Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Would you be so kind as to explain how?
I try to build all observable sequences (x2x2y2x) based primarily on volume (not on price), looking for peaks and valleys of the same fractal to be alike in pace.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I try to build all observable sequences (x2x2y2x) based primarily on volume (not on price), looking for peaks and valleys of the same fractal to be alike in pace.

Thank you for your explanation. My only concern is that pace doesn't seem to be very "binary".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thank you for your explanation. My only concern is that pace doesn't seem to be very "binary".
Pace is not binary, is affected by the usual distribution during the day and by important news releases. This is why I look for "alike" pace levels. Edited by cnms2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NSW:

This is the moving container, that bounds pt 1, pt 2, and pt 3.

 

I think this is very much related to Order of Events (where you are in each Container, eg pt 1 moving to pt 2, etc) / sequence completion, and what that implies for future movement.

 

What rs5 is referring to is frequently when you have a VE, it means you can expect to have what I label as a pt 4 and pt 5 on that same container. Your container will accelerate (steepen) or decelerate ("fan") -- but continue going. The old pt 3 becomes the new pt 1. The pt 4 is the pt 2 of the new NSW. At that point you are trying to form a pt 5 (which is just the pt 3 of the new NSW).

 

I'm not sure in which cases a VE leads to the NSW moving, but it is frequent enough it is one of the first things I try to look for. These situations often lead me to mistakenly jumping fractals though.

 

On a related note, sometimes a container will fan (or even steepen?), and then turn into the next larger container. A Tape can turn into a Traverse for example. I haven't yet differentiated how to tell when this will happen, versus when the NSW enlarges without turning into the next largest container.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
.... some clear explanation.

IMO the clear explanation doesn't seem to belong to the realm of possibility.

 

In mathematics where the truth is tautologically limited to the domains within which from the man-made sets of axioms and definitions it follows: "IF numbers are appropriately defined and IF the operation of addition is appropriately defined; then 2+2=4."

 

I believe that at this point the operations of drawing the trendlines and what the containers bound by those trendlines must contain in terms of volume in order to draw a gaussian line, have been explained unambiguously and on more then multiple occasions. I think it is safe to refer to them as being appropriately defined. Now, in the example posted by me earlier that Spydertrader was so kind to comment on, two objects constructed in the same manner using the 'appropriately' defined rule set for drawing trendlines and gaussians represent two different things. 2+2=4 in one case and 2+2=5 in another. Because of the context. It logically follows that the context must be included in the set of axioms and definitions one needs to view the market correctly in order to arrive at accurate annotations, and in order for the 2+2=4 to be true for all cases.

 

The problem with 'context', beside being an imperfectly defined explanatory notion commonly used to make a sort of conceptual fog, is that as a concept it is in fact a meta-concept in relationship to other concepts one tries to deal with. Just like a meaning of the word would change depending on the context provided by a specific sentence which contains that word. However the axiomatic rule set for building the sentences (syntax, grammar, etc.) is different from the rule set for building the words (phonetics, etc.). One is meta-concept (syntax, grammar, etc.) in relationship to the other (phonetics, etc.). And one can't use phonetics to explain grammar, because it would violate the logical levels and result in 'shoddy epistemology'.

 

What would one use then to explain the context? Certainly not the context itself.:rofl:

 

Logical fallacies are generally easy to spot, the paradoxes however somewhat more difficult. One of the examples is the Grelling-Nelson paradox. It is possible to divide words into two major categories depending on whether or not they describe the category into which they belong. Those that meet this condition are be called "autologic," and those where this is not the case, "heterologic". The paradox is how to classify the word "heterologic." If it were autologic, it would be heterologic, and vice versa, if it were heterologic, it would be autologic.

 

I realize that this is neither helpful, nor encouraging, and I apologize for it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Those of you making a living from these methods - any thoughts on how you will modify your methods if any of the ironically named FTTs (financial transaction tax) become law?

 

I have spent countless hours over the last 2 months contacting various members of The United States House of Representatives, The United States Senate, The President of The United States and various other government officals in an effert to educate people on the pure ridiculousness of such a law being passed. Many other individuals (from all walks of life, and throughout the entire trading industry) have also spent significant time doing the very same (and even more). An entire thread on the subject (and recommendations for individual action) exists over at the Elitetrader.com web site.

