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Unfortunately that post did not help me in any way because I have yet to understand what it is you are alluding to with respect to differentiating laterals. It now seems that the boundary of a lateral is defined by a bar within the lateral and something is implied by whether or not it has incr or decr volume.

This could take forever..............

 

 

if you start taking note of the permutations,

it is never too late...

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how can they both be correct?

 

Please review the post to which you refer - especially the quoted portions of the previous posters. You should note, one individual's (Ezzy) quote refers to a sequence of events. I indicated a correct set of annotations with a response to direction only.The second individual (TIKI) referred to how an Outside Bar formed (Price making a higher high [over the previous bar] prior to closing below the bar's open). I indicated he had posted a correct analysis with respect to the Outside bar only.

 

- Spydertrader

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FilterTip and dmk,

 

Please compare Tiki's yesterday's lateral post with today's 11:10am lateral. Today lateral boundary was created by 11:20 and 11:25 bars. Did you see the same in Tiki's post?

The differences between the two are the way the first bar was formed and the direction the price exited. I hope this help.

 

Thx for the reply.

Yes I "see the same on TIKI's post".

 

I've attached the two charts your mention for reference.

(so we're all on the same page)

 

My understanding of what you are saying is :

 

1. Your chart shows a lateral, the first bar of which is on increasing volume.

2. TIKI's chart shows a lateral (the second red shaded lateral), the first bar of which is on decreasing volume.

3. Both are in the Dominant direction (on the basis that they both occur post b2b).

4. Both have bars within the lateral that touch (create, with") the "upper" boundary of the lateral.

5. Your lateral exits in the dominant direction (up)

6. TIKI's exits in the opposite direction (down)

 

Can we conclude there for the following differentiations:

1. A dominant lateral who's first bar is on decreasing volume that "creates, with" the upper boundary will exit in the opposite direction from which it entered?

 

2. A dominant lateral who's first bar is on increasing volume that "creates, with" the upper boundary will exit in the same direction from which it entered?

 

The above is specific to these "things" that have happened.

Thus they are dependent on

a. Lateral being dominant or non-dominant.

b. First bar of lateral having increasing or decreasing volume.

c. Whether it is the upper or lower boundary that has been "created, with".

 

 

I shall obviously have to look through 27 years worth of charts to "compare and contrast"

so any thoughts on the above and any assistance on "comparing and contrasting" are appreciated.

 

??

 

Many thx

5aa70fb60cd24_sambrown1-26-2010_lateral.png.3c6182a96b4161f9f970e57c8f1a2b87.png

5aa70fb611e56_TickiFULLCYCLE.jpg.2d2b4c90a59da82b8667e345c4de622a.jpg

Edited by FilterTip

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I believe you are absolutely correct. The quoted definitions presuppose that an observer is able to define what "fractal" IS in some way that is consistent across all contexts.

 

I haven't presupposed anything.

 

Of the three 'things' which dictate what annotations belong on a chart (context, order of events and [differentiation of the actual] objects), I simply started with the easiest of the three.

 

In addition, knowing how Price must exit a specific lateral type provides opportunity for people to earn real money every time they see a certain 'thing' appear on a chart.

 

Lastly, Within the last two days, I've provided several examples of how one applies the scientific method for moving forward in an effort to show people what they must do in order to untangle that which they find confusing.

 

Unfortunately, very few have seen as beneficial that which has been posted over the last 2 days.

 

- Spydertrader

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I haven't presupposed anything.

 

You are correct, the presupposition was created by me in the process of attempting to understand the intended meaning.

 

 

Of the three 'things' which dictate what annotations belong on a chart (context, order of events and [differentiation of the actual] objects), I simply started with the easiest of the three.

 

I don't disagree with the approach. Personally, I keep running into the same problem, the missed component of monitoring, that prevents me from knowing what comes next, - and my attempted humor in the quoted post was meant as " a reference only" to my personal state of being "stuck" in the particular place of my inquiry.

