watch 1 chart per market. That's it. And currently the 1 minute chart is working fine. I could adjust that setting based on volatility. If you recall I'm looking to get in w/in the first 2 hours of a market being open, so I'm really interested to see what the opening prints are doing. I'm looking to make a trade based on expected volatility due to the opening of the market + econ news (if any). Coincidentally some of my worst performing days coincide with little/zero econ news.

 

There's nothing wrong w/ the approach you are taking here. I was doing the same thing at one point as well. I just turned a different corner at some point and haven't looked back. Once I decided I didn't need to peg every single move of every single day, a whole new world opened up to me - one where I could zero in on the most volatile part of the trading day and try to exploit that small, but very potentially profitable timeframe.

 

It's worked well for me but I'm not suggesting you or anyone reading this abandon what they are doing and just pull up some 1 minute charts and give it a whirl. I'm not even 100% sure how I got to this point but I did. And as long as it's working, I won't be changing too much to it. I've done that enough times that now I'm worn out from trying to hit every move and make a million bucks every day. I'll take a few hundred to a few thousand and call it a day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Currently I watch 1 chart per market. That's it. And currently the 1 minute chart is working fine.

 

I am surprised you can watch soybeans on a 1 minute chart with the 1st minute being so fast. Don't you just end up with 1 big ol' candle?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Coincidentally some of my worst performing days coincide with little/zero econ news.

 

Can you give some examles of the kind of news that will move the ZS?

Also is seasonality a factor in your trading?

(probably not because you mentioned that you use the same setup for all your instruments - if I remember correctly)

 

Thaks

 

Gabe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I am surprised you can watch soybeans on a 1 minute chart with the 1st minute being so fast. Don't you just end up with 1 big ol' candle?

 

Sometimes I do but many times I'm not entering right on the open so things calm down a bit form there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Can you give some examles of the kind of news that will move the ZS?

Also is seasonality a factor in your trading?

(probably not because you mentioned that you use the same setup for all your instruments - if I remember correctly)

 

Thaks

 

Gabe

 

When I say econ news - I meant in general for the day. When there's news to be released, I usually have better days, which includes the ZS. I am not aware of any specific news related to the ZS that moves the market. I think it typically moves on it's own.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is where we stand on the ZS. A valiant effort to break higher today only to come right back before close. Just about the same thing happened yesterday except today the bulls had a little more gusto during the 1st hour of trading but they subsequently got beaten down the rest of the day. 2 tries at new highs and both tries failed.

I will be looking for a breakdown tomorrow especially since today's close was ended in a drop off.

 

I wish I could see a multi year chart of this so I could tell if seaonality affects the larger picture. If anyone has a larger scale chart, please share.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=16163&stc=1&d=1259703956

5aa70f751d595_12-1-20093.thumb.png.024cc490292fc5cba3b827a30e591294.png

Edited by Dinerotrader
Good suggestion by BF to unclutter the chart

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good look at the chart dinero. One suggestion - to get your chart less cluttered, you can turn the grid lines off. I think they just get in the way creating more stuff that's unnecessary. Go into the current profile >> thing in the top right corner to turn those off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More of a daily longer term trade but i thought i would post it.

Wheat Mar10 - I like the fact that B is at a great level than A.

This occurred twice - the first as it tended to signal the end of the recent large decline from last year.

the second more recent one indicates to me that it is more likely to bounce off support and rally at least back toward B again.

I would enter a small amount on support, then enter more on a strong day, and look to run it.

Stop while i would position size off a stop at a close below 5 - I would tend to watch and any weakness below this level at 540 would probably see me cut it.

(this trade worked in mid Nov - catching some of the break above 525.

WheatSupport.thumb.png.20704967fd8f2c82096c03e2d941f01f.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I apologise - ignore the last chart it seemed to be the continuous futures contract from esignal, and not the actual march contract.

the march contract looks similar but is NOT yet at support for the actual contract - which is more like 510.

The error occurred as I had not rolled over this particular contract on this particular sheet.

Normally I trade off and look at the actual contract I intend to trade,

but I also look at the continuous contract for the general context.

Always best to look closer.

(Which raises an interesting question about support and resistance when it comes to futures contracts and the contango/backwardation S/R levels.

Support in one contract - is the based on that particular contract or for previous contracts - clearly not)

Edited by DugDug

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Corn - ZC

1/10/10

 

Price is right near resistance and its had a couple tries to breakthough without success. Monday might be a good day for the bulls to finally give in and let this thing go. Not sure if the extreme cold weather is keeping prices up right now. I wish I had some fundamental understanding of the grains futures price changes just so I understood the big picture a little more.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=17547&stc=1&d=1263174978

5aa70f9e35bba_SNAG-1-10-201002.thumb.png.e69fed67a1311ef3a3f599f242e23f0e.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have been watching this for a while....along with Wheat, which has been performing better.

