Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

brownsfan019

A Look at a Stock Trader's Day

Recommended Posts

There are some great posts in the P/L thread, but it's easy for stuff to get lost.

 

This post from Thalestrader is a look at how a stock trader structures his day. I wanted to highlight this post b/c Thales constantly cranks out impressive numbers on the p/l thread.

 

I asked Thales how he sets up his day since the universe of stock is so large. His response was:

 

1) I trade S & P 500 stocks only, except for an occassional IBD 100 stock.

 

2) I monitor the 10-12 biggest gainers and losers on a percentage basis. I use the biggest gainers for long candidates and biggest losers for short candidates.

 

3) I select trades based upon support/resistance, chart patterns etc.

 

4) All trades are based on decisions made watching the 5 minute chart.

 

5) I use no indicators other than I do from time to time place a 20 EMA on the 5 minute chart. I will sometimes use pullbacks to the 20 EMA to buy/sell short.

 

So I am usually watching just 20 stocks, though I have the whole SP500 list on my screen. I simply scroll down through the top 10-12 gainers, and then I click on the %change column, and the watchlist reverses so that the biggest losers are now at the topof the list. I scroll down through the top 10-12 biggest losers. That is how I narrow the universe of stocks down.

 

When I am scrolling through the 10-24 stocks that comprise the biggest winners/losers of the moment, I am looking for potential breakouts from consolidations, flags/pennants, etc. As an example, I re-attached the CME chart from today. I was a buyer in the area highlighted within the green ellispse. As I always say, nothing fancy.

 

Also, you will see that I included my watchlist in the screenshot.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

10699d1242250283-trader-p-l-2009-5-13-2009-cme-sp500-list1.jpg

 

 

 

We don't have many stock traders here that post, but Thales was kind enough to give a look into his day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Simple, straightforward, and elegant in its own way. I like how Thales is very focused on a limited number of things. Good lessons for us all. Thanks for making this a separate post, BF.

 

Eiger

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No problem Eiger.

 

I also liked how he narrows his universe of stocks rather quickly and simply by looking for the stocks that are on the move. If I was to trade stocks again, that would be the approach I would take as well - look for the ones moving on the day and ride them as long as you can.

 

That is one major advantage of trading stocks vs. futures. With futures, you are 'stuck' in the market(s) that you watch whereas in stocks you can go where the action is. For example, there are plenty of days where the ES/NQ is doing nothing - almost flat-lining. During that same time, there's a good chance a handful of stocks are on the move for the day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That is one major advantage of trading stocks vs. futures. With futures, you are 'stuck' in the market(s) that you watch whereas in stocks you can go where the action is. For example, there are plenty of days where the ES/NQ is doing nothing - almost flat-lining. During that same time, there's a good chance a handful of stocks are on the move for the day.

 

Another advantage trading stocks has over futures is that it is often easier to maintain a strict risk profile as stocks offer more flexible position sizing than futures do.

 

A disadvatage is that profits from short term stock trades are taxed treated as short term gains for tax purposes, whereas futures trading profits receive the far more favorable 60/40 treatment.

 

Another disadvantage of stock trading over futures is that the SEC, in its infinite lack of wisdom, has barred the trader with a small capital from day trading stocks. Instead, the trader with limited capital has to trade e-mini's where the leverage on a $500 day trade margin is quite high.

 

Gone are the days when Wyckoff could advise one with a mere thousand dollars in risk capital to learn to read the tape trading in 10-50 share lots.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
....

Another disadvantage of stock trading over futures is that the SEC, in its infinite lack of wisdom, has barred the trader with a small capital from day trading stocks. Instead, the trader with limited capital has to trade e-mini's where the leverage on a $500 day trade margin is quite high.

 

Gone are the days when Wyckoff could advise one with a mere thousand dollars in risk capital to learn to read the tape trading in 10-50 share lots...

 

 

It's amazing how they view emini futures vs. stock. I guess they must be (over) worried about the corporate risk in the equities.

 

One way around the poor leverage is long, deep ITM options. This is a better solution for swing traders as you can day trade only a very limited number of option contracts at the moment. But more and more are becoming tradable on the intraday especially over the last 2-3 years. Something to keep an eye on.