 

 

Unfortunately, very few have seen as beneficial that which has been posted over the last 2 days.

 

I have been fortunate to be reminded by you on numerous occasions that certain things repeatedly exist on charts irrespective of the observer's ability or inability to notice them. Keep in mind, it took me quite some time to tell the difference between those containers that have overlapping point's two and those that don't.:rofl:

 

So, the group of "very few", that you are referring to, includes at least one more member for sure (+1), that is myself.

 

 

P.S. Trying to define those "things", that one sees, in terms that don't allow for contradiction is a very hard and demanding task. And it may be appreciated by more people than you think.

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Can we conclude there for the following differentiations:

1. A dominant lateral who's first bar is on decreasing volume that "creates, with" the upper boundary will exit in the opposite direction from which it entered?

 

2. A dominant lateral who's first bar is on increasing volume that "creates, with" the upper boundary will exit in the same direction from which it entered?

 

I have not gotten to a point of making these conclusions yet.

I am following Spyder's advise on analyzing the context and order of events.

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I shall obviously have to look through 27 years worth of charts to "compare and contrast"

so any thoughts on the above and any assistance on "comparing and contrasting" are appreciated.

 

Step by step, follow these directions ...

 

Rather than saying, "the market tests the Lateral Boundary created at Bar 1," subsitute the words, "the market creates the Lateral Boundary with Bar 1." Now, run this test across both examples under discussion (as well as other examples from The Lateral Formation Drill (and follow up). Does each example conform do this definition?

 

Run the test on TIKI's chart. One Lateral meets the definition. One does not. (For now - and throughout this discussion for 5 weeks now) we only care about Laterals which meet the definition.

 

Using the above (re-worded) defintion, everyone should be able to create (in their mind's eye and on paper) three possible examples of a Lateral which conforms to the examples provided in The Lateral Formation Drill (and follow up), but also represent entirely different things from each other.

 

In other words, Three possible ways exist for this one type of Lateral (begins with a Sym pennant, and some bar in the future creates a boundary with Bar 1 of the Sym). What are those three ways? Two of those ways exist within the Lateral Formation Drill itself.

 

Good. Now, set aside Volume (for just a moment) and determine if all of the examples under discussion form in the exact same (as our reworded definition) way. Those that do not form in such a fashion fall into a different pile.

 

In other words, we have defined something based on price, and we will use (later) Volume to note the differences amongst the various examples of things within this specific pile of Laterals (as defined above). However, before one can move to seeing subtle differences (step two), a trader must first complete step one - locate three ways the object definied above can form - without looking at Volume (yet).

 

- Spydertrader

Edited by Spydertrader
fixed quotation formatting

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Please review the post to which you refer - especially the quoted portions of the previous posters. You should note, one individual's (Ezzy) quote refers to a sequence of events. I indicated a correct set of annotations with a response to direction only.The second individual (TIKI) referred to how an Outside Bar formed (Price making a higher high [over the previous bar] prior to closing below the bar's open). I indicated he had posted a correct analysis with respect to the Outside bar only.

 

- Spydertrader

Thx for the reply.

 

If you're able to correctly reference posts together, well then so should I.

Although I'm reminded of that wonderful quote from the film Blow,

"my ambition has always far exceeded my talent" :)

 

To clarify (for me) TIKI got a "chicken dinner" because he correctly described the OB.

Not because his gaussians are correct?

 

I do see Ezzy and your posts referencing why there was no increasing black volume following (confirming) P3.

 

And in view of sambrown post 1272,

 

Ezzy's lateral would be one that we knew would exit opposite from the direction from which it entered (entered going up, exit going down)

because it was a dominant lateral, the first bar of the lateral being on decreasing volume,

and having "created with" the upper boundary of the lateral?

 

(Ezzy lateral attached for reference)

 

Spyder. thanks for your continued efforts.

I applaud you.

I want to understand this.

For that end, I will there for need to ask about everything that you have and hopefully will continue to try to explain, that I do not understand, until I do understand.

 

Kind Regards as always.