 

Bottom Line: This insane idea doesn't pass. However, should The U.S. Government choose to commit financial suicide by forcing into law any sort of 'Robin Hood' Tax, rest assurd, a market will exist in some country (with sane leadership) who has chosen not to err on the side of lunacy.

 

I (along with a host of others) will simply trade that market.

 

Any market. Any timeframe - provided sufficient liquidity exists (and liquidity will never be a problem for any market which does not institute a 'Robin Hood' tax).

 

- Spydertrader

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Perhaps the confusing talk is intentional....

 

Right ......

 

I'm not entirely clear on what compels you to post in a thread where you have repeatedly indicated little value exists.

 

However, allow me to (once again) make things very easy for you (and any other human on the planet who happens to read something I have written).

 

If you believe my posts contain nothing worthwhile, if you believe that I cannot trade profitably, if you believe that I strive to post 'riddles' in a vane attempt to gather 'followers' as I strive for some mythical title of 'Interent Trading Guru, if you believe I am full of shit; then simply, stop reading my posts.

 

Easy as that. No argument. No Debate.

 

- Spydertrader

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I try to build all observable sequences (x2x2y2x) based primarily on volume (not on price), looking for peaks and valleys of the same fractal to be alike in pace.

 

This may be difficult but could you elaborate a bit more, especially on the pace. Larger pace changes make things more obvious. But during low volume when there are several fractal levels down, it seems it would be difficult if only using volume. So I would imagine there are a few not so obvious volume observations that you are using?

 

Think Spyder said once he would take pace lines off his chart if he could. Obviously he can, but "probably" meant they aren't necessary.

 

So the lines being a crutch to the rest of us, there has to be certain characteristics independent of the lines/pace levels that are clues (volume inc/dec and accel/decel vs. pace line level jumps).

 

Trying to look deeper here to see what you're seeing and find what other information might be being overlooked.

 

Regards,

 

EZ

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
However, should The U.S. Government choose to commit financial suicide by forcing into law any sort of 'Robin Hood' Tax, rest assurd, a market will exist in some country (with sane leadership) who has chosen not to err on the side of lunacy.

 

We agree.

 

There is also the concept of jumping through whatever hoops one must jump through to be exempt - like creating a mutual fund. But even that is a non-starter if the volume disappears.

 

<<back to your regularly scheduled programming>>

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This may be difficult but could you elaborate a bit more, especially on the pace. ...
I was simply saying that I use:

- the relative amplitude of the volume peaks to differentiate among nested fractals

- and their absolute value to identify fractals' hierarchy.

 

As I mentioned in the past, I find useful to practice annotating volume without looking at price.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
IMO the clear explanation doesn't seem to belong to the realm of possibility. ...
To me the "context" is something on these lines (as per Jack):

1. Where is the market in the cycle (pattern)?

2. What is next in the pattern? and

3. How fast is the pattern changing?

applied to the three fractals: my trading fractal, one above, and one bellow.

 

As an example, getting back to your recent post regarding two apparently similar chart snippets, to compare their contexts I would try to identify the answers to the above three questions for the three fractals. I would look at V and P, both independently and interdependently.

 

A quick glance at the charts you posted seem to show that one is an up retrace in a down trend, versus an up dominant of a faster fractal. I notice the difference in pace too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you all for your input :)

 

I'm not sure in which cases a VE leads to the NSW moving

 

I watch the VE bar's movement. If close is in the gap (between old LTL and new LTL) and we appear to be close to end of a sequence then it tells me that something is not complete and NSW is moving.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
To me the "context" is something on these lines (as per Jack):

1. Where is the market in the cycle (pattern)?

2. What is next in the pattern? and

3. How fast is the pattern changing?

applied to the three fractals: my trading fractal, one above, and one bellow.

 

As an example, getting back to your recent post regarding two apparently similar chart snippets, to compare their contexts I would try to identify the answers to the above three questions for the three fractals. I would look at V and P, both independently and interdependently.

Thank you for your post. I truly appreciate your insight. However, it seems to me that your line of reasoning here is somewhat circular, much like the Cartesian circle. In other words the missing variable can not be substituted by manipulating the same data set multiplied by unknown factor for what you refer to as 'one above, and one bellow of one's trading fractal'. Today, between 1240 and end of day there were 15 volume troughs, but only a few of them proved to be valid for terminating one set of gaussians and starting a new one. At least four b2b2r's with ensuing tape breaks were built during the same period. But, the market has provided something different.