 

Really nice work Thales - great to see the high quality thinking in your trading.

 

Eiger

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

so if i trade stocks by adding liquidity, is it less costly to trade stocks?

 

thanks

 

I'm sorry, but I am not at all sure that I understand what it is you are asking, so I cannot answer your question.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
hey Thales

 

i've never traded stocks before..

 

so if i trade stocks by adding liquidity, is it less costly to trade stocks?

 

thanks

 

If you're asking whether or not you get lower commissions for trading more volume, the answer is yes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I asked Thales how he sets up his day since the universe of stock is so large.

 

 

Hi Folks,

 

For anyone interested in freestockcharts.com, the software I use for intraday charting, I just received an email from them with the following link to some videos on how to use the software.

 

FreeStockCharts.com Videos

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stock trading looks interesting. But how do you protect against stocks getting halted? What if you are trading a top loser, it gets halted, and opens back up much higher than before? That could be very costly with a day trading position.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Abe - that is present in any instrument being traded. It's rare, but could happen whether in stocks or futures. I suppose if you are trading a big % loser on the day you might want to be nimble w/ your profits but not sure how often that occurs to be concerned about it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Stock trading looks interesting. But how do you protect against stocks getting halted? What if you are trading a top loser, it gets halted, and opens back up much higher than before? That could be very costly with a day trading position.

 

The scenario you suggest could indeed happen - you could be short a stock that is halted and re-opens higher, or you could be long a stock that is halted and re-opens lower. However, I think that so long as you are only shorting stocks moving down on higher than usual volume and only going long stocks that are moving up on heavy volume, then the chances of being on the wrong side such a surprise is remote. These stocks are moving in those directions for a reason, and that reason is that whatever news pending that is going to cause trading to be halted is already moving those stocks in the direction to which they will respond to the news once the rest of us become privy to it.

 

I have had two stocks halted on me over the years, and in each case I was on the right side of the market. In each case, the news pending that caused trading in these stocks to be temporarily suspended was likely already known by some of the larger institutions - hence these stocks were already being bought or sold heavily prior to being halted.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Abe - that is present in any instrument being traded. It's rare, but could happen whether in stocks or futures. I suppose if you are trading a big % loser on the day you might want to be nimble w/ your profits but not sure how often that occurs to be concerned about it.

 

But in index futures if your instrument gets halted you can hedge your position by trading in another similar instrument. This can't be done with a stock that is halted on stock specific news.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The scenario you suggest could indeed happen - you could be short a stock that is halted and re-opens higher, or you could be long a stock that is halted and re-opens lower. However, I think that so long as you are only shorting stocks moving down on higher than usual volume and only going long stocks that are moving up on heavy volume, then the chances of being on the wrong side such a surprise is remote. These stocks are moving in those directions for a reason, and that reason is that whatever news pending that is going to cause trading to be halted is already moving those stocks in the direction to which they will respond to the news once the rest of us become privy to it.

 

I have had two stocks halted on me over the years, and in each case I was on the right side of the market. In each case, the news pending that caused trading in these stocks to be temporarily suspended was likely already known by some of the larger institutions - hence these stocks were already being bought or sold heavily prior to being halted.

 

What about this scenario: A stock moves on heavy volume based on a false rumor, you place a day trade, but stock is halted, and you have no way to hedge your position. Then the real news comes out and stock reopens against you, triggering your stop, but at greater loss than you planned for. I wonder how bad could this loss be? Could it reopen 20% or more against you? That would be a huge loss if you have a day trade in place. Even 5% could be huge. Do you look into the fundamentals of a high volume move to see, for example, if it is based on a rumor or fact?

Edited by AbeSmith

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Do you look into the fundamentals of a high volume move to see, for example, if it is based on a rumor or fact?

 

No. I have no access to news during before and during trading hours.

 

It is just me, my charts, and my trading platform.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
But in index futures if your instrument gets halted you can hedge your position by trading in another similar instrument. This can't be done with a stock that is halted on stock specific news.

 

Why can't you do the same thing with a stock? You can hedge it with another stock in the same industry, or with a ETF. Bottom line, trading has risks. If you are not comfortable with the risks, then don't do it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Why can't you do the same thing with a stock? You can hedge it with another stock in the same industry, or with a ETF. Bottom line, trading has risks. If you are not comfortable with the risks, then don't do it.

