FX Ellioticians

[throughthemud 10]

i'm looking out for possible strong upside on the euro. last move was 5 waves up and the last wave up still hasn't been fully retraced

[throughthemud 10]

End of Week Euro Analysis

 

Unfortunately it appears the EUR/USD has not yet topped. The move downward was in 3 waves and the wave v (circle) was not fully retraced so I'm reentered on the long side and have changed what I was previously counting as the entirety of wave v (circle) as being wave (i) of wave v (circle).

 

If you look at the 15 minute chart of the euro I have labeled what I believe to be a series of ones and twos leading to a high momentum rise for wave iii of (iii). Minimal targets will be 1.4793 but I expect it will go higher than 1.4840.

 

I have also attached a couple daily charts. The first shows the subdivisions of wave 5 of ©. As shown on the chart the equality target for wave i (circle) and wave v (circle) is about 1.4943. Not shown is that the target where wave (i) is 0.618 the length of the entire wave v (circle) which is just 40 pips beyond that at about 1.4988.

 

The last chart is also a daily a chart showing a trendline from the tops of wave 1 and 3 and also price targets for equality between waves 1 and 5. These projections are farther out and it's too soon to see if any of these will matter.

[throughthemud 10]

This is a weekly chart of the EUR/GBP. I might start trading this also since it would help me with my euro and pound trades. As I have the chart labeled the euro is in a bullish primary wave 1 (circle) move against the pound. This might alternatively be wave B circle but no matter which is corrective it appears the euro will continue to advance against the pound for quick some time. This fits with my forecast for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs.

[throughthemud 10]

GBP/USD End of Week Analysis

 

I was expecting a new low today but we got a truncation at best. I'm not completely comfortable with calling that the end of the wave but I am trying a cautious long play anyway. Looks like we'll have an upward correction next followed by a lot more bearishness. Wave 3 looks like it has the power to be an extension so my minimal targets are the 1.618 levels on the daily chart.

 

There are a few things that make me nervous about where the pound has been. The first thing is that ugly correction after wave 1. Second the overlap between wave (iv) and wave (i) of wave i (circle). The third is the questionable truncation that occurred yesterday. My count still fits the form of the bigger picture so I'll keep trading that way until I'm proven wrong.

[throughthemud 10]

I got stopped out at a profit but I'm looking to reenter. I don't want to believe that triangle until we break 1.4613

[throughthemud 10]

target on euro is 1.4475

[throughthemud 10]

the last 5 wave structure down on the euro had an overlap on the fourth wave triangle and all 3 waves down were about equal in magnitude. There are two ways of counting this. It is either a c wave of a larger degree or the first wave down of a larger degree. The most likely is that it was the entirety of wave 1 down. There is another possibility that I have not seen since I've been trading elliott waves and that is where there are 5 approximately equal waves down (an undefined extension). I will of course trade the highest probability interpretation and change if price invalidates it

[throughthemud 10]

by my estimation a wave b has just ended so i'm currently looking for 1.4710 on the euro

[throughthemud 10]

setting up for 3rd of 3rd down gbp and euro

[throughthemud 10]

The euro appears to have finished a 5 wave pattern and an a wave but ultimately i see more downside today. the pound appears to have just completed a bearish triangle or is close to it

[throughthemud 10]

got a late start today. i was hoping the markets would wait for me. looks like the down trend in the djia was confirmed. hopefully we'll see confirmation of the up trend in the dollar today or tomorrow

[throughthemud 10]

the euro is likely at or close the bottom of wave i (circle) so we could see multiple up days following this for a wave 2 correction. I will post a chart with targets later.

[throughthemud 10]

i think we're in wave iv of (v) down so we can expect another low at about 1.4490 before continuing with what my last post says

[throughthemud 10]

here are my top counts. right now I favor the count where we just ended wave i (circle) down and will now start (a) of ii (circle). The only problem I see is the wave (iii) of i (circle) I have labeled overlaps itself. Alternated count puts us at the bottom of wave (i) of iii (circle). The way you know which it is is by the form the waves takes and their strength as they develop.

[throughthemud 10]

the last counts I posted are still the ones I'm going with but with either count I expect downside from here. if it is very strong it will be my alternate count and I will try to post targets later

[throughthemud 10]

yesterdays forecast for downside was a mistake as I somehow failed to realize that the C wave had not yet completed 5 waves (all c waves are 5 wave movements) so using elliott wave analysis the correction could not have been completed.

