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Your Pink (first one) down Traverse has a Point One in the incorrect location. If the medium pink trend lines represent acceleration, you do not have a new Point One.

 

 

If I could ask some clarification on what you are saying here regarding This Chart did you mean:

 

1. The Pink (first one) Traverse can not exist in that location the way I have the chart annotated?

 

or

 

2. The Pink (first one) Traverse can not exist in that location on a properly annotated chart?

 

Sorry if I am being dense here.

 

TIA

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If I could ask some clarification on what you are saying here regarding This Chart

 

If you look at my older charts, you'll often see numerous examples of where I added a 'new' Point One of a container - specifically during periods of Pace Acceleration. This was more a function of the annotation tool I used (for placing 1, 2, 3 on a chart), rather than, a function of how markets operate.

 

To be clear, a Point One always begins a container.

 

Rather than think in terms of a 'new' Point One (or two different colors for the same Line Weight thickness), you should consider the entire move (to Point Two of the Channel) as one Traverse which required an acceleration of its RTL (Right Trend Line). After all. VE's do not represent the only circumstance which results in an acceleration of the RTL.

 

In other words, a Point One isn't going to move,

 

Please note: We have only discussed a Point One.

 

Edit: To some, the above might appear as nothing more than semantics. However, down the road, when you start to compare the relative vs. absolute nature of things, you'll not send yourself down the incorrect path.

 

HTH.

 

- Spydertrader

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Just wondering if any devout followers of this method have successfully applied it to markets in real time with real money.

we were asked this question time after time, The answer way back when the method just got posted was 'may be' , 'I dont know', 'I hope so'. but now there are many 'yes' and if thing goes the way its there will be more yes still.

 

Simply stated, I am incredibly skeptical that anyone can apply this with any type of long term success.

Jack have been around more years than all your fingers and toes combine, if that is not long term, I dont know know what to tell you.

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Rather than think in terms of a 'new' Point One (or two different colors for the same Line Weight thickness), you should consider the entire move (to Point Two of the Channel) as one Traverse which required an acceleration of its RTL (Right Trend Line). After all. VE's do not represent the only circumstance which results in an acceleration of the RTL.

 

In other words, a Point One isn't going to move,

 

 

Thanks very much :)

 

Is the attached an accurate representation of this concept?

 

Or have I taken it a step too far and Pt1(the real one)>Pt3 must always connect geometrically?

 

Thanks again!

accpt1.png.42c17051a8e4f6a4e7fcfb6132bde764.png

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You should consider the effect changing Pace has on your ability to 'see' things clearly, and start again.

All I notice is that the non-dom 'subtapes' (blue lines) typically start with vol well below extreme pace, even after the transition to extreme vol in the 14:50 dom bar.

 

You should also consider annotating three fractals in an effort to see how the nesting process works. Sometimes proper nesting of fractals can make things a bit easier to see.

 

Ok. Attached w/ three levels of gaussians. From this perspective, it is clear that the 10am->11am movement is just a tape from point 2 to 3 of the traverse.

 

From this (more volume-oriented) point of view, how do I know that the b2bs after sequence completion (14:50) but before the pt2 (10:00)? Is that where the VE's come in?

 

Thanks for taking the time to comment.

10131a2.thumb.gif.4d01ad411d631b4e4657b8d764c3cd96.gif

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Is the attached an accurate representation of this concept?

 

Your question assumes too many things which may or may not represent a true indication of the market, and which may or may not indicate a specific context, rather than, an overall concept applicable to any context.

 

As such, answering your question assures transference of untended information.

 

Therefore, rather than answer your question, I'll reword my previous post.

 

[begin rewrite of previous post]

 

Point One's (of a specific container) do not move (within that specific container).

 

[End rewrite of previous post]

 

HTH.

 

- Spydertrader

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All I notice is that the non-dom 'subtapes' (blue lines) typically start with vol well below extreme pace, even after the transition to extreme vol in the 14:50 dom bar.

 

A significant amount of information exists with the creation of each and every Volume Bar. Similarly, the market provides far more information, with respect to Pace Changes, than just how 'non-dom sub tapes' present themselves.

 

 

Ok. Attached w/ three levels of gaussians. From this perspective, it is clear that the 10am->11am movement is just a tape from point 2 to 3 of the traverse.

 

How can you know if your statement resulted from accurate (or incorrect) information?

