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dougr

Tape Reading Questions

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i have been studying the tape for sometime and this is basically how i trade. i mostly look at YM but i don't think it matters what you are trading. that is one of the reasons i like the tape. anyway, i have noticed things that happen during the day and cannot figure out why they happen. it would sure be nice to understand. i have come to the conclusion that all cannot be understood but just trade it anyway. i plot the tape on a chart and I highlight trades that occur above or below the ask. I believe these are big trades that occur all at once either a big buyer or seller or stops getting hit.

 

i have included some examples of what i see in my charts. i see a big buy price will go up a littel bit and then reverse. i see this over and over. big buys at the top and big sells near the bottom. i do not think they are stops but an thinking they are manipulation. the reason i do not think they are stops or panic is because the price direction has already changed by the time this happens. i am thinking that a big buyer will start selling to drive the price down. i also if wonder is these big guys buy on one index and then sell another to manipulate the price.

 

one problem with all of this is determining when they are really buying or if it is a fakeout.

 

the last chart u will see is a 5 tick chart on the NQ, there were three huge sells and the market stoops and goes up, why does this happen?

 

the other charts are single tick charts that show if trade uis at ask or bid and highlights those above i use this for identifying panic aggresive buying, speed and influence.

 

any help would be appreciated.

goodbuyhereto879.thumb.PNG.efb3b842fdc8423c7b1cbb0b8c843c75.PNG

goodbuyhereto934.thumb.PNG.971970ab2d1c38f26a007f8b86ac34f3.PNG

nicetypicalsellsignalgoesupto934thenreversesforalmost200points.thumb.PNG.c6dc79b7533b4c39192beba5bb6fcf5d.PNG

couldhaveboughtherefornicesmallgainbutonlygoesto6150andgoesdownmorebutthenreverseslatertogethigh.PNG.ec7a111cc3b0538b45fca3cd4ddffe5a.PNG

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Hi dougr,

 

The first thing that popped in my head is that you are using a bid/ask indicator. A spike at the bid may indicate selling on the indicator... but this could simply mean that a big player was accumulating a huge line on the way down as people were panicking and hitting the bid. I personally read the tape through the time & sales and an order ticker available on my platform.

 

I would like to see if possible the actual T&S at this levels you mention. How big are the lots? How did price and tape react once these lots appeared? It could of been a ton of small lots hitting the bid (small traders panicking) while a big player was holding the bid.

 

Below is an example of my tape. (filtered out to 20 lots or more)

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=8557&stc=1&d=1226279285

ordertickertape.thumb.jpg.d6c8047c1e4bb19c6e46d5b4f435f2d7.jpg

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what my charts show are only the volume of the actual trade, hence the time and sales, they are not on my chart as I have made the scale to be plus or minus 30 for the YM. I just know this, when a larger trade occurs then it will show up as a number. i have included another example from the NQ. As you can see there was one huge sell at the top here, i make comments in the file title to describe what happened after this point. there are actual times and sales. the same scale here is plus or minus 30 in the bottom window. If the volume was greater than 30 i have a print of the actual volume. the small red and green lines were the actual bid and ask price at that trade, if the volume is red the trade occurred at the bid, if green at the ask. if the trades are highlighted brown or blue this was above the bid or ask.

 

your chart is very interesting, i do not even look at bid and ask numbers, that is way to much information. i have trouble just keeping up with the time and sales. i am going to study what u sent though and see if it would work with my trading. is that your own prgram that gives you that information?

goodsellherebutgoesdownsharpthenpullsrightbacktothislevelandthendropsagain.thumb.PNG.62a1fd83bb39e06254847f10c1734af3.PNG

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Hi dougr,

 

I must say I am not familiar with your bid/ask indicator. I have interpreting the information generated from it. I would prefer to see the actual T&S during that particular time to understand what the tape is telling me. My apologies on this.

 

Also keep in mind that big traders are not always right. They lose some and win some. I talk to many institutional traders and there are days when they buy tops and sell bottoms. Its just part of the game.

 

The program I am using is called Order Ticker and available from CQG. Its more of an institutional software.

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thanks for your help, i knew this would not be easy to explain. i do not have the actual time and sales prints but the chart i have posted is actually the time and sales just in a graphical form.

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thanks again for the posts, they are very interesting, however i guess this information is not really accessible to me because I do not have CQG. I understand what you are showing though. I have looked at the bid and ask in the past but it was way too much information for me to keep track of like your are showing. I really just look at the trades. That is all I need to get in on a trade.

