Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Actually my suggestion was meant to be taken ad litteram. I know that one of the main factors that prevent most of the pupils of this method from breaking the profitability barrier is that they don't pay enough attention to volume.

 

I avoid giving direct advice, which would be my interpretation of Spydertrader's posts in light of my experience, because I think that for each one of us the best way to crack this method is to start from the source.

 

At two months from the starting of this thread my best advice to those who care to take it is to re-read all, and only, Spydertrader's posts here, paying attention to each word, not skipping but also not adding (inventing) anything. Spydertrader chooses very carefully his words, and only when "you know" you fully understand what he meant, and what he didn't mean. One example that comes to mind: "The market defines a Traverse based on Volume."

 

The trouble with this is that volume also seems to be interpreted on the basis of channels. So we see increasing volume gaussians drawn while the volume bars are actually decreasing, and vice versa. Establishing the correct context seems a matter of judgment rather than rules.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The trouble with this is that volume also seems to be interpreted on the basis of channels. So we see increasing volume gaussians drawn while the volume bars are actually decreasing, and vice versa. Establishing the correct context seems a matter of judgment rather than rules.

 

The market (any market) exists as a result of a fundamental set of priciples. These priciples do not require interpretation of any kind. By creating chart boundaries in an effort to contain various trends which correspond to several levels of line thickness, a trader has the ability to monitor the market in an effort to note the exact point in time where / when one set of events has ended and the next set of events has commenced. This order of events exists irrespective of line thickness, fractal or time frame.

 

While I clearly understand why some have difficulty in observing the phenomena described in the previous paragraph, cnms2 provides some excellent advice as to a few of the reasons for traders experiencing difficulty. Moreover, cnms2's post (which preceded yours in time) appears to accurately have anticipated your statement / observation / conclusion prior to its posting and provided you with a method for adjusting your current (and incorrect) viewpoint with respect to judgement vs rules. In short, cnms2's post directly applies to you (along with many others, no doubt.

 

In the past, I have frequently provided direct answers to specific questions. However, more often than not, many felt my answers cryptic, murky, ambiguous or (worse yet) unresponsive. In order to remove any possible orientation to personality (rather than, people doing as they should and orient to facts) I have in this thread attempted to illustrate a process by which a trader can learn everything required to see that which exists and thereby differentiate that which does exist, from that which does not.

 

Unfortuantely, some still insist on a personality orientation.

 

However, for you specifically (and anyone else following along in general), you continue to miss a major component of Monitoring. Now, this doesn't make you a bad person, and questioning whether not the fundamental priciples I have described actually do exist, represents a very healthy excercise. But the time has come for you do determine why you have arrived at this specific conclusion of yours, and in determining the 'why' of the question, you'll no doubt, understand where (and how) your thinking went off the reservation causing you to reach an improper (one not supported by facts) conclusion.

 

Remember, just because something seems to be a certain way, does not mean that the something is a certain way.

 

HTH.

 

- Spydertrader

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The market (any market) exists as a result of a fundamental set of priciples. These priciples do not require interpretation of any kind......

 

Remember, just because something seems to be a certain way, does not mean that the something is a certain way.

 

HTH.

 

- Spydertrader

 

It is self evident from all of the charts being posted here that misunderstanding and interpretation are rife, even from those that attended the NY meeting. A walk through of just a few days of real charts with a detailed explanation of how and why gaussians are drawn on 3 fractal levels would be worth a thousand posts like the above……

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So we see increasing volume gaussians drawn while the volume bars are actually decreasing, and vice versa.

 

 

For drawing gaussians, I have come to believe it doesn't correspond so much to literally increasing/decreasing vol bars but rather the mode, aka dominance.

 

So for example you can have increasing black volume bars but have a non-dominant mode if the closing price can't break out of a lateral etc.