 

 

From this (more volume-oriented) point of view, how do I know that the b2bs after sequence completion (14:50) but before the pt2 (10:00)? Is that where the VE's come in?

 

Context, always has been, and always will be, king. You cannot make decisions in a vacuum. VE's must always be handled in a consistant fashion. Fanning must always be handled in a consistant fashion. Pace changes must always be handled in a consistant fashion. Order of events must always be handled in a consistant fashion. Dominance and Non-dominance must always be handled in a consistant fashion.

 

The current Traverse under discussion exists within a known entity called a channel. Annotate all components of the channel in a consistant fashion and you'll understand the answers you seek existed right in front of you all along.

 

- Spydertrader

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Digging around looking at Pace, I found some similarities in a couple of areas on my beloved 10/13-10/15 chart.

 

The second highlighted area is a Traverse. I know the first area can not be a Traverse, but it is interesting anyway.

 

Or, I am just seeing things :crap:

twothings.thumb.png.25738bf04b7512f82aa3e7fed6b7cc99.png

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Digging around looking at Pace, I found some similarities in a couple of areas on my beloved 10/13-10/15 chart.

 

The second highlighted area is a Traverse. I know the first area can not be a Traverse, but it is interesting anyway.

 

Or, I am just seeing things :crap:

 

 

I o not know what you are seeing. But you still do not want to annotate all of the tapes in the last traverse to see the things the way the market presented them to you. This is a hazardous journey.

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Some things to keep in mind:

 

1. Your Pink (first one) down Traverse has a Point One in the incorrect location. If the medium pink trend lines represent acceleration, you do not have a new Point One. The first tape, the first traverse and the channel itself all have the same Point One (Red Number One on your chart) - always and without exception.

 

2. Note the Pace changes. Pace influences all frctals - not just medium and thick.

 

 

My latest annotations for 10/13-10/15 attached. The only modifications from the last chart occur in the area between Pt 1 > Pt 2 of the first Traverse.

 

I know there is a "disconnect" in the gaussians for Tape 1 but I am not sure how else to depict my intentions in this area.

 

Thank you for any comments you may have!

es101315again.thumb.png.9bab387d4fa4480589f93047748eaa13.png

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Working on annotation skills and nesting.Comments welcome
Quick comments:

I believe a few useful laterals could be drawn (e.g. 1125 end of bar).

In my view, some gaussians you've drawn don't accurately reflect the volume trends.

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My latest annotations for 10/13-10/15 attached. The only modifications from the last chart occur in the area between Pt 1 > Pt 2 of the first Traverse.

 

I know there is a "disconnect" in the gaussians for Tape 1 but I am not sure how else to depict my intentions in this area.

 

Thank you for any comments you may have!

 

 

Can you talk about accelerating your pink traverse to a new pt3 @ 10/14 14:00? It seems necessary on my chart too, but I can't figure out what gives us the 'heads up' that a new traverse pt3 is on the table.

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Am trying to get my mind correctly around the concepts of the gaussians and fractals...if I dont build an accurate model in my head, annotating is just guesswork... so I re-read the thread.

I ran into an older post by tiki which starts with bbt's. then tapes, then traverses, then channels.

I had been confused before since I thought we are annotating in 3 fractals, not 4 (i thought the smallest level was the tape, not the bbt).

 

So- just to get this clear in my head: we are talking about 4 fractals, and the sequences have to complete in each-correct?

 

Sorry if this question sounds newbie.

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Am trying to get my mind correctly around the concepts of the gaussians and fractals...if I dont build an accurate model in my head, annotating is just guesswork... so I re-read the thread.

I ran into an older post by tiki which starts with bbt's. then tapes, then traverses, then channels.

I had been confused before since I thought we are annotating in 3 fractals, not 4 (i thought the smallest level was the tape, not the bbt).

 

So- just to get this clear in my head: we are talking about 4 fractals, and the sequences have to complete in each-correct?

 

Sorry if this question sounds newbie.

 

what is your pleasure?

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So- just to get this clear in my head: we are talking about 4 fractals, and the sequences have to complete in each-correct.
.

 

We want to always annotate three fractal levels. Sometimes, we have the ability to see more than three fractal levels. Sometimes it is difficult just to see three levels.

 

The market provides clues as to when one can expect difficulty seeing three levels, as well as, times when we can expect to see more than three levels.

 

- Spydertrader

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My confusion stems from the fact that you wrote in the beginning "Attached, please find ten scenarios which cover the number of two bar (or more) formations (the smallest tape) possible as formed by the market."