[throughthemud 10]

you can look back at my last gbp/usd chart for reference but it appears wave (4) of 3 is close to finished and I'm still looking at the same targets for the end of wave 3.

[thalestrader 14]

What happened?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Hi - you guys still watching this?

 

I'm a new convert to Elliott and have limited myself to EUR/USD so far.

 

I'd be interested to hear what you have to say about a count on 4H.

 

I thought I had a triangle forming (attached), so expected a continuation break on the upside after e - it seemed to post a throw-under to the support at 14800 (therefore not a valid triangle?).

 

Following this EUR rallied to a new short-term high - I read this as a wave 1 - now following this (attached 2) and would appreciate your count.

 

Thanks,

 

VR

[throughthemud 10]

I've taken on more responsibility outside trading markets and the decreased leverage means forex is no longer my main source of income. I'm trading on a little longer time frame then before. I'm going to try to start posting again but I think the markets are clearing up now so it won't be as difficult to see what's coming next anyway. Here's one chart that is food for thought.

[throughthemud 10]

Hi VR,

Your analysis is good. I was watching the same thing. The throw over/throw under is actually more common than not for a triangle's e wave. This turned out to be part of a more complex pattern so I hope you didn't get killed expecting that 5th wave you were hoping for. I always play 4th and 5th waves very cautiously.

[throughthemud 10]

The USD has made a movement that can be counted as 5 waves and therefore complete for a few days but I don't believe the movement is actually complete. If you look at my chart of the euro the movement since wave 1 down has only been about 1.618 times wave 1. That should be the minimum movement for wave 3. Also this movement has not been nearly as long as the wave 1 for primary wave 1 down. I've been short on this since the beginning of this wave but I won't be adding anymore until it becomes more clear whether this is the end of 1 or just wave 3 or 4.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Hi VR,

Your analysis is good. I was watching the same thing. The throw over/throw under is actually more common than not for a triangle's e wave. This turned out to be part of a more complex pattern so I hope you didn't get killed expecting that 5th wave you were hoping for. I always play 4th and 5th waves very cautiously.

Hi..Thanks very much...I did make the mistake of holding out for the 4th & 5th...can't complain though +60pts

 

I'm currently liking € on the downside and will post my next count when I have something

[throughthemud 10]

If you look at the chart I attached you will see where I think the wave count stands. I think wave 3 of (1) of primary 3 has concluded and we will see wave 4 starting Sunday. Here are some calculations I did...

_______________________________

wave 1 down of primary 3

 

1 of (1) of 3 (circle)

origin 1.51436

terminus 1.48277

 

length 315.9

 

2 of (1) of 3 (circle)

origin 1.48277

terminus 1.51406

 

length 312.9

retracement 99.05%

 

3 of (1) of 3 (circle)

origin 1.51406

terminus (1.46680/1.45855/1.42608)

 

length (472.6/555.1/879.8)

extension of 1(1.496/1.757/2.785)

_________________________________________________

 

There are 3 points for the terminus of wave 3 due to different possibilities I see but the second is more likely than the first and the third is the most likely of all (the count I'm trading by). That is the most likely count because it is near a common fib level in relation to wave 1, the RSI has diverged and there has not been a movement I would feel comfortable calling a wave 4. Last week I posted that I felt is wasn't long enough because of its relation to wave (1) of primary 1. It has now surpassed the magnitude of that wave (not surprisingly).

 

Looking into the future this correction is likely to be somewhat sideways with a retracement to at least 1.4595 (38%). If the first section of the correction is sharp I will likely only play that section to the upside and then reenter on the downside and wait out the rest of wave 4 without playing it. There's a good chance that wave 4 could consume all of next week.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Hi TMT,

 

I had been trying to get into an 'easy-to-take' short since the $ turnaround...unsurprisingly the €/$ got sold off before hitting really obvious levels until I managed to hook into the resistance @ 14585 on 16th - my setup was I had a 5-wave count down then what looked like an expanding flat correction.

 

14585 was a previous SR level already marked on my chart

+/- a 50% retracement of my 5-wave count down

168% of A off the bottom of B

Had Stochastic overbot on the 1H & 15M (+ a 15M divergence)

1H MACD looked to be failing to break up thru the 0 line

 

Clearly a correction is due but this break-down is already extended...I think I'll stick with trying to get all my ducks in a row on the smaller timeframes and carry on plugging away...the 14585 paid out 200pts on a 20pt initial stop.

 

It'll be interesting to see tomorrow whether this bounce pans out or not

 

Tks,

 

VR