Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

I have a question regarding Thursday's ES chart, for anyone.

How could we know that 13:50 wasn't the FTT ending the up channel?

 

- become

 

In my opinion the sequences weren't complete at that point in time. We still needed 2r2b on the tape fractal. See chart:

100311-MM.thumb.jpg.a283937884c6516370349d8796748510.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
In my opinion the sequences weren't complete at that point in time. We still needed 2r2b on the tape fractal. See chart:

Hi FJK angd everyoone who is interested in PV Relationship

 

Bar 63 is DOJI, closes inside Bar 62 and on Increasing Black Volume. It sure looks like sequence completed here. Could you shed light how a trader should not go short on Bar 63? The up trend kept going on till the end of the day. TIA

5aa70fe628921_FJKSequencecompletion.gif.b7b8d2722e69f285a4fe60a4301e8554.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
In my opinion the sequences weren't complete at that point in time. We still needed 2r2b on the tape fractal. See chart:

 

Thanks for the response. I should have phrased the question more precisely.

 

How do we know, in real time, that the b2b2r2b sequence from 12:40 to 13:50 occurs on a faster fractal?

 

- become

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Could you shed light how a trader should not go short on Bar 63? The up trend kept going on till the end of the day. TIA

 

B2B coming out of the lateral.

Edited by Ezzy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The thick purple channel is most likely a traverse. Got tired of working with skinny line weights so bumped it all up a level. Re-worked this several times, it may still be wrong so buyer beware.

5aa70fe6562c3_2010-02-12ES.thumb.png.40347da2c015804a1e65ae25473bfe2f.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The thick purple channel is most likely a traverse. Got tired of working with skinny line weights so bumped it all up a level. Re-worked this several times, it may still be wrong so buyer beware.

 

fwiw, that's identical to my chart - we can't both be wrong, can we? :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm reviewing some postings from past journals on ET.

Seems emphasis and perspectives have evolved to some degree. (just my opinion)

 

The FTT is the key to

the entire methodology. -Spyder

 

Spyder would you say the FTT is still the key or would it be volume sequence or something else----or is it different for each individual?

Just curious as to the perspective that time and experience has created.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm reviewing some postings from past journals on ET.

 

A wealth of information exists within the previous discussions and past journals. However, one must take great care to understand the context surrounding the discussion illuminated within those old posts.

 

Seems emphasis and perspectives have evolved to some degree. (just my opinion).

 

Taking action within a five minute ES Bar (based on signals generated from a finer tool set) would appear to difer greatly (as a perspective or emphasis) than simply using Coarse Level Tools exclusively. However, in reality, the fractal on which the trader executes represents the only item which actually changes (other than the trader themself).

 

would you say the FTT is still the key or would it be volume sequence or something else----or is it different for each individual?

 

Which piece of the overall puzzle finally aligns the tumblers within a trader's mind differs greatly for each individual taking this journey just as everyone's individual mental filters differ greatly due to their own life experience. As such, one person may easily grasp the concept of Lateral Differentiation but find great dificulty recognizing Volume Sequences. Whereas, another individual cannot complete the Lateral Formation Drill, but has no problem with Volume Sequences. Each piece of the puzzle represents no more or no less an important thing to the person who has yet to overcome their own specific obstacle.

 

However, since all trends begin, and all trends end, in the exact same fashion. One need only have the ability to recognize this specific point in time in order to profit from the information provided by the market itself. As it turns out, the market signals this specific point in time by creating an FTT.

 

Knowing when the market has provided an FTT provides the trader with the signal they require to enter, exit or reverse. I'd say that's pretty important.

 

Just curious as to the perspective that time and experience has created.

 

I have already done, or a continue to do that which I have advised within the many pages of the current discussion. The market's ability to track sentiment over time has not changed since the invention of markets, nor will it change anytime in the foreseeable future.

 

Having the ability to trade profitably represents a consequence of the fully differentiated mind.

 

HTH.

 

- Spydertrader

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Ezzy,

 

Do you mean " B2B" formed from Bars 67, 68, 69 and 70? TIA

 

No, you were asking about bar 63, how you would know on that bar.