 

The other thing that sometimes helps is working backward, for example if I see a b2b or r2r, then I try to make sure that there was in fact some channel that price just Broke Out of. If it didn't, it's a big red flag that something might be incorrectly annotated. Also sometimes I get very confused and just look for a new b2b or r2r later on to "reset" and I start a new channel. Then I work backwards and try to fill in the previous parts I skipped, thought process something like "Assuming this bar is a point 1 of a new channel, it MUST also be an FTT of a previous channel of some fractal. If that is the FTT, let's work backwards some more and I am expecting to see dominant movement from the point 3 to FTT. Going back a few bars earlier, there should be a b2b/r2r to start this channel, let's look for that." etc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I agree with romanus and ehorn that the first leg up is done. The termination was quick and clean as opposed to the schlock we have been wading through (as 5 min ES traders) for the past few days.

 

An invalidated turning point (incompletion in the face of completion) is frequently due to a neglected IT or LT RTL which as best I can ascertain was the case here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Imho, your first down traverse is not valid as the RTL gets broken (10:15) on decreasing volume...

 

--

innersky

 

 

can you post an alternative?

 

TIA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
For drawing gaussians, I have come to believe it doesn't correspond so much to literally increasing/decreasing vol bars but rather the mode, aka dominance.

 

 

Yes, but if you're using dominance / non-dominance to determine the direction of the volume gaussians, what are you using to determine dominance / non-dominance?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes, but if you're using dominance / non-dominance to determine the direction of the volume gaussians, what are you using to determine dominance / non-dominance?

 

From my understanding of dominance/non-dominance. Always assume non-dominance until proven otherwise. Then;

 

1. A dominant bar must have Increasing Volume.

2. Price must close outside the range of the previous bar.

 

Exceptions: The first bar outside of a Lateral/Pennnant.

A Spike bar.

Bars within Lateral formations/Movement.

 

If anyone has any corrections or additions, please let me know.:cool:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I also thought 1310 was skinny b2b. LOL:doh:

Hi romanus and all friends who are in Price/Volume Relationship,

 

First of all, I assumed romanus's chart was accurately annotated. I have difficulty read the Market regarding Sequence completion and Dominance/Non-dominance:

1) Under what condition of context,10:25 Spike bar (non-dominance) on Increasing Volume is qulafied to complete the ES 5 min Down Traverse?

2) Why the 14:05 bar was not the point 2 of ES 5 min Up Traverse which started at 10:35?

3) Two scenarios regarding sequence completion of ES 5 min up traverse which started at 10:35--

a) 15:30 bar completed the ES 5 min Up Traverse because this bar on IBV was beyond the red tape (started at 15:05): and,15:35 bar was a continuation.

b) 15:35 bar completed the ES 5 min Up Traverse because the close of 15:30 bar was inside the 15:10 bar.

 

Comments and your thoughts are greatly appreciated. TIA

5aa70f2266253_romanus09_10_2009.thumb.gif.42888b530d2538587f408729621ada27.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First of all, I assumed romanus's chart was accurately annotated.

My 'direct' advise to you is not to assume it ever - I myself do not assume that it was correctly annotated. Some time tomorrow I may settle on this particular view until I am proven wrong attempting to apply the same though process to a different chart. The lines I drew on the chart represent a hypothesis that will be validated or invalidated when tomorrow comes. And even then some ambiguity may still remain as to what is actually a correct view.

 

 

1) Under what condition of context,10:25 Spike bar (non-dominance) on Increasing Volume is qulafied to complete the ES 5 min Down Traverse?

I had a lot of working theories regarding spikes, but none of them seemed to work consistently for me. The only one that seems consistent so far is that spike bars are different from non-spike bars. I suspect it wouldn't be helpful - sorry about that

 

2) Why the 14:05 bar was not the point 2 of ES 5 min Up Traverse which started at 10:35?

I can't tell you where the Point Two of the traverse is, may be tomorrow will add more data that would allow to make an argument in favor of one particular place. But I can explain why I drew lines of various thickness on the chart. My hypothesis is that point two of what I think is a traverse would be where medium B2B end.