 

You can't hedge a stock if the news that caused it to halt is stock specific. Then you are stuck with a day trading position on a halted stock, the stock reopens against your position, and you had no way to hedge against it. What if that stock reopens 5% against your day trading position that is designed to take less than 1% loss? Your stop loss will get filled at that 5% level because it gapped up against you, not at the .3% where you placed your stop loss. Could it reopen 10 or 20% or more against you?

 

That's why I asked thales if he knew how badly a halted stock can open against your position. Probably he doesn't know or is not saying for some reason. So yeah, ofcourse I'm not comfortable with trading stocks if I don't know this important information, which thales failed to answer, and you are not helping to answer, but instead giving me ultimatums that I should not trade stocks if I'm not comfortable with the risk. Well that's what I'm trying to find out. And I wonder why thales thanked your stupid ultimatum reply to me? Very fishy of thales.

Edited by AbeSmith

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You can't hedge a stock if the news that caused it to halt is stock specific. Then you are stuck with a day trading position on a halted stock, the stock reopens against your position, and you had no way to hedge against it. What if that stock reopens 5% against your day trading position that is designed to take less than 1% loss? Your stop loss will get filled at that 5% level because it gapped up against you, not at the .3% where you placed your stop loss. Could it reopen 10 or 20% or more against you?

 

That's why I asked thales if he knew how badly a halted stock can open against your position. Probably he doesn't know or is not saying for some reason. So yeah, ofcourse I'm not comfortable with trading stocks if I don't know this important information, which thales failed to answer, and you are not helping to answer, but instead giving me ultimatums that I should not trade stocks if I'm not comfortable with the risk. Well that's what I'm trying to find out. And I wonder why thales thanked your stupid ultimatum reply to me? Very fishy of thales.

 

You seriously expect anyone to be able to tell you exactly how much a stock can trade against you when halted? Really?

 

BTW, this was not an ultimatum; Just common sense...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What about this scenario: A stock moves on heavy volume based on a false rumor, you place a day trade, but stock is halted, and you have no way to hedge your position. Then the real news comes out and stock reopens against you, triggering your stop, but at greater loss than you planned for. I wonder how bad could this loss be? Could it reopen 20% or more against you? That would be a huge loss if you have a day trade in place. Even 5% could be huge. Do you look into the fundamentals of a high volume move to see, for example, if it is based on a rumor or fact?

 

The point is Abe is that you CAN hedge your position. Sevensa told you how - you can buy/short similar stocks or a market ETF or a market futures contract.

 

So let's say you are short RIMM and it halts. If you are panicked, you could go long the NQ, long a Nasdaq based ETF or a stock similar to RIMM. Is it perfect? Probably not but there are options to hedge the position.

 

Same thing if the CME goes down (which a few years ago was happening routinely it seemed) - you could hedge w/ an ETF, but it won't be perfect either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The point is Abe is that you CAN hedge your position. Sevensa told you how - you can buy/short similar stocks or a market ETF or a market futures contract.

 

So let's say you are short RIMM and it halts. If you are panicked, you could go long the NQ, long a Nasdaq based ETF or a stock similar to RIMM. Is it perfect? Probably not but there are options to hedge the position.

 

Same thing if the CME goes down (which a few years ago was happening routinely it seemed) - you could hedge w/ an ETF, but it won't be perfect either.

 

Nonsense. One reason people trade ETFs is to protect against company specific bad news. So they buy the whole sector incase the specific stock has some bad news. If youre trading that stock and it gets halted, the ETF will not be a good hedge.

 

But with index futures they indexes follow eachother very closely. If one index is down you can either buy the etf, or a similar index. That's a much better hedge than buying the sector of a stock that got halted on stock specific news.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lol .......... ..........

 

no, you cannot hedge company specific news.

but you can hedge...

if you chose not to hedge,

or if you decided that nothing is good enough as a hedge,

then do like s said... don't trade,

which is what you have already stated anyway...

that's the decision you have made,

and that's the decision i have made too...

great!

we are all in agreement

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You seriously expect anyone to be able to tell you exactly how much a stock can trade against you when halted? Really?