 

14:20 is where I see the end of the previous move, and start of the first B2B. 14:20 - 15:20 is a higher level B2B. Sorry, I don't do bar numbers, one less thing to worry about.

 

Regards - EZ

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bar 63 is DOJI, closes inside Bar 62 and on Increasing Black Volume. It sure looks like sequence completed here. Could you shed light how a trader should not go short on Bar 63? The up trend kept going on till the end of the day. TIA

 

In retrospect, I think volume told us that the up-trend wasen't done yet. One other thing, I believe that Spyder mentioned how he handled DOJI bars in NYC in 2009. I remember it as if he didn't 'count' the bar. If so, we have to wait for the next IBV to close outside the previous lateral. In this example, the bar gaped one tick down from the previous bar, so I'm not sure it qualifies as a 'real' DOJI. Other attendees at that meeting feel free to correct my vague memory.

 

If doing SCT, and you did go short on that bar, you would simply correct your mistake as soon as you realize your mistake - at the very latest as price break out of the lateral - by reversing long.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How do we know, in real time, that the b2b2r2b sequence from 12:40 to 13:50 occurs on a faster fractal?

 

- become

 

The only place there is some non-dominant (red) movement (outside the lateral) is the two bars around 1250-1300. If you were to think of these as 2r in a tape, 1250 have to be point 2. It can't be, because it is still inside the previous tape (starting from 1055). My reasoning is therefore that 1240-1350 can not be anything else than a BBT.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I believe that Spyder mentioned how he handled DOJI bars in NYC in 2009. I remember it as if he didn't 'count' the bar.

 

FWIW, I believe he was referring to a "married" doji, where the doji's open/close = prior close. There is an example 2 bars later at 14:55. 13:45 is another nearby example.

 

On the June contract 14:20 - 14:30 are all married doji's, but viewed them differently due to volume/sequences.

 

Not sure if Spyder had certain "contexts" in mind when he mentioned them. Maybe he could clarify?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On a random topic, when anyone here is drawing Traverse and Channel lines, do you find you have to first have an annotated chart for the last several days? And then you squeeze your chart time setting so 2-5 days all fit on the screen at once, and only then annotate your Channel lines (and sometimes Traverses too if the Tapes that day are long-lasting)?

 

I find it very difficult to analyze Channel (and often Traverse) trend lines without "zooming out", was just curious if I am doing this completely incorrectly or this is what is commonly done.

 

On another topic, I've been playing with the new TN Gap Elimination Tool as well as constant trendline angle tool, and these are huge timesavers! Thanks to Spydertrader and anyone else who worked on this. I do have one feedback item (might be something I'm doing wrong), after a new day starts and the overnight gap is eliminated, my previous annotations don't get adjusted so they are off. I'm hoping there is a way for me to grab these annotations and move them up/down all at once to compensate, got to tinker with it some more. The new tools are a big help though! :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On a random topic, when anyone here is drawing Traverse and Channel lines, do you find you have to first have an annotated chart for the last several days? And then you squeeze your chart time setting so 2-5 days all fit on the screen at once, and only then annotate your Channel lines (and sometimes Traverses too if the Tapes that day are long-lasting)? snip....

 

I'm hoping there is a way for me to grab these annotations and move them up/down all at once to compensate, got to tinker with it some more. The new tools are a big help though! :)

 

I squeeze the chart setting too, but only to fill in past traverses, channels. Not during the trading day. Sometimes even changing it to a 10 or 15 min. The issue is when deleting past annotations to keep TN from bogging down. Depending on where we're at I may need several days of channels or traverses to keep my bearings.

 

A nice tool would be to be able to select certain days, or use a box to select areas to delete annotations. Instead of only being able to delete everything. That said, the newer version of TN doesn't seem to be as bad and I've gone a couple weeks before deleting annotations. If you haven't upgraded in a while it's worth it, plus getting the new tools.

 

Regarding moving prior annotations with the gap removal, I was under the impression they were working on it - but don't hold your breath.

 

Regards - EZ

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
One little glitch when using the freeze slope tool. It works fine for trend lines. But if you use TN's trend channel, sometimes the channel will rotate at a fast rate, instead of extending/shortening. If it does that use the end of the other trend line instead.