 

3) Two scenarios regarding sequence completion of ES 5 min up traverse which started at 10:35--

a) 15:30 bar completed the ES 5 min Up Traverse because this bar on IBV was beyond the red tape (started at 15:05): and,15:35 bar was a continuation.Pretty much what I thought.

b) 15:35 bar completed the ES 5 min Up Traverse because the close of 15:30 bar was inside the 15:10 bar. I don't believe it is relevant

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I also thought 1310 was skinny b2b. LOL:doh:

 

Romanus,

 

when/how did you know to fan the blue up traverse? It looked like a completed sequence to me at 14:05.

 

--

thanks,

 

innersky

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • $AIZ Assurant stock nice breakout, from Stocks To Watch , see https://stockconsultant.com/?AIZ  
    • Date: 28th March 2024. The US Dollar Strengthens As Economists Believe The ECB Will Struggle To “Hold”. Early this morning, the Fed Governor advised “there is no rush to cut rates” and “the data within the upcoming months” will be vital. The US Dollar Index rises to a 1-month high. The value of the USD will largely be based on today’s data on economic growth, consumer sentiment and pending home sales. Dollar and index traders are closely monitoring tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index which analysts expect will read 0.3%. A higher inflation reading can potentially pressure stocks and support the Dollar. Strong declines in NVIDIA and Netflix stocks pressured the NASDAQ on Wednesday. Though, buyers entered late in the session to boost the overall price. EURUSD The latest comments from members of the Federal Reserve are supporting the US Dollar. The forward guidance between members of the Federal Reserve is mainly not aligned. The Chairman advises the Fed does not need much more proof for the regulator to feel comfortable reducing rates. Whereas the Fed Governor, Mr Waller, advises there is no rush, and he wants to see a few months of data before determining the next move. Therefore, the upcoming inflation and employment data will remain vital and could even push back rate hikes further. According to economists, the Federal Reserve will cut the interest rate on 3 occasions this year, but the timing of the first cut is less certain and may change depending on upcoming data. A positive factor for traders is that EURUSD exchange is not witnessing conflicting currencies. The US Dollar is trading 0.12% higher while the Euro is declining against most currencies. The Euro is trading 0.06% lower against the Pound and the Canadian Dollar and 0.16% lower against the Japanese Yen. Yesterday, the head of the Bank of Italy, Mr Cipollone, said that the authorities were confident that inflation would return to the target of 2.0% by mid–2025. He also supports the lower of interest rate and will use this as a basis for adjusting monetary policy. The Euro is generally under pressure as investors believe the European Central Bank will struggle to avoid cuts if the Fed decide to delay their adjustments. The US Dollar will be influenced by four major economic data releases. The US Final GDP, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales and Consumer Sentiment Index. If these read higher than expectations with the weekly unemployment claims dropping, the US Dollar is likely to witness further support. However, investors should note the main release will be tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index. Traders are expecting no major news for Europe and volatility levels may fall tomorrow as European markets are closed for Easter. Technical analysis currently points towards a continued downward trend. The price is trading below the neutral on the RSI and below the 75-Bar EMA. However, investors should note this will also be dependent on upcoming US data. USA100 The price of the USA100 was under pressure throughout the whole US session but was saved by an increased volume of buyers late in the session. However, a positive point is the components held onto their value. Even though the index fell in value, only 28% of the components declined. Investors will now turn their attention towards tomorrow’s PCE Price Index and the upcoming earnings season which will start in mid-April. The price is now trading slightly above the Moving Averages but slightly below the 50.00 on the RSI. Therefore, technical analysis remains at the “neutral” level and continues to indicate a larger price range. If today’s economic data is positive the stock market can witness confidence and support as this continues to indicate a soft landing. Though, if the data is too strong, it could also trigger a hawkish Fed which is known to be negative for the USA100. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • $IBKR Interactive Brokers stock narrow range breakout watch above 111.16 , see https://stockconsultant.com/?IBKR
    • $ISRG Intuitive Surgical stock narrow range breakout watch above 403.07 , see https://stockconsultant.com/?ISRG
    • $JETS ETF top of range breakout watch above 20.61 , see https://stockconsultant.com/?JETS
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.