For me - All the commodities are running which makes it seem more bullish, people are worried about inflation, the cold weather, etc;

I also have been reading a lot of info about people worried about supply issues with regards commodities this year, which mean that buyers may get a little desperate, and sellers may not be in a hurry to sell.

CTAs may start to switch shorts to longs if it breaks above 425 levels.

I also like that this is the third time at it, which for me means if it does break up, I would let it go.

Apart from all that.....as fundamentals , smundamentals if the price does not confirm it.

I have attached the same chart, with some very simple ideas attached - trend line, fib extension targets.

While I think there could be a small pullback - a rejection of a break eg; to 410, I would definately not wish to be short this.

CornTrade.thumb.png.db192015b6b098c825b4d868c5bb81e6.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Doh!

looks like some USDA - I mean who the hell are these guys? Who do they think they are?

are going to spoil the corn party, as they think there is plenty of it around. This is going to hurt.:doh:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow, my first experience with a limit day. I wish I had kept my shorts from yesterday.:)

I can't imagine the feeling of those stuck on the long side of todays move. I am very curious to see how the movement is tomorrow.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=17623&stc=1&d=1263317166

5aa70fa0404a5_1-12-20101.png.872b06179f5f401b09d1dbda2101314a.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Was everyone who trades corn waiting for that forecast to come out or does the USDA just come out with that forecasts whenever the want? I'd like to be prepared if forecasts are scheduled to come out on the grains. Anyone know about this?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 29th March 2024. GBPUSD Analysis: The Pound Trades Higher But For How Long? The global Stocks Markets are closed due to Easter Friday (Good Friday). The NASDAQ continued to follow the sideways trend while other indices again rose. The SNP500 reaches an all-time high, but the NASDAQ remains under pressure from Tesla, Meta and Apple. The Euro continues to trade lower against all major currencies including the US Dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen. The British Pound is the best performing currency during this morning’s Asian session. However, investors are largely fixing their attention on this afternoon’s Core PCE Price Index. GBPUSD – The Pound Trades Higher but For How Long? The GBPUSD is slightly higher than the day’s open and is primary due to the Pound’s strong performance. At the moment, the British Pound is increasing in value against all major currencies. However, the US Dollar Index is also trading 0.10% higher and for this reason there is a slight conflict here. If investors wish to avoid this conflict, the EURUSD is a better option. This is because, the Euro depreciating against the whole currency market avoiding the “tug-of-war” scenario. The GBPUSD is trading slightly lower than the 2-month’s average price and is trading at 49.10 on the RSI. For this reason, the price of the exchange is at a “neutral” level and is signalling neither a buy nor a sell. The day’s price action and future signals are possibly likely to be triggered by this afternoon’s Core PCE Price Index. Analysts expect the Core PCE Price Index to read 0.3% which is slightly lower than the previous month but will result in the annual figure remaining at 2.85%. The PCE rate is different to the inflation rate and the Fed aims for a rate between 1.5% to 2.00%. Therefore, even if the annual rate remains at 2.85%, as analysts expect, it would be too high for the Fed. If the rate increases, even if only slightly, the US Dollar can again renew bullish momentum and the stock market can come under pressure. This includes the SNP500. Investors are focused on the publication of data on the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the last quarter of 2023: the quarterly figures decreased by 0.3%, and 0.2% over the past 12-months. This confirms the state of a shallow recession and the need for stimulation. The data, combined with a cooling labor market and a steady decline in inflation, increase the likelihood that the Bank of England will soon begin interest rate cuts. In the latest meeting the Bank of England representatives did not see any members vote for a hike. USA500 – The SNP500 Rises to New Highs, But Cannot Hold Onto Gains! The price of the SNP500 rises to an all-time high, before correcting 0.33% and ending the day slightly lower than the open price. Nonetheless, the index performs better than the NASDAQ which came under pressure from Tesla, Meta and Apple which hold a higher weight compared to the SNP500. For the SNP500, these 3 stocks hold a weight of 9.25%, whereas the 3 stocks make up 14.63% of the NASDAQ. The SNP500 is also supported by ExxonMobil’s gains due to higher energy prices. The market will remain closed on Friday due to Easter. However, the market will reopen on Monday for the US and investors can expect high volatility. Investors will also need to take into consideration how the PCE Price Index and the changed value of the US Dollar is likely to affect the stock market next week. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • MT4 is good and will be good until their parent company keep updating the software, later mt4 users will have to switch to mt5.
    • $SOUN SoundHound AI stock at 5.91 support area , see https://stockconsultant.com/?SOUN
    • $ELEV Elevation Oncology stock bull flag breakout watch , see https://stockconsultant.com/?ELEV
    • $AVDX AvidXchange stock narrow range breakout watch above 13.32 , see https://stockconsultant.com/?AVDX
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.