 

There's no rhyme or reason, sometimes the LTL does it, sometimes the RTL. And it's not the top or bottom one consistently. Couldn't nail down any consistent pattern. So if grabbing one line is a problem, use the other.

 

Hi Ezzy,

 

In order to lengthen a trend channel without changing the slope, ctrl-click on the first line you drew when annotating the channel, not the cloned line. If you click on the cloned line, you'll get the rotating effect. Usually the trend channel is created by first drawing an RTL, but keep in mind that when you draw a tape to a stitch or OB, the trend channel will be created by first drawing an LTL. This is probably why you didn't see a consistent pattern.

Edited by treeline
clarity

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Ezzy,

 

In order to lengthen a trend channel without changing the slope, ctrl-click on the first line you drew when annotating the channel, not the cloned line. If you click on the cloned line, you'll get the rotating effect. Usually the trend channel is created by first drawing an RTL, but keep in mind that when you draw a tape to a stitch or OB, the trend channel will be created by first drawing an LTL. This is probably why you didn't see a consistent pattern.

 

That could be it. I usually use the Channel tool for the real small tapes, stitches or taping to OB. That would flip flop the control line.

 

Thanks - EZ

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Monday 3-15 with Friday's chart re-worked.

 

Hi Ezzy and everyone who is interested in PV relationship,

 

Please see the attachment. I have 2 questions regarding the ES chart---

 

1) If the sequence of Blue container stops on 10:50 (close of) bar, how could the X be the point 1 of Pink Container?

 

2) Assumed both Blue and Pink containers are correctly annotated, how could Y (inside Blue container ) be the pt 2 in geometrical sense and Z be the real pt 2 of Pink container? TIA

5aa70fe880374_PinkandBluecontainers.gif.52472077e0d44696001fff3ae740b097.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Monday 3-15 with Friday's chart re-worked.

 

See corrected chart, reworked area 15:30 Friday to 9:55 today.

 

2) Assumed both Blue and Pink containers are correctly annotated,

 