 

Just curious, I looked at CQG website and found your tool. What does that software cost?

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thanks again for the posts, they are very interesting, however i guess this information is not really accessible to me because I do not have CQG. I understand what you are showing though. I have looked at the bid and ask in the past but it was way too much information for me to keep track of like your are showing. I really just look at the trades. That is all I need to get in on a trade.

 

Just curious, I looked at CQG website and found your tool. What does that software cost?

 

pretty steep... over $1,000 per month. Best to have a firm pay for the fees.

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i think it is sometimes but at other times it seems to unnatural, it also has already hit a high by a couple points and then comes back, then you will see a big buy all at once, then it will go down. I also see it when the price is looking up there will be a big sell, i have included an example. It really makes no sense, the only explanation I can try to give it is people just give up all at one time and buy or they think it is going up more and buy right at the top. The other thing I have wondered if big traders will buy(or sell) and then sell(or buy) back causing the market to turn or helping it to move. I also see this happen a lot where you will see big buys near a top the market goes up a little more and then reverses, that seems to be the most prevalent pattern. This also happens a lot in teh afternoon but really occurs all day.

 

i have given two examples of this from YM tape, in the second pic u see 2 clumps of bars highlighted, these are all trades that occurred below the bid price, therefore they occurred all at once. I also have examples from NQ and ES.

 

first of all this is a graphical representation of time and sales, each trade and volume, the volume is at the bottom but the scales is -30 to 30, if i get a contract higher than 30 it will print the number. in the price section above you can see small thin lines red or gren, this is the ask or bid price.

gooduyhereto843butcomesbackto80010minuteslaterthengoesupto880.thumb.PNG.6d045d3a6417617aa22f3f42d7a39ccb.PNG

goodbuyhereto879.thumb.PNG.46b63fd4810c234df44ead55d6af5918.PNG

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Dougr, I am glad you brought this up because I have been thinking the exact same thing. I watch the T&S on my sierra charting s/w with a data feed from Interactive Brokers.

 

But, let me back up a second here. I have been a member of the lab forum for while now, but have kept my mouth shut because I am wannabe trader. However, having seen you mention this, I realize that this phenomena is not just a mis-interpretation because I am inexperienced.

 

I trade the premarket ES and the EUR between 7-9 Eastern everyday before I start my office job. And I noticed this pattern too. Where you would see big block trades on the ask, and the price would go down (and the other way to when big hits on bid).

 

So, after losing money a few times trying to follow what I believed were the big boys, I just simply started ignoring the big trades.

 

However, that hasn't stopped me from trying to learn to read tape to support my entries/exits.

 

My main style is looking for confluence of MP, Pivot points, Fibs, and Dynamic Trendlines, but I'm trying to use the Tape as a means of supporting my decission to avoid the fake-outs.

 

- Steve

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Hi Steve, thanks for sharing. It would be valuable if one of you guys can record this sometime and post it here for others to watch. Though I do see this happen once in a while it is usually not the case so would like to see it on the markets you guys currently trade.

 

Ive seen 500+ lot traders come into the Nikkei and try to push it around just to have it reverse on them. I can see them liquidating right away but that is still a $150k - $200k loss in matter of seconds. Its probably bank traders... at the previous firm I traded for we would come in with 500 lots into the close to create artificial momentum and then get out at +2 ticks. So this behavior is quite common.

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i have included some examples of what i see in my charts. i see a big buy price will go up a littel bit and then reverse. i see this over and over. big buys at the top and big sells near the bottom.

 

its actually interesting too if you look at a market delta chart, because on almost all moves all the time the top of the move is met with very strong positive delta and very negative delta near the bottom...this somewhat negates the usefullness of the market delta chart but thats a tangent.

One thing to keep in mind is that I'm not sure how much importance should be given to above or below the bid/offer. I kind of wonder if that is simply our software/datafeeds not keeping up with the millisecond execution speed of the algo arbitrage guys. I say that because usually when I see that on the tape its at the break of a critical level when you see the "flood" on the tape.

For me, I didn't get much from the tape until I started to ignore the individual tick volume size and view the tape more in spirts of trades going off at the bid, trades going off at the offer and how that is moving price. Thats why I don't understand putting a filter on the tape. All your seeing then is the large discretionary guys like what James was doing at the bank but your losing all the algo guys with insanely fast execution who can print 50 1 lots with a fragmention algorithm in a few seconds instead of printing a 50 lot trade.