 

Then I discovered that what is created by these scenarios could actually be a "bbt", a building block of a tape, and not a tape- how do I know which it is?

 

 

.

 

We want to always annotate three fractal levels. Sometimes, we have the ability to see more than three fractal levels. Sometimes it is difficult just to see three levels.

 

The market provides clues as to when one can expect difficulty seeing three levels, as well as, times when we can expect to see more than three levels.

 

- Spydertrader

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My confusion stems from the fact that you wrote in the beginning "Attached, please find ten scenarios which cover the number of two bar (or more) formations (the smallest tape) possible as formed by the market."

 

Then I discovered that what is created by these scenarios could actually be a "bbt", a building block of a tape, and not a tape- how do I know which it is?

 

 

Think in terms of tapes. Start with what is observable. To observe a traverse you need at least two tapes break each other, whereas the volume tells you whether those breaks are noteworthy or not.

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Am trying to get my mind correctly around the concepts of the gaussians and fractals...if I dont build an accurate model in my head, annotating is just guesswork... so I re-read the thread.

I ran into an older post by tiki which starts with bbt's. then tapes, then traverses, then channels.

I had been confused before since I thought we are annotating in 3 fractals, not 4 (i thought the smallest level was the tape, not the bbt).

 

So- just to get this clear in my head: we are talking about 4 fractals, and the sequences have to complete in each-correct?

 

Sorry if this question sounds newbie.

It's better to attach illustrative chart snippets to your questions. You know how they say "a picture is ..." :)

 

Slower paces act as a magnifier, so you can see finer fractals. Faster paces hide finer fractals. Step back and look at the broader picture!

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.

 

We want to always annotate three fractal levels.

 

- Spydertrader

 

Hello Spyder,

 

I have attached one of your charts from early last year.

 

I know that you have said we should be cautious about using older charts because emphasis/conventions were different then, so my first question is, Is this chart annotated according to the conventions that you are seeking to transfer in this thread?

 

If the answer to this question is "yes", then my question concerns the Gaussians and fractals annotated that some of us find difficult to understand?

 

The chart clearly shows (at certain times, but not always) thin, medium and thick Gaussians. However, at times we do not have 3 levels of Gaussians. For example, at 12:40 an increasing red (thick) Gaussian starts and simultaneously we have a medium (r2r2b2r). The two end at 13:25. There is no annotated thin Gaussian whatsoever for this period, and I cannot see how it would be possible to annotate a thin level sequence over this period. (It is almost as if, as Gucci said, the market "jumped fractals!")

 

After that we have a b2b where only thick level Gaussians are annotated (at least in the beginning, no medium and no thin, and again I don't see how they would be possible in the context.) Thats why I find if confusing when you say that we always want to annotate 3 fractal levels .... or am I wrongly equating fractal levels with Gaussians lines of different thickness :confused:

 

In a nutshell, does always annotating three fractal levels imply always and everywhere having 3 (thin, medium and thick) sets of Gaussians. I think this is a misconception that I have had for a long time, and which the recent productive discussion has begun to dispel, but I would like confirmation. Your patience and support is much appreciated.

02-03-09.thumb.jpg.de3c53ab1cfb49b95f7763976ee11880.jpg

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Ok...perhaps i am focusing on something that is not important. I tried to break this down and start with the smallest piece (equivalent to the letter in the alphabet), only to discover that there seems to be an even smaller piece.Since this is partly like learning a language, I felt that the definitions had to be unambiguous....but it seems that others here do not have that issue, so it must be some misunderstanding on my part...

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It's better to attach illustrative chart snippets to your questions. You know how they say "a picture is ..." :)

 

 

Here you go... what is called a tape in the image I took to be a traverse...

bbt.thumb.gif.de8a961007625b0cdd2f4d2c7c996246.gif

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Here you go... what is called a tape in the image I took to be a traverse...

 

Listen. You need to fight the urge to overcomplicate things. In the beginning stages of attempting to learn this material, everyone (including myself) tries to 'invent' different ways they 'feel' might best suite their needs, but the reality is, far different than one expects. You currently find yourself 'hung up' on vocabulary. Your prior educational experience dictates you need to understand vocabulary in order to understand a concept. This is true only in cases where vocabulary is the differentiating factor.