5aa70fb615d38_EzzyB2B01-25-2010.png.16eb1c15d04d9a951fbdf418a20ec9b2.png

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Step by step, follow these directions ...

 

Run the test on TIKI's chart. One Lateral meets the definition. One does not. (For now - and throughout this discussion for 5 weeks now) we only care about Laterals which meet the definition.

 

So TIKI's first lateral (grey shaded) does not conform because the boundaries of the lateral are not "created, with".

TIKI's 2nd lateral (red shaded) does conform because it has bars that "create, with" the boundaries of the lateral.

??

 

 

In other words, Three possible ways exist for this one type of Lateral (begins with a Sym pennant, and some bar in the future creates a boundary with Bar 1 of the Sym). What are those three ways? Two of those ways exist within the Lateral Formation Drill itself.

 

"What are those 3 ways"?

 

that the boundaries of a lateral have bars that "create with"

1. the upper boundary.?

[EDIT] 1a. or more correctly, a boundary in the dominant direction (dominant boundary)?

2. the lower boundary?

[EDIT] 2a. a boundary in the non dominant direction (non-dom boundary)?

3. both the upper and lower boundaries?

 

In other words, we have defined something based on price, and we will use (later) Volume to note the differences amongst the various examples of things within this specific pile of Laterals (as defined above). However, before one can move to seeing subtle differences (step two), a trader must first complete step one - locate three ways the object definied above can form - without looking at Volume (yet).

 

- Spydertrader

 

Yes understood. I made my post# 1283 prior to seeing this post of yours, so I was still referencing volume in my post# 1283.

 

Thx

Edited by FilterTip

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To clarify (for me) TIKI got a "chicken dinner" because he correctly described the OB. Not because his gaussians are correct?

 

I never looked at the Gaussians supplied by TIKI. As such, I cannot speak to their accuracy. However, my comments about said "Chicken Dinner" did pertain exclusively to the correct analysis of the Outside Bar provided by TIKI.

 

Ezzy's lateral would be one that we knew would exit opposite from the direction from which it entered (entered going up, exit going down)

because it was a dominant lateral, the first bar of the lateral being on decreasing volume,

and having "created with" the upper boundary of the lateral?

 

The Lateral to which you refer did form in the dominant direction (Bar 1 of the Sym), it did form on decreasing Volume (again, bar 1 of the Sym and the black bar which formed an equal high with the Sym Bar 1 ) and it did form by a third bar creating an 'upper boundary' with Bar 1 of the Sym. However, these are not the only things known at the time. With respect to Order of Events you had a completed sequence (across a non-dominant segment of a larger trend). Context also played a role (although not important in this specific example. As a result of these three things, Price had to exit through the lower part of the specific lateral in question.

 

The day's second example (beginning at 12:50) formed in the same fashion (with subtle Volume differences), but the Order of Events was different (again context played next to no role in this specific example as well). As such, the outcome was different.

 

HTH.

 

- Spydertrader

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"What are those 3 ways"?

 

that the boundaries of a lateral have bars that "create with"

1. the upper boundary.?

2. the lower boundary?

3. both the upper and lower boundaries?

 

 

One may find the words "upper" and "lower" slightly misleading. I would opt out for something more directionally neutral, such as "same" or an "opposite" as compared to the direction of the first bar.

 

[edit] P.S. This is obviously redundant since you had the same concern and reposted with edits.

5aa70fb67b78b_threeways.jpg.ff537557186ef31d9acad398b4a7d43b.jpg

Edited by romanus

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So TIKI's first lateral (grey shaded) does not conform because the boundaries of the lateral are not "created, with".

TIKI's 2nd lateral (red shaded) does conform because it has bars that "create, with" the boundaries of the lateral??

 

Correct. However, try saying it this way ...

 

"TIKI's second example does comply because it has a bar which creates a Lateral boundary with Bar 1 of the Sym."

 

Perhaps, you'll find the above verbage easier to 'see' in your minds eye (and on a chart).

 

"What are those 3 ways"?