I'm still pretty new as far as the tape not looking like noise but a few patterns I look for are:

a. the poor sap who got sold the bottom/bought the top print of a move..depending on how fast the tape is moving this print is usually put up sequentially if its more than one print, bang bang bang. You can even see this sometimes on SPY(SPY to me is great to practice on because its so insanely fast, which I assume is because its such an arbitraged instrument)

If you see that, then what I'm looking for is I don't want to see the opposite side of the bounce bid/offer wise being hit with a stream of prints but not moving price very far away from the "sap" prints. To me that says that although there are participants that want to do business not far away from the "sap", they may very well be the next level down of "fools" if they can't move price much and are just causing a distribution instead of an accumulation that actually moves price away from the "sap".

b. rejection of the breakout, pullback, the same kind of distribution as in A on the opposite side of the bid/offer with price stalling. Currently, if I see that I'm going to take it and front run the breakout, if that is a good idea or not I can't really say yet without more trades. So then if price moves back to the breakout level, what I'm looking for on the tape is for a breach of the prior "sap" print, how it is transacted doesn't matter in my current thinking.

Usually, from my experience when that happens if your clicking a mouse you won't have time to do much before you get the "blast" of prints on the tape and probly a price move..Thats usually when I see prints above/below the bid/offer..Since if I'm in at this point I've already front ran the breakout, I'm gone at this point. I'm sure in time I'll hone some patterns on the tape as far as what to look for to probly add to my position but I haven't a clue there.

To me what is interesting about that pattern is someone who is using buy/sell stops to play a breakout is buying/selling the otherside of my trade :)

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One more snapshot of the tape.... good scalpers tool.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=8559&stc=1&d=1226282323

 

Another one at the end of the morning session:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=8560&stc=1&d=1226282763

 

any chance you could do a video of this thing and show it moving in real time?

I remember running across the picture on CQG website awhile back, but I kind of assume static pictures don't quite do it justice. Its basically the tape with a book level component right?

 

Also,you ever mess around with these delta kind of charts?

IntegratedClient.jpg

 

Also note the above chart is what I ment at the start of that last post as far as postive/negative delta on the opposite side of the move. Maybe a move is a bad word but that chart would almost be more usefull of the deltas were flipped.

Why that is...I haven't a clue besides for the fact that trading is a damn hard.

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Sure Ill make one tonight if I have time on the ES. Nikkei is preferred but cant record during Tokyo hours as I do not work from home. The delta chart is known as Tradeflow.... separating the percentage at the bid vs ask per bar. It can be plotted as a tick chart or minute chart. Imo... its the same as market delta but a visual version. I requested it here on TL for Tradestation and Blu-Ray once again created it. This is located here.

 

I use it personally in combination with regaular volume histograms. I tend to look for high volume at resistance in combination with tradeflow to see more contracts at the bid. (or vice versa at support) See snapshot below:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=8571&stc=1&d=1226385583

delta.jpg.a824ca2a73937dc62f3afb41e689cffe.jpg

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OK James, I don't know if this is a good enough example. But this is just the kind of example that I used to fall for all the time when I first started incorporating tape reading into my trades.

 

This is chart of the ESZ8 at about 8:30 EST. See how at 8:28:56 there was a splash of large-lot trades hitting the bid? Well, in the past, I would have shorted that with a market order and sat back to dream of the profits soon to come my way. But, after having those not work out several times, obviously I dont' do that anymore.

 

Now, notice on my 30min chart (yes, I read 30mins - I'm weird that way), that price just kinda sat there? infact what you don't see is that later the price just kept going up (to 907 as I write at 8:44)

 

OK, maybe this is not the best example, but like Doug, I do see this phenomena occur often enough to not want to try to tag-along.

 

- Steve

example_of_tape_nonsense.jpg.f7cb9f636469f0cf3b1f2a0adc57b9b6.jpg

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Pretty fascinating. I like how they match changes to show bids being moved down. I wonder if there matching algorithm has tolerances on size to link. Looks like a great scalping tool. The only thing is you don't really get a feel for price changes without looking at the numbers (or chart).

 

I guess the little triangles might be something to do with that?

 

I still think a graphical display perhaps similar to the old paddle game breakout showing orders being chewed or pulled might be a good way of assimilating this type of data.

 

Do you think pulled limits are more significant than hit limits in determining short term price movement?

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Hi Blowfish,

 

Yes, the green up arrows are indicating the bid/ask moving up a level while the red arrows are indicating the bid/ask moving down a level. Ive only recently started using this tool so will need to observe a bit more... but so far useful information includes big lots being canceled or shifted downwards/upwards.