 

In this specific case the words "tape, traverse, channel, bbt, sub bbt sub-sub bbt (or however many fractals down the rabbit hole one wishes to travel)" have zero relevance to understanding. One could just as easily use "thin, medium, thick, dotted, dashed, dot-dashed" or even "pig, goat, cow, spider, insect, bateria" to describe the exact same events. You understand the "pig, goat, cow" analogy because you know the absolute definition of each organism. You therefore assume, using the same approach, all you need is to understand the absolute definition of "tape, traverse, channel or bbt," What the reality is you have yet to understand that the market often speaks in a language which (while sometimes providing absolutes) most frequently transfers information in a relative sense.

 

In other words, you should focus on when you have a completed container compared to when the market continues to build the same container. In such a fashion, you need not know what to call the container itself, but by applying the fractal nature of all markets, you can know when one container has ended, and another has begun.

 

- Spydertrader

Edited by Spydertrader

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Here you go... what is called a tape in the image I took to be a traverse...

what 'the man' said above also I look at picture and I notice each piece of three big pieces has 3 smaller pieces inside I think that is what the picture trying to convey.

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    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
    • Date: 16th April 2024. Market News – Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows. Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected retail sales eliciting a broad sell off in the markets. Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a 50-50 chance. Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week’s declines amid the rise in yields. Investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation. There’s growing anxiety over earnings even after a big beat from Goldman Sachs. UK labor market data was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated – The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE. China grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon. Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook. Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Financial Markets Performance:   The US Dollar rallied to 106.19 after testing 106.25, gaining against JPY and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level. Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed. USOIL is flat at $85 per barrel. Market Trends:   Breaks of key technical levels exacerbated the sell off. Tech was the big loser with the NASDAQ plunging -1.79% to 15,885 while the S&P500 dropped -1.20% to 5061, with the Dow sliding -0.65% to 37,735. The S&P had the biggest 2-day sell off since March 2023. Nikkei and ASX lost -1.9% and -1.8% respectively, and the Hang Seng is down -2.1%. European bourses are down more than -1% and US futures are also in the red. CTA selling tsunami: “Just a few points lower CTAs will for the first time this year start selling in size, to add insult to injury, we are breaking major trend-lines in equities and the gamma stabilizer is totally gone.” Short term CTA threshold levels are kicking in big time according to GS. Medium term is 4873 (most important) while the long term level is at 4605. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 15th April 2024. Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict. However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict. New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70. The Yen dip against USD to 153.85. USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce. Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180. Market Trends:   Asian stock markets traded mixed, but European and US futures are slightly higher after a tough session on Friday and yields have picked up. Mainland China bourses outperformed overnight, after Beijing offered renewed regulatory support. The PBOC meanwhile left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged, while once again draining funds from the system. Nikkei slipped 1% to 39,114.19. On Friday, NASDAQ slumped -1.62% to 16,175, unwinding most of Thursday’s 1.68% jump to a new all-time high at 16,442. The S&P500 fell -1.46% and the Dow dropped 1.24%. Declines were broadbased with all 11 sectors of the S&P finishing in the red. JPMorgan Chase sank 6.5% despite reporting stronger profit in Q1. The nation’s largest bank gave a forecast for a key source of income this year that fell below Wall Street’s estimate, calling for only modest growth. Apple shipments drop by 10% in Q1. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • The morning of my last post I happened to glance over to the side and saw “...angst over the FOMC’s rate trajectory triggered a flight to safety, hence boosting the haven demand. “   http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/21621-hfmarkets-hfmcom-market-analysis-services/page/17/?tab=comments#comment-228522   I reacted, but didn’t take time to  respond then... will now --- HFBlogNews, I don’t know if you are simply aggregating the chosen narratives for the day or if it’s your own reporting... either way - “flight to safety”????  haven ?????  Re: “safety  - ”Those ‘solid rocks’ are getting so fragile a hit from a dandelion blowball might shatter them... like now nobody wants to buy longer term new issues at these rates...yet the financial media still follows the scripts... The imagery they pound day in and day out makes it look like the Fed knows what they’re doing to help ‘us’... They do know what they’re doing - but it certainly is not to help ‘us’... and it is not to ‘control’ inflation... And at some point in the not too distant future, the interest due will eat a huge portion of the ‘revenue’ Re: “haven” The defaults are coming ...  The US will not be the first to default... but it will certainly not be the very last to default !! ...Enough casual anti-white racism for the day  ... just sayin’
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