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Crash Monday? Perhaps, but Unlikely.

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"Friday's decline of 3.24% for the Dow was the first -3% day since February 27th, 2007, and just the third of the bull market (if it still is one) that started in October of 2002.

 

Below we highlight all -3% days for the Dow Jones Industrial Average post WWII. The average change on the day following the 60 prior occurrences has been 0.11%, while the average change over the next week has been 0.28%. Going back 10 years, the average performance on the next day has been 0.63%." (Bespoke Investment Group)

 

"With the S&P 500 currently down 1.88%, the index is set to have been up more than 1.5% yesterday and down more than 1.5% today. Over the last 50 years, this has happened just 30 other times. The average change following these 2-day whirlwinds has been 0.14% on the following day and 0.56% over the following week. During the current bull market (since 10/9/02), the occurrence has happened 5 times, and the index has been up more than 1.2% the next day every time for an average change of 2.17%. "

 

Source: http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/

 

This isn't a prediction - I'm not going to be long and turning my computer off, but I like to keep it in perspective.

 

On the otherside of the coin, if we do sell off, it will hold even greater significance.

 

Have fun :roll eyes:

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"Friday's decline of 3.24% for the Dow was the first -3% day since February 27th, 2007, and just the third of the bull market (if it still is one) that started in October of 2002.

 

Below we highlight all -3% days for the Dow Jones Industrial Average post WWII. The average change on the day following the 60 prior occurrences has been 0.11%, while the average change over the next week has been 0.28%. Going back 10 years, the average performance on the next day has been 0.63%." (Bespoke Investment Group)

 

"With the S&P 500 currently down 1.88%, the index is set to have been up more than 1.5% yesterday and down more than 1.5% today. Over the last 50 years, this has happened just 30 other times. The average change following these 2-day whirlwinds has been 0.14% on the following day and 0.56% over the following week. During the current bull market (since 10/9/02), the occurrence has happened 5 times, and the index has been up more than 1.2% the next day every time for an average change of 2.17%. "

 

Source: http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/

 

This isn't a prediction - I'm not going to be long and turning my computer off, but I like to keep it in perspective.

 

On the otherside of the coin, if we do sell off, it will hold even greater significance.

 

Have fun :roll eyes:

 

Interesting statistics, but as each moment in time is ultimately unique, I doubt you could actually benefit from this knowledge somehow :)

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It depends how you trade. Some people find it useful. A fair wack of quant, spreading, etc. is based around looking at the behaviour of a given set of variables (e.g. a market in relation to movement, or another market) in the past, and what that implies for the future.

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It depends how you trade. Some people find it useful. A fair wack of quant, spreading, etc. is based around looking at the behaviour of a given set of variables (e.g. a market in relation to movement, or another market) in the past, and what that implies for the future.

 

I should've formulated my response differently.

 

I agree with what you're saying, but what I meant to say is that none of this translates into a concrete entry or exit :) Not that is has to...

 

Brett Steenbarger in his books often tells us a bit about his strategy and where goes back in history to compare with a number of very similar trading days to see what happened next in those cases.

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I should've formulated my response differently.

 

I agree with what you're saying, but what I meant to say is that none of this translates into a concrete entry or exit :) Not that is has to...

 

Brett Steenbarger in his books often tells us a bit about his strategy and where goes back in history to compare with a number of very similar trading days to see what happened next in those cases.

 

Exactly - I understood what you were referring to. :thumbs up:

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End of the month, 2nd quarter, 1st half of the year.

 

I think I heard, barring a spectacular rally, the month of June is looking to be 50+ year worst performance.

 

Sell in May and ........ :)

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