 

that the boundaries of a lateral have bars that "create with"

1. the upper boundary.?

[EDIT] 1a. or more correctly, a boundary in the dominant direction (dominant boundary)?

2. the lower boundary?

[EDIT] 2a. a boundary in the non dominant direction (non-dom boundary)?

3. both the upper and lower boundaries?

 

Great. Dominant Boundary, Non-Dominant Boundary and Both Dominant and Non-Dominant Boundaries.

 

Easy as that.

 

- Spydertrader

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Romanus' examples

 

I encourage you to remove the arrows from your examples. We have not yet looked at the direction as part of the prcoess of similarities - direction of the Bar , however, may represent an important subtle difference.

 

- Spydertrader

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I never looked at the Gaussians supplied by TIKI. As such, I cannot speak to their accuracy. However, my comments about said "Chicken Dinner" did pertain exclusively to the correct analysis of the Outside Bar provided by TIKI.

 

 

 

The Lateral to which you refer did form in the dominant direction (Bar 1 of the Sym), it did form on decreasing Volume (again, bar 1 of the Sym and the black bar which formed an equal high with the Sym Bar 1 ) and it did form by a third bar creating an 'upper boundary' with Bar 1 of the Sym. However, these are not the only things known at the time. With respect to Order of Events you had a completed sequence (across a non-dominant segment of a larger trend). Context also played a role (although not important in this specific example. As a result of these three things, Price had to exit through the lower part of the specific lateral in question.

 

The day's second example (beginning at 12:50) formed in the same fashion (with subtle Volume differences), but the Order of Events was different (again context played next to no role in this specific example as well). As such, the outcome was different.

 

HTH.

 

- Spydertrader

 

Thx.

 

I still need clarification from your reply.

You refer to more than 3 reasons why we knew the Ezzy lateral (I wish this lateral would live up to it's name sake) would exit opposite from entry..?

 

1.

The Lateral to which you refer did form in the dominant direction.

 

2.

it did form on decreasing Volume

 

3.

and the black bar which formed an equal high with the Sym Bar 1 )

 

4.

and it did form by a third bar creating an 'upper boundary' with Bar 1 of the Sym.

 

5.

Order of Events you had a completed sequence (across a non-dominant segment of a larger trend).
.

No with standing that we did not see the sequence complete with increasing black volume after a P3.

 

??

 

Thx

 

EDIT

PS..I've just seen your post # 1287.

I don't want to confuse issues....as if....

should I/we ignore the 5 differences I listed above, in light of your reply in post 1287?

 

thx

Edited by FilterTip

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I encourage you to remove the arrows from your examples. We have not yet looked at the direction as part of the prcoess of similarities - direction of the Bar , however, may represent an important subtle difference.

 

- Spydertrader

If the Dom and Non-Dom boundaries are defined not based on the direction of the 1st bar of the lateral, but rather on the direction that the market provided dominance, how does one define the market dominance: would b2b/r2r prior to the formation of Bar 1 of the lateral be sufficient, or b2b2r/r2r2b would be necessary as in the lateral posted by Ezzy that you described as: "Bar 1 (9:45) of this specific example closed in the same direction that the market provided dominance (in this specific case - B2B) for this specific fractal. The market did so prior to the formation of Bar 1 of this specific lateral."

 

P.S. I am not being semantically sarcastic here, simply trying to ensure that i am looking at the same things that everybody else is looking at. E.g. when I am looking at the lateral boundaries in the attached, I 'd like to be able to determine which one is Dom and which one is Non-dom. ( I realize that the lateral in the attached is different from what we are discussing, and just using it as an example to illustrate my problems in comprehending the process of defining boundaries as Dom and Non-dom.)

5aa70fb68294a_boundaries4_6_2009(5Min).thumb.png.2ffadb73ea12fd4cd3f5176d14084e4a.png

Edited by romanus

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Correct. However, try saying it this way ...

 

"TIKI's second example does comply because it has a bar which creates a Lateral boundary with Bar 1 of the Sym."