Assume nothing. I had just finished revising this, what timing. :D

5aa70fe88fc22_2010-03-15ES.thumb.png.00102829c9b8c595c6725b759d34028c.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • also ... and barely on topic... Winners (always*) overpay. Buying the dips is a subscription to the belief that winners win by underpaying - when in actuality winners (inevitably/always*) win by overpaying... it’s amazing the percentage of traders who think winners win by underpaying ... “Winners (always*) overpay.” ...  One way to implement this ‘belief’ is to only reenter when prices have emphatically resumed the 'trend' .   (Fwiw, While “Winners (always*) overpay.” holds true in most endeavors (relationships, business, sports, etc...) - “Winners (always*) overpay.”  is especially true for auctions... continuous auctions included.)
    • re:  "Does it make sense to always buy the dips?  “Buy the dip.”  You hear this all the time in crypto investing trading speculation gambling. [zdo taking some liberties] It refers, of course, to buying more bitcoin (or digital assets) when they go down in price: when the price “dips.” Some people brag about “buying the dip," showing they know better than the crowd. Others “buy the dip” as an investment strategy: they’re getting a bargain. The problem is, buying the dip is a fallacy. You can’t buy the dip, because you can't see the total dip until much later. First, I’ll explain this in a way that will make it simple and obvious to you; then I’ll show you a better way of investing. You Only Know the Dip in Hindsight When people talk about “buying the dip,” what they’re really saying is, “I bought when the price was going down.” " ... example of a dip ... 
    • Date: 19th April 2024. Weekly Commodity Market Update: Oil Prices Correct and Supply Concerns Persist.   The ongoing developments in the Middle East sparked a wave of risk aversion and fueled supply concerns and investors headed for safety. Hopes for imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve diminish while attention is now turning towards the demand outlook. The Gold price hit a high of $2417.89 per ounce overnight. Sentiment has already calmed down again and bullion is trading at $2376.50 per ounce as haven flows ease. Oil prices initially moved higher as concern over escalating tensions with the WTI contract hit a session high of $85.508 per barrel overnight, before correcting to currently $81.45 per barrel. Oil Prices Under Pressure Amid Middle East Tensions Last week, commodity indexes showed little movement, with Oil prices undergoing a slight correction. Meanwhile, Gold reached yet another record high, mirroring the upward trend in cocoa prices. Once again today, USOil prices experienced a correction and has remained under pressure, retesting the 50-day EMA at $81.00 as we moving into the weekend. Hence, despite the Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran, sentiments stabilized following reports suggesting a measured response aimed at avoiding further escalation. Brent crude futures witnessed a more than 4% leap, driven by concerns over potential disruptions to oil supplies in the Middle East, only to subsequently erase all gains. Similarly with USOIL, UKOIL hovers just below $87 per barrel, marginally below Thursday’s closing figures. Nevertheless, volatility is expected to continue in the market as several potential risks loom:   Disruption to the Strait of Hormuz: The possibility of Iran disrupting navigation through the vital shipping lane, is still in play. The Strait of Hormuz serves as the Persian Gulf’s primary route to international waters, with approximately 21 million barrels of oil passing through daily. Recent events, including Iran’s seizure of an Israel-linked container ship, underscore the geopolitical sensitivity of the region. Tougher Sanctions on Iran: Analysts speculate that the US may impose stricter sanctions on Iranian oil exports or intensify enforcement of existing restrictions. With global oil consumption reaching 102 million barrels per day, Iran’s production of 3.3 million barrels remains significant. Recent actions targeting Venezuelan oil highlight the potential for increased pressure on Iranian exports. OPEC Output Increases: Despite the desire for higher prices, OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have constrained output in recent years. However, sustained crude prices above $100 per barrel could prompt concerns about demand and incentivize increased production. The OPEC may opt to boost oil output should tensions escalate further and prices surge. Ukraine Conflict: Amidst the focus on the Middle East, markets overlooking Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Potential retaliatory strikes by Kyiv on Russian oil infrastructure could impact exports, adding further complexity to global oil markets.   Technical Analysis USOIL is marking one of the steepest weekly declines witnessed this year after a brief period of consolidation. The breach below the pivotal support level of 84.00, coupled with the descent below the mid of the 4-month upchannel, signals a possible shift in market sentiment towards a bearish trend reversal. Adding to the bearish outlook are indications such as the downward slope in the RSI. However, the asset still hold above the 50-day EMA which coincides also with the mid of last year’s downleg, with key support zone at $80.00-$81.00. If it breaks this support zone, the focus may shift towards the 200-day EMA and 38.2% Fib. level at $77.60-$79.00. Conversely, a rejection of the $81 level and an upside potential could see the price returning back to $84.00. A break of the latter could trigger the attention back to the December’s resistance, situated around $86.60. A breakthrough above this level could ignite a stronger rally towards the $89.20-$90.00 zone. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past perfrmance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 18th April 2024. Market News – Stock markets benefit from Dollar correction. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Technical buying, bargain hunting, and risk aversion helped Treasuries rally and unwind recent losses. Yields dropped from the recent 2024 highs. Asian stock markets strengthened, as the US Dollar corrected in the wake of comments from Japan’s currency chief Masato Kanda, who said G7 countries continue to stress that excessive swings and disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were harmful for economies. US Stockpiles expanded to 10-month high. The data overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented recent attack. President Joe Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum.   Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex stumbled, falling to 105.66 at the end of the day from the intraday high of 106.48. It lost ground against most of its G10 peers. There wasn’t much on the calendar to provide new direction. USDJPY lows retesting the 154 bottom! NOT an intervention yet. BoJ/MoF USDJPY intervention happens when there is more than 100+ pip move in seconds, not 50 pips. USOIL slumped by 3% near $82, as US crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels last week, hitting the highest level since last June, while gauges of fuel demand declined. Gold strengthened as the dollar weakened and bullion is trading at $2378.44 per ounce. Market Trends:   Wall Street closed in the red after opening with small corrective gains. The NASDAQ underperformed, slumping -1.15%, with the S&P500 -0.58% lower, while the Dow lost -0.12. The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng gained more than 1. European and US futures are finding buyers. A gauge of global chip stocks and AI bellwether Nvidia Corp. have both fallen into a technical correction. The TMSC reported its first profit rise in a year, after strong AI demand revived growth at the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. The main chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. recorded a 9% rise in net income, beating estimates. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.