 

Do you think pulled limits are more significant than hit limits in determining short term price movement?

 

I think the pulled limits are quite fascinating to watch... sometimes they are bots trying to manipulate the markets. Happens often premarket when the markets are still thin. However, I think both information are equally important if you are a tape reader. Traditional tape only get you information of hit limits... with this tool one can see order adjustment which imo is quite powerful.

 

The fact is that even the biggest trader will always end up taking some heat. Whats interesting on the tape on a rally for example; is to watch for big traders add some selling pressure then lots dry up as price lifts. Alot of these bank traders tend to use extremely wide stops so they can handle a bit of heat.

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that is ingenius..only a sucker would trade off time and sales after watching that.

 

You need to watch for levels you trade off in order to trade with the tape. I have seen some insane scalpers trade strictly off the tape and nothing else... (this guy was drinking 20 red bulls a day!! and literally shaking while trading. And yes, he was very profitable)

 

so it is possible but not for everyone. I personally would not trade off the time and sales alone... I cant scalp, tried it and was never that good at it. But in thick markets like the Nikkei, the ability to read the tape is extremely helpful in spotting when institutional are likely to jump in. Especially around psych levels of 00.. usually you can spot big lots appearing a tick or 2 above these 00 levels. what happens is that the suckers think there is a breakout and they buy as soon as price breaks the 00 levels upwards... just to have a few 300+ lots pound the bid. Its quite fascinating to watch imo.

 

So one strategy I have is to watch for rejection at levels like 8210 - 8220, 8310 - 8320, 8410 - 8420. (big lots hitting the bid) Just by tape you can grab 3-5 ticks off the Nikkei doing this.

 

I also know a trader who makes a living taking 1 tick off the Nikkei everyday using a similar strategy. Trades in 20 lots... roughly $2k daily. His winning percentage is around 90%.

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I would like to discuss tape reading and automated identification with anyone who is intersted in collaborating on development of particular algorithms outside of the traditional realm of exsiitng trade analytic environments.

 

The anticpated signals can then be imported into any environemnt you choose.

 

Tape reading and market making techniques do work, however to create an all inclusive method, one is best served to support these requiremnts within a properly designed historical databse & incorporate real time data comparisons.

 

Currently if you or anyone is interested in collaborating on creating such database or at least to provide sufficient tick data and workilable with the design of the backtesting, I am available to participate in such designs with which I can definitely contribute as much time as it takes. I look forward to hearing form anyone / anytime

Rgds

Davla

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That Order ticker looks like a smart way to visualize your order flow.

 

I'm wondering whether it is possible to have access to the order book composure? so if there is 5000 bid sitting @ 1st or 2nd level, I would like to know if that 5000 lot is composed of 10 separate orders, 50, or if its just one person.

 

Anyone know?