 

Perhaps, you'll find the above verbage easier to 'see' in your minds eye (and on a chart).

 

 

 

Great. Dominant Boundary, Non-Dominant Boundary and Both Dominant and Non-Dominant Boundaries.

 

Easy as that.

 

- Spydertrader

 

Thx for the confirmation.

I don't want my post# 1289 to interfere with this.

Posts are arriving on the thread while I'm composing mine so sorry for the cross overs.

 

A further clarification if you would kindly oblige..

 

When you say comply ?

We are complying with the 3 laterals in the lateral drill?

and that these 3 "types" of lateral fit within one of two "plies" ?

 

Just trying to get some order in my brain to this..

 

Thx I will use the verbiage you recommend.

Thx

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Thx.

 

I still need clarification from your reply.

You refer to more than 3 reasons why we knew the Ezzy lateral (I wish this lateral would live up to it's name sake) would exit opposite from entry..?

 

Review my answer. My response to you should indicate the following ...

 

"While yes you did accurately assess the individual particulars of the area under discussion (decreasing volume, dominant direction, etc), you did not in your post (which listed three reasons for knowing the direction of Lateral exit), provide the additional (hence my use of "more than three [that you provided] reasons") pieces of information (context and order of events) one should know prior to reaching a conclusion about this specific event. In addition, you have not yet completed the process of understanding the simiarities of this specific type of lateral, nor have you fully reviewed the various subtle differences which would allow you to accurately see all the various information provided by the object itself. As I result, I recommend avoiding reaching any coclusions which take you outside the current area of discussion."

 

[end translation]

 

Step by step means finish one step before moving to another step.

 

- Spydertrader

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If the Dom and Non-Dom boundaries are defined not based on the direction of the 1st bar of the lateral

 

I did not say this.

 

You are one step beyond where you need to be at this particular point in time. Unless and until one finishes the similarities step, one cannot move to the subtle differences step. You have yet to indicate you have fully grasped step one (although it appears you are almost there).

 

As an analogy, when you reviewed the "Seven Cases" post (about how to draw tapes using adjacent bars), did you see direction on those bars? Or, were all those bars without opens and closes?

 

- Spydertrader

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Seven Examples (Final Step in Similarities Section).

 

See attached.

 

Which Laterals listed comply (meets with the test provided) with those examples which exist in The Lateral Formation Drill? Why or Why not?

 

- Spydertrader

5aa70fb68783d_sevenexamples.thumb.JPG.5b4ac7a53fe91813095223b92de99df7.JPG

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These highlighted laterals have similarities, although some that have similarities may be sub-grouped a little different. ( not sure if this really makes a difference )

 

as example . . . start with symp then continue for some time before touching lateral boundaries.

 

or start sym p then followed immediately by a bar touch of lateral boundaries

 

* also I have not noticed in drill an outside bar following the symp , and before a touch of the boundaries. Not sure of the importance of this yet if any ( #4)

5aa70fb69650a_lateralsimilarities1.jpg.132011affac487dbf70bda8635cb4cd3.jpg

Edited by TIKITRADER
clarify

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Review my answer. My response to you should indicate the following ...

 

"While yes you did accurately assess the individual particulars of the area under discussion (decreasing volume, dominant direction, etc), you did not in your post (which listed three reasons for knowing the direction of Lateral exit), provide the additional (hence my use of "more than three [that you provided] reasons") pieces of information (context and order of events) one should know prior to reaching a conclusion about this specific event. In addition, you have not yet completed the process of understanding the simiarities of this specific type of lateral, nor have you fully reviewed the various subtle differences which would allow you to accurately see all the various information provided by the object itself. As I result, I recommend avoiding reaching any coclusions which take you outside the current area of discussion."

 

[end translation]

 

Step by step means finish one step before moving to another step.

 

- Spydertrader

 

What...?

 

I need a coffee

 

Thx

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Seven Examples (Final Step in Similarities Section).

 

See attached.