 

BTW, this was not an ultimatum; Just common sense...

 

No. YOu seriously believe I expect to know exactly how much a stock can trade against me when halted? All I asked was CAN it reopen 5%, 10%, or 20% against me? That is what I, and anyone with common sense, which you obviusly lack, should know before they risk their money on day trading stocks.

 

Yet the only replies I got so far from you is, don't risk your money on stocks if you're not comfortable with the risk. I'm trying to figure out the risk. How much CAN a halted stock reopen against me?

 

It is in bold now to help. But obiously you are just a troll and don't know the answer, so don't waist peoples time with your stupid replies. And thales clearly either doesn't know is avoiding the question.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Lol .......... ..........

 

no, you cannot hedge company specific news.

but you can hedge...

if you chose not to hedge,

or if you decided that nothing is good enough as a hedge,

then do like s said... don't trade,

which is what you have already stated anyway...

that's the decision you have made,

and that's the decision i have made too...

great!

we are all in agreement

 

I'd like to know how severly can a halted stock move against me when it reopens. And anyone with even half a brain should be wondering the same thing. Technically it can move 100% or more against you. That is not what I'm asking. I want to know, has anyone seen a halted stock reopen 5%, 10%, or 20%? What if you got a day trade on a stock, it gets halted, and reopens against you that much, that would be a huge loss if you only plan to lose .3% for example. And that is very scary thing about stocks so I'm trying to figure out how likely is that, and are there ways to protect against it.

Edited by AbeSmith

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'd like to know how severly can a halted stock move against me when it reopens. And anyone with even half a brain should be wondering the same thing. Technically it can move 100% or more against you. That is not what I'm asking. I want to know, has anyone seen a halted stock reopen 5%, 10%, or 20%? What if you got a day trade on a stock, it gets halted, and reopens against you that much, that would be a huge loss if you only plan to lose .3% for example. And that is very scary thing about stocks so I'm trying to figure out how likely is that, and are there ways to protect against it.

 

 

it can also re-open in your favor.

 

