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USDJPY Discussions

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Concerns over the Thailand political crisis, as signaled by BoJ's recent release of minutes, became fuel for UJ. A break of 102.30 can be followed by 102.40, 102.50 and 102.65. On the downside, 102.20 and 102 level become renewed supports.

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This consolidation period looks encouraging for a move up. I kind of jumped the gun but I am willing to wait. I think it will at least retest the 102.67-102.75 price levels

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USDJPY pull-back could actually extend till 101.80-102.00, but the pair seems to have broken down from its recent trading range.

Would utilise this pull-back to initiate fresh short for initial downfall till 101.00-100.80 area and eventually to sub-100.00 psychological mark.

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USDJPY showing clear signs of a break-down, but the same would be confirmed it breaks below the horizontal line support of the triangular pattern near 101.00-100.80.

USDJPY then could be vulnerable to continue drifting lower below 100.00 psychological mark.

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Yen Rises to 5-Month High Versus Euro on Haven Bid

The yen strengthened to a five-month high against the euro after reports a Malaysian jet carrying 295 people was shot down over eastern Ukraine near its border with Russia, boosting haven assets.

 

The ruble weakened the most in four months against the dollar as the U.S. and European Union imposed extra sanctions on Russia yesterday over the Ukraine conflict. A gauge of the dollar dropped from a four-week high as a report showed U.S. housing starts fell to a nine-month low. Japan’s currency gained versus all of its 31 major peers as U.S. stocks fell with European and Asian shares and Treasuries rose.

 

“It certainly looked like we were going to have a little bit of a pullback, a little bit of a paring of risk, and it seems that has continued,” said Fabian Eliasson in foreign-exchange sales at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. in New York. “There’s been a little bit of yen buying and I would attribute that to a certain degree to a risk-off type of trade.”

 

The yen gained 0.4 percent to 137.01 per euro at 2:17 p.m. in New York after reaching 136.92, the strongest level since Feb. 6. Japan’s currency strengthened 0.4 percent to 101.30 per dollar. The dollar was little changed at $1.3523 per euro.

 

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (SPX), which tracks the currency against 10 major counterparts, was little changed at 1,009.59 after climbing to 1,010.67 yesterday, the highest since June 20.

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"TOKYO -- The Finance Ministry announced July 4 a reshuffle of its senior officials. Tatsuo Yamasaki, who was involved in a large yen-selling intervention, was named vice minister of finance for international affairs. Some market experts say Yamasaki's appointment shows the government intends to fight yen appreciation.

usdjpy-d1-excel-markets-2.png.1666edd1fa355090fc6200cc3dd6a027.png

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Japanese Yen Falls To Lowest Since 2008,

 

It was a banner week for the USD bulls as they pushed the euro (EURUSD, FXE, UUD, UDN) to the lowest level versus the USD since July 2013, and the lowest in the yen versus the USD since September 2008. It was euro and yen weakness that widened the spreads. Since the market was loaded with spec shorts, it has been a good week for those correctly positioned. Going forward, this means we are headed for trading sessions with increasing volatility. From personal experience, I know when traders have more equity in their accounts, they trade more.

 

The euro and the yen were both helped lower by government action to expand their respective money supplies. For the EU, this belated growth in the money supply is one of the factors which is sending the EU back toward another recession, but the ECB President Draghi's policies cannot be blamed. The US, UK and Japan were are all actively increasing the money supplies but this policy was opposed by Germany. As we have mentioned before, the German word schuld has two meanings, debt and guilt. This might explain the German reluctance to take on new debt. Now the entire EU is paying the price with slow or no growth and record high unemployment.

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A good GDP print next week for the US will send this pair to 110+.

 

110+ is inevitable anyways.

 

Agree. Look at GBP/JPY... bounced off 17900 today. But I think a lot of folks holding their breath over Scotland vote.

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