 

 

 

 

A quick glance at the charts you posted seem to show that one is an up retrace in a down trend, versus an up dominant of a faster fractal. I notice the difference in pace too.

I believe both sequences represent retrace in the down trend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Something that has been very helpful to me is to 'differentiate' volume into 'velocity' and ''pace'.

 

Velocity = price * distance.

Pace (or tempo) = price * time.

 

In many discussions such as the Jokari Window discussion that describes Prive and Volume there is no room for the importance of pace.

 

At 'end points' either the LTL (Left Trend Line) or RTL (Right Trend Line) I want to see both Velocity and Pace slow or stop and then an increase in both Velocity and Pace before I can tell what the market is going to do.

 

As Velocity and Pace approach zero your odds decrease to 50:50. Then the market will telegraphy a 'continuation' or 'change' message by increasing both velocity and pace at the same time.

 

Low Pace/Low Velocity = undecided market and high risk.

 

Low Pace/High Velocity = Bulls are Bears are standing aside and price is moving to S/R where it will be stopped. Might be a trade depending on how far away S/R (probably LTR or RTR) from your possible entry it is. Best to leave it alone and trade at the RTR.

 

High Pace/Low Velocity = bulls and bears are fighting so stay away until the battle is decided one way or the other. Extremely high risk.

 

High Pace/High Velocity = market has selected direction and losers are trapped and covering their position, new players entering quickly. Depending on container completion and context a possible trade.

 

Volume by itself is not very helpful (IMHO) without knowing what effect the volume of contracts has on pace (or tempo).

 

Use ProRata volume to help identify pace. Avoid trades where pace is less than X number of contracts per minute, or less than a moving average of volume.

 

When the market slows to a halt and pace and velocity both seem to slow to a stop: get ready.

 

In a thread discussing "Price Volume Relationship" I thought adding pace/tempo would be helpful. Just some thoughts on a lazy Saturday morning.

 

Good trading! Enjoy the weekend as next week is going to be amazing.

 

ramora

Edited by ramora

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Hi ramora,

 

1) As Velocity and Pace approach zero your odds decrease to 50:50.

---In order to make sure that I comprehended the above statement from you, may I translate your sentence to ->

 

As volume of barX approaches Dry up and Pro-Rata of barX is not growing, your odds decrease to 50:50.

 

2) Might be a trade depending on how far away S/R (probably LTR or RTR) from your possible entry it is. Best to leave it alone and trade at the RTR.

---What do LTR and RTR stand for respectively?

 

3) Use ProRata volume to help identify pace.....

3a) Avoid trades where pace is less than X number of contracts per minute,

--- How do you decide the pace figure for the X number of contracts per minute?

3b) or less than a moving average of volume.

--- Do you use 20SMA (5Minutes per period) for volume?

 

 

4) as next week is going to be amazing.

 

Is this related to S&P500 and MACD; or, Greek Debt Drama?

 

TIA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Hi ramora,

 

1)As volume of barX approaches Dry up and Pro-Rata of barX is not growing, your odds decrease to 50:50.

 

2) ---What do LTR and RTR stand for respectively?

 

3) How do you decide the pace figure for the X number of contracts per minute?

4) as next week is going to be amazing.

 

TIA

1. Yes, that would be correct.

2. Very sorry, should be Left Trend Line and Right Trend Line. I will be more careful.

3. Watch time and sales. If you time the number of contracts over 30 seconds you can get a sense of the tempo. I also plot a 9 bar EMA of volume so that I can see is volume is increasing or decreasing.

4. Looking at the major indexes we are at a turning point. I have no idea if the major indexes will break upward or down but the opportunity for short term trading will be excellent.

 

Good Trading.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Something that has been very helpful to me is to 'differentiate' volume into 'velocity' and ''pace'.

 

Velocity = price * distance.

Pace (or tempo) = price * time.

 

ramora

Tams suggests that Pace/tempo should be "number of contracts traded * time" instead of "price * time".

 

He is correct.

 

Thank you Tams!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Hi ramora

 

If you don't mind, i have two more questions for you in the peaceful and joyful Sunday morning.