;-)>

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • also ... and barely on topic... Winners (always*) overpay. Buying the dips is a subscription to the belief that winners win by underpaying - when in actuality winners (inevitably/always*) win by overpaying... it’s amazing the percentage of traders who think winners win by underpaying ... “Winners (always*) overpay.” ...  One way to implement this ‘belief’ is to only reenter when prices have emphatically resumed the 'trend' .   (Fwiw, While “Winners (always*) overpay.” holds true in most endeavors (relationships, business, sports, etc...) - “Winners (always*) overpay.”  is especially true for auctions... continuous auctions included.)
    • re:  "Does it make sense to always buy the dips?  “Buy the dip.”  You hear this all the time in crypto investing trading speculation gambling. [zdo taking some liberties] It refers, of course, to buying more bitcoin (or digital assets) when they go down in price: when the price “dips.” Some people brag about “buying the dip," showing they know better than the crowd. Others “buy the dip” as an investment strategy: they’re getting a bargain. The problem is, buying the dip is a fallacy. You can’t buy the dip, because you can't see the total dip until much later. First, I’ll explain this in a way that will make it simple and obvious to you; then I’ll show you a better way of investing. You Only Know the Dip in Hindsight When people talk about “buying the dip,” what they’re really saying is, “I bought when the price was going down.” " ... example of a dip ... 
    • Date: 19th April 2024. Weekly Commodity Market Update: Oil Prices Correct and Supply Concerns Persist.   The ongoing developments in the Middle East sparked a wave of risk aversion and fueled supply concerns and investors headed for safety. Hopes for imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve diminish while attention is now turning towards the demand outlook. The Gold price hit a high of $2417.89 per ounce overnight. Sentiment has already calmed down again and bullion is trading at $2376.50 per ounce as haven flows ease. Oil prices initially moved higher as concern over escalating tensions with the WTI contract hit a session high of $85.508 per barrel overnight, before correcting to currently $81.45 per barrel. Oil Prices Under Pressure Amid Middle East Tensions Last week, commodity indexes showed little movement, with Oil prices undergoing a slight correction. Meanwhile, Gold reached yet another record high, mirroring the upward trend in cocoa prices. Once again today, USOil prices experienced a correction and has remained under pressure, retesting the 50-day EMA at $81.00 as we moving into the weekend. Hence, despite the Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran, sentiments stabilized following reports suggesting a measured response aimed at avoiding further escalation. Brent crude futures witnessed a more than 4% leap, driven by concerns over potential disruptions to oil supplies in the Middle East, only to subsequently erase all gains. Similarly with USOIL, UKOIL hovers just below $87 per barrel, marginally below Thursday’s closing figures. Nevertheless, volatility is expected to continue in the market as several potential risks loom:   Disruption to the Strait of Hormuz: The possibility of Iran disrupting navigation through the vital shipping lane, is still in play. The Strait of Hormuz serves as the Persian Gulf’s primary route to international waters, with approximately 21 million barrels of oil passing through daily. Recent events, including Iran’s seizure of an Israel-linked container ship, underscore the geopolitical sensitivity of the region. Tougher Sanctions on Iran: Analysts speculate that the US may impose stricter sanctions on Iranian oil exports or intensify enforcement of existing restrictions. With global oil consumption reaching 102 million barrels per day, Iran’s production of 3.3 million barrels remains significant. Recent actions targeting Venezuelan oil highlight the potential for increased pressure on Iranian exports. OPEC Output Increases: Despite the desire for higher prices, OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have constrained output in recent years. However, sustained crude prices above $100 per barrel could prompt concerns about demand and incentivize increased production. The OPEC may opt to boost oil output should tensions escalate further and prices surge. Ukraine Conflict: Amidst the focus on the Middle East, markets overlooking Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Potential retaliatory strikes by Kyiv on Russian oil infrastructure could impact exports, adding further complexity to global oil markets.   Technical Analysis USOIL is marking one of the steepest weekly declines witnessed this year after a brief period of consolidation. The breach below the pivotal support level of 84.00, coupled with the descent below the mid of the 4-month upchannel, signals a possible shift in market sentiment towards a bearish trend reversal. Adding to the bearish outlook are indications such as the downward slope in the RSI. However, the asset still hold above the 50-day EMA which coincides also with the mid of last year’s downleg, with key support zone at $80.00-$81.00. If it breaks this support zone, the focus may shift towards the 200-day EMA and 38.2% Fib. level at $77.60-$79.00. Conversely, a rejection of the $81 level and an upside potential could see the price returning back to $84.00. A break of the latter could trigger the attention back to the December’s resistance, situated around $86.60. A breakthrough above this level could ignite a stronger rally towards the $89.20-$90.00 zone. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past perfrmance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 18th April 2024. Market News – Stock markets benefit from Dollar correction. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Technical buying, bargain hunting, and risk aversion helped Treasuries rally and unwind recent losses. Yields dropped from the recent 2024 highs. Asian stock markets strengthened, as the US Dollar corrected in the wake of comments from Japan’s currency chief Masato Kanda, who said G7 countries continue to stress that excessive swings and disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were harmful for economies. US Stockpiles expanded to 10-month high. The data overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented recent attack. President Joe Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum.   Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex stumbled, falling to 105.66 at the end of the day from the intraday high of 106.48. It lost ground against most of its G10 peers. There wasn’t much on the calendar to provide new direction. USDJPY lows retesting the 154 bottom! NOT an intervention yet. BoJ/MoF USDJPY intervention happens when there is more than 100+ pip move in seconds, not 50 pips. USOIL slumped by 3% near $82, as US crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels last week, hitting the highest level since last June, while gauges of fuel demand declined. Gold strengthened as the dollar weakened and bullion is trading at $2378.44 per ounce. Market Trends:   Wall Street closed in the red after opening with small corrective gains. The NASDAQ underperformed, slumping -1.15%, with the S&P500 -0.58% lower, while the Dow lost -0.12. The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng gained more than 1. European and US futures are finding buyers. A gauge of global chip stocks and AI bellwether Nvidia Corp. have both fallen into a technical correction. The TMSC reported its first profit rise in a year, after strong AI demand revived growth at the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. The main chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. recorded a 9% rise in net income, beating estimates. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.