 

Which Laterals listed comply (meets with the test provided) with those examples which exist in The Lateral Formation Drill? Why or Why not?

 

- Spydertrader

If the test that you are referring to is mentioned in post 1282 ("... this one type of Lateral (begins with a Sym pennant, and some bar in the future creates a boundary with Bar 1 of the Sym").

 

 

, then all examples, except for # 3 (which doesn't begin with a Sym pennant) meet the test.

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then all examples, except for # 3 (which doesn't begin with a Sym pennant) meet the test.

 

Incorrect. You see. You believed you had this down correctly, but not quite 100% accurate. Hopefully, it now makes sense why I didn't want you moving forward prior to completing this portion.

 

- Spydertrader

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Seven Examples (Final Step in Similarities Section).

 

See attached.

 

Which Laterals listed comply (meets with the test provided) with those examples which exist in The Lateral Formation Drill? Why or Why not?

 

- Spydertrader

 

Do Comply:

1.

Starts with Sym and because it has a bar which creates a Lateral boundary with Bar 1 of the Sym.

4.

Starts with Sym and because it has a bar which creates a lateral boundary with Bar 1 of the Sym.

6

Starts with Sym and because it has a bar which creates a lateral boundary with Bar 1 of the Sym.

7.

Starts with Sym and because it has a bar which creates a lateral boundary with Bar 1 of the Sym.

 

Do Not Comply:

2. A bar does not create a lateral boundary with Bar 1 of the Sym, prior to a bar that exceeds the lateral boundary

3. Lateral starts with a FBP.

5. A bar does not create a lateral boundary with Bar 1 of the Sym, prior to a bar that exceeds the lateral boundary

 

..