 

1) I want to see Time&Sales happy ticking off trades with sizes > 2,

 

---I assumed "sizes" means "volume". Based on that assumption, there are two scenarios presented (please see the attachment):

a) You entered a "short" trade ->the trade got filled and you saw "2" in the T&S window -> you exited because volume isn't > 2.

 

b) You entered a "short" trade -> the trade got filled and you saw "3" in the T&S window -> you stayed in the trade and you saw 10 ->double "1s" shown after 10 ->Did you get out or stay? I don't think my little brain will catch up with the lighting speed alike volume changing in the T&S window.

 

2) Depth Of Market with pending orders above and below the last trade,

---There are ALWAYS 5 levels of pending orders above and below each trade. I'm not sure what you meant by that. Could you elaborate your points? TIA

5aa70fd6ab3f1_TimeSalessizes.thumb.gif.3ce55cfad6ca50290de209094ae1c586.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Velocity = price * distance.

Pace (or tempo) = price * time.

ramora

 

Those definitions look very odd. I would expect:

 

velocity = price change / time

 

pace = no. of contracts traded / time

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 29th March 2024. GBPUSD Analysis: The Pound Trades Higher But For How Long? The global Stocks Markets are closed due to Easter Friday (Good Friday). The NASDAQ continued to follow the sideways trend while other indices again rose. The SNP500 reaches an all-time high, but the NASDAQ remains under pressure from Tesla, Meta and Apple. The Euro continues to trade lower against all major currencies including the US Dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen. The British Pound is the best performing currency during this morning’s Asian session. However, investors are largely fixing their attention on this afternoon’s Core PCE Price Index. GBPUSD – The Pound Trades Higher but For How Long? The GBPUSD is slightly higher than the day’s open and is primary due to the Pound’s strong performance. At the moment, the British Pound is increasing in value against all major currencies. However, the US Dollar Index is also trading 0.10% higher and for this reason there is a slight conflict here. If investors wish to avoid this conflict, the EURUSD is a better option. This is because, the Euro depreciating against the whole currency market avoiding the “tug-of-war” scenario. The GBPUSD is trading slightly lower than the 2-month’s average price and is trading at 49.10 on the RSI. For this reason, the price of the exchange is at a “neutral” level and is signalling neither a buy nor a sell. The day’s price action and future signals are possibly likely to be triggered by this afternoon’s Core PCE Price Index. Analysts expect the Core PCE Price Index to read 0.3% which is slightly lower than the previous month but will result in the annual figure remaining at 2.85%. The PCE rate is different to the inflation rate and the Fed aims for a rate between 1.5% to 2.00%. Therefore, even if the annual rate remains at 2.85%, as analysts expect, it would be too high for the Fed. If the rate increases, even if only slightly, the US Dollar can again renew bullish momentum and the stock market can come under pressure. This includes the SNP500. Investors are focused on the publication of data on the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the last quarter of 2023: the quarterly figures decreased by 0.3%, and 0.2% over the past 12-months. This confirms the state of a shallow recession and the need for stimulation. The data, combined with a cooling labor market and a steady decline in inflation, increase the likelihood that the Bank of England will soon begin interest rate cuts. In the latest meeting the Bank of England representatives did not see any members vote for a hike. USA500 – The SNP500 Rises to New Highs, But Cannot Hold Onto Gains! The price of the SNP500 rises to an all-time high, before correcting 0.33% and ending the day slightly lower than the open price. Nonetheless, the index performs better than the NASDAQ which came under pressure from Tesla, Meta and Apple which hold a higher weight compared to the SNP500. For the SNP500, these 3 stocks hold a weight of 9.25%, whereas the 3 stocks make up 14.63% of the NASDAQ. The SNP500 is also supported by ExxonMobil’s gains due to higher energy prices. The market will remain closed on Friday due to Easter. However, the market will reopen on Monday for the US and investors can expect high volatility. Investors will also need to take into consideration how the PCE Price Index and the changed value of the US Dollar is likely to affect the stock market next week. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • MT4 is good and will be good until their parent company keep updating the software, later mt4 users will have to switch to mt5.
    • $SOUN SoundHound AI stock at 5.91 support area , see https://stockconsultant.com/?SOUN
    • $ELEV Elevation Oncology stock bull flag breakout watch , see https://stockconsultant.com/?ELEV
    • $AVDX AvidXchange stock narrow range breakout watch above 13.32 , see https://stockconsultant.com/?AVDX
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.