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    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
    • Date: 16th April 2024. Market News – Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows. Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected retail sales eliciting a broad sell off in the markets. Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a 50-50 chance. Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week’s declines amid the rise in yields. Investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation. There’s growing anxiety over earnings even after a big beat from Goldman Sachs. UK labor market data was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated – The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE. China grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon. Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook. Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Financial Markets Performance:   The US Dollar rallied to 106.19 after testing 106.25, gaining against JPY and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level. Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed. USOIL is flat at $85 per barrel. Market Trends:   Breaks of key technical levels exacerbated the sell off. Tech was the big loser with the NASDAQ plunging -1.79% to 15,885 while the S&P500 dropped -1.20% to 5061, with the Dow sliding -0.65% to 37,735. The S&P had the biggest 2-day sell off since March 2023. Nikkei and ASX lost -1.9% and -1.8% respectively, and the Hang Seng is down -2.1%. European bourses are down more than -1% and US futures are also in the red. CTA selling tsunami: “Just a few points lower CTAs will for the first time this year start selling in size, to add insult to injury, we are breaking major trend-lines in equities and the gamma stabilizer is totally gone.” Short term CTA threshold levels are kicking in big time according to GS. Medium term is 4873 (most important) while the long term level is at 4605. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 15th April 2024. Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict. However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict. New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70. The Yen dip against USD to 153.85. USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce. Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180. Market Trends:   Asian stock markets traded mixed, but European and US futures are slightly higher after a tough session on Friday and yields have picked up. Mainland China bourses outperformed overnight, after Beijing offered renewed regulatory support. The PBOC meanwhile left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged, while once again draining funds from the system. Nikkei slipped 1% to 39,114.19. On Friday, NASDAQ slumped -1.62% to 16,175, unwinding most of Thursday’s 1.68% jump to a new all-time high at 16,442. The S&P500 fell -1.46% and the Dow dropped 1.24%. Declines were broadbased with all 11 sectors of the S&P finishing in the red. JPMorgan Chase sank 6.5% despite reporting stronger profit in Q1. The nation’s largest bank gave a forecast for a key source of income this year that fell below Wall Street’s estimate, calling for only modest growth. Apple shipments drop by 10% in Q1. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • The morning of my last post I happened to glance over to the side and saw “...angst over the FOMC’s rate trajectory triggered a flight to safety, hence boosting the haven demand. “   http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/21621-hfmarkets-hfmcom-market-analysis-services/page/17/?tab=comments#comment-228522   I reacted, but didn’t take time to  respond then... will now --- HFBlogNews, I don’t know if you are simply aggregating the chosen narratives for the day or if it’s your own reporting... either way - “flight to safety”????  haven ?????  Re: “safety  - ”Those ‘solid rocks’ are getting so fragile a hit from a dandelion blowball might shatter them... like now nobody wants to buy longer term new issues at these rates...yet the financial media still follows the scripts... The imagery they pound day in and day out makes it look like the Fed knows what they’re doing to help ‘us’... They do know what they’re doing - but it certainly is not to help ‘us’... and it is not to ‘control’ inflation... And at some point in the not too distant future, the interest due will eat a huge portion of the ‘revenue’ Re: “haven” The defaults are coming ...  The US will not be the first to default... but it will certainly not be the very last to default !! ...Enough casual anti-white racism for the day  ... just sayin’
    • Date: 12th April 2024. Producer Inflation On The Rise, But Will Earnings Hold Demand Steady?     Producer inflation rose slightly less than previous expectations, but the annual figure continues to rise. The annual PPI rose to 2.1% and the Core PPI rose to 2.4%. The NASDAQ and SNP500 end the day higher, but the Dow Jones continues to struggle. This morning earnings kick off with the banking sector including JP Morgan, BlackRock and Wells Fargo. All 3 stocks trade higher during pre-trading hours. The Euro trades lower against all currencies despite the ECB’s attempt to establish a hawkish tone. USA100 – The NASDAQ Climbs Higher, But Is the Growth Sustainable? The NASDAQ was the only index which did not witness a significant decline at the opening of the US session. In addition to this, the USA100 is the only index which is witnessing indications of a bullish market. The price has crossed onto a higher high breaking the resistance level at $18,269. The index is also trading above the 75-Bar EMA and at the 65.00 level on the RSI which signals buyers are controlling the market. However, a similar large bullish impulse wave was also formed on the 3rd and 5th of the month and was followed by a correction. Therefore, investors need to be cautious of a bearish breakout which may signal a correction back to the 75-bar EMA (18,165). The medium-term growth and its sustainability will depend on the upcoming earnings data.   Bond yields declined during this morning’s Asian session by 18 points, which is positive for the stock market. However, even with the decline, bond yields remain significantly higher than Monday’s opening yield. This week the 10-year bond yield rose from 4.424 to 4.558, which is a concern. If bond yields again start to rise, the stock market potentially can again become pressured. 25% of the NASDAQ ended the day lower and 75% higher. This gives a clear indication of the sentiment towards the technology sector and reassures traders about the price movement. Another positive was all of the top 12 influential stocks rose in value. Apple, NVIDIA and Broadcom saw the strongest gains, all rising more than 4%. Producer inflation read slightly lower than expectations, however, the index continues to rise. The Producer Price Index rose from 1.6% to 2.1% and the Core PPI from 2.1% to 2.4%. Therefore, it is not indicating inflation will become easier to tackle in the upcoming months. For this reason, investors should note that inflation and the monetary policy is still a risk and can trigger strong bearish impulse waves. EURUSD – The Euro Declines Against Major Currencies The European Central Bank is attempting to concentrate on the positive factors and give no indications of when the committee may opt to cut rates. For example, President Lagarde advises “sales figures” remain stable, but the issue remains they are stably low. Officials said the decline in prices generally confirms medium-term forecasts and is ensured by a decrease in the cost of food and goods. Most experts continue to believe that the first reduction in interest rates will happen in June, and there may be three or four in total during the year. Due to this, the Euro is declining against all currencies including the Pound, Yen and Swiss Franc. The US Dollar Index on the other hand trades 0.39% higher and is almost trading at a 23-week high. Due to this momentum, the price of the exchange continues to indicate a decline in favor of the US Dollar.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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