Edited by FilterTip

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    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
    • Date: 16th April 2024. Market News – Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows. Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected retail sales eliciting a broad sell off in the markets. Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a 50-50 chance. Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week’s declines amid the rise in yields. Investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation. There’s growing anxiety over earnings even after a big beat from Goldman Sachs. UK labor market data was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated – The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE. China grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon. Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook. Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Financial Markets Performance:   The US Dollar rallied to 106.19 after testing 106.25, gaining against JPY and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level. Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed. USOIL is flat at $85 per barrel. Market Trends:   Breaks of key technical levels exacerbated the sell off. Tech was the big loser with the NASDAQ plunging -1.79% to 15,885 while the S&P500 dropped -1.20% to 5061, with the Dow sliding -0.65% to 37,735. The S&P had the biggest 2-day sell off since March 2023. Nikkei and ASX lost -1.9% and -1.8% respectively, and the Hang Seng is down -2.1%. European bourses are down more than -1% and US futures are also in the red. CTA selling tsunami: “Just a few points lower CTAs will for the first time this year start selling in size, to add insult to injury, we are breaking major trend-lines in equities and the gamma stabilizer is totally gone.” Short term CTA threshold levels are kicking in big time according to GS. Medium term is 4873 (most important) while the long term level is at 4605. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 15th April 2024. Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict. However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict. New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70. The Yen dip against USD to 153.85. USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce. Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180. Market Trends:   Asian stock markets traded mixed, but European and US futures are slightly higher after a tough session on Friday and yields have picked up. Mainland China bourses outperformed overnight, after Beijing offered renewed regulatory support. The PBOC meanwhile left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged, while once again draining funds from the system. Nikkei slipped 1% to 39,114.19. On Friday, NASDAQ slumped -1.62% to 16,175, unwinding most of Thursday’s 1.68% jump to a new all-time high at 16,442. The S&P500 fell -1.46% and the Dow dropped 1.24%. Declines were broadbased with all 11 sectors of the S&P finishing in the red. JPMorgan Chase sank 6.5% despite reporting stronger profit in Q1. The nation’s largest bank gave a forecast for a key source of income this year that fell below Wall Street’s estimate, calling for only modest growth. Apple shipments drop by 10% in Q1. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • The morning of my last post I happened to glance over to the side and saw “...angst over the FOMC’s rate trajectory triggered a flight to safety, hence boosting the haven demand. “   http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/21621-hfmarkets-hfmcom-market-analysis-services/page/17/?tab=comments#comment-228522   I reacted, but didn’t take time to  respond then... will now --- HFBlogNews, I don’t know if you are simply aggregating the chosen narratives for the day or if it’s your own reporting... either way - “flight to safety”????  haven ?????  Re: “safety  - ”Those ‘solid rocks’ are getting so fragile a hit from a dandelion blowball might shatter them... like now nobody wants to buy longer term new issues at these rates...yet the financial media still follows the scripts... The imagery they pound day in and day out makes it look like the Fed knows what they’re doing to help ‘us’... They do know what they’re doing - but it certainly is not to help ‘us’... and it is not to ‘control’ inflation... And at some point in the not too distant future, the interest due will eat a huge portion of the ‘revenue’ Re: “haven” The defaults are coming ...  The US will not be the first to default... but it will certainly not be the very last to default !! ...Enough casual anti-white racism for the day  ... just sayin’
    • Date: 12th April 2024. Producer Inflation On The Rise, But Will Earnings Hold Demand Steady?     Producer inflation rose slightly less than previous expectations, but the annual figure continues to rise. The annual PPI rose to 2.1% and the Core PPI rose to 2.4%. The NASDAQ and SNP500 end the day higher, but the Dow Jones continues to struggle. This morning earnings kick off with the banking sector including JP Morgan, BlackRock and Wells Fargo. All 3 stocks trade higher during pre-trading hours. The Euro trades lower against all currencies despite the ECB’s attempt to establish a hawkish tone. USA100 – The NASDAQ Climbs Higher, But Is the Growth Sustainable? The NASDAQ was the only index which did not witness a significant decline at the opening of the US session. In addition to this, the USA100 is the only index which is witnessing indications of a bullish market. The price has crossed onto a higher high breaking the resistance level at $18,269. The index is also trading above the 75-Bar EMA and at the 65.00 level on the RSI which signals buyers are controlling the market. However, a similar large bullish impulse wave was also formed on the 3rd and 5th of the month and was followed by a correction. Therefore, investors need to be cautious of a bearish breakout which may signal a correction back to the 75-bar EMA (18,165). The medium-term growth and its sustainability will depend on the upcoming earnings data.   Bond yields declined during this morning’s Asian session by 18 points, which is positive for the stock market. However, even with the decline, bond yields remain significantly higher than Monday’s opening yield. This week the 10-year bond yield rose from 4.424 to 4.558, which is a concern. If bond yields again start to rise, the stock market potentially can again become pressured. 25% of the NASDAQ ended the day lower and 75% higher. This gives a clear indication of the sentiment towards the technology sector and reassures traders about the price movement. Another positive was all of the top 12 influential stocks rose in value. Apple, NVIDIA and Broadcom saw the strongest gains, all rising more than 4%. Producer inflation read slightly lower than expectations, however, the index continues to rise. The Producer Price Index rose from 1.6% to 2.1% and the Core PPI from 2.1% to 2.4%. Therefore, it is not indicating inflation will become easier to tackle in the upcoming months. For this reason, investors should note that inflation and the monetary policy is still a risk and can trigger strong bearish impulse waves. EURUSD – The Euro Declines Against Major Currencies The European Central Bank is attempting to concentrate on the positive factors and give no indications of when the committee may opt to cut rates. For example, President Lagarde advises “sales figures” remain stable, but the issue remains they are stably low. Officials said the decline in prices generally confirms medium-term forecasts and is ensured by a decrease in the cost of food and goods. Most experts continue to believe that the first reduction in interest rates will happen in June, and there may be three or four in total during the year. Due to this, the Euro is declining against all currencies including the Pound, Yen and Swiss Franc. The US Dollar Index on the other hand trades 0.39% higher and is almost trading at a 23-week high. Due to this momentum, the price of the exchange continues to indicate a decline in favor of the